Caroline Zhang

[MrScroogeMcDuck]

There have been several threads over the years about skaters that you personally liked that weren't doing so well. Two names routinely brought up in those threads were Bradley and Czisny. People were treating their careers as pretty much over. We all know what happened last season for those two.

Now, I will be the first one to admit that Zhang has a lot more work to do than Czisny and Bradley had to do, but it's situations like those that make me reject the "send them to the glue factory" attitude.

Besides, goals change as reality changes. I think some people are still treating her as the overconfident, almost cocky, girl from several years ago. I seriously doubt the Zhang of today thinks she will be standing at the top of the world podium.

 

[bluelutz]

I don't claim to be an expert on the new rules. But as I understand them, Caroline could win Nationals, and the USFSA could not just send her to 4CC and Worlds like in years past. She must get a minimum score in an ISU event. Is this correct?

Yes, only if she could make the U.S. World or 4CC team.
But that would be very difficult.

U.S. has only two spots for the World as the result of the last one,
which means top two girls at the Nationals can go,
and in order to have a chance to be selected for the 4CC team, which got three spots.
a skater have to finish at least 5th unless any non-age elgible girl finish top 5.

So who does Caroline have to contend with for the top five finish.

Senior girls: Alissa Czisny, Rachael Flatt, Mirai Nagasu, Ashley Wagner, Agnes Zawadski, Christina Gao
Then there are new girls like Courtney Hicks, Vanessa Lam, Leah Keiser, Yasmin Siraj

It is going to be an uphill battle for Caroline at the Next Nationals, to say the least.


As for qualifying for GPS:

The top six skaters from the 2011 World Championships were assigned to two events.
They also had the option of competing at a third event.
Skaters who placed 7-12 at 2011 Worlds were guaranteed two assignments.
The remaining spots could be given to skaters
who placed in the top 24 on the season's best score or the world ranking lists.
However, these skaters were not guaranteed any events.

At this time, it is not very realistic to think Caroline can make the World or 4CC team.
Then she must earn the points to make the top 24 world ranking
or make the world top 24 SB score.
And she has to do it at SA as this is only one GPS entry of this season,
SB at the domestic competiton does not count.

So what points or SB does she have to earn here?
It really depends on how other girls do during the season,
and top 8 at SA can earn the point,
but in order to keep any hope for the next season,
top three(or four) finish with a very good score is necessary for her, I assume.

And addition to Lepisto, Kostner and Czisny,
other girls like Imai, Makarova and Helgesson have ability to steal the show as well.

Well, SA is the first of the season,
and we have seen so many melt downs from many top skaters in the past.
So anything can happen.
Who knows, Caroline might medal here.

However, if she finishes lower than 5th,
very possibly this SA can be her last appearance on GPS.

At the very first of her senior season, Akiko Suzuki was assigned to SC,
but she could not make it because of her illness.
After she stayed away from the ice for two full seasons,
it took for her like three seasons to earn two spots on her own,
because there were Mao, Miki, Yukari & Fumie on top of her,
she could not make the World or 4CC team to earn big points
even though routinely she won at the B internationals
where skaters can earn points but not much.

That's how difficult to get back on GPS once a skater loses spots,
especially now only 10 sakters can compete for each one instead of 12.

We will see how well Caroline does at SA.

 

[bluelutz]

Here is te list of ISU SB 2010-2011 season.

http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2010-11/sbtslto.htm

And the 24th skater and her score:

(24) 155.83 Sarah HECKEN GER World Championships 2011 30.04.2011

However, it seems that skaters do not have to be in top 24
as some skaters retire, some junior skaters choose to keep competing in the Junior ranks
and some like Miki and Yuna to stay away from GPS.

Here's the list of SB 2010-2011 of ladies at SA.

(5) 184.68 Carolina KOSTNER ITA World Championships 2011 30.04.2011

(7) 182.25 Alissa CZISNY USA World Championships 2011 30.04.2011

(15) 167.22 Ksenia MAKAROVA RUS World Championships 2011 30.04.2011

(23) 156.24 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO World Championships 2011 30.04.2011

(26) 154.54 Haruka IMAI JPN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2010 30.10.2010

(27) 153.71 Valentina MARCHEI ITA ISU GP Cup of Russia 2010 20.11.2010

(36) 149.08 Joshi HELGESSON SWE World Championships 2011 30.04.2011

(51) 133.86 Caroline ZHANG USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2010 23.10.2010

If you see these #s, you can tell how hard it is going to be for Caroline.

At Glacier, she socred 146.18

At Golden West, she score 127.80

You might wonder how she could get one spot on GPS with such a low SB of the last season.

