Ashley or Gracie?

[R.D.]

I haven't seen it - is there a link?

Not that I can see. But she performed it live at Weiss' show a couple weeks ago, and I was there.

Are you going to do a US Ladies preview thread for this season?
Not sure if Caroline, Mirai and Rachael won't be in the mix come Natls.

Oh yeah, I usually do one about now...maybe, we'll see.

And what about Alissa? Will she be healthy enough to be a factor?

No.

 

[FSGMT]

BTW, I said "in the mix" which is suggesting a top 5 finish with a shot at the podium.

Who has seven triples in their LP (and has ever hit them in competition)?

Maybe Gracie when she was still skating juniors? Maybe Ashley at 4CC last season?

Even world-wide I don't think we see that many clean 7 triple programs from the senior Ladies.

Carolina? Mao? Yuna?

Ashley skated 7-triples programs both at Worlds and WTT with some minor mistakes, Leonova skated a 7-triples FS at Worlds, Tuktamysheva and Lipnitskaya usually skate 7-triples programs, and Gracie, Agnes, Gao, Mao, Sotnikova, Suzuki, Murakami plan 7 triples in their FSs, but they are not always able to land them all, you're right in this. I wanted to say that Alissa has a minor base value in her programs than the others and, considering that she rarely lands all of her triples, it will be very difficult for her to score high...

 

[dorispulaski]

I once read that Joannie's programs including at Oly 2010 were actually the most developed and intricate in the vein of Chan, Buttle and Lambiel but it was not recognized (yes moreso developed and intricate than Yuna and Mao). Despite the Mirai deserved bronze; everyone felt sorry for Rochette mongers it certainly is something to consider that even a few errors when you have good skating skilsl and intricate program you can do well like we have seen in the past from Lambiel, Buttle, Takahashi and Chan.

You may have heard it, but yea, verily, it is not so, and is probably a statement by strong fans of Joannie's, rather than having any relationship to truth. I'm not going to go there on the subject of Mirai or any other lady at Olympics. What I think is just wrong is the implication that somehow Joannie's program was superior to either Yu Na's or Mao's. There were indeed two ways to measure the difficulty and complexity of a program in 2010: the transitions mark, and the base value of the program. And given that Buttle & Lambiel excelled prior to the 2010 Olympics, I am sure that the judges knew well how to value the effect base value, and knew that more Buttle-esque transitions should yield a higher transitions mark. And regardless or not of complexity, there is a lot more to a winning program than inherent complexity-there is performing the items in the program correctly.

Here's the protocols from the 2010 Olympics:

http://www.isuresults.com/results/owg2010/owg10_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf

Here's what Yu Na actually performed in her LP:
Her LP to Gershwin's Piano Concerto
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baA0so7ipIM


3lz3t
3F
2A2t2Lo
FCoSp4
SpSq4
2A3t
SlSt3
2A
3S
3Lz
FFSp4
CCoSp4

Total base value 60.90
Transitions mark 8.60
All the elements were performed properly with good GOE.

Here's what Mao did:
Her LP to Bells of Moscow
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5y5mcxHe9Qc

3A
3A2T
3F2Lo
FFSP4
SpSq4
3Lo
3F(ur)2Lo2Lo
1T
2A
FCoSp4
SlSt3
CCoSp4

Base Value 55.86
Transitions mark 7.50
Her 3t was popped to a single (thus losing about 3 points of base value, and her flip in combination was underrotated. The only element given negative GOE was the 3F2Lo2Lo.

And here's what Joannie did to St. Saens' Samson & Delilah:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyzkQQms3rA

3Lz2t2Lo
3F
3Lo
FCSSp4
SpSq4
3Lz
3T+3S Sequence
2A
CCoSp4
3S
CiSt3
FSSp4

Base value 58.34
Transitions mark 7.75
There were severe problems with her first 3F (-2 GOE)
Her solo 3Lz earned negative GOE
Her solo 2A earned -1.28 negative GOE
And her step sequence was only a level 3 (as was Mao's) If you want to make a claim for Buttlesque marks, there better be the ability to bring off a level 4.

Now looking back at these marks, and the programs, there is a case that Joannie's program is somewhat less empty than Mao's-Mao took lots of time to set up two triple axels. (see the two transitions marks) Mao's programs was not transitionless either. However, there is no case at all, at any level, for Joannie's program over Yu Na's.

And the sheer difficulty of attempting and completing two triple axels, far outweighs any complexity claims for me. Particularly when the skater being compared neither had a 3/3, nor tried a triple axel, and had problems with three of her 7 jump passes. Mao was the correct second place finisher in the LP in my book.

However, I have put up the videos, and the scores, and you are free to have a differing opinion.

 

[janetfan]

Thanks Doris for the breakdown and analysis.

I wish fans could see this as soon as a skater's score is posted at an event.

And no, I don't want to leave the TV and go to my computer and miss the next skater.

 

[dorispulaski]

Me either! But after the event is over, if I have questions, I read the protocols.

I do wish the commentators were a tad more informative! They could add a lot of this detail while we're waiting for the scores to come up (preferably not so much when the skaters are actually skating )

These days, the commentators actually get some sort of screen shot of the protocols, although sometimes as challenges to tech panel id's go on, there are changes flip flopping all the time.

 

[janetfan]

Me either! But after the event is over, if I have questions, I read the protocols.

I do wish the commentators were a tad more informative! They could add a lot of this detail while we're waiting for the scores to come up (preferably not so much when the skaters are actually skating )

These days, the commentators actually get some sort of screen shot of the protocols, although sometimes as challenges to tech panel id's go on, there are changes flip flopping all the time.

