Do any of the newcomers have a chance to medal?

[Mathman]

In ladies, there seems to be a log jam on the podium with Michelle and Sasha (despite recent problems) pretty much ceded two spots, and with third place to be contested by Kirk, Nikodinov, Liang, (will Mok be there?)

Do any of the younger generation have a chance this year? We have Meissner, Taylor, Kahle, Bugaeve, Czisny all waiting in the wings for the 2010 Olympic cycle, but what about now?

Who's hot in the other three disciplines?

Mathman

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Definitely Alissa Czney(sp)

Brauninger (if he is not too injured)

Have not seen any new Pairs - only the usual suspects Maybe one of Vise Ladies and a partner.

Goodwin and Bommentre (She's from Indonesia! and a beauty)

 

[ChiSk8Fan]

Hard time for newcomers

It is a pre-Olympic year, and the US team will be trying to earn as many spots for the Olympics in all the disciplines as it can by doing well at this Worlds Championships. Therefore, in predictable fashion, and using the older 6.0 system, the US Nationals will dictate who the USFS wants to send to the Worlds to get those spots.

In the Ladies, you want to earn three places. Kwan and Cohen are both Top 6 skaters, and may even earn two medals at Worlds. Choosing a third is the only real contest, and this person may place second at Nationals. Kirk, Corwin, Nikodinov will all skate for this placement. Anyone with less international experience won't have a chance unless everyone really skates poorly and they skate brilliantly.

In the Men's event, Team USA wants to earn three places. Weir and Goebel are Top 6 skaters, with one medal a definite possibility. Michael Weiss is a proven Top 6 - 8 skater, and places higher than Jahnke, who will definitely not go if he doesn't do wonderful triple axels. My bet is they will send Weir, Goebel and Weiss (now or never for Weiss) if Weiss skates cleanly and/or respectably.

In the Pairs event, the USA hopes to have both teams place in the top 8, but this is highly unlikely. There are three Chinese, two Russian and two Canadian pairs all at the top. A 6th place for Inoue and Baldwin would be fantastic, but the second teams of Don/Hunt, Scott/Dulebohn and Orsher/Lucash are not top 8 pairs, and more likely 9 -12. This will not help the US earn a 3rd spot for the Olympics. My guess is here is where a true battle of which team skates the best will earn that second spot. My feeling is that Don/Hunt are sentimental favorites because of their coach, but Scott/Dulebohn have the best unison and refinement. Orsher/Lukash are very strong with big tricks, but lack unison and refinement at this point because they are young. The best skating will win the second spot.

In the Dance event, Belbin/Agosto can help the US earn three dance teams to the Olympics, if they medal and Gregory/Petukov place 6 - 8. How ironic that they probably won't be able to earn one of those spots for Turino. These two teams will earn the spots for Worlds if no one becomes injured or ill. No other team will be sent due to lack of experience and skill levels high enough to place in the top 8 at Worlds. Maybe new teams will go to Turino, but this year the experienced will earn the placements.

Nationals may be very predictable this year.

 

[RealtorGal]

I think the only newcomer with an outside chance to medal for the ladies is Czisny. I think Kirk's and Nikodinov's potential this year is a big question mark. This is probably Amber Corwin's best shot at making the World team.

 

[SkateFan4Life]

It is a pre-Olympic year, and the US team will be trying to earn as many spots for the Olympics in all the disciplines as it can by doing well at this Worlds Championships. Therefore, in predictable fashion, and using the older 6.0 system, the US Nationals will dictate who the USFS wants to send to the Worlds to get those spots.

I certainly hope that the judges won't automatically "give" any of the skaters a spot on the World team unless he, she, or they deserve it by their performances. If they give a slot to Michael Weiss, for example, over younger skaters who outskate him at Nationals, just because he's a seasoned international competitor who has won World medals in the past - ugh!

IMHO, of course.

 

[Ptichka]

I'd like to see Matthews & Zavozin (dance) medal. They are perhaps the best junior team in the world today. Long term, I think they have more potential then Gregory & Petukhov. This year, though, I'll be happy with them getting bronze. Assuming all teams stay together, I gully expect a real rivalry between Belbin & Agosto and M&Z in another three years or so. Also, if Belbin doesn't get her citizenship in time for Turin, the third team will become all important because it will go to Turin as well. Of course, with any luck both B&A and G&P will do so well at Worlds that America will get to send three teams to Turin; it's quite possible if B&A and G&P place 3d and 10th or 4th and 9th respectively.

I agree with ChiSk8Fan though that this year M&Z should just go to Junior Worlds.

 

[Matt]

Czisny (I believe the correct spelling) is a definite factor. Is Meissner up in the senior ranks yet? If she is, she could make some waves. I've heard good things about Bugaeva too, but she's not a medal threat

The big problem is in Ice Dance, when you consider that nearly all of the US's top teams have a skater who isn't a US citizen and can't compete: Tanith Belbin is probably the closest to getting hers in time. Denis Petukhov's might get in there, on account of the fact that he's married to Melissa Gregory, who is a US National. I wasn't aware that Maxim Zavozin had US citizenship (was he born in this country or was he nationalised?). Goodwin/Bonnemettre are out as well, AFAIK (she was adopted from Indonesia). Any ideas as to who we do have on Dance to take, assuming all of the above (with the exception of B/A if her citizenship comes in) can't go?

