Grand Prix Analysis (Men), Winners/Losers

[Daniel1998]

I'm baaaack!!! This time with men's GP analysis. DISCLAIMER: I am not as well-versed with men as I am with ladies, so take my analysis with a grain of salt, and please comment if you disagree with anything, because you're more than likely right. LOL
Enjoy.

Skate America
Favourites: Boyang Jin, Shoma Uno
Contenders: Daisuke Murakami, Denis Ten, Maxim Kovtun, Sergei Voronov, Jason Brown, Adam Rippon
Dark Horses: Nam Nguyen

Skate Canada
Favourites: Patrick Chan, Yuzuru Hanyu
Contenders: Takahito Mura
Dark Horses: Kevin Reynolds, Han Yan, Daniel Samohin, Alexander Petrov, Grant Hochstein

Rostelecom Cup
Favourites: Shoma Uno, Javier Fernandez
Contenders: Mikhail Kolyada, Max Aaron
Dark Horses: Keiji Tanaka, Artur Dmitriev

Trophee de France
Favourite: Javier Fernandez
Contenders: Takahito Mura, Denis Ten, Adam Rippon
Dark Horses: Artur Dmitriev, Nathan Chen

Cup of China
Favourites: Patrick Chan, Boyang Jin
Contenders: Daisuke Murakami, Maxim Kovtun, Sergei Voronov, Max Aaron
Dark Horses: Han Yan, Daniel Samohin, Alexander Petrov

NHK Trophy
Favourites: Yuzuru Hanyu
Contenders: Mikhail Kolyada, Jason Brown
Dark Horses: Nam Nguyen, Keiji Tanaka, Nathan Chen, Grant Hochstein

Anyone who read my ladies analysis from about a week ago will know I use terms called top-heavy fields and depth fields to describe the Grand Prix events. However, I find the men's GP events slightly more chaotic and too different to define using only two classifications. It's important to recognize that while 24 points was enough last year for ladies to qualify for the GPF, 22 was enough for the men. I'd say that the men's results are more... volatile. This means as a man you have a reasonable shot at the GPF with any two podium finishes, whereas it's more difficult for the ladies. I'll get straight to my winners and losers.

Winners:
Yuzuru Hanyu: I think the entire skating world is excited to see what barriers Hanyu can break through this year. His pre-GP event (Autumn Classic) suggests that he's a little more vulnerable than we might have hoped for and not at peak form yet. Although the GPF obviously shouldn't be an issue for him, he's drawn favourably regardless. Skate Canada is a weak field, and the only person he can realistically lose to is Chan. NHK is an even weaker field where he's the obvious favourite and he'll be at home. A totally dysfunctional Hanyu will still be plenty good enough to reach the GPF.

Javier Fernandez: He's drawn into slightly more difficult fields than Hanyu, but he avoids Skate America and Cup of China, the two events you do NOT want. Rostelecom will be a fun duel between him and Shoma, although he does have to be wary of Kolyada and Aaron, two very capable competitors. France is a runaway for Javi as long as he's remotely close to being clean. Fernandez is well on his way to the GPF.

Takahito Mura: He could have made the GPF last year if not for an absolute disaster at Skate America. His consistency is dubious but he's drawn favourably this year. It's unlikely he'll beat Chan or Hanyu in Canada, but I see him as the favourite for bronze if he skates well enough. The dark horses I've listed for SC are either not internationally proven or technically lacking. France is a weak field as well where he's in the hunt for silver or bronze, with only one top name in the field. If Mura shows up he's got a good chance at this.

Mikhail Kolyada: One of the breakout stars from last season is licking his chops after seeing his draw. I don't think many of us, if any at all, are expecting Mikhail to make the GPF but he may benefit from being placed in two of the weaker draws. Realistically, he won't beat Uno or Javi in Russia, but him being at home and with more consistency than Aaron, I think the bronze is his to lose. At NHK he's staring down a date with another American, Jason Brown, in the hunt for silver. Bronze-bronze, if not bronze-silver, is a very real possibility for Mikhail.

