Does Irina have a realistic chance of winning W05?

[Taan]

as long as Irina is healthy, SHE WILL WIN. I was blown away when I saw her sp from CoC. That is the the best sp she has **ever** had. CoP Loves Irina. SHe was getting Level3 on most of her elements. Her spins are incredible. Her footwork is incredible. Her jumps are spectacular. Her choreography is the best its ever been. And its still early season.

She is very very clever the way she is doing her spiral, the position is not beautiful but it is very original and difficult and level3!


I cant wait to see Irina + Kwan judged in the same CoP competetion because i suspect the results will be shocking

Irina is absolutely made for CoP judging. She should trounce Shizuka at CoR and then trounce the rest at Worlds

 

[Ladskater]

I think Irina has a good chance. I am rooting for her. She has been there done that, she is a world champion and knows what it takes to win.

.She has home field advantage, and her music choices are good. I haven't seen her sp yet, but I like her choice of Shostakovich's the bolt. At least it is oh no not Tchaikovsky ballet like Nut Cracker again. The bolt is charming, and exciting. She is keeping Tchaikovsky's the queen of spades for her lp. Good choice too. At least it is not another water down swan lake, or Dark Eyes (Roma melody) the third time around. I hope Irina will keep her costume with the heart. That design only works on her, IMO no one can pull that off like Irina.

The Bolt was Brian Orser's music in the 88 Olympics at Calgary.

 

[Rgirl]

I certainly hope Irina can win the '05 WGM. For all the great skating she's done over so many years, I'd love for her to be more than a one-time world champion. She's said that skating at home makes her nervous because of the roar of the crowd. But after all she's been through with her mother's and her own health, I hope she can go out there and thrive on those cheers. She looked like the class of the field by a long shot at Cup of China. Of course I'd be happy if Michelle or Sasha won, but this year, my heart is with Irina.
Rgirl

 

[Vash01]

ITA Rgirl. This year my heart too is with Irina.

Vash

 

[dfj]

ITA Rgirl. This year my heart too is with Irina.

Vash

So is mine. But then it always has been. I'm just thrilled to see her back and in fighting shape - she is amazing.

 

[wvgal57]

I'd love to see Irina repeat her World championship title again. I am however, very realistic in knowing the depth of Irina's health situation. She plans to take it one competition at a time, still planning to skate and compete and maintain a full schedule.

Irina's jumps are going really well in practices at home but she still has to have the stamina to pull off the big 3/3's in her program and be able to do her spins and footwork. She's working on 3 different 3/3's at this time but has acknowledged that she wants to work on her program component areas during the last part of the training season.

Irina knows she can do the 3/3's. I don't doubt she'll have at least one 3/3 at some time this season. I don't think realistically we'll ever see 2 3/3's. She's able to do her 3lutz/3loop now, her 3sal/3loop, her 3sal/3loop/3loop and one more 3/3 at this time.

 

[Excidra2001]

Whether she can win worlds or not, I don't know but she sure is looking really good out there. After watching her SP at coc, it seems to me that she and coach Zhanna worked on every single element in her repertoire. her jumps and combos is better then ever, her presence on the ice is so commanding, she took it up a notch with her spins and footwork. I just think there is a whole new Slutskaya on the ice. I love how she never fails to reinvent her self each season, with new programs and new choreographers. Its very rare to see her have the same choreograher for more then two seasons. I'm glad for that, because each choreographer she has worked with throughout her career has played a big part in creating such an exquisite and lovely skater. Also, most of the credit should be given to her long time coach, Zhanna Gormova who coached Slutskaya to world title and Olympic medal. She is a terrific coach.

 

[skatepixie]

I think it all depends on her health. Thats basically all I have to say...

 

[R.D.]

This season may very well be Irina's best chance at a second world championship. How high that chance is depends on many factors, including her health. In fact, I would throw my support behind "anyone but Kwan or Cohen" for world title this year. :agree: Not intended as a bash, but I'm kind of tired of both of them at this point.

I don't believe Marshalls will give us an excellent prediction for worlds for several factors. It is under 6.0. They only skate one program: a format Sasha can thrive with. Irina and Shizuka will be exhausted.

I don't think any competition could serve as a great prediction factor, for reasons I gave in other posts. Not too sure about the thriving part. IIRC she only won one of the competitions with this format.

 

[Fossi]

I hope and pray Irina will live up to the hype of the COP being made for her and the World title being hers. I've seen Sasha crowned World Champion before the event, just as I'm seeing it in Irina now, and I've seen Sasha blow it. I hope Irina won't blow it.

 

[Kuchana]

I hope and pray Irina will live up to the hype of the COP being made for her and the World title being hers. I've seen Sasha crowned World Champion before the event, just as I'm seeing it in Irina now, and I've seen Sasha blow it. I hope Irina won't blow it.

Well unlike Sasha, Irina's already been a World Champ so the hype is valid.
Irina will definitely present a formidable challenge but I think it's really too close to call. Depending on who skates their best that night and who messes up of course. And last but not least, some fair judging! *I'm praying*

 

[BronzeisGolden]

I think she has a great shot at the World title. She has been incredibly consistent so far this season and has done quite well under the COP. Honestly, I'd love to see another Irina vs. Michelle showdown at Worlds....it has been too long! However, there are so many other brilliant skaters. It will be much more of a fight than it was in 2001 or 2002 for both Michelle and Irina, but I have a feeling they will both be vying for the Gold in Moscow.

