Gracie Gold: Can she medal at JW (and beyond)?

[DianaSelene]

here are some advantages gracie has over the russians, IMO:
1. her jumps are HUGE, not just height but distance. go look at her 3+3+3 on youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjWrN5LHG9A
2. shes very fast
3. she's already had a growth spurt
4. adelina's been having a rough season
5. liza might withdraw and has very bad ice coverage
6. gracie has two different 3+3's in her programs, plus 2A+3T

if liza withdraws and adelina has a couple rough skates, i think it will be between her and julia. i think julia's choreography is worse than gracie's, she doesn't have the same skating skills or speed, and not nearly the height that gracie gets on her jumps. they're both due for rough skates, but we'll see. i hope neither of them do, i would like to see a good competition

Why are you saying tukt might withdraw? She is on the team already which means she said she will go. Unless an injury, she won't withdraw.

 

[dorispulaski]

Apparently, in one interview a couple of weeks back, Mishin said Liza might withdraw, citing tiredness, and too many competitions. Putting her on the team gives Liza & Mishin a longer time to make their decision as to whether she should go to Jr Worlds or not. If she withdraws, the first alternate would presumably go. I'm not sure who that would be.

 

[chuckm]

Probably Shelepen, who was 2nd at Russian Jr Nationals.

 

[tulosai]

here are some advantages gracie has over the russians, IMO:

if liza withdraws and adelina has a couple rough skates, i think it will be between her and julia. i think julia's choreography is worse than gracie's, she doesn't have the same skating skills or speed, and not nearly the height that gracie gets on her jumps. they're both due for rough skates, but we'll see. i hope neither of them do, i would like to see a good competition

I completely disagree that Julia has worse choreography than Gracie. At least Julia is doing something with her arms, and I think her skating skills are also at least as strong as Gracie's (I would say they are stronger). I have not seen either of them live yet so I can't comment on speed; I will grant that from what I can tell Gracie does have the bigger jumps. Both are very consistent. I think the advantage is to Julia at this point. To me, she is a far more artistic skater; I believe that International judges currently agree with me and that will pull her ahead. Obviously this is no indication of what might happen later in their careers and I am not meaning to start a debate on that or look further into the future than this one competition; however, I find it hard to believe that clean Gracie beats clean Julia (or clean Adelina/Tuk for that matter- the difference is Tuk and Sot are less likely it seems to be clean).

I too hope to see a good competition

 

[DianaSelene]

I completely disagree that Julia has worse choreography than Gracie. At least Julia is doing something with her arms, and I think her skating skills are also at least as strong as Gracie's (I would say they are stronger). I have not seen either of them live yet so I can't comment on speed; I will grant that from what I can tell Gracie does have the bigger jumps. Both are very consistent. I think the advantage is to Julia at this point. To me, she is a far more artistic skater; I believe that International judges currently agree with me and that will pull her ahead. Obviously this is no indication of what might happen later in their careers and I am not meaning to start a debate on that or look further into the future than this one competition; however, I find it hard to believe that clean Gracie beats clean Julia (or clean Adelina/Tuk for that matter- the difference is Tuk and Sot are less likely it seems to be clean).

I too hope to see a good competition

Yeah, Lipnitskaya has great skating skills and artistry, better than Gold's. What she may lose in jumps, she will make up in spins and pcs.

 

[Mrs. P]

I think Julia's choreography is OK, but I wouldn't say it's amazing. As I said in past posts I find the random "let me show my flexibility" moves sort of annoying, especially when it's places that really don't make sense. I would say that she probably has more musicality than Gracie does, but I think she could do better on the choreography.

 

[RUS84]

Can beat Gracie Gold? NO!
And even to win a medal it will be extremely difficult! .... Why not against the Gracie Gold does not have ... but you have to face it!
Tuktamysheva won two adult Grand Prix!
Sotnikova acting World Champion 2011!
Lipnitsky INCREDIBLY plasticity))) ... its rotation in the three

 

[DianaSelene]

Lipnitskaya's choreography is not great but her presentation makes up for it and I forget about the choreography.