 

[doubleaxelcm]

I'm cheering for Meissner. I saw her at an earlier competition this year competing senior and while she didn't medal (I don't think) she showed a lot of potential and my guess is by the time nationals rolls around she will have cleaned herself up enough to be a contender. She was landing triple triples and she looks like she will be a force to be reckoned with in a few years, if not now!

 

[attyfan]

Newcomers, such as Meissner, could medal at Nats, even though they are too young to make the World team (Remember Naomi Nari Nam?) So, the newcomers might medal, and someone with experience be sent, anyway.

 

[hockeyfan228]

I think it may depend on how strong Kwan and Cohen are. If they rock at Nationals, then I think there might be a better chance for one of the younger skaters who is not age-eligible to make the podium, much like Mai Asada did in Japan, because a Kwan/Cohen combination would likely earn the 13 points to qualify three Ladies for Torino. The reputation of the #3 participant in Moscow wouldn't be as important. If two younger skaters end up in 3rd and 4th place, USFS could use 4C's as a skate-off among the experienced skaters, but I suspect if Kirk, Corwin, or Nikodinov came in a strong fourth, that skater would go to Moscow.

 

[Ptichka]

Denis Petukhov's might get in there, on account of the fact that he's married to Melissa Gregory, who is a US National. I wasn't aware that Maxim Zavozin had US citizenship (was he born in this country or was he nationalised?).

Actually, Denis and Max are in the exact same situation. They both got their green cards (marriage speeds up green card, not citizenship) at about the same time, and that was earlier than Tanith's. If all goes well (you can't ever assume that with INS), they should be all set by 2006.

Goodwin/Bonnemettre are out as well, AFAIK (she was adopted from Indonesia).

Actually, that is not correct. If she was adopted by US citizens, she automatically becomes their child. Before the age of 18, a child of US citizens gets his/her citizenship automatically. It shouldn't be more than a formality. Of course, if that is not officially done before the 18th birthday, the process becomes far more complex. Unfortunately, adoptive parents often don't realize that, don't do the proper paperwork, and years later their kids find out they aren't legally Americans.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Actually, Denis and Max are in the exact same situation. They both got their green cards (marriage speeds up green card, not citizenship) at about the same time, and that was earlier than Tanith's. If all goes well (you can't ever assume that with INS), they should be all set by 2006.


Actually, that is not correct. If she was adopted by US citizens, she automatically becomes their child. Before the age of 18, a child of US citizens gets his/her citizenship automatically. It shouldn't be more than a formality. Of course, if that is not officially done before the 18th birthday, the process becomes far more complex. Unfortunately, adoptive parents often don't realize that, don't do the proper paperwork, and years later their kids find out they aren't legally Americans.

If, and it is possible, a baby is born on UN grounds, the parents, I believe, must take it to a consulate to certify citizenship. Since the baby already has US citizenship, it becomes more interesting if the parents aren't American because they can claim American citizenship by birth and still seek a dual citizenship from a consulate. Of course, this has noting to do with figure skating but you never know if a skater just might be touring the UN.

Joe

 

[Sylvia]

The "newcomers" (rookie seniors) at 2005 Nationals are:

Ladies--Kimmie Meissner, Katy Taylor, Shanell Noji (1st, 2nd and 5th place juniors in 2004), Emily Hughes (junior last year), Katherine Hadford and Megan Williams-Stewart. The class of 2004 rookies returning in 2005 include Jane Bugaeva (9th), Danielle Kahle (10th), Stephanie Rosenthal (13th), and Erica Archambault (19th). Yebin Mok and Beatrisa Liang (both recovering from injury) will be making their 5th trip to senior nationals and Alissa Czisny her 4th.

Men--Chris Toland, Jason Wong, Wesley Campbell (top 3 juniors from 2004), and Daniel Steffel.

Pairs--Shantel Jordan/Jeremy Barrett and Brooke Castile/Ben Okolski (top 2 juniors from 2004), and first-year teams Katie Beriau/Joseph Gazzola, Stephanie Kuban/Laureano Ibarra, Julian Burns/Themistocles Leftheris, Marisa Sharma/Amir Ganaba, and Lauren-Marie Simm/Devin Matthews.

Dance--Morgan Matthews/Max Zavozin (2004 jr. champs), Alisa Allapach/Benjamin Westenberger (10th in junior last year), Elizabeth Palmer/Ryland Stucke (2004 Novice pewter medalists), Stephanie Ellis/Ian Ross-Frye, and 1st year teams Tiffany Stiegler/Sergey Magerovskiy, Kate Slattery & Chuen-Gun Lee, Lindsay Evans/Kevin O'Keefe, and Francesca Cheli/Alex Clark.

