2024 NHK Trophy: Men's Thoughts?

[JustSomeGuy]

It's unfortunate that with 4th place he is in the 'mathematicaly impossible' group for the final Qs.

Just an FYI but Torgashev isn't yet in the "mathematically impossible" group for qualifiers. There have been GPF qualifiers with 20 points before, in the 2019-2020 season no less, so not in the distant past but during a period of skating which you seem to quite heavily idolise (it was the first season that Trusova, Scherbakova and Kostornaia were skating senior). Men's has always been messy on the ordinals, and depending on how the chips fall at the next 2 events, Torgs could sneak in as a 6th place qualifier.

 

[skim1001]

Just an FYI but Torgashev isn't yet in the "mathematically impossible" group for qualifiers. There have been GPF qualifiers with 20 points before, in the 2019-2020 season no less, so not in the distant past but during a period of skating which you seem to quite heavily idolise (it was the first season that Trusova, Scherbakova and Kostornaia were skating senior). Men's has always been messy on the ordinals, and depending on how the chips fall at the next 2 events, Torgs could sneak in as a 6th place qualifier.

not impossible but highly unlikely. Jin Boyang who qualified with 20 pts had a gold that helped with the tie break.

 

[JustSomeGuy]

not impossible but highly unlikely. Jin Boyang who qualified with 20 pts had a gold that helped with the tie break.

While that is true, the tiebreak was against 2 other men with 20 points but from a 2nd and a 5th, and if Jin had scored one place lower at either of his events it would have simply meant another man with 20 points (Specifically Nam Nguyen) getting in.

I would say Torgs getting in is unlikely, but of the men competing next week in Finlandia, only 6 are able to move above him in the standings, and Tomono needs at least a 2nd to do so (in which case he beats Torgs on tiebreaker) and Yamamoto needs at least a 3rd and a higher combined total score whereas Cha needs at least a 4th with a higher combined total score in a pretty packed field. I don't think that Torgs will make the final, but I do think that he will make the reserve list and I don't think he's going to be 100% eliminated until CoC (and even then, of the 7 men who could move above him at CoC, Memola would need a win, Rizzo and Vasilieves would both need a 2nd place or higher, and Shaidorov and Egadze would each need at least a 3rd place and higher combined total score, so there is a serious limit on how many of them could moved above Torgs as they'dbe locking each other out)

 

[lariko]

Just an FYI but Torgashev isn't yet in the "mathematically impossible" group for qualifiers. There have been GPF qualifiers with 20 points before, in the 2019-2020 season no less, so not in the distant past but during a period of skating which you seem to quite heavily idolise (it was the first season that Trusova, Scherbakova and Kostornaia were skating senior). Men's has always been messy on the ordinals, and depending on how the chips fall at the next 2 events, Torgs could sneak in as a 6th place qualifier.

I never count on someone bombing in favor of someone I root for, because karma. Plus, I heavily root for 5/6 who are ahead of him, and the sixth has gold.

 

[JustSomeGuy]

I never count on someone bombing in favor of someone I root for, because karma. Plus, I heavily root for 5/6 who are ahead of him, and the sixth has gold.

Potentially people wouldn't need to bomb. Or at least, not more than one person. Selevko, Britschgi, Pulkinen and even Samiolov could skate the lights out in Finland which could take Tomono out of contention and a personal best or close to it for Pulkinen could take Yamamoto, Cha and even Grassl off the podium if they all scored the same as they did in their first assignment, which would take Yamamoto out of contention and possibly Cha too if Yamamoto gets 4th above Cha (or, you know, all of Aymoz, Grassl and Kagayama skate well) but below a personal best scoring Pulkinen, which takes 3 men out of GPF contention with nobody bombing and Pulkinen having the Skate of a lifetime.

Let's say that the podium goes 1, Kagayama, 2, Aymoz 3, Pulkinen or even Britschgi with a PB or close 4, Yamamoto 5, Cha and then 6, Grassl. Easily doable as Cha, Yamamoto and Grassl scored within 10 points of each other at their first assignment and Pulkinen and Britschgi at least have PBs in that range.