 

[FlattFan]

I think Julia's choreography is OK, but I wouldn't say it's amazing. As I said in past posts I find the random "let me show my flexibility" moves sort of annoying, especially when it's places that really don't make sense. I would say that she probably has more musicality than Gracie does, but I think she could do better on the choreography.

Hehe, I said something about Julia's that got me an infraction, so I won't repeat that here. I certainly prefer Gracie's non-programs over that.

 

[Serious Business]

I was hasty earlier in declaring Gracie Gold as having the best technical content of ladies skater in the world right now. On second thoughts, that honor goes to Julia Lipniskaya. No, she doesn't have all the 3/3s Gracie has, and she gets edge calls. But her far superior spins and consistency make up for it. The technical edge definitely goes to Julia. In fact, in the FS, where they have roughly the same jump content, Julia gets ahead by attaching 3toes to both her 2axels, thereby maximizing GOE, while Gracie lowers hers by doing a 3lutz/3toe and 2axel/3toe instead. Gracie seems to have more power and speed, but she is far less refined a skater than Julia. Julia is the one to beat at JW. Going forward, though, Gracie is the one who has had her growth spurt, is older and adjusted to it, and has sound jumping technique all around. I feel good about Gracie's future

 

[tulosai]

As regards Julia, I also want to point out that she has had A growth spurt and survived it so far. People don't talk about it because (I assume) 1. It didn't actually give her any trouble and 2. It is fairly obvious she's not done growing and so no one (including me) is ready to say 'yay!' just yet.

However, she's grown a few inches and her body has changed since this time last year actually fairly dramatically. Her LP at Russian Nats a year ago is here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HkfVLLAJcY

A quick glance will tell anyone she doesn't have the same body. I don't think this means her future will be clear sailing (it likely won't), but it's something that I haven't really heard acknowledged yet, and I wanted to do so, since a growth spurt that doesn't give a skater any trouble is still a growth spurt and everyone talks like Julia has not had one in any way, when IMO this is untrue.

 

[macy]

Why are you saying tukt might withdraw? She is on the team already which means she said she will go. Unless an injury, she won't withdraw.

a couple people have said she is debating withdrawing due to exhaustion.

 

[macy]

I completely disagree that Julia has worse choreography than Gracie. At least Julia is doing something with her arms, and I think her skating skills are also at least as strong as Gracie's (I would say they are stronger). I have not seen either of them live yet so I can't comment on speed; I will grant that from what I can tell Gracie does have the bigger jumps. Both are very consistent. I think the advantage is to Julia at this point. To me, she is a far more artistic skater; I believe that International judges currently agree with me and that will pull her ahead. Obviously this is no indication of what might happen later in their careers and I am not meaning to start a debate on that or look further into the future than this one competition; however, I find it hard to believe that clean Gracie beats clean Julia (or clean Adelina/Tuk for that matter- the difference is Tuk and Sot are less likely it seems to be clean).

I too hope to see a good competition

i think their skating skills are similar. julia's choreography has never impressed me, a lot of it is showing a flexibility move everywhere. spiral here, catchfoot there, etc. i have seen gracie live at skate detroit last summer and also 2011 sectionals and she is very fast and her jumps really are huge. julia does have the edge with being more internationally experienced, but who knows. a lot of things can happen.

 

[sky_fly20]

As regards Julia, I also want to point out that she has had A growth spurt and survived it so far. People don't talk about it because (I assume) 1. It didn't actually give her any trouble and 2. It is fairly obvious she's not done growing and so no one (including me) is ready to say 'yay!' just yet.