Losers:
THE DOUBLE BLOODBATH PARTICIPANTS (Boyang Jin, Daisuke Murakami, Maxim Kovtun, Sergei Voronov): Absolute. Death. Murder. Treason. Prepare yourselves. Among top names, Boyang easily got the worst draw, getting both Skate America and Cup of China, without question the two most stacked events. Skate America is just brutal- I see 8 or 9 people capable of being on the podium. Because Boyang doesn't yet have the component scores to fall back on, he'll be needing to nail all the quads to get to the GPF. Murakami was fortunate to get into the GPF last year, but his chances this year look grim. He's hard-pressed to make the podium in either event he's entered in. The two Russians, Kovtun and Voronov, are probably both sharing a bottle of vodka in commiseration while countryman Kolyada is off somewhere in happyland dancing and prancing in a green costume.

Patrick Chan: Patrick was very lucky last year to make the GPF with a fifth place finish at one of his assignments. It's not very likely he can fall back on that again, and his road won't be much easier this time. Hanyu has to be the favourite at Skate Canada, even though Chan beat him last year and Hanyu isn't in the greatest form. At Cup of China I can see Patrick winning, and I can also see him finishing as low as seventh. If his consistency has improved, the GPF should be no problem for Chan. If he falters at all, he may not get away with it again.

Adian Pitkeev: He was actually entered in two easier events this year- France and NHK- prior to withdrawing. He was trending upward last year before his injury, with a second place finish at Rostelecom. Everything went wrong after that, and he's still somewhat injured, which is a shame. If he had been able to continue building from 2015, he would have had excellent podium chances at his two GPs this year. I've got a soft spot in my heart for Adian, and I wish him a speedy recovery.

Bottom Line:
From the draw I can conclude two locks- Hanyu and Fernandez. Everything else is absolutely up in the air, and I expect the results to be calamitous, just as they were last year. Skate America and Cup of China are absolutely critical in determining who gets to go to the GPF, so follow those two carefully. I personally suspect a surprise or two come December- I wouldn't be shocked to see someone like Kolyada creep his way in. It should be great fun following along.

Hope you liked my analysis- thanks for all the feedback and support on my ladies post, I was blown away! If you'd like a pairs analysis as well please let me know.

 

[4everchan]

well, we will see

It does seem easier for Hanyu and Fernandez, at the same time, they earned easier draws by being the top 2 seeds. I think Shoma did pretty well and considering that he did well at Japan Open indicates he is ready for Skate America. I find that skaters in the first couple events are often at a disadvantage because they are so early in the season.

Despite being the third seed, Boyang is always at risk because any guy from the 4-6 seed could take him down. His PCS is still quite lower than the others and that puts a lot of pressure on his jumps. This being said, he has a good chance of making both podiums, and he doesn't need to place first to get to GPF as we know.

I feel that real losers of the draw are Americans : Jason wasn't seeded so he faces two seeds already and a bunch of other contenders in both his events.
Adam, well he could medal at one of his outing but I don't see that he will at S A. Max is facing extremely strong competition. If he places in 4-6 places in both his events he should be okay with it... tough draw for someone who won at S A last year.

Chan doesn't have an easy draw as his low placement at world made him only a second tier seed. Yes, I expect him to be behind Hanyu at S.C... will he really be much lower than 2nd? I don't know. You seem to mention he lacks consistency, well, we will see. Aside from worlds FP last year, he was pretty consistent. The 5th place in france was odd as he didn't get to skate the FP (and was it there that he zayaked his combo or was it in Canada? ) His second competition looks a lot like the first... but Boyang, even at home, seems like an easier taking than Yuzuru. So, he could even win COC... I see him on both podiums actually... It may be enough to qualify?