In that case, Torgs would still be 4th in the standings going into CoC with only Kagayama and Aymoz moving above him.

Then, let's say that Siao Him Fa wins CoC and Jin Boyang skates both programs like he skated his short program in France and takes 2nd: that's Meomola, Rizzo and Vasilievs out, and a 3rd place from Shun Sato would block Shaidorov and Egadze too.

This would take Torgs down to 6th in the standings and qualifying, with nobody bombing and just a couple of skaters having truly great skates with timing that works out great for Torgs and terrible for multiple other people.

Is this likely? Absolutely not, and if this actually happens then I will be the most shocked out of everybody here. But it is possible.

So, I guess what should be taken from this is that if you want Torgs in the final, cheer super hard for Pulkinen and Britschgi next week.

 

[lariko]

Potentially people wouldn't need to bomb. Or at least, not more than one person. Selevko, Britschgi, Pulkinen and even Samiolov could skate the lights out in Finland which could take Tomono out of contention and a personal best or close to it for Pulkinen could take Yamamoto, Cha and even Grassl off the podium if they all scored the same as they did in their first assignment, which would take Yamamoto out of contention and possibly Cha too if Yamamoto gets 4th above Cha (or, you know, all of Aymoz, Grassl and Kagayama skate well) but below a personal best scoring Pulkinen, which takes 3 men out of GPF contention with nobody bombing and Pulkinen having the Skate of a lifetime.

Let's say that the podium goes 1, Kagayama, 2, Aymoz 3, Pulkinen or even Britschgi with a PB or close 4, Yamamoto 5, Cha and then 6, Grassl. Easily doable as Cha, Yamamoto and Grassl scored within 10 points of each other at their first assignment and Pulkinen and Britschgi at least have PBs in that range.

In that case, Torgs would still be 4th in the standings going into CoC with only Kagayama and Aymoz moving above him.

Then, let's say that Siao Him Fa wins CoC and Jin Boyang skates both programs like he skated his short program in France and takes 2nd: that's Meomola, Rizzo and Vasilievs out, and a 3rd place from Shun Sato would block Shaidorov and Egadze too.

This would take Torgs down to 6th in the standings and qualifying, with nobody bombing and just a couple of skaters having truly great skates with timing that works out great for Torgs and terrible for multiple other people.

Is this likely? Absolutely not, and if this actually happens then I will be the most shocked out of everybody here. But it is possible.

So, I guess what should be taken from this is that if you want Torgs in the final, cheer super hard for Pulkinen and Britschgi next week.

Thank you so much for this analysis, but as much as I would have liked Torgashev in the final, I would have wanted it to happen naturally, through higher placement in his two events (which in my view he might have earned with different panels) versus Grassl, Cha and/or Shaidorov skating below their potential, facing unfriendly panel or, God forbid, being injured in their future 2 events.

 

[Tutto]

The reason I knew Grassl was going to finish high if he didn't fall, and then Kao's meltdown made it easier for him to win the silver... to be fair the European block maneuvering in the men's GP series side has been happening immediately after 2022 Beijing Olympics, with various other skaters thrown under the bus. (Malinin is serving as a great distraction from this).

Can't wait to see next week where Aymoz (2nd, FRA), Grassl (2nd, ITA), Cha (3rd, KOR) and Yamamoto (4th, JPN) will face each other to try locking down the spot for GPF. Depending on how Finland goes, China with Adam (FRA) and Shun (JPN) can be interesting as well...

Well, I should have guessed myself. 50+ years of FS watching taught me nothing, obviously.
Was left scratching my head why they were so lenient to Grassl, all of sudden. Many thanks for providing the explanation.
I wish the favours were directed onto anyone but him. It is not just his ugly looking jumps with poor technique, it is pretty much everything apart from spins - the SS, the speed across the ice. He always was rather slow, but at NHK he just appeared to be walking between the jumps. Maybe someone who watched the event live could correct me?