However, she's grown a few inches and her body has changed since this time last year actually fairly dramatically. Her LP at Russian Nats a year ago is here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HkfVLLAJcY

A quick glance will tell anyone she doesn't have the same body. I don't think this means her future will be clear sailing (it likely won't), but it's something that I haven't really heard acknowledged yet, and I wanted to do so, since a growth spurt that doesn't give a skater any trouble is still a growth spurt and everyone talks like Julia has not had one in any way, when IMO this is untrue.

correct. Julia is having her 1st growth spurt!
Liza too is filling out but not much, don't know if that counts as a growth spurt

 

[bekalc]

i think their skating skills are similar. julia's choreography has never impressed me, a lot of it is showing a flexibility move everywhere. spiral here, catchfoot there, etc. i have seen gracie live at skate detroit last summer and also 2011 sectionals and she is very fast and her jumps really are huge. julia does have the edge with being more internationally experienced, but who knows. a lot of things can happen.

People who have seen Julia live say that she has very good speed.

I was hasty earlier in declaring Gracie Gold as having the best technical content of ladies skater in the world right now. On second thoughts, that honor goes to Julia Lipniskaya. No, she doesn't have all the 3/3s Gracie has, and she gets edge calls. But her far superior spins and consistency make up for it. The technical edge definitely goes to Julia. In fact, in the FS, where they have roughly the same jump content, Julia gets ahead by attaching 3toes to both her 2axels, thereby maximizing GOE, while Gracie lowers hers by doing a 3lutz/3toe and 2axel/3toe instead. Gracie seems to have more power and speed, but she is far less refined a skater than Julia. Julia is the one to beat at JW. Going forward, though, Gracie is the one who has had her growth spurt, is older and adjusted to it, and has sound jumping technique all around. I feel good about Gracie's future

I don't think its so clear that Gracie has the best technical content in the world. Elizaveta has exactly the same jump content. And has more transitions coming out of her jumps. Then there's Adelina who does the 3lutz/3loop which is a harder combo than what Gracie does although Adelina flutzs. Adelina's jumps one could argue are bigger and her spins are better too. In terms of Gracie's jumps, I want to see more international competitions before its declared no edge issues.
Then there's someone like Polina K who does a 3flip/3toe not a 3lutz but has much better spins than Gracie. Her jumps are also quite big; and she clearly doesn't flutz or lip; it seems. Polina has HUGE jumps too.

In terms of Julia; I actually wonder about her jumps because they don't seem very high but it might just because she's small. But Julia for the most part has good technique and she's actually more consistent than Gracie. Gracie tends to make one jumping mistake; Julia doesn't. According to Julia's coach; Julia CAN do the harder 3/3s in practice; they don't see the point right now.
She doesn't have huge jumps but her jumping technique IS good (except for that flutz) I think she has an edge on Gracie in consistency. Gracie seems to make maybe one jumping mistake in her longs. Julia tends to go clean. According to Julia's coach; Julia can do the harder 3/3s in practice; they just aren't putting them in the programs YET. As for growth spurt I'm not sure growing taller is the issue as much as growing OUT. I don't think we know for sure that Gracie is done growing.

 

[mskater93]

Gracie is 16 already and sprouted up about 6 inches between 14 and 15. In the last year she hasn't grown more than 1/2 an inch. Her mom is quite small (Gracie is actually already as tall as she is at 5'2") and her dad's not very tall either.

 

[Mrs. P]

People who have seen Julia live say that she has very good speed.


I don't think its so clear that Gracie has the best technical content in the world. Elizaveta has exactly the same jump content. And has more transitions coming out of her jumps. Then there's Adelina who does the 3lutz/3loop which is a harder combo than what Gracie does although Adelina flutzs. Adelina's jumps one could argue are bigger and her spins are better too. In terms of Gracie's jumps, I want to see more international competitions before its declared no edge issues.
Then there's someone like Polina K who does a 3flip/3toe not a 3lutz but has much better spins than Gracie. Her jumps are also quite big; and she clearly doesn't flutz or lip; it seems. Polina has HUGE jumps too.

