I decided to start off my prediction-making-process by not looking at anything and seeing where my heart and head would take me. And in each category, it got me as far as a Top 10.
There are just too many new (or new-ish) names to know where to slot them in!
I hadn’t a clue what to do after my Top 10, because I suspected that many of the ones I would have gone with last year would be surpassed by the juniors that were coming up this season.
So, I reverted back to my trusty old Personal Best and World Standings system. And I got a surprise. When you ordered the singles fields by PB, the Top 10 in both categories was pretty much the same as what I had put!
In Ladies, there was only one junior infiltrating, Nicole Rajicova of Slovakia. I was really impressed with Nicole at last year’s Euros. So, since she was only ahead of one of my Top 10 choices (Natalia Popova), and as her PB is nearer to the Helgesson sisters ahead of her than it is to Popova behind her, I let her take the 10th place.
Other than that, it was just minor differences in order. Firstly, I had Liza ahead of Elena (of course I was going to do that!). Then I had Mae-Berenice ahead of Kiira (the only reason I put Mae-Berenice in front is because Kiira is only coming back from a long lay-off. Otherwise, I would definitely have gone with Kiira). Finally, I put Elene behind the Helgesson sisters rather than in front (when they are at their best, I like all three. But Elene seems to be the one that is furthest from her best form this season).
In Men, there weren’t any juniors infiltrating. But, like the Ladies, it became a Top 11, but this time because I had missed Alexander Majorov on my first scan down the list. Oops!
I have to be honest. After these 11, there were only a handful of names that I actually recognised! And the first of these was a few places behind the 15th guy on the PB list. So, since they’re not being scored anyway, I just decided to keep 12th downwards the same as the PB list.
My Top 11 is largely similar to the PB list. The major difference is that although Amodio has the 3rd best PB, I have put him much lower. Although he is still a great showman, he has been no-where near his best competitive form in recent seasons! In fact, I was dithering whether to put him behind his older (but less experienced) compatriot, Chafik Besseghier. But I decided to keep a little bit of faith in Florent. Speaking of Besseghier, the other main change I made was to put him ahead of Majorov. Their PB’s are practically identical, and I feel that Chafik is on an upward curve, whereas I am not as convinced by Alexander.
I so wanted to carry out my threat of having an all-Russian podium in every category. But, when I came to the Men, I found the name “Michal Brezina” and thought “Nah, he should do better than Pitkeev”. So I put him in ahead of Pitkeev. And, unfortunately for Adian, this thought process kept being repeated over and over again! Then I came to the name “Javier Fernandez” and thought “Come on, you can’t put Javi off the podium!” So, I put him in 1st!
I love Javi, and always want him to as best as he can. And my head is telling me that, at his best, he should win. But, deep down in my heart, I want Voronov to win this. Head or heart? Head won.
In Pairs, I was dithering whether to have the French infiltrate the Russians or not. In the end, I decided to put Vanessa and Morgan behind the Russians in 4th. I will probably regret this, but hey!
The Top 9 couples on my list were also the Top 9 on the PB list (albeit in a slightly different order). I chose Fancy / Boyadji for 10th, but was surprised to find they were only 13th on the PB list. I was so impressed with these pair when I saw them last season. They are so promising and full of potential, and I do fancy them for a Top 10 this year.
The slightly different order arises from a few things. Stolbova / Klimov are coming back from injury, and although I do think they could manage a podium, I don’t think they’ll win. Tarasova / Morozov have really impressed me this year, and if they skate their best, I do feel they could leap-frog the French. And I do think both Italian couples are much better than their PB’s suggest. Although, I did debate for a long time which way round to put them. I know Nicole and Matteo had a disaster in their FS at Nationals, but I do think that their experience will give them the edge over the Italian Champions, the lovely Miss Marchei (first season in Pairs, remember) and Ondrej.
In Dance, I did let the French infiltrate. In fact, I debated for a long time over whether to put Gabriella and Guillaume or Elena and Ruslan on top. And, in the end, I decided to go with the French.