I think the fields are much deeper with the men and of course, with the quad race, it makes things much less predictable. Lots of falls, downgrades, URs and pops to come this season.... A pop (turned into a single) in the SP can leave a skater quite far back. A pop (turned into a triple) can put a skater at risk of zayaking.
It's getting tougher to improvise for these guys as their layouts are so maxed out.

Finally, there are a bunch of guys, including Chan and Kolyada about to skate in Finland.... if Chan's LP is great and he lands the 4S... who knows???? He could just like that go from contender to favourite for GPF. Let's not forget what happened when he acquired his 4T... went from contender for lower steps of the podium to the top ...

Of course, back then, his quad was the most secure of all men. RIght now, many men have secure and multiple quads.

We will see

 

[mcq]

Well, I think if both Yuzu and Javi did not disastrously bomb they both should make it to the podium at both their GPs, which should be enough for GPF. I think both of them comparably has easier GPs than others but I don't think Hanyu is easier than Javi. I meant, he is up against 3x world champion Chan of all people. Javi's hardest competition i think is Shoma so they are about even.
Same thing about Chan, I am pretty confident he will make it to GPF? His draw is not bad. I meant yes he is against Hanyu and Boyang, but at worst he should be 2nd in both GP and that should be enough for GPF (of course unless he bombs hard). Actually I don't know, I am sure he will be at the podium at both and even win either at SC or CoC (or maybe even win both!), so GPF should be a no-brainer for him. Can't use last year TEB as a benchmark, he didn't skate his FS there.

Now for the other top men:
Jin : Skate America is one of the question mark event for me. It is in the USA so I won't be surprised if he is lowballed and the US guys are propped up, so I won't be surprised seeing him off podium there. But CoC he should be safely second at least or at worst 3rd?

Shoma : Again, SA is the event in question, like Jin he could be held back too. He is only a few points away from Jason Brown at Lombardia trophy and he has 5 QUADS while brown just has 2 and even fell there too. So I am guessing I won't be surprised if he is held back there, but I will be a bit surprised if he didn't make it to the podium? CoR should be an easy 2nd for him at least (I won't be surprised if he won even), but I would be surprised if he doesn't make it to the podium there too, so Shoma should make it to GPF just from this. (Of course unless he bombs)

Other men: wild card, wild card. I am keeping my eye on a lot of people, Brown, Rippon, Chen, Samohin, Mura, Kolyada, Kovtun, Voronov etc. I wish I can say denis but he has a history of bad GPs so I am crossing him out for now.

NHK and TEB are interesting events because the clear contender for podium sans Hanyu/Fernandez could be anybody.

Overall, I don't wanna predict things too specifically because crazy things could happen lol. Anyone could unexpectedly bomb or unexpectedly skate clean, haven't we learned from past seasons

 

[Li'Kitsu]

I'm a bit surprised at people calling Chan "not a favorite" for the GPF. IMO, we have a pretty clear top 5 - Yuzu, Javi, Pat, Boyang, Shoma - out of which I'd expect all to make the final. Boyang does have the toughest draw, but I'd expect his PCS to be quite a bit higher than last season (WBM, after all).

The 6th one could be a number of guys... my guess would be Jason, Mika or Taka. But I wouldn't bet on it

Regarding Yuzu and Javi tough... yes, they will make the GPF "unless they horribly bomb", but that's not due to lucky draws... that's due to being the 2 best men in the world right now. They'd have great chances to make the GPF in any field

 

[Blades of Passion]

I would say the most likely to make GPF are:

1. Javier Fernandez
2. Yuzuru Hanyu
3. Shoma Uno
4. Patrick Chan
5. Boyang Jin
6. Nathan Chen

 

[Tavi...]

I would move Nathan Chen into contender status at both his events. He has a good chance to be this season's Boyang Jin, possibly with higher PCS. Based on how he does at Finlandia this weekend, he might even move into a favorite position at NHK.

