Is Grand Prix series ready to downsize to 5 events?

[gkelly]

Those breaks should not be due to unexpected trauma and injury, they should be a planned part of the skater's career,

Still, not every skater will benefit from a break at the exact same age.

So if it is agreed that everyone should take a one-year break at a point when doing so will prevent burnout (physical and/or mental), it should be up to the coaches and the skaters themselves to choose the best time to do so. I hope you're not suggesting that the age rules should be changed so that there would be an age where a skater is not eligible to compete in either junior or senior competitions.

 

[niks]

Though, in the interests of fairness, men's free from Krasnoyarsk was as surprisingly stable as the NHK one. Save for the lesser knee bends, the falls and meltdowns took a break this week.

Russian Men are by far some of the most interesting skating currently going on. This entire season so far has had few falls and basically no meltdowns. But besides that, competition is really strong, with new skaters appearing every year at very high level.

Russian Men were always very engaging and appealing artistically and performance wise, but since last year, and specially this season, they have extensively upped their tech / jumping content, no only at the top level, but also at the middle of the ranks. Multiple, stable quads are now quite the norm actually.

All stages have so far showed very exciting Men competitions with great skates, and the fight at Russian Nats is definitely something to look forward to. Impossible to predict who will win, there are at least half a dozen true candidates for the gold, and many more for the podium. I don't think there is this level of deep competition anywhere else currently.

 

[lariko]

Still, not every skater will benefit from a break at the exact same age.

So if it is agreed that everyone should take a one-year break at a point when doing so will prevent burnout (physical and/or mental), it should be up to the coaches and the skaters themselves to choose the best time to do so. I hope you're not suggesting that the age rules should be changed so that there would be an age where a skater is not eligible to compete in either junior or senior competitions.

Of course not. Why would i? All I say, is that a careers need to be planned in advance differently now than it was before. I think there is a way to plan a break around the natural time of maximum body changes that is inevitable and individual to allow for change in technique and with long term development in mind with seniors being in the right mental space to commit to competing well into twenties.

 

[lariko]

Russian Men are by far some of the most interesting skating currently going on. This entire season so far has had few falls and basically no meltdowns. But besides that, competition is really strong, with new skaters appearing every year at very high level.

Russian Men were always very engaging and appealing artistically and performance wise, but since last year, and specially this season, they have extensively upped their tech / jumping content, no only at the top level, but also at the middle of the ranks. Multiple, stable quads are now quite the norm actually.

All stages have so far showed very exciting Men competitions with great skates, and the fight at Russian Nats is definitely something to look forward to. Impossible to predict who will win, there are at least half a dozen true candidates for the gold, and many more for the podium. I don't think there is this level of deep competition anywhere else currently.

I don't necessarily agree with this assessment, but I found competition in Krasnoyarsk as encouraging as the NHK after previous events in both silos for men. Mostly, I am happy that as much as the RusFed is enamored with quads, they are selecting next generation for skating skill and artistic ability as well. I am concerned however that freshly 15 yo aiming for 5 quads in FS is a-Okay.

 

[niks]

Mostly, I am happy that as much as the RusFed is enamored with quads, they are selecting next generation for skating skill and artistic ability as well.

Oh I agree, it's most important that they preserve their individuality and artistic beauty, which has always been what I truly enjoy about their skating, and don't get drowned in a mad quad race. But I was truly surprised by the serious upgrade in the tech content across the field this season, it's in quite another level from what it used to be just a few seasons ago.

 

[Skating91]

Of course not. Why would i? All I say, is that a careers need to be planned in advance differently now than it was before. I think there is a way to plan a break around the natural time of maximum body changes that is inevitable and individual to allow for change in technique and with long term development in mind with seniors being in the right mental space to commit to competing well into twenties.

Does every skater want to skate until they are 30. Some achieve their goal at 17 and retire from competing because they want to do other things in life, or can make many times more money performing in shows without having to dedicate their entire life to the sport (this is one country in particular where the federation figured out how to promote the sport and make it self sustaining). There are some with a genuine love for the sport like Tuktamysheva or Kostner but you can't expect everyone to maintain that.

For being the world champion among ISU skaters the first prize is about $40k. Essentially it's an amateur sport because the ISU don't have the competence to monetise it. Skaters who are essentially amateur they are not getting the nutrition, the physio, the medical advice, etc that say a professional tennis player their age would be receiving, so there's never going to be the longevity we see in other sports.

And now with this increase in the age limit, a lot of skaters are going to be left out of pocket being denied the opportunity to make money in their peak earning years like Mao Shimada. She's going to be left hundreds of thousands out of pocket without prizemoney and promotional opportunities. I would look at increasing prizemoney in the junior competitions. Probably another reason to not bother with the sport long term if many skaters will perform at their career peak in the Ankara Cup in front of 60 people.

 

[lariko]

Yes, and that's exactly why I think the GP will have to downsize since the pool will shrink because people in that age group would--for the most part--need a high level of success internationally or nationally to continue with competitive skating career versus finding a day job, starting families etc. Those who are left will need the ability to take time off more often for obvious reasons. School and college sport has more participation for self-evident reason.

 

[4everchan]

Yes, and that's exactly why I think the GP will have to downsize since the pool will shrink because people in that age group would--for the most part--need a high level of success internationally or nationally to continue with competitive skating career versus finding a day job, starting families etc. Those who are left will need the ability to take time off more often for obvious reasons. School and college sport has more participation for self-evident reason.

