Analyzing Sotnikova and Kim's footwork in the FS

[drivingmissdaisy]

Evidently, Adelina would've still won. Adelina's winning margin fueled the controversy - it just doesn't make sense for her to win by such a margin, or does it?

Sure it does. In the SP, Yuna had exactly a 1 point edge in base value, but adding in GOE Adelina pulled ahead slightly in the TES. So Adelina won the GOE by a point. In the LP, Adelina had a 4 point edge in base value and after factoring in GOE had about a 6 point lead, so in the LP Adelina won the GOE by about 2 points, which is about the same margin as she won the SP GOE (since LP scores count double). So the margin is primarily due to the difference in BV, with the remainder due primarily to Adelina's better spins: LSp 3.77 vs 3.04, CCoSp 4.71 vs 4.21, FC 4.56 vs 4.43.

 

[Ven]

This goes back to my earlier point that just because people, i.e. non South Koreans/Yuna fans have opted out of the discussion doesn't mean they accepted or agreed with Adelina's win.

At this point of the game, most will either view it as a controversial result or not and move on.

Yes, we will move on to other things. Figure skate is an athletic art and not a real sport. Enjoy the shows and never forget the rigged and paid for judging brought to you by the shameful ISU and IOC.

Anyone who continues to support the ISU or their federations and continues to watched the rigged farces of competitions deserves to see all of this repeated again and again.

 

[DarR]

Sure it does. In the SP, Yuna had exactly a 1 point edge in base value, but adding in GOE Adelina pulled ahead slightly in the TES. So Adelina won the GOE by a point. In the LP, Adelina had a 4 point edge in base value and after factoring in GOE had about a 6 point lead, so in the LP Adelina won the GOE by about 2 points, which is about the same margin as she won the SP GOE (since LP scores count double). So the margin is primarily due to the difference in BV, with the remainder due primarily to Adelina's better spins: LSp 3.77 vs 3.04, CCoSp 4.71 vs 4.21, FC 4.56 vs 4.43.

My argument is that Yuna would have still lost even if she had a full 7 triple program (with 2 3Lzs). How can you explain that? Does that actually make any sense? It doesn't to me.

 

[Ven]

Of course she would have lost even if she did 8 triples. The competition was rigged. You can't win a rigged competition against you no matter what you do.

She could have gone out there and skated Les Miserables (Mathman's favorite) and scored 148 and change just as she did at Worlds -- and she still would have lost because the competition was rigged.

 

[Procrastinator]

The difference was in the GOE, not the base difficulty. Adelina had the loftiest and most dynamic jumps in the competition (and I don't even think it's a close contest), whereas Yuna's jumps were flat and not nearly as dynamic as they were in 2010 or even 2013. Same goes for the spins. There was no way to justify giving Yuna the high GOEs she garnered in those competitions (and in some cases, i.e. the lutz, she still got more than she deserved anyway). That lost her the title (though the slightly pulled-back technical program played its role as well. even with high GOEs this pulled-back program would have only won by the skin of its teeth).

The sketchy part lies in the PCS and the calling of the step sequences levels. We can make sense of the PCS by merely acknowledging how arbitrary a designation it is (there's been much discussion on here about that and some have even called PCS a disguised ordinal system) so Adelina's huge jump shouldn't surprise us for that reason, especially when she had the two skates of her life. The step sequences are harder to explain and I'm certainly not the one to do so. Nevertheless, I'm dissatisfied by the breakdowns presented throughout this thread.

(Oh and random tangent but is anyone else sick of those videos on youtube that put the video of Adelina's sochi FS next to some previous clean but lower-scoring FS of hers from that season to "prove" that the scores were rigged even though the earlier FS was either missing something technically, or was really really unpolished and would understandably not have garnered the high PCS and GOEs that the sochi performance did.)

 

[Ven]

The difference was in the GOE, not the base difficulty.

Well you're wrong there too, because not only did Sotnikova receive excessively high GOEs, but her PCS suddenly went to 9s overnight, and the tech panel magically overlooked her URs and edge calls.