I agree with 4everchan that US men are facing tough competition at their events this year. It's quite possible that neither Jason nor Adam will be on the podium at Skate America, or one of them will take a bronze at best.

SA (and as a result, the whole GP field) is exceptionally difficult to predict this year for a few reasons:

- D10 has changed his coaching situation (now split between Frank and Morozov) and he was scheduled for a Sr B (maybe for the first time?) but withdrew after arriving for the competition. The coaching change and unusual early start after a poor finish at worlds suggests that he may be trying to overcome his early season D5 reputation. On the other hand, the last minute withdrawal at Nepela suggests a possible injury. If D10 shows up ready to compete, he might move into favorite status.

- Kovtun made a coaching change this year and based on a FS clip I saw in the Russian Nationals thread, he appears to have really improved his presentation. His jumps also looked good. If he can sustain that performance level at SA, he may actually start to justify the generous PCS he has received in the past, and may move into favorite status here.

- Boyang Jin has to be considered a favorite for silver at least, but we have not yet seen him this season. He knows he needs to improve his second mark and has new programs. We didn't see him early last season, so it's hard to tell how prepared he'll be here, but based on his JGP results, he looks to be capable of skating well early in the season. On the other hand, he wasn't great at Worlds and really tanked at the Team Challenge Cup in April, scoring less than 160 for his FS. If they are trying to pace him better this season, it may just be possible (but unlikely) that someone could sneak ahead of him for silver.

- Shoma: at this point, I find it hard to imagine anyone but Shoma winning unless he has an off day. His FS and 4F were noticeably better at JO than at Lombardia.

- Jason: he hasn't landed a quad yet in competition, but he seems to be close. He is the hometown favorite and after being out with injury and not making the World Team he has something to prove. He seems to have solidified his 3As and in recent Sr Bs he's getting higher PCS than he did last year. Judges seem to love the FS, but jury is still out on the SP. if he lands quads in both programs he might sneak in for silver unless Boyang skates lights out. He could also fail to medal.

- Adam: competed the 4Z without success at SLC and JO, but hopes to include a 4T at Skate America. It's unclear whether he intends to replace the 4Z. He landed a 4T twice in 2012 but hasn't competed it since. He is getting higher components than he did last year and judges like this year's SP. FS is still a work in progress but it was noticeably better at JO than SLC. If he lands a quad he could medal - most likely bronze. He could also be off the podium entirely. As between Adam and Jason, Jason appears to have a slight advantage right now if both skate clean.

I don't see more than one US man on the podium here.

Daisuke Murakami and Sergei Voronov are both capable of skating well enough to medal here, but I have to think that unless both US men tank, it will be hard for either to make the podium.

Thoughts on other events to come.

 

[Jaana]

I think the most likely to make the GPF are:

1. Hanyu
2. Fernandez
3. Uno
4. Chan
5. Jin
6. Kolyada, Kovtun or Chen

 

[HanDomi]

I think the most likely to make the GPF are:

1. Hanyu
2. Fernandez
3. Uno
4. Chan
5. Jin
6. Kolyada, Kovtun or Chen

Chen will make it to GPF in my prediction

 

[puremagic]

Americans (except Nathan) and Russians have very small chances:

1. Yuzuru Hanyu
2. Javier Fernandez
3. Patrick Chan (in Chan we trust! )
4. Shoma Uno
5. Boyang Jin
6. Nathan Chen

 

[4everchan]

Americans (except Nathan) and Russians have very small chances:

1. Yuzuru Hanyu
2. Javier Fernandez
3. Patrick Chan (in Chan we trust! )
4. Shoma Uno
5. Boyang Jin
6. Nathan Chen

happy to see so many trust patrick to make it... i'm always too anxious :scard8:

 

[karne]

*scrolls through the thread*

Ah, same old, same old, I see. "Quick! Let's stick a crown on Chen and throw all the other US men on the trash heap!".

