I have a feeling that Skate Canada will manipulated the score with PCS to make sure that Maddie win.
I would not be surprised to see a clean skate from Sara-Maude Dupuis with the triple axel and finish 2nd or 3rd overall with the same fate as Rinka Watanabe. I have a feeling that no matter what Sara-Maude Dupuis does, they will do everything to make sure Maddie wins.
I actually think that Sara-Maude could win Nationals and they would send Maddie.
The only one scenario where Maddie is not going is if she does really really really badly and the winner is Gabby who skates perfectly. I think because of her experience and ability to score higher PCS and GOE than SMD, Gabby could get the nudge.
I love SMD. I just don't think she's managed yet to convince the judges that she is the real deal. Until then, it's easy to send her when there are more spots (4CC, WTT) because she is great... but to send her when all the team event counts on her placement in the SP, it's tricky.
Whoever gets sent will have a lot of pressure to skate a clean SP.
I would think that the odds are
Maddie 80%. (winning nationals = 100%, finishing 2nd = 85%, finishing 3rd = 70% finishing lower, 50%)
Gabby 15% if winning Nationals : she hasn't competed in two years so she has no body of work. Her selection would rest entirely on Nationals and she would need the other leaders to do badly.
SMD 5% if winning Nationals (winning Nationals with a 3a while Gabby and Maddie falter severely and perhaps are not even on the podium would raise this percentage perhaps up to 20% )