Can anybody break up the Slutskaya/Kwan/Cohen trio in Turin?

[slutskayafan21]

About Kwan vs. Cohen I would like to add that in this point of their careers Cohen though has recently won 2 silver medals at Worlds while in the same time Kwan got a bronze and finished out of podium (I believe that the last time Kwan won a Worlds competition outside N/A was in 2000, wasn´t it?).

While Arakawa won the 2004 Worlds (with my all time favourite freeskate performance in ladies discipline!!!), she was only 9th in 2005 Worlds. I´d imagine though that in Arakawa´s case a placement like that may actually really work for her benefit regarding the 2006 Olympics.

I did sense at the 2003 Worlds Kwan would have to do something terrable to not win the gold, although with her wonderful performances she probably deserved it in the end(thankfuly). However in 2001 I dont believe she was set up to win because it was in North America, in fact Slutskaya seemed to have the slight edge in terms of judges preferance, momentum, and insiders beliefs, at the time; but Kwan skated lights out to take it away from her, and Irina was a bit off, largely due to the enormous pressure Kwan applied with her performance preceding it.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

To be more realistic. I think Slutskaya's main rival for this season is Sasha Cohen. She was very close in points at the conclusion of the Moscow Worlds. This she accomplished without a perfect skate and no 3x3s and no bielmans of any kind.

Unfortunately, for Sasha, she MUST up the Tech because despite the WOWs of flexibility, Irina will get very close to Sasha in PCS scores based on her GOE scores, and that will give the edge to Irina who, more than likely, be a good distance from others in the Tech scores.

Another rival for Slutskaya would be Shizuka if she has the clean skate and gives her Dortmund performance.

Joe

 

[slutskayafan21]

Cohen did not have perfect competition in Moscow, in that she made some mistakes and did not skate an error-free competition. However that does not mean she did not deliver to her full potential IMO because I have NEVER seen her complete an error-free competition. Granted I have seen clean short programs from here, and even her short in Moscow was slightly flawed, but I have never seen her do a clean long program, never never. Also Irina lost herself 5-6 points by not doing a different triple other than a 3rd triple loop, which she gained no points for. So the points difference potentialy was more than it appeared.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I just said that, Sasha did not skate perfection yet managed to stay close to the leader without the leader's WOW moves.

Irina did win the Tech.

 

[Vash01]

To be more realistic. I think Slutskaya's main rival for this season is Sasha Cohen. She was very close in points at the conclusion of the Moscow Worlds. This she accomplished without a perfect skate and no 3x3s and no bielmans of any kind.

Unfortunately, for Sasha, she MUST up the Tech because despite the WOWs of flexibility, Irina will get very close to Sasha in PCS scores based on her GOE scores, and that will give the edge to Irina who, more than likely, be a good distance from others in the Tech scores.

Another rival for Slutskaya would be Shizuka if she has the clean skate and gives her Dortmund performance.

Joe

If Shizuka gives a Dortmund like performance, chances are she will make it to the top of the podium. She has almost as much athleticism as Irina and almost as much flexibility as Sasha. What she is lacking is the confidence, even after winning worlds in 2004.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

If Shizuka gives a Dortmund like performance, chances are she will make it to the top of the podium. She has almost as much athleticism as Irina and almost as much flexibility as Sasha. What she is lacking is the confidence, even after winning worlds in 2004.

ITA. What I see as the triumvirate at the present time in Ladies is Irina, Sasha and Shizuka. And as I said before, in the Men it should be the European Men of Evgeni, Brian and Stephane.

Of course all of this will change with injuries, and with the sliperiness of the sport I could add others very easily waiting in the wings for such catastrophes.

With or without Kwan it is still a race for the podium and gold in particular.

Joe

 

[Doggygirl]

If Shizuka gives a Dortmund like performance, chances are she will make it to the top of the podium. She has almost as much athleticism as Irina and almost as much flexibility as Sasha. What she is lacking is the confidence, even after winning worlds in 2004.

I think another challenge for Shiz will be making sure her jumps are fully rotated. I think there were some ?? about that at Dortmund IIRC, and since then under COP she has had jumps downgraded with a fair degree of frequency - especially the 3/3's. Japan International is a recent example.

I love her skating, and I hope she can pull it together on all fronts and have a great season!!

DG

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I think another challenge for Shiz will be making sure her jumps are fully rotated. I think there were some ?? about that at Dortmund IIRC, and since then under COP she has had jumps downgraded with a fair degree of frequency - especially the 3/3's. Japan International is a recent example.