 

[Crossover]

Nathan Chen has a full package and is an all around skater with crazy TES stuffs, so yeah, I'm so looking forward to seeing him compete with big boys this season.

Among the U.S. juniors, Zhou, Torgashev, Krasnozhon are promising, so the future of U.S men is quite bright.

 

[Arriba627]

I think we're being pretty quick to assume Nathan Chen is in good shape. I wish him all the best and am hoping that is true. He is SO talented! I thought he looked a little scary at Golden West. Best of luck to him at this weekend's competition.

 

[el henry]

I think we're being pretty quick to assume Nathan Chen is in good shape. I wish him all the best and am hoping that is true. He is SO talented! I thought he looked a little scary at Golden West. Best of luck to him at this weekend's competition.

I agree about Nathan. I wish him continued good health, but all of this expectation with a skater who rarely makes it through the season.... But let's see what the season brings.

I just want to see Jason and Misha compete at their two GP events this year; that is something to look forward to, no matter where they place

 

[StitchMonkey]

Kinda have to agree on Nathan Chen. Can we at least wait till the end of this weekend to judge his chances? I mean he is about to skate... let's let him debut as a senior before we start writing out his season.

 

[Arriba627]

I agree about Nathan. I wish him continued good health, but all of this expectation with a skater who rarely makes it through the season.... But let's see what the season brings.

I just want to see Jason and Misha compete at their two GP events this year; that is something to look forward to, no matter where they place

Totally agree - it seems like the expectations are so high and we're already wanting to "anoint" him as the next best thing. I love his skating, but Golden West didn't give me too much to pin my hopes on...Really looking forward to Jason at Skate America!

 

[karne]

Though I wish they could be:
Yuzuru Hanyu
Patrick Chan
Nathan Chen
Boyang Jin
Max Aaron
Jason Brown

I thoroughly approve of this GPF lineup. Make it so, skate gods.

Totally agree - it seems like the expectations are so high and we're already wanting to "anoint" him as the next best thing. I love his skating, but Golden West didn't give me too much to pin my hopes on...Really looking forward to Jason at Skate America!

Were you here at the beginning of last season? It was even worse than this. The Chen-crowners were going ape because he did better than Jason at an early-season comp. It was Chen this, Chen that, Chen the new king, throw all the other US men on the garbage heap!

 

[Mrs. P]

They're fun predictions. It's also the men.

I think there will be at least one, if not two, surprises to the gpf lineup!

 

[Arriba627]

Were you here at the beginning of last season? It was even worse than this. The Chen-crowners were going ape because he did better than Jason at an early-season comp. It was Chen this, Chen that, Chen the new king, throw all the other US men on the garbage heap!

It's way too early to be throwing anybody under the bus, but Nathan has a lot to prove, and he is injury prone. I was just watching a video of him from 2010 that was incredible, but even at that time, he had injuries. Also I think any prediction for the GPF has to include Shoma. I can understand how everyone would be ecstatic that Nathan can do quads, but injuries are part of the game too. This weekend will be very telling.

 

[Tavi...]

Many people seem to think Nathan will make the GPF, but haven't explained their logic. If you look at his GP draws, I don't think he's a shoe-in, even though I'm sure he will be aiming to win both competitions.

The thing is, he probably needs at least silver in both comps to make the final; with even one bronze, he becomes a long shot. And looking at the field in France, where he faces Javi and D10, bronze is a distinct possibility. Yeah, D10 is supposed to be a late season skater but I don't think you can assume anything.

His chances at NHK look better, but he's still up against Hanyu, Jason and Kolyada. I know it's fashionable to dismiss Jason, but both he and Kolyada are unknown quantities at this point with respect to jumps, and both are likely to get higher PCS than Nathan. So although Nathan has a good shot for silver there, it's not a guarantee.

I think the picture will be clearer after we see Nathan at Finlandia, and get an idea of how he's going to be scored.

ETA Arriba and I are on the same wavelength!