However much I may have wanted to put all the Russians as high as possible, there was the small matter of the two Italian couples and Coomes / Buckland. So, the other 2 Russian couples got pushed down to 6th and 7th. Instead of splitting them, I put Nelli and Alex behind the Russians, because although they have been doing well so far this season, I am still not sure if the judges “get” their style of routine.
I was surprised to find that the couple I had initially put in 9th position, Testa / Csolley, were as far down as 12th in the PB list. Not only that, but their PB was a good bit behind the 3 couples ahead of them, one of which was the couple I had initially put in 10th, Hurtado / Diaz. So, I promoted the Spaniards up to 9th. I know absolutely nothing about the other 2 couples, so I kept Testa/ Csolley ahead of them.
Although there were more names further down the order in Dance that I recognised than in Men or Pairs, apart from the third Italian couple and those few that were at 4 Nationals, I hadn’t seen any of them this season. So, since I didn’t know what form they are on, I didn’t make any further deviations.
Wow! I wasn’t expecting to write 2 full A4 pages of commentary!
Sorry for going overboard...
CaroLiza_fan
EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIPS
Ladies
1. Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA, RUS
2. Elena RADIONOVA, RUS
3. Anna POGORILAYA, RUS
4. Mae Berenice MEITE, FRA
5. Kiira KORPI, FIN
6. Nathalie WEINZIERL, GER
Just for fun
7. Joshi HELGESSON, SWE
8. Viktoria HELGESSON, SWE
9. Elene GEDEVANISHVILI, GEO
10. Nicole RAJICOVA, SVK
11. Natalia POPOVA, UKR
12. Sonia LAFUENTE, ESP
13. Ivett TOTH, HUN
14. Roberta RODEGHIERO, ITA
15. Dasa GRM, SLO
Men
1. Javier FERNANDEZ, ESP
2. Sergei VORONOV, RUS
3. Maxim KOVTUN, RUS
4. Michal BREZINA, CZE
5. Peter LIEBERS, GER
6. Florent AMODIO, FRA
Just for fun
7. Chafik BESSEGHIER, FRA
8. Alexander MAJOROV, SWE
9. Adian PITKEEV, RUS
10. Ivan RIGHINI, ITA
11. Alexei BYCHENKO, ISR
12. Yaroslav PANIOT, UKR
13. Phillip HARRIS, GBR
14. Daniel SAMOHIN, ISR
15. Petr COUFAL, CZE
Pairs
1. Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV, RUS
2. Ksenia STOLBOVA / Fedor KLIMOV, RUS
3. Evgenia TARASOVA / Vladimir MOROZOV, RUS
4. Vanessa JAMES / Morgan CIPRES, FRA
5. Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE, ITA
6. Valentina MARCHEI / Ondrej HOTAREK, ITA
Just for fun
7. Mari VARTMANN / Aaron VAN CLEAVE, GER
8. Miriam ZIEGLER / Severin KIEFER, AUT
9. Caitlin YANKOWSKAS / Hamish GAMAN, GBR
10. Amani FANCY / Christopher BOYADJI, GBR
11. Alessandra CERNUSCHI / Filippo AMBROSINI, ITA
12. Maria PALIAKOVA / Nikita BOCHKOV, BLR
13. Elizaveta MAKAROVA / Leri KENCHADZE, BUL
14. Minerva Fabienne HASE / Nolan SEEGERT, GER
Dance
1. Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON, FRA
2. Elena ILINYKH / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN, RUS
3. Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE, ITA
4. Penny COOMES / Nicholas BUCKLAND, GBR
5. Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI, ITA
6. Ksenia MONKO / Kirill KHALIAVIN, RUS
Just for fun
7. Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN, RUS
8. Nelli ZHIGANSHINA / Alexander GAZSI, GER
9. Sara HURTADO / Adria DIAZ, ESP
10. Federica TESTA / Lukas CSOLLEY, SVK
11. Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN, UKR
12. Laurence FOURNIER BEAUDRY / Nikolaj SORENSEN, DEN
13. Carolina MOSCHENI / Adam LUKACS, HUN
14. Viktoria KAVALIOVA / Yurii BIELIAIEV, BLR
15. Irina SHTORK / Taavi RAND, EST
Brezina received better PCS than Voronov.