 

[rabidline]

Well, I should have guessed myself. 50+ years of FS watching taught me nothing, obviously.
Was left scratching my head why they were so lenient to Grassl, all of sudden. Many thanks for providing the explanation.
I wish the favours were directed onto anyone but him. It is not just his ugly looking jumps with poor technique, it is pretty much everything apart from spins - the SS, the speed across the ice. He always was rather slow, but at NHK he just appeared to be walking between the jumps. Maybe someone who watched the event live could correct me?

Even Grassl is just a conveniently placed pawn here: more type of high-scoring quads means higher BV to manipulate, and he's somewhat healthier at the moment compared to post-surgery Rizzo.

 

[Flying Feijoa]

I guess I am one of these people who can hear (and feel) that sort of thing. I don't see Rizzo or Nguyen as expressing music but more as responding to it. For me, that's a major difference. I am probably biased because of my background. Responding to music can be what many will do at a concert or a club, moving to whatever is played, tapping their feet or grooving.. This is what I feel you are saying Rizzo does.
Expressing music is not the same thing. It comes from a different place and it's not just moving along the beat but it's creating movement that parallels the musical line/phrasing. I feel that some of the skaters with big, powerful and smooth skating have the best tools to achieve that, including Yuma. You won't find the expression in their face. You won't find every single beat. You will find the essence of music, the musical line.

Of course, there are people like Shoma Uno whose musicality is easier to perceive. Gosh, I miss him. But Yuma is truly special, at least for me. He is the kind of performer that invites you to the experience instead of just throwing it in your face and imposing it on you. It's more subtle. I guess it may be an acquired taste. We cannot like all the same things. We cannot perceive everything the same way.

Thank you for explaining your thoughts this way.

Great description. I was watching a ballet the other day and started bopping my head along to the beat (can't help it, Rachmaninov wrote some real bangers ) but the dancers and I were definitely interacting with the music in different ways.

I think Rizzo can also be quite good at expressing music. It also partly depends on the choreography and music choice, as some programmes showcase musicality better than others.

 

[dearskate]

I really enjoyed Tsuboi, particularly in the short. His jumps were stunning and flowed so beautifully into the choreography. I also loved Kagiyama and am surprised how many of you seem to think he's unmusical. I have never had a problem with that. I agree on the comments about Grassl. His presentation has improved but he still has plenty of ugly moves and I would put his spins in that as well as his jumping style. He did seem to be treated very leniently.

 

[cailuj365]

Kagiyama is absolutely musical, but I do feel like I'm watching someone possess his body rather it be completely organic. It's an odd feeling when I watch. Perfection of movement yet I feel a bit detached from the performance and him as a skater. I don't think it should affect his PCS scores, and he's still stunning to watch.

In an exaggerated contrast, I *kind of* enjoyed Grassl's free skate more despite the ugliness of his movements. He just seemed so into it. I have to say that picking Billy Elliot, a kid who was an extremely awkward ballet dancer and whose movements were also not pretty, was very clever of Daniel.

 

[rabidline]

I personally appreciate Yuma's technical excellence and feel like his musicality is very rehearsed, but that's not a dig on Yuma- most skaters' musicality is rehearsed, some just learned how to hide it better.

I just think everyone has their own style and Yuma comes off as more studious compared to Ilia and Adam at this moment. I don't think Yuma needs to "like" his music or show affection to it, I mean, if Shoma is mentioned as a comparison, we have to be fair because Shoma himself has never skated to music he particularly wants to skate to and care about up until his retirement. Yuma is a lot more enthusiastic about his competitive music than Shoma's ever been.

What Yuma can improve is really just include that 4F in a more consistent manner- the scores are there, but not if he makes mistakes. And the more he makes mistakes in the same competition as Ilia and Adam, the more disadvantaged he will be.