As you mentioned, the levels were all called wrong in favor of the Russian too.

It was an all-out ISU combined assault by everyone involved in the scoring process to make sure the results came out as pre-determined, bought and paid for.

whereas Yuna's jumps were flat and not nearly as dynamic as they were in 2010 or even 2013. Same goes for the spins. There was no way to justify giving Yuna the high GOEs she garnered in those competitions

This is a key point that apparently some of you are incapable of comprehending:

Even if you adjust for higher PCS, had Yuna gone out and skated Les Miserables the exact same way she did at 2013 Worlds, which received an enormous standing ovation from an internationally diverse audience,

Even if she gave that EXACT SAME performance with the same GOEs and everything ... she would have lost. Because the competition was RIGGED.

Go ahead and do the math. She received 0.89 points higher in PCS at Sochi than London 2013. Add that to her Les Miserables 2013 Worlds score ... and she still would have lost the competition to Sotnikova.

Because the competition was rigged.

Not because she was "flat" or "didn't bring it" or anything.

She would have lost no matter what -- because the competition was rigged.

 

[Ven]

Yuna Kim:

2013 World Championships Long Program
Les Miserables
PCS 73.61 TES 74.73 Total 148.34

2014 Sochi Winter Olympics Long Program
Adios Nonino
PCS 74.50 TES 69.69 Total 144.49

You want to say she lost on TES and GOEs because she was "flat", then OK give her her TES score from 2013 Worlds and her WR Sochi PCS score:

74.73 + 74.50 = 149.23
Added to her SP for a competition total of 224.15, compared to Sotnikova's 224.59.

Even if Yuna had "brought it" and earned the same incredibly high GOEs she earned while winning the world championship last year with one of the greatest skates of all time, even with THOSE GOE's and THAT TES score,

she still would have lost -- because the competition was rigged.

 

[DarR]

Rigged might be too strong a word I would use, but regardless of how Adelina skated, there definitely was excessive home-ground favour -- see Julia's PCS and jump GOEs in her FS (very leniently given as well). I don't understand how anyone could disregard the fact that there was home favour.

 

[Ven]

I think calling it "home-ground favor", or "home ice advantage", anything like that, is a disservice, because that implies ... oh well, them's the breaks, better luck next time.

Whereas what really happened was a concerted ISU effort to rig a competition and deliver a pre-determined result.

This was worse than 2002 because in the wake of that, one could pass off the cheating scandal as just some rogue judges gone bad.

But this time it's clear that the entire ISU itself was involved in rigging the outcome of the competitions.

The judges, the tech panel, the way the ISU has dealt with the issue, it's clear everything was organized way beyond just a rogue judge or two.

It's the entire rotten smelly sport that has been outed as a fraud.

 

[DarR]

I think calling it "home-ground favor", or "home ice advantage", anything like that, is a disservice, because that implies ... oh well, them's the breaks, better luck next time.

Whereas what really happened was a concerted ISU effort to rig a competition and deliver a pre-determined result.

I understand where you're coming from, but 'pre-determined result' had to depend on how the Russian ladies performed. And Adelina did perform well enough (but not for the gold obviously in my opinion).

Sadly it seems we have to accept whatever the result was and move on. Yuna knows but she's fine with it and has moved on. Hopefully something like that would not happen again.

 

[Ven]

I understand where you're coming from, but 'pre-determined result' had to depend on how the Russian ladies performed.

I agree to an extent. As much as some posters here hate to hear it, Lipnitskaia fell so many times that even she couldn't be put on the podium, but it was outrageous she finished ahead of Asada "just in case".

But the truth is Sotnikova stepped out on a jump and still won. She could have fallen on another and still won.

Sadly it seems we have to accept whatever the result was and move on...Hopefully something like that would not happen again.

This is where we disagree. I don't think there's anything to move on to. Of course it will happen again. It happened before and instead of fixing the problem, they made judging anonymous to make it harder to figure out.

The ISU doesn't care about cheating because they are the ones doing it. See my custom title = boycott the ISU.

