Cup of Russia - Preview

[Mathman]

Takahashi is Oda's only competition at NHK? Lambiel is at NHK as well.

Oh. Yeah. What Slutskayafan said.

Weir and Sandhu have slim to no chance of catching Preubert or Takahashi, so it's pretty much all over with Lambiel, Joubert, Oda, Lysacek, Preaubert and Takahashi in the finals.

Maybe van der Perren can be a spoiler?

 

[slutskayafan21]

Oh. Yeah. What Slutskayafan said.

Weir and Sandhu have slim to no chance of catching Preubert or Takahashi, so it's pretty much all over with Lambiel, Joubert, Oda, Lysacek, Preaubert and Takahashi in the finals.

Maybe van der Perren can be a spoiler?

Van der Perren does not score that well in any area but jumps. He will have to jump lights out and hope the others misses alot of their jumps to be spoiler. I agree with you on who will be in the final although the erratic Takahashi could bomb NHK enough, resulting in either a much lower point total or a finish worse then 3rd there, for Weir or Sandhu(really doubt Sandhu)to overtake him even with a 2nd at Cup of Russia.

The way Joubert looked at his previous event it is hard to see him not taking Cup of Russia.

I never thought before the year Preaubert would be in the final but credit him for taking advantage of some easier fields, although beating Sandhu a potential GP finalist somewhat merits his spots further.

 

[flying camel]

I think Meir's LP score was higher then Alissa's. I hope Alissa skates her best and wins, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

 

[R.D.]

I hope Alissa skates her best and wins, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

Same here. If anyone should bump Meissner I want it to be Czisny.

However, that said, Meissner would be stronger competition for the likes of Ando and Kim in the GPF than Czisny would (Kimmie is more predictable and generally can be counted on not to totally melt down).

 

[Kasey]

Would love to see either Meier or Czisny win CoR and get into the final...I think Meier even moreso than Czisny, who at least had a shot at it last year (and bombed). Both are beautiful to watch, both have high levels in spins, and some inconsistancy in jumps. I think this event is going to be fun to watch, for ladies, men's and dance (not so much the pairs).

 

[hockeyfan228]

TRUE It's a season of calculations in the race to be in the Finals. But it is not without its faults.

TEB was loaded with top tier Ladies and only one top tier Men. Why risk a tough entry list when in one event it was Nakano v. Sebestyen as the top competition?

At the beginning of the season, each event had one each of a top 1-3 pick, 4-6 pick, 7-9 pick, and 10-12 pick. TEB had two top-tier men, Joubert and Buttle, but Buttle was injured, not something that was predictable when the fields were chosen in the summer. Even last year at TEB when Buttle was ranked third and Joubert sixth based on 2005 Worlds, most people thought Joubert was really the top skater, and Buttle's true rank was in the 4-6 range. On paper, if you add up all the placements of the top 12 skaters, it's fairly even:

SA: 26
SC: 26
CoC: 28
TEB: 26
CoR: 24
NHK: 26

Even though CoR was nominally a stronger field to start, it was barely stronger, and Sandhu, Klimkin, and Weir have not exactly been consistent over the last few years; each has been capable of bombing or medalling at GP. Apart from the top 12, there were no missing phenoms among the Men from last year's Worlds; van der Perren comes closest, but Oda was already ranked based on his strong Worlds debut.

The very top among the men is relatively consistent, with Lambiel, Buttle, Lysacek, and Weir likely to make up half of the top 7 (if healthly) and maybe top five-six in a Worlds not immediately after the Olympics. Among the women, the field is far more open.

Among the women, the breakdowns are:

SA: 34* (avg ~7)
SC: 26 (avg 6.5)
CoC: for whatever reason, no 9-12 skater chosen initially, so total is 14, and hardly comparable. (avg 4.67)
TEB: 26 (avg 6.5)
CoR: 27 (avg 6.75)
NHK: 29** (avg 7.25)

*Artificially inflated, because there were five top 12 skaters
**Artificially inflated, because Mao was ranked 12 when she replaced Cohen in the top 12.

The difference among the women is that the top 6 has not been consistent over the past years, Ando, Kostner, and Sebestyen can be #4 or #15 at Worlds, and no one knew if Yu-Na Kim would make the transition to seniors. The rosters are more of a crapshoot in terms of balancing difficulty based on prior year performances, especially with the Kwan/Slutskaya/Cohen trio out and a bunch of young phenoms struggling for dominance against the old ladies, like 18-year-old Ando..

 

[antmanb]

I think what you mean to say is that SC is global (open to everyone) while only Europeans compete at Euros. They both are international comps.

Technically Skate Cananda is an international competition and Europeans is an international Championship.