I love her skating, and I hope she can pull it together on all fronts and have a great season!!DG

In my opinion (it is not particularly humble in this case) I think when a skater is a threat to a favorite. The fans of the favorite get on a bandwagon and scream UNDERROTATED JUMPS Yet the judges in that competition don't seem to see it that way. You figure.

I do see underrotated jumps from time to time when I see a comp live particularly in the edge jumps. From the tv I am never absolutely sure unless they slomo them.

But, I see plenty of flutzes especially by the American ladies but let's keep that quiet because it's the attempt that counts not the change to another jump.

Joe

 

[Doggygirl]

In my opinion (it is not particularly humble in this case) I think when a skater is a threat to a favorite. The fans of the favorite get on a bandwagon and scream UNDERROTATED JUMPS Yet the judges in that competition don't seem to see it that way. You figure.

I do see underrotated jumps from time to time when I see a comp live particularly in the edge jumps. From the tv I am never absolutely sure unless they slomo them.

But, I see plenty of flutzes especially by the American ladies but let's keep that quiet because it's the attempt that counts not the change to another jump.

Joe

Joe, I am not talking about my personal opinion - it all moves to fast for me and I honestly can't tell the difference between fully rotated, and 1/4+ under rotated, which I believe is the "rule" under NJS. I'm talking about the score sheets. As an example, I watched the video of Shiz at JIC (looked like a 3/3 attempt to me) AND I read the live reports from posters, where a 3/3 was reported. But the score sheet said 3/2 according to the technical caller. I wondered about two other solo jumps in Shiz's program (later than the 3/3 attempt) that were called on the score sheets as doubled. But it looked to me like those were "doubled" by Shiz - tripples weren't attempted. But that's just from my amateur view.

I don't think I know enough to holler "under rotated!!" on my own (and I defy you to find a time when I did without benefit of score sheets). I go by the score sheets. I love Shiz's skating and want to see her do well. So I hope she can get her 3/3's fully rotated, because it will give her a TES advantage.

But just to make it clear, I'm not the one doing the calling.

DG

 

[Doggygirl]

I meant to include....

While it seems under NJS (to me anyway) that there is a pretty close eye being placed on rotations, I tend to think as you do Joe, that there is not enough attention being paid to Flutzing. I hope we can all keep an eye out on GOE's for 3Z's this season, and figure out if the "forgiving of flutzhing" has hope of being repaired.

DG

 

[hockeyfan228]

In my opinion (it is not particularly humble in this case) I think when a skater is a threat to a favorite. The fans of the favorite get on a bandwagon and scream UNDERROTATED JUMPS Yet the judges in that competition don't seem to see it that way. You figure.
Joe

It's not up to the judges to determine underrotated jumps anymore: it's up to the "callers." Under 6.0, there was no need to call underrotated jumps, and under 6.0, there was always an issue of underrotated 3/3's, regardless of whether they were from the favorite or the underdog. 3/3's, attempts or completed, were a trade-off for a multitude of sins from sloppy stroking to underrotation. Several worldwide commentators, including Underhill and Martini, questioned Arakawa's triples in the SP in Dortmund and called a cheat on the 3/T in combo and the 3F, but there was no caller to make that determination. In 2005 Arakawa left many points on the table when she performed doubles instead of triples.

In 2005 and the recent JIC, Arakawa received credit for two 3/3's, one in the LP in NHK and one in the quali round at Dortmund. The protocols don't say where she attempted a 3/3, and the only one on film I have is JIC, where she did attempt a 3/3 which was downgraded to a 3/2.

I know you disagree with the ISU's decision, but technically, the entrance into each jump is more than the take-off edge, and the ISU has determined that the other factors (curve, rotational direction, landing leg) are more important in defining the jumps than the take-off edge alone, and they have chosen to address the incorrect edge with deductions on GOE. That leaves it up to the judges, who have been lax in calling both lutzes with inside edge take-offs and flips with outside edge take-offs.

 

[Doggygirl]

Excellent Point Hockeyfan...

That the rotations are up to the caller, and the "Flutz" penalties are up to the judges via the GOE's. I really hope that the callers and the judges make a superb effort this year to get this right, in fairness to all of the competitors.