 

[DarR]

I agree to an extent. As much as some posters here hate to hear it, Lipnitskaia fell so many times that even she couldn't be put on the podium, but it was outrageous she finished ahead of Asada "just in case".

But the truth is Sotnikova stepped out on a jump and still won. She could have fallen on another and still won.

Yes the issue is the extent of Adelina's lead over Yuna and Carolina.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Whereas what really happened was a concerted ISU effort to rig a competition and deliver a pre-determined result.

There is little incentive for the ISU to do this. Each of the federations has their own agenda so it would be difficult for ISU to coerce any one of them into making a decision that doesn't help them in some way. Aside from the 3-3 and the botched combo, Adelina performed her jump elements better. Adelina performed her spins better. As far as performance, Adelina had spark and no one can deny that. It is debatable whether Yuna's performance was flat. Some thought it was, others thought it wasn't. Of the top 9 skaters in the LP, only Akiko has a (slightly) lower base value than Yuna. If you are going to attempt less than the competition, you better nail everything. She didn't; aside from the usual points she loses with her spins, the solo 3Lz, solo 3S, and solo 2A were weaker than she usually does them and earned mediocre GOE scores (based on her high standard). Aside from the beautiful steps and the 2-2-2, nothing in the second half of Yuna's performance was performed particularly well and I think that's why she didn't get as high PCS as she could have with a stronger skate.

 

[Ven]

There is little incentive for the ISU to do this.

The ISU derives its power from the federations and the IOC / ISU partnership. Its "big brother the IOC" may very well have made it clear that it was in the ISU's interest to favor a certain outcome.

----------

Now, most will remember there was a famous cheating scandal in 2002. You would think the sanctioning body would have taken steps to clamp down on cheaters and clean up the sport. In fact the ISU did the exact opposite -- the ISU did everything in its power to make cheating harder to discover and thereby likely to continue if not increase. Additionally, everyone saw the reaction by Cinquanta and the ISU after the controversy erupted. They don't care. Conflicts of interest? They don't care. Whether cheating happens or not, they don't even care what the mere perception is. They simply do not care, and that's why they have the audacity to do what they did at Sochi ... because they realize after all of these years, the figure skating community as a whole would lie down and take it like the passive and indifferent people they are. Is everyone like that? No. But on the whole? Seems like it to me. The competition was so blatantly rigged, but meh, let's all hug afterwards and move on to the next one! That seems to be the general sentiment.

We've already gone over the evidence so many times in so many threads. The tech callers called everything wrong. The step sequences were incorrectly called for Sotnikova and her competitors, giving her an advantage. Maybe a mistake? OK ... well they also did not call any of her downgrades. Then the judges suddenly took her from 7s to 9s in PCS overnight. Then she received GOEs that were unheard of. Then you start to notice that the ISU "just happened" to assign two out of three ethnic Russians on the tech panel, with the power to conspire together and call the tech calls inaccurately. Then you start to notice someone like Alla who curiously attended every one of Sotnikova's events on the season, despite her conflicts of interest, even though more than a dozen other qualified Russian judges were available. And then you notice people like Balkov on the judging panel, who have been convicted for cheating in the past. And then you notice that Didier Gailhaguet, a convicted cheat, is widely believed to be the next in line for ISU president. And then you just keep noticing things like that.

It did not matter what any of the other skaters did. Yuna was not "flat", and even if you weren't enamored with her performance, she could have received the same TES score she did last year at Worlds, which is widely considered one of the best skates ever, plus the Olympic boost in PCS score .. and she still would have lost the competition by a few tenths of a point, as I showed above. She could have done 8 triples and she still would have lost. She could have skated so well that everyone in the arena started floating in the air, and she still would have lost.

The reason is because the competition was rigged.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

The reason is because the competition was rigged.

Then watch another sport.

There is far from universal agreement about the result. Probably more people disagree with the result than agree, but most of those that disagree can look at the numbers and hear the commentator's explanation (Hamilton, Kwan, etc.) and understand how everything turned out the way it did. It's the Olympics. You have to bring your best. If you're going to do the 8th hardest program and expect to win then you have to nail everything.