Here is the World standings.

http://www.isuresults.com/ws/ws/wsladies.htm

This chart of the standings is made with the accumulation of the points
skaters have earned for the last not one but two seasons.
Despite of the Caroline's bad SB of the last season, she is still 30th
because of the point she earned during the previous season.
And that is probably why she got the spot at SA, also the host country can send three skaters.

Judging with Joshi Helgesson's score,
I think Caroline has to earn at least 150 to keep any hope for the next season.
A little more than she got at Glacier, but infront of the international judges.

 

[feraina]

(5) 184.68 Carolina KOSTNER ITA World Championships 2011 30.04.2011
(7) 182.25 Alissa CZISNY USA World Championships 2011 30.04.2011
(15) 167.22 Ksenia MAKAROVA RUS World Championships 2011 30.04.2011
(23) 156.24 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO World Championships 2011 30.04.2011
(26) 154.54 Haruka IMAI JPN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2010 30.10.2010
(27) 153.71 Valentina MARCHEI ITA ISU GP Cup of Russia 2010 20.11.2010
(36) 149.08 Joshi HELGESSON SWE World Championships 2011 30.04.2011
(51) 133.86 Caroline ZHANG USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2010 23.10.2010

If you see these #s, you can tell how hard it is going to be for Caroline.
At Glacier, she socred 146.18
At Golden West, she score 127.80

One should never casually compare scores across different competitions. SB scores are typically earned later in the season, as skaters get more polished with their programs and comfortable with their elements, and the judges get more generous with scores as well.

Caroline's Glacier Falls scores are decent for this early in the season.

At last year's first GP (NHK), the standings were:
1. Kostner (164.61)
2. Flatt (161.04)
3. Murakami (150.16)
4. Korpi (148.44)
5. Wagner (143.73)
6. Gedevanishvili (141.52)
7. C. Zhang (133.86)
...

So Caroline's 146.18 from Glacier Falls would've landed her around 4-5th at the first GP (her GW SP score of 53.65 is just shy of Rachae's 53.69 at third place at NHK; her GF FS score of 94.80 would've been 5th (Gedanishvili's 3rd place FS was 97.01).
If she can break 150, she might even medal at SA this year, and perhaps get invited to a 2nd GP.

Note that she competed at Glacier Falls, test skated at Champs Camp, and came back to compete again at Golden West. So while it might seem optimistic to hope she will do as well as her best skates at Glacier Falls and Golden West, it is also understandable that she might be fatigued by so much competition/monitoring in such a short period of time.

In any case, I don't think her situation is as dire as some of you are predicting!

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Wow, this thread spun off into all directions.

1. Can I just say that I did predict Alissa to win Nationals last season before the season even began (I actually predicted her to get silver at Worlds, but eh, you can't win them all)? But more than that, none of her skates were perfect but each demonstrated a newfound conviction in what she was doing. Each result demonstrated that the previous one wasn't a fluke. In fact, flashback to the GPF prediction thread: how many people said Alissa would fail due to nerves? Her jumps may be barely eeked out, but now she can land a 3-2-2 combo (which she hasn't in years). Hell, barely landing them with solid flow is better than not. She ur's less too.

2. One thing that interests me (in general) is this idea that nerves can't be worked/fixed. RD admittedly is congenitally wary of being excited for the American ladies, but in general, I see people wondering if Czisny will ever be truly over her nerves. To be fair, the same wonder about Verner and Kostner, and there are examples of those that don't do it. But then again - there are those that do. Think about Joannie Rochette. She came fifth in the Turin Olympics, then WON the Qualifying round of that year's Worlds. She was her usual inconsistent self the rest of the competition and missed the top five. Or in 2007: she started the season by beating Yu Na Kim at Skate Canada, only to come in 16th in the Worlds SP (5th in the LP). But in 2008 and 2009, she started putting together better results. The field hadn't changed all that much - but she became a stronger competitor. Hell, even when she was inconsistent during the Olympic season, she still came back strong at Nationals with that ridiculous LP and of course her performance at the Olympics is the very definition of grace in hard times.

Now Czisny has less leeway. She's competing against a stronger field in the USA. Additionally, she doesn't have much of a base value cushion compared to Joannie Rochette since her jumps tend to be weaker/less COPed. But I see Czisny doing something similar. I think she wants it more now, and I think her success this season means she knows she can get it. She's now practicing 3-3s (according to Jason) and regardless of whether she does them in competition, I think that demonstrates a skater committed to pushing herself further. It's clear that she's managing her nerves better than before (regardless of her first US championship, it's not like she had a great LP there.), committed to her sport more, and wants it. That to me... well, I'll continuing thinking she can medal in Nice.

3. Zhang.... you know, I actually enjoy watching her more now than I did when she was an uber-bendy-mule-kicking junior. But she's got a LOT more work to do, both physically and mentally. But I'm not convinced she wants to do that work, nor if she'll be able to.