My feeling is that ISU does not make it readily available - I mean INSTANTLY available to the commentators.

I could be wrong - anybody know?

It's part of what makes the anonymous judging feel even more secretive, as in "what are you hiding."

How hard is it to get the score sheet sent simultaneously to the broadcast booth as soon as the score is reached and posted?

Not hard at all yet it seems like it is not being done.

If the announcers do get it and are ignoring it I think that is not helping.

gkelly often points out that if more info was offered it could serve to get the fans more interested in how the CoP works.

I agree and don't see how this could hurt - and in a year or two could help quite a bit.

 

[FSGMT]

My feeling is that ISU does not make it readily available - I mean INSTANTLY available to the commentators.

I could be wrong - anybody know?

It's part of what makes the anonymous judging feel even more secretive, as in "what are you hiding."

How hard is it to get the score sheet sent simultaneously to the broadcast booth as soon as the score is reached and posted?

Not hard at all yet it seems like it is not being done.

If the announcers do get it and are ignoring it I think that is not helping.

gkelly often points out that if more info was offered it could serve to get the fans more interested in how the CoP works.

I agree and don't see how this could hurt - and in a year or two could help quite a bit.

In Italy, our commentators can see the protocols immediatly after the performance, and they read us the key points (that's how I actually learned how the IJS works) and, from the last Euros, they can see the protocols on a screen WHILE the judges are giving their marks, I don't know if it's the same in other countries...

 

[ice coverage]

I think Gracie will go to Worlds this season because we need a power jumper, so unless Agnes can get consistent or Ashley starts doing the 3-3, getting full credit for it, and stops 2-footing jumps, that leaves Gracie. Flatt and Gao were hopes in the past to fill this role but I doubt it will happen for either while balancing full course loads as pre-med students at Stanford and Harvard. Mirai has nice jumps too but she needs a 3-3 and the 3s back in addition to fixing her URs and other jump issues to be a power jumper. It doesn't matter that the rest of Gracie's skating isn't that great, her jumps are huge and earn her a lot of points and her PCS, spins are adequate. She's not uber flexible nor does she look like a baby ballerina but she's blonde and has a pretty face and eventually she might get there artistically. She kind of reminds me of Rochette actually, similar build and power, but Gracie has 3-3s and consistent jumps which Rochette never had, but like Gracie Joannie was not naturally known as an artist.

Re: " ... but she's blonde and has a pretty face ... "

I hope that you are not saying that Gold's blondeness is advantageous to her skating. :disagree:
A pretty face never hurts, but hair that is black, brunette, or red is not inherently less attractive or less medal-worthy than blonde.

I will try to give you the benefit of the doubt that you were leading up to making your comparison with Rochette??

 

[mskater93]

I think silverlake is implying that Gracie looks like the "quintessential American girl" (like Marilyn Monroe - blonde and pretty), not that just because she's blonde, she'll score high. FWIW, Carley Gold went to a more brunette look this season.

 

[ice coverage]

I know that you were just trying to help, mskater93.

But for those who believe that blonde + pretty = "quintessentially American" rofl:
Let the record show that MANY of U.S. skating's most successful ladies have not fit that description.

Just ask Michelle Kwan, Kristi Yamaguchi, Dorothy Hamill, Peggy Fleming, Sarah Hughes, Debi Thomas, Sasha Cohen, Nancy Kerrigan ... need I continue?
Are they pretty? Yes. Champions? Yes. Blonde? NO.

ETA:
Forgot to say thanks for mentioning Carly Gold . (I hope that no one would be silly enough to suggest that her brunette hair makes her any less "quintessentially American" than her twin.)​

 

[mskater93]

I am trying to explain silverlake's mindset, not my own - that it's that "Marilyn Monroe or Marlene Deitrich" style that makes them want to push her. I don't think whether she's blonde, brunette, or redhead makes a difference, rather whether she completes the 3+3 in the SP without other major errors and both 3+3 combos in the LP and gains control over the second half of her program (which is NOW the focus going into Regionals and SC). Her name (of course you want a kid with a name like GOLD striving to win it all) and her back story (from quintessential small Midwestern city - Springfield, IL-and a twin who also skates and hasn't had to give up due to injury/illness yet) make her more marketable than anything else. Oh, and her steely competition nerves and quirky personality (that she really hasn't gotten an opportunity to show yet) help in the marketing regard as well.

 

[Skater Boy]

Ashley is the hope for the USA; Gracie might make a huge impact but I expect a few tumbles along the way.

 

[dorispulaski]

She has gotten the quirky thing across-not every skater girl juggles at competitions.

And the quirkiness is evident, even this early in the season, in her Life is Beautiful LP. (which is why I like the program for her-it just seems to fit)

 

[ice coverage]

I am trying to explain silverlake's mindset, not my own ... I don't think whether she's blonde, brunette, or redhead makes a difference ...

Thanks, mskater93. I appreciate your reassurance.

May the best skating win!

 

[Ginask8s]

Thanks, mskater93. I appreciate your reassurance.

May the best skating win!

Skating has always been a bit of of a beauty contest and Gracie is very pretty(almost like Kiri Korpi) I think she is being packaged quite well

 

[FSGMT]

Skating has always been a bit of of a beauty contest and Gracie is very pretty(almost like Kiri Korpi) I think she is being packaged quite well

Yes, of course she is! But she needs to work hard, this is the key point in figure skating! If you are talented, you are well "packaged" AND you work hard you can win, and at the moment she's on the good way this is certain!

 

[ice coverage]

As an aside:

Don't forget that Ashley Wagner is very pretty as well. :yes:

So even if skating were purely a beauty contest (heaven forfend!), it's not as if Gold would be an obvious winner over Wagner.