Ant

 

[chuckm]

I have always believed that some host federations pick their skaters to ensure that their own skaters place well. Cup of Russia has a weak Ladies rosters because Volchkova and Sokolova need all the help they can get. Cup of China was light because China hoped Binshu Xu would turn in a great debut performance. France didn't have any good lady skaters, so they picked the best skaters they could, and that has been their pattern over the years. NHK always picks the best Japanese skaters and usually the others are not competitive with them. Skate Canada fielded Suguri (not usually good in the early season), Czisny (vulnerable in the jump department) and Yu-Na Kim, a new shooter. Skate America was an anomaly this year because while the US featured its top 3 ladies, they also picked Mao Asada, the GPF champion. Miki went to the GPF last season and she has always been a good early-season skater. So far SA was the toughest competition of them all, and that hasn't been the case for many years.

 

[R.D.]

^ that's an interesting point and I've never thought of it that way.

But isn't it the ISU that does the assignments, or do the skating "federations" have their own say as well?

 

[slutskayafan21]

I have always believed that some host federations pick their skaters to ensure that their own skaters place well. Cup of Russia has a weak Ladies rosters because Volchkova and Sokolova need all the help they can get. Cup of China was light because China hoped Binshu Xu would turn in a great debut performance. France didn't have any good lady skaters, so they picked the best skaters they could, and that has been their pattern over the years. NHK always picks the best Japanese skaters and usually the others are not competitive with them. Skate Canada fielded Suguri (not usually good in the early season), Czisny (vulnerable in the jump department) and Yu-Na Kim, a new shooter. Skate America was an anomaly this year because while the US featured its top 3 ladies, they also picked Mao Asada, the GPF champion. Miki went to the GPF last season and she has always been a good early-season skater. So far SA was the toughest competition of them all, and that hasn't been the case for many years.

NHK brought Lysacek to compete with the Japanese men last year, and Lambiel this year. Pretty tough competition for the Japanese men they chose especialy this year.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

^ that's an interesting point and I've never thought of it that way.

But isn't it the ISU that does the assignments, or do the skating "federations" have their own say as well?

It is generally assumed that Speedy and the Russian Fed are buddy buddy.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Would love to see either Meier or Czisny win CoR and get into the final...I think Meier even moreso than Czisny, who at least had a shot at it last year (and bombed). Both are beautiful to watch, both have high levels in spins, and some inconsistancy in jumps. I think this event is going to be fun to watch, for ladies, men's and dance (not so much the pairs).

If either Meier or Czisny win COR she will only tie Rochette and Meissner. Rochetter is presently in position to win the tie breaker.

Joe

 

[Mathman]

If either Meier or Czisny wins CoR she will beat Meissner on the first tie-breaker and almost surely beat Rochette on the second tie-breaker.

Rochette has only 325.38 points, and both Alissa (169.01 for one event) and Sarah (163.69) are on a pace to beat that, even off fourth place finishes. If they skate well enough to win CoR, they will most likely be way ahead of Joannie's point total. (Of course, they can't both win.)

If Sebestyen gets fourth, she will beat Meissner on the first tie-breaker but probably lose to Rochette on the second tie-breaker.

 

[visaliakid]

Cup of Russia ladies event I would not place bets on... too dicey for me...it really is a wide-open event... don't see any clear outright favorite. If Czisny was lights out with her jumps, she would win most any international comp. But she isn't! But of all those entered, if you ask me who I would rather see win and make the GPF.... Czisny is my choice.

I will predict this however: In Dance: Belbin and Agosto will get a very :disagree: unpleasant result; both in marks and from the crowd with their insipid free dance.

I will be waiting with baited breath to hear John Baldwin's next on-camera meltdown!

 

[antmanb]

It is generally assumed that Speedy and the Russian Fed are buddy buddy.

I thought the Russian federation were one of the biggest detractors of COP when it was being forced in by $peedy?

Ant

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I thought the Russian federation were one of the biggest detractors of COP when it was being forced in by $peedy?

Ant

Ya gotta play the game.

 

[antmanb]

Ya gotta play the game.

Hey Joe i don't understand what you mean by this statement?

Ant

 

[Mathman]

I think the biggest concern of the Russian Federation regarding the CoP was that it was rushed into place for the Moscow World Championships without, in the opinion of a lot of observers, being thoroughly tested. Pizeev didn't want some gigantic flaw in the judging system to be revealed "on his watch," casting doubt on the result of the first world championship event in Moscow in a hundred years.

Plus, I think he was looking ahead to th Olympics, where Russia had every hope of sweeping the gold medals and didn't want anything to come along to upset the apple cart.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Hey Joe i don't understand what you mean by this statement?Ant

It's not important. It's just some comment made by Zhulin some time ago that the Amricans don't know how to play the game.

Joe

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I think the biggest concern of the Russian Federation regarding the CoP was that it was rushed into place for the Moscow World Championships without, in the opinion of a lot of observers, being thoroughly tested. Pizeev didn't want some gigantic flaw in the judging system to be revealed "on his watch," casting doubt on the result of the first world championship event in Moscow in a hundred years.

Plus, I think he was looking ahead to th Olympics, where Russia had every hope of sweeping the gold medals and didn't want anything to come along to upset the apple cart.

That's reasonable specs but I think Russia had the most advantage of winning 4 medals in the Olympics regarding any scoring system.