I was bored at home and decided to check the veracity of what some posters here were saying - that Sasha would only beat clean Anna and clean Aliona with 5 quads. And I'm going to analyze her free skate scores of the entire season to better understand that (and compare with Anna's and Aliona's in 3 competitions: Russian Nationals, GPF and Europeans). That being said, let's analyze, shall we?
== JAPAN OPEN ==
Free Skate total score: 160.53
4 quads (4S, 4Lz, 4T3T, 4T1Eu3S)
PCS 63.02
StSq3
Negative GOE in 2 elements: 3Lz3Lo, 4T1Eu3S.
== SKATE CANADA ==
Free Skate total score: 166.62
4 quads (4S, 4Lz, 4T3T, 4T1Eu3S)
PCS 67.42
StSq3
Negative GOE in 1 element: 4S.
== ROSTELECOM ==
Free Skate total score: 160.26
4 quads (4S, 4Lz, 4T3T, 4T1Eu3S)
PCS 66.92
StSq4
Negative GOE in 2 elements: 4S and 3Lz3Lo.
== GPF ==
Free Skate total score: 161.73
5 quads planned (4F, 4S, 4Lz, 4T, 4T1Eu3S)
PCS 65.93
StSq3
Negative GOE in 2 elements: 4S (that she popped and did a 2S) and 4T.
=> Interesting: she changed from 3Lz3Lo to 3Lz3T in this competition.
== RUSSIAN NATIONALS ==
Free Skate total score: 149.88
4 quads planned (4F, 4Lz, 4T3T, 4T1Eu3S)
PCS 69.14
StSq3
Negative GOE in 2 elements: 4F and 4Lz -> she also made the 4T a 2T, but received positive GOE.
=> Interesting 2: she came back to 3Lz3Lo.
== EUROPEANS ==
Free Skate total score: 150.39
4 quads planned (4Lz, 4T3T, 4F, 4T,)
PCS 67.25
StSq4
Negative GOE in 2 elements: 4Lz and 4T (she also introduced a new combination, 3Lz1Eu3S).
==== ALEXANDRA TRUSOVA ====
- Best event: Skate Canada (166+, 4 quads, 1 fall only on 4S).
- Worst event: Russian Nationals (149+, 4 quads, 2 falls and 1 pop on quads).
- More quads landed: Japan Open (4 quads fully landed).
==== ANNA SHCHERBAKOVA ====
- Best event: Russian Nationals (181.94, 3 quads, no falls, PCS 73.72, StSq3).
- GPF: 162.65, 3 quads, 1 fall on 4Lz, PCS 69.13, StSq4).
- Europeans: 159.81, 3 quads, 1 fall on 4Lz, 71.19 PCS, StSq3).
==== ALIONA KOSTORNAIA ====
- Best event: Russian Nationals (169.97, no falls, PCS 77.07, StSq4).
- GPF: 162.14, no falls, PCS 73.27, StSq3).
- Europeans: 155.89, 1 fall on 3 Lz, PCS 72.58, StSq3).
So, first of all, most of you will say "oh, but you're not considering the short program, in which Aliona would totally win". And, if you say that, you're right. However, I'm using this to try to make predictions about next season, in which we don't if Sasha will add or not the 3A in the SP, if quads will be allowed or not in the SP. Another reason why I'm using free skate scores is that the overall layout and score difference between the girls in the short program were mostly stable during the season, the big difference was the FS.
Conclusions:
1. I don't think Anna would have the same scores internationally as the ones she had in Russian Nationals. I can't imagine 181+ in international scene.
2. The number of quads wasn't Sasha's problem. For me, the biggest problem was the lack of consistency between the layouts she used during the season and having insisted so much on 4S. She was also learning 3A, which probably didn't leave much time to perfect 4S too. I think 4 quads is totally fine and possible for her, if she stays with 1 layout the entire season and if she improves on the rest (PCS, StSq, program, choreography -> considering it would increase her SP scores too).
3. Comparing Aliona/Anna best scores's with Sasha's is unfair, because Sasha's best score was in the beginning of the season, with lower PCS/reputation. Aliona/Anna best scores were in Russian Nationals, which was a joke in terms of scores. So, we don't have a good parameter to perfectly compare their scores last season.
4. We can't predict many things for next season until the skaters go back (if all of them go back) to their competition shape and actually compete. What if Rika blossoms this season and beats the other girls? What if Aliona gets a 4S? What if Sasha lands all quads, improves her PCS and lands 3A in Sp? What if Anna adds another quad?
5. Sasha had higher scores than Anna during the first 2 Grand Prix events, I wouldn't be so fast to say Sasha can't beat Anna.
6. Sasha had the potential to get to 172+ points with a 4 quad layout without falls (if she hadn't fallen in Skate Canada) and that, my friends, is a HUGE score. Without 3 axel. Without improvements in PCS. I'm just saying...
7. If Sasha can beat Aliona? That's a whole other thing, and I honestly have no idea.