 

[Mathman]

Thanks, Sylvia.

MM

 

[RealtorGal]

Do Tiffany Stiegler/Sergey Magerovskiy have any chance at all? How good are they?

 

[Matt]

The "newcomers" (rookie seniors) at 2005 Nationals are:

Ladies--Kimmie Meissner, Katy Taylor, Shanell Noji (1st, 2nd and 5th place juniors in 2004), Emily Hughes (junior last year), Katherine Hadford and Megan Williams-Stewart. The class of 2004 rookies returning in 2005 include Jane Bugaeva (9th), Danielle Kahle (10th), Stephanie Rosenthal (13th), and Erica Archambault (19th). Yebin Mok and Beatrisa Liang (both recovering from injury) will be making their 5th trip to senior nationals and Alissa Czisny her 4th.

Men--Chris Toland, Jason Wong, Wesley Campbell (top 3 juniors from 2004), and Daniel Steffel.

Pairs--Shantel Jordan/Jeremy Barrett and Brooke Castile/Ben Okolski (top 2 juniors from 2004), and first-year teams Katie Beriau/Joseph Gazzola, Stephanie Kuban/Laureano Ibarra, Julian Burns/Themistocles Leftheris, Marisa Sharma/Amir Ganaba, and Lauren-Marie Simm/Devin Matthews.

Dance--Morgan Matthews/Max Zavozin (2004 jr. champs), Alisa Allapach/Benjamin Westenberger (10th in junior last year), Elizabeth Palmer/Ryland Stucke (2004 Novice pewter medalists), Stephanie Ellis/Ian Ross-Frye, and 1st year teams Tiffany Stiegler/Sergey Magerovskiy, Kate Slattery & Chuen-Gun Lee, Lindsay Evans/Kevin O'Keefe, and Francesca Cheli/Alex Clark.

Is Tiffany Stiegler the same one that was skating pairs with Johnny Stiegler a couple of years ago? I wasn't aware she had switched disciplines

 

[Ptichka]

Is Tiffany Stiegler the same one that was skating pairs with Johnny Stiegler a couple of years ago? I wasn't aware she had switched disciplines

Yup. She and Magerovsky are training with Shpilband now.

 

[Tony Wheeler]

I used to love Kirk but based on what she showed last year at Worlds along with her performance this year at Cup of Russia and even Campbells, I'd say she's out as a bronze medal chance. Her programs are about as basic as can be, and it really looks like there's no effort on her part to make the footwork harder, or the spins a little different than usual, or any of that, and I still think her programs (LP) look very juniorish.

Since Worlds is CoP now and Jenny only pulled off 18th in the LP last year at Worlds with 4 triples, I just can't see how the USFS would ever send her back, even if it is true that the 3rd place American finisher at Worlds won't be a factor when it comes to determining the spots for the 2006 Olympics.

I'd love to see Corwin get the bronze at be able to go to Worlds, but I do have a feeling it's going to be one of the younger girls. Meissner probably has the ability to get 3rd but since she's not age-eligible, you have to wonder if the USFS would give her a medal knowing that they'd have to send their 4th place finisher to Worlds (which might not look as good from an international standpoint).

 

[Mathman]

Since Worlds is CoP now and Jenny only pulled off 18th in the LP last year at Worlds with 4 triples, I just can't see how the USFS would ever send her back, even if it is true that the 3rd place American finisher at Worlds won't be a factor when it comes to determining the spots for the 2006 Olympics.

I'd love to see Corwin get the bronze at be able to go to Worlds, but I do have a feeling it's going to be one of the younger girls. Meissner probably has the ability to get 3rd but since she's not age-eligible, you have to wonder if the USFS would give her a medal knowing that they'd have to send their 4th place finisher to Worlds (which might not look as good from an international standpoint).

Tony, there has been a lot of speculation about this. Usually USFS automatically sends the three top finishers to Worlds without debate. Some other countries (notably Japan) have different procedures for making the selection.

Are you saying that USFS might determine beforehand who they want to send to Worlds, and then will instruct the judges to rig Nationals accordingly? What if Jenny skates the best, but USFS has already decided that "they will never send her back" to Worlds because she has not done well in the past?

What if Kimmie skates the best. Will they leave her off the U.S. Nats podium because she is not eligible for Worlds?

Am I just naive to hope that the skating will be judged fairly, letting the chips fall where they may?

Mathman

 

[Doggygirl]

Does the USFS work like the US Gymnastics organization??

Meaning the US governing body can ultimately decide who makes the world team regardless of placements at Nationals?

I sure hope that the actual judging on the day of comp isn't rigged. Much more possible (easier anyway) under 6.0 than COP. I would hate to see that for the skaters.

I also don't like in Gymnastics how the national organization can overrule the results to pick the world team, although I can understand it - particularly if top competitors miss Nationals due to injury but are recovered by worlds. Unfortunate that those politics come into play.

Just wondering what the specific rules are within the USFS for choosing the world team - or maybe it's mostly political / subjective.

Anyone know for sure how this works?

DG