4. As for Skate America.... well, it's not the toughest event, but there's a lot of ladies bunched in the middle there. I think it's being wildly optimistic, though, to think she could medal.

 

[R.D.]

It's kinda early to tell for sure what will happen with Zhang but THE WAY THINGS STAND NOW, it's not looking good.

As for Czisny, we have to see if she's still on the roller-coaster or whether she has truly found higher ground. No way to know until we see her compete this season...anything before that is purely guesswork/speculation.

 

[bluelutz]

One should never casually compare scores across different competitions. SB scores are typically earned later in the season, as skaters get more polished with their programs and comfortable with their elements, and the judges get more generous with scores as well.

Caroline's Glacier Falls scores are decent for this early in the season.

At last year's first GP (NHK), the standings were:
1. Kostner (164.61)
2. Flatt (161.04)
3. Murakami (150.16)
4. Korpi (148.44)
5. Wagner (143.73)
6. Gedevanishvili (141.52)
7. C. Zhang (133.86)
...

So Caroline's 146.18 from Glacier Falls would've landed her around 4-5th at the first GP (her GW SP score of 53.65 is just shy of Rachae's 53.69 at third place at NHK; her GF FS score of 94.80 would've been 5th (Gedanishvili's 3rd place FS was 97.01).
If she can break 150, she might even medal at SA this year, and perhaps get invited to a 2nd GP.

You just contradicted yourself right after you had stated
"One should never casually compare scores across different competitions."
I agree with that point, but also this is the sytem ISU uses for qualifying for GPS,
and we all use that just like you do.
You simply like to use that as the favorable interpretation for Caroline.

And this does not change the fact that
still this SA is the critical one for her competitive skating career.

"as skaters get more polished with their programs and comfortable with their elements,
and the judges get more generous with scores as well."

Yes, her last year's SB was from the earlier of the last season unlike most of others
because she did not make U.S. World/4CC team.
And most likely she is not making it in this season either.
That is why this SA is very important for her.

She has to score at least 150, though this # does not guarantee anything,
in front of the international judges unlike at Glacier which was the domestic competition.
If she does not score well, this might be her final GPS apprearance.

However, as I stated before, in this early season, anything can happen.
We will see.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

It's kinda early to tell for sure what will happen with Zhang but THE WAY THINGS STAND NOW, it's not looking good.

As for Czisny, we have to see if she's still on the roller-coaster or whether she has truly found higher ground. No way to know until we see her compete this season...anything before that is purely guesswork/speculation.

Speculation? On the internet? Since when?

 

[PolymerBob]

Let me throw something out there. I have NO inside information, NO secret sources, nothing, so this is all conjecture on my part. Could it be that she suffered some kind of a slight knee twist or ankle sprain during her short? Then, rather than skating blood and guts the next day, risking real injury, she decided to take it easy and do just enough to win against an inferior field. Maybe she just did all double jumps after seeing she had no serious competition. She spares herself real injury and can be in top shape in time for Skate America.

 

[Sylvia]

My hearsay information is that Zhang just had a bad day with 1 fall and 3(?) popped jumps in her Golden West FS.

In general, I wouldn't read too much into summer competition scores if they are lower than expected. I think it's a good sign that Caroline has competed in 3.5 summer competitions since May, including a decent showing at Glacier Falls, in order to prepare herself for Skate America.

 

[Violet Bliss]

You just contradicted yourself right after you had stated
"One should never casually compare scores across different competitions."

I think feraina brought up and analyzed the data to illustrate the statement.

The one thing I am absolutely certain of is that Caroline should never ever read forum discussions about her.

 

[herios]

My hearsay information is that Zhang just had a bad day with 1 fall and 3(?) popped jumps in her Golden West FS.

QUOTE]

Thank you. That explains it. I was scratching my head over that score. The fall I figured by the -1 seen in her score. So she screwed 50% of her jumping passes.
If such a FS won, I kinda feel sorry for the spectators in the first place. What an event, sort of "C" category.

 

[mskater93]

As for Czisny, we have to see if she's still on the roller-coaster or whether she has truly found higher ground. No way to know until we see her compete this season...anything before that is purely guesswork/speculation.

But the team around her is different now with a different approach in how they operate versus who was on the team before. Jason and Yuka do things differently with a different influence and method than Julie B did.

 

[krenseby]

But the team around her is different now with a different approach in how they operate versus who was on the team before. Jason and Yuka do things differently with a different influence and method than Julie B did.

The thing that bothers me is that not everyone can have a team of coaches like Jason and Yuka. And I wish our coaches in the US were just as good as the two of them. Think about the following scenario: A skater has jump issues that would be fixed by Jason and Yuka, but in fact they have another coach that doesn't have the same approach and therefore their jump problems continue. Isn't that sad? Good coaching really makes a difference, doesn't it?

