Given that Brian Joubert has withdrawn, I think Evan's chance of going just went up from 95% to 99%.
I think it's 100%.

The only skaters who can beat him are Weir, Takahashi, Van der Perren, Chan!!, Lambiel, and Buttle.
But Lambiel and Buttle can't BOTH beat him, because they both need to win Cup of Russia to get a first and a third.
Worst case senario for Lysacek:
Weir gets 3rd at Cup of Russia. Weir beats Lysacek on the first tie breaker (1st and 3rd beats 2nd and 2nd).
Takahashi gets 3rd at NHK. Takahashi beats Lysacek on the first tie breaker.
Chan gets 1st tomorrow at Eric Bompard. Chan beats Lysacek on the first tie breaker.
Van der Perren gets second tomorrow, but with a huge score (Chan's score was even huger, LOL.) Van der Perren beats Lysacek on the second tie-breaker (total CoP points).
One of {Lambiel, Buttle} wins Cup of Russia. The winner beats Lysacek on the first tie breaker. The loser is out. Lysacek grabs the sixth and last spot in the finals.