 

[DarR]

Then watch another sport.

There is far from universal agreement about the result. Probably more people disagree with the result than agree, but most of those that disagree can look at the numbers and hear the commentator's explanation (Hamilton, Kwan, etc.) and understand how everything turned out the way it did. It's the Olympics. You have to bring your best. If you're going to do the 8th hardest program and expect to win then you have to nail everything.

And again the FS is conveniently used to argue your point.

BV (SP+FS):

1) Gracie: 92.68
2) Adelina: 91.86
3) Mao: 90.22
4) Carolina: 88.98
5) Yuna: 88.92
6) Mae: 88.41
7) Julia: 87.65
8) Ashley: 86.13

Hardly the 8th hardest in this competition.

And as I have already explained earlier with calculations, Yuna would only have won if she had the most difficult program (i.e. 3A in her 7-triple program; 3Lo wouldn't have sufficed).

 

[Ven]

Yuna would only have won if she had the most difficult program (i.e. 3A in her 7-triple program; 3Lo wouldn't have sufficed).

We're not disagreeing in general, but on this point she still would have lost, because the competition was rigged.

You can't buy more lottery tickets to win a rigged lottery. If needed Sot's score would have been higher or they would have phantom downgraded Yuna or dropped her another way.

Because the competition was rigged.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

And as I have already explained earlier with calculations, Yuna would only have won if she had the most difficult program (i.e. 3A in her 7-triple program; 3Lo wouldn't have sufficed).

I don't disagree with this (not about needing the 3A, but needing the hardest program). But why is that the case? You have to look at the numbers. Yuna does not get as many points as Adelina on the spins. Normally she would get better GOE on the jumps, but Adelina did all but one jumping pass very well, most with more difficult entries than Yuna. Adelina was penalized for the jumping pass she made an error on and got great GOE for the jumps she did well. This is not up for debate. Program-wise, there are multiple 10 second gaps where she is doing nothing but crossovers (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgXKJvTVW9g 0:36-0:46,2:45-2:55,3:16-3:26). These empty periods were not present in her program last year. Start around 2:10: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOw2oY4NZYI. Comparing Yuna's programs, can you even see she is doing more before the 3Lz last year and before the 3S? You may have thought the Sochi skate was up to Yuna's usual standard but it wasn't, and that's why she left the door open. Both her and Caro watered down the choreography in their LP's.

 

[satine]

I don't disagree with this (not about needing the 3A, but needing the hardest program). But why is that the case? You have to look at the numbers. Yuna does not get as many points as Adelina on the spins. Normally she would get better GOE on the jumps, but Adelina did all but one jumping pass very well, most with more difficult entries than Yuna. Adelina was penalized for the jumping pass she made an error on and got great GOE for the jumps she did well. This is not up for debate. Program-wise, there are multiple 10 second gaps where she is doing nothing but crossovers (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgXKJvTVW9g 0:36-0:46,2:45-2:55,3:16-3:26).

I really only read this thread for the & I respect the view that Adelina should have won. But this has got to be called out for obvious bs. Not one of those is 10 seconds long, they're 6-8.
Meanwhile, the blandest part of any of the medalist's fs was, imo of course, 0:43-1:00 and the longest crossover segment would undoubtedly be 1:20-1:36 of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrVL5tM926s.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I really only read this thread for the & I respect the view that Adelina should have won. But this has got to be called out for obvious bs. Not one of those is 10 seconds long, they're 6-8.
Meanwhile, the blandest part of any of the medalist's fs was, imo of course, 0:43-1:00 and the longest crossover segment would undoubtedly be 1:20-1:36 of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrVL5tM926s.

She did a total of five crossovers over that period of 16 seconds. And when you say "not one of those is 10 seconds long" I posted 10 second segments in which nothing is going on. What is she doing in any of those segments in the video? If you think the ranges should be shortened you can specify why and we can discuss