 

[R.D.]

But the team around her is different now with a different approach in how they operate versus who was on the team before. Jason and Yuka do things differently with a different influence and method than Julie B did.

Yes, but ultimately it's the athlete, on her own, out there on the ice, making things happen.

 

[feraina]

You just contradicted yourself right after you had stated
"One should never casually compare scores across different competitions."

I said "casually" -- which means, for instance, by comparing late-season scores from WC's against early-season GP's or even earlier summer comps. I didn't say that Caroline getting 145-150 would earn her a GP spot next season, I said she might place okay, and perhaps even sufficient to get a second GP -- although I don't know with the new GP invitation/substitution policy whether this is now still possible. One would think that someone who has only 1 GP and does well should be allowed to be invited to a later GP (as Alissa Czisny did her first great GP season), but now it seems the substitution list might be finalized long before the GP list even starts, and the host nation may not get to pick whom out of the substitute list anyway...

You simply like to use that as the favorable interpretation for Caroline.

Actually, I tried to keep down the "interpretations" and concentrate on the objective statistics.

And this does not change the fact that still this SA is the critical one for her competitive skating career.

It is certainly true that this SA assignment is critical for her. As for whether it's do-or-die on the international scene, that remains to be seen. USFSA just assigned Alexe Gilles to a senior B, and this is after a truly abysmal season last year, and similarly abysmal scores at summer comps this summer (I'm not sure that she landed a single clean triple). Caroline is younger than Alexe and had achieved a lot more than Alexe before puberty and her slide in results/standings, so I'd think that USFSA would at least consider giving her a senior B next season, if she does reasonably well at National's and next summer and is serious about continuing, even if she doesn't get over 150 at SA this year.

She has to score at least 150, though this # does not guarantee anything,
in front of the international judges unlike at Glacier which was the domestic competition.

Actually, Caroline has never had any favors from domestic judges. Unlike most US skaters, she scores better with international judges than domestic ones.

Anyway, I just cannot agree with all these so-called "fans" calling for skaters to quit while they are still training hard, putting a lot of time, effort, and money into this sport, and sacrificing a normal child/adolescent's life to do this. I think "fans" ought to be fanning skaters' drive to skate and compete, not to pour cold water on them and denigrating their effort and hopes so casually and callously.

 

[feraina]

If such a FS won, I kinda feel sorry for the spectators in the first place. What an event, sort of "C" category.

It's not uncommon for summer comps. Especially as a lot of the good skaters with drew (e.g. Ashley Wagner, Leah Keiser). The only disappointment was Caroline's FS. Her SP was good, too. The remaining skaters all skated pretty much at their level, as the spectators well ought to have expected.

 

[feraina]

And I wish our coaches in the US were just as good as the two of them.

??? Jason and Yuka do coach in the US! And we have plenty of other good coaches who've coached former world and Olympic medalists, as well as current contenders: Frank Carroll (who currently has Mirai & Courtney), John Nicks (Ashley & Leah), Peter Oppegard (Yu-na Kim), to name a few. Jason & Yuka are not miracle workers for every skater. There's fashion that comes in waves in the skating coaching world, too. Just think how popular Brian Orser was a couple years ago, and he rose from virtual unknown (in the coaching world) just prior to that, and now all his best skaters have left him. Jason & Yuka are the current hot favorites, with a very similar obscure beginning (as coaches) and meteoric rise as Brian Orser enjoyed. But no coach has a magic pill for every single skater. I particular worry for someone like Adam Rippon, who's been hopping from one "hot" coach to the next, hoping for the magic cure for his 3A. I hope he sticks it out with Jason & Yuka for a while even if he doesn't shoot back up this season, because he's very talented, and he needs to stay with a coach long enough to realize his potentials.

 

[prettykeys]

Anyway, I just cannot agree with all these so-called "fans" calling for skaters to quit while they are still training hard, putting a lot of time, effort, and money into this sport, and sacrificing a normal child/adolescent's life to do this. I think "fans" ought to be fanning skaters' drive to skate and compete, not to pour cold water on them and...their effort and hopes so casually and callously.

I must agree with feraina.

 

[PolymerBob]

I must agree with feraina.

As do I.

I still believe that Caroline's problems can be solved. Where my opinion really differs from most skating fans is what her worst problems are. The consensus on the skating message boards is that her jumping technique and basic skating techniques are her biggest issues. While it is true she needs work in those areas, it is equally true that her horrendous technique and poor basics put her on 14 podiums.

Nobody likes to talk about it, but my belief is that Caroline's biggest issues now are physical, not technical. What has been holding her back the last 2 seasons is mostly the number that appears when she steps on a scale. Once she gets this under control, and I have seen improvement, other things will fall into place.