 

[attyfan]

Under the CoP, could Irina and Michelle tie?

 

[euterpe]

Marshall's can't be used to predict anything.

First of all, it is judged under 6.0, not CoP. Second, Arakawa will not be there. Third, Cohen and Kwan will be competing in only their second event of the year, and the FS only. Their season hasn't really begun yet and they haven't had a chance to test their programs in a regular ISU competition. What we will see this week will most likely NOT be the same as what we see at Worlds from them.

Remember, KWAN won the winter cheesefest last year, and Cohen was third behind Arakawa after a disastrous skate with 3 falls. That result was certainly no predictor of 2004 World.

 

[Crizzy]

Euterpe, last year's Marshall's is "kind of" a predictor because all three women made the 2004 World's podium just not in that order.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought that doing single triple jumps garner more points than doing a 3/3/3? Under CoP, a skater is only allowed to do 7 jumping pass including the axel and to do 7 triples the skater would have to do a 3/3. So if Irina plans to do 3/3/3 that means she's only allowed 4 more triples and her points will be lower then because single triple jumps is worth more. Sorry, can someone elaborate more on that 3/3/3? I thought it is more ideal to do the 7 jumping pass consisting of 6 triple jumps executed cleanly with a double axel or the above plus a 3/3 to get the 7 triples plus the 2 axel.

 

[nicole_l]

Crizzy, I could be wrong, but my understanding of the 7 jumping passes including the axel rule was that one could have 7 jumping passes where a combination or sequence counted as one "jumping pass."
So if a lady landed 2 combinations, one a 3/3 and one a 3/3/3, plus 4 more solo triples and a double axel, she could end up landing 9 triples in a program.
That's just how I interpreted it, though. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[gkelly]

Crizzy, I could be wrong, but my understanding of the 7 jumping passes including the axel rule was that one could have 7 jumping passes where a combination or sequence counted as one "jumping pass."
So if a lady landed 2 combinations, one a 3/3 and one a 3/3/3, plus 4 more solo triples and a double axel, she could end up landing 9 triples in a program.
That's just how I interpreted it, though. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Nine triples would not be legal because you're only allowed to repeat two triples, and only to repeat them once each, so you can only do two more triples total than the number of kinds of triples you can do. Most elite ladies can do five different kinds, so seven triples total. Add the triple axel, and that makes eight.

However, if a skater did a 3/3 combination and a 3/3/3 combination, she could do two more solo triples and a double axel (or three more triples if she has a triple axel, but it would have to be rotated to within 90 degrees to count as a triple), and then whatever double jumps she likes, including double axels, to fill out the other two jumping passes. And one of those additional passes can be another two-jump combination.

(In theory, if someone did a triple walley or a triple inside axel or something like that they could do more triples, but no one even does doubles from those takeoffs and they're not listed in the element tables of the code of points, so someone would have to do them as "transitions" first to get them recognized . . . it's not going to happen any time soon and maybe never because those takeoffs just don't provide enough power for three revolutions. Also, in theory for the almost all the ladies but sometimes in practice for the men, a quad doesn't count as repeating the triple if it is in fact rotated enough to count as a quad, so seven triples, or eight including the axel, *plus* a quad would be legal in a lady's program if enough of them were done in combinations to fit in seven jumping passes.)

 

[wvgal57]

Jumping passes are counted ... not individual jumps. A 3/3/3 is perfectly legal under COP and Irina can still do a 3loop as individual jump.

 

[SkateFan4Life]

Well, if Irina has a 55% chance of winning, that makes her the odds-on favorite, leaving only 15% each for Michelle, Sasha and Shizuka.

I think the home crowd advantage will be very important, both in terms of getting Irina juiced up to skate her best and also in terms of judges hoping that she skates well enough to deserve the high marks.

Her health and stamina will be the whole story, I think. Mathman

IMHO, Irina is a longshot to even medal at 2005 Worlds, much less win the championship. She has to be in top physical shape and stamina, and that is doubtful, at this point. Sure, there is a home court advantage, but that can only take you so far. You have to deliver the technical and artistic elements.

The judges would leave themselves open to an unbelievable amount of criticism if they "gave" the gold medal to Irina and she was clearly outskated by Kwan, Cohen, Arakawa, Onda, and others. Give us a break! :sheesh:

 

[Excidra2001]

IMHO, Irina is a longshot to even medal at 2005 Worlds, much less win the championship.

from what she's displayed at her two GP events, she is definitely one of the 4 contenders to win the title, so I guess a medal is not a long-shot if she is gunning for the title..

The judges would leave themselves open to an unbelievable amount of criticism if they "gave" the gold medal to Irina and she was clearly outskated by Kwan, Cohen, Arakawa, Onda, and others. Give us a break! :sheesh:

So you are assuming all those skaters will outskate Slute . Maybe she'll outskate them, maybe they'll outskate her, I just hope all the ladies come out fighting and the best wins the title.