In terms of Julia; I actually wonder about her jumps because they don't seem very high but it might just because she's small. But Julia for the most part has good technique and she's actually more consistent than Gracie. Gracie tends to make one jumping mistake; Julia doesn't. According to Julia's coach; Julia CAN do the harder 3/3s in practice; they don't see the point right now.
She doesn't have huge jumps but her jumping technique IS good (except for that flutz) I think she has an edge on Gracie in consistency. Gracie seems to make maybe one jumping mistake in her longs. Julia tends to go clean. According to Julia's coach; Julia can do the harder 3/3s in practice; they just aren't putting them in the programs YET. As for growth spurt I'm not sure growing taller is the issue as much as growing OUT. I don't think we know for sure that Gracie is done growing.

Polina K has impressed me greatly given her quick progress over the last year. That said, who says that Gracie couldn't do the same with her non-jump elements/artistry? We already know she is capable of being a quick study. I think junior worlds is going to be a fantastic opportunity for her to go toe-to-toe with the best in the world right now. Given her competitive spirit, I wouldn't be surprise if she went right home after the competition and worked aggressively on the areas that she sees is lacking when in comparison to her competitions. I feel like this high-pressure competitive environment is what got Polina K working to bring the goods this year. I wouldn't be surprised if a similar situation would do the same for Gracie.

That said, I still don't think it's unreasonable to say that Gracie has one of the best technical content in the world, even if it's not THE best. She definitely has the best technical content of all the U.S. ladies and a good chunk of the the senior ladies today. It think it speaks highly of her when she can only be compared to the wunderkinds.

 

[Serious Business]

Or that Gracie Gold picks up the 3axel and/or add a 3loop ender to her jump combos instead of the 3toe (we know she can do a 3lutz/3toe/3loop in practice). Gracie has lots of ways to advance.

Personally, I am a bit loathe to continually cast this as The American Gracie Gold vs. the Russian Baby Horde. I know that's how skating really works, alas, but I don't have to like it or participate. She's one of many amazing younger skaters, including Julia and Polina and Liza and Adelina and others I'm sure I'm missing. They'll all be competing against each other quite a bit if luck and health holds out. It's going to be pretty exciting for ladies skating.

But if I have to add to this ridiculous nationalistic baby fight scenario, I am also pretty excited about new US novice ladies champion Karen Chen, who won with the highest score ever in that division. Despite being 12, she already has a true 3lutz, 3loop, 3sal and a 2axel/3toe, though, alas, she lips. She is also extremely flexible in her spins and spirals. She is way too young to make her mark in the senior scene any time soon, and who knows what growth spurts will do to her. But the wunderkinds are springing up everywhere, not just Russia. And if you can, check out her US figure skating gala performance, where she performed an intricate Chinese folk dance number using two giant feathered fans. And unlike most other skaters skating with big handheld props, Karen held onto her fans while completing a perfect 3lutz, a perfect 2axel and a lipped 3flip. She also kept control of her fans while doing all kinds of spins and spirals, too. Karen Chen, watch out for that one!

 

[dorispulaski]

I loved Karen Chen's gala performance, not just cute, but truly impressive!

 

[Jammers]

As regards Julia, I also want to point out that she has had A growth spurt and survived it so far. People don't talk about it because (I assume) 1. It didn't actually give her any trouble and 2. It is fairly obvious she's not done growing and so no one (including me) is ready to say 'yay!' just yet.

However, she's grown a few inches and her body has changed since this time last year actually fairly dramatically. Her LP at Russian Nats a year ago is here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HkfVLLAJcY

A quick glance will tell anyone she doesn't have the same body. I don't think this means her future will be clear sailing (it likely won't), but it's something that I haven't really heard acknowledged yet, and I wanted to do so, since a growth spurt that doesn't give a skater any trouble is still a growth spurt and everyone talks like Julia has not had one in any way, when IMO this is untrue.

Julia Lipniskaya may have already had a growth spurt but she's still tiny so it hasn't affected her yet. The age when these girls start to struggle is around 14-16 when they have their major growing not just in height but their bodies change to. After all Mira grew about 4 inches between the ages of 13-14 but was still around 4'11 so she wasn't affected as you could tell since she dominated the JGP as a 14 year old. Sound familiar?