DG

 

[Matt]

I think Moscow 2005 proved that any idea of a "set triumvirate" for the ladies' podium at the Olys isn't set in stone. Sure, Kostner may have been a fluke and she will have to deal with nerves in her home country (she is what? 18-19, after all). The more serious detail is that Kwan, in a competition with CoP, wasn't on the podium. I'm a Kwan fan as much as anyone, but with 123 days left until the Olys now, she is going to need to get some of her problems with the new judging system sorted out and soon before I give her a guaranteed spot on that podium. The hip injury only further complicates things.

I definitely think Shizuka and the Japanese ladies (Suguri and Onda are starting to skate better again) are a factor and more of one than people give them credit for. They may not be on top of the podium, but they can definitely keep people off of it.

As for the men, I would say it's a little easier to say Plushenko, Joubert, and Lambiel, but Buttle and Weir have the possibility to be spoilers (although some of Weir's early showings may make him questionable)

 

[rain]

Yes, these three will certainly be in the mix, but I think you can't count out any of the Japanese ladies, not to mention others such as Costner and an outside chance for Rochette. Then, of course, there's always a chance that someone nobody expected will come up with a great season. My point is, I think the ladies podium is far from fixed at this point, though I'd say Slutskaya has the most sure shot at it. She's not my favorite skater, I admit, but she does seem to be the darling of the international judges right now. If last season was any indication, they seem quite willing to overlook her somewhat lacking presentation skills.

 

[Mathman]

Michelle found the perfect formula for 6.0 judging. Hit 6 or 7 clean triples, don't fall down, and emote like crazy. You would think that she could do the same while counting up CoP points.

But so far it hasn't worked out that way. I doubt if we will see her at Cup of China, so she will be the mystery girl at Turino.

 

[R.D.]

I think Moscow 2005 proved that any idea of a "set triumvirate" for the ladies' podium at the Olys isn't set in stone. Sure, Kostner may have been a fluke and she will have to deal with nerves in her home country (she is what? 18-19, after all). The more serious detail is that Kwan, in a competition with CoP, wasn't on the podium. I'm a Kwan fan as much as anyone, but with 123 days left until the Olys now, she is going to need to get some of her problems with the new judging system sorted out and soon before I give her a guaranteed spot on that podium. The hip injury only further complicates things.

I definitely think Shizuka and the Japanese ladies (Suguri and Onda are starting to skate better again) are a factor and more of one than people give them credit for. They may not be on top of the podium, but they can definitely keep people off of it.

I agree that 1) the Olys is anybody's game right now, 2) Kwan's got some thinking to do, and 3) the Japanese ladies are being underestimated. But I bet you that someone we're not even talking about (or discussing in full length) will rise this season and become that unseen force. Or maybe someone will just peak at the right moment. The Olys, as I see it, is (IN MY OPINION PEOPLE) half preparation and half peaking at the right moment. You can prepare as much as you want but you still have to overcome those nerves and put it all together in 6:50. The big question is, Who is going to do this? Will we be fortunate enough to have multiple skaters peak at the same time?

Nothing against Irina but I sort of hope she doesn't do so well just to kind of even things out and level the playing field a bit more. I don't want the OLYs to be a cake-walk for her like the Worlds was. (Only Cohen at this point can really challenge her in terms of points.)

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I don't think the triumvirate in Torino is set in stone either, I was just changing it a bit to keep the ball rolling.

I'm looking to see more of Miki Ando as well as Fumie, Rochette and Kostner, and maybe Kwan if she shows up somewhere.

That triumvirate will change over the course of the season. In the meantime, I am awaiting a view of Campbells - not for the scores, but for checking out Cohen and Ararkawa. Both needed a few things last season. I want to see if they are getting those things this season.

Joe

 

[R.D.]

Actually, just fugedaboudit. Post removed.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Hockeyfan - We will always be at odds with the rules. Some rules I want broken and

I'm not against the Tech Assist calling the underrotated jumps. I'm against the double whammy.

Like in other Sports, a pole vaulter who attempts to jump 7 ft and misses, the result is no score!!! I believe a Lutz by definition is a Lutz and Flip by definition is a Flip. I'm not against scoring them if that's what they do. I can't buy and never will buy an attempted anything in figure skating. And then to score this non existent jump in the GOEs is ludicrous. Atempted quad lutz turned into a flutz gets quite a score with a -1 deduction.

A skater who can not do a basic jump such as the lutz should not be Senior skater.

As for Arakawa, if the judges are catching incomplete landing on jumps, that is there job. No problem. But I want them to catch every skater's incomplete jumps and not say "but I know she can do it".

Joe