If the pool shrinks, they could alternatively invite 60 skaters instead of 72. I don't think they will nix an entire event. They already are sort of doing this with having 60 dance teams and 48 pair teams.

 

[Mathman]

I don’t know. Some of the opinions on this thread seem to be suggesting that “ladies’” figure skating is biologically divided into two separate divisions: underage girls who can jump up a storm and mature women who can’t. Can either category sustain itself as a spectator sport? Do we tell prospective fans, OK, this is not very interesting right now, but just wait until all those jumping caterpillars take a year off and metamorphose into charming butterflies?

 

[Karoltyna]

I don’t know. Some of the opinions on this thread seem to be suggesting that “ladies’” figure skating is biologically divided into two separate divisions: underage girls who can jump up a storm and mature women who can’t. Can either category sustain itself as a spectator sport? Do we tell prospective fans, OK, this is not very interesting right now, but just wait until all those jumping caterpillars take a year off and metamorphose into charming butterflies?

There are fans who find mature skating not very interesting. I'm not sure why to take a year off. Some, whos bodies aren't strained because their coaches have a little bit of brain wouldn't need the break. Those who ween't lucky with the coach won't probably survive either way. And who wpuld fund the skater during break? Would they be allowed only to skate for recreation? No icetime and off ice training allowed? Because if they were to train like usual what's the point of this break? It's not the less than 10 minutes of skating during competition that strains the body but hundreds and thousands of repeated elements during training.

 

[Skating91]

There are fans who find mature skating not very interesting.

It is possible to have mature skating with high technical content, and some skaters have more maturity at 15 than those that are 23 or 24.

 

[Mathman]

There are fans who find mature skating not very interesting.

There are indeed. In my opinion this does not bode well for the sport going forward.

 

[lariko]

I don’t know. Some of the opinions on this thread seem to be suggesting that “ladies’” figure skating is biologically divided into two separate divisions: underage girls who can jump up a storm and mature women who can’t. Can either category sustain itself as a spectator sport? Do we tell prospective fans, OK, this is not very interesting right now, but just wait until all those jumping caterpillars take a year off and metamorphose into charming butterflies?

You misinterpret my post. This is how it works for men already. They sit out the period of explosive growth, having to re-tool their technique. Women change during maturity as much as men do, except they do not gain technically in late teens-early twenties for the most part however, some can retrain 3A and maybe a quad (remains to be seen). Just like we only have one man capable of jumping 4A and one man over 6 feet tall capable of landing 4Lz, so there is 1-2 women able to land 3A beyond age 20. For all we know, Trusova will be able to restore 4Lz at 20, which would be a major debunk of the whole narrative that quads are only good for pre-puberty or for women with a naturally ultra-small builds.

Audience will do what it will do. You can't pay me enough to watch Satoko Miahara and most of the Japanese women skate, while the next guy would rather watch her for the next 20 years and lobby for forbidding anything above 3Lz in difficulty for women so they can polish up their glide to perfection and reflect the essence of music in a hard-to-spot, connoisseur-only way.

In 2018-2022 ISU competitions provided content for both types in senior women competitions. Now, it's just for that other guy

 

[Mathman]

Audience will do what it will do.

I think that's the bpttom line. Maybe all we can do is throw everything at the wall and see what sticks.

 

[Andrina]

In 2018-2022 ISU competitions provided content for both types in senior women competitions. Now, it's just for that other guy

In 2021 Valieva was winning everything with her bolero because she had "quads".

In 2023 Aymoz' bolero didn't win against Malinin, although Kevin had a program.

ISU may provide various content but its vector is clear: it's the tech score that decides who is gonna win (and political relationships). And this is what defines what the audience is looking for. Most people don't care about who is skating. What concerns them is who is gonna win.

 

[Arigato]

ISU may provide various content but its vector is clear: it's the tech score that decides who is gonna win

Since when? Plenty of men can have a higher TES than the winner and come in second or lower since their PCS stinks.

 

[lariko]

In 2021 Valieva was winning everything with her bolero because she had "quads".

In 2023 Aymoz' bolero didn't win against Malinin, although Kevin had a program.

ISU may provide various content but its vector is clear: it's the tech score that decides who is gonna win (and political relationships). And this is what defines what the audience is looking for. Most people don't care about who is skating. What concerns them is who is gonna win.

Aymoz just won a free (free!) over Malinin with 2 quad toe loops to Malinin's 4 quads of higher BV in Skate America. Women with 3T-3T beat women with 3Lz-3T. So, nope, the tech score doesn't decide who wins. It didn't in the past either, since lower tech skaters won quite often over the higher programs. When tech is equal, a guy with better PCS wins (see Adam vs Ilia in last year's French GP).

 

[Mathman]

Still, math is math. Ten points for a quad this, 11 points for a quad that, 12 points for a quad whatsit. It adds up.

Skaters who don't deliver on the tech have to scramble. And then when threy do, they -- and the sport as a whole -- face criticism about "subjective" (if not downright dishonest) judging.

 

[rabidline]

In 2018-2022 ISU competitions provided content for both types in senior women competitions. Now, it's just for that other guy

Does it occur that the high technical content provided in 2018-2022 by the senior women was likely achieved through unsustainable means? We don't even have to touch the doping allegations, but simply the way they were trained, their nutrition intake and eating habits, the endless repetition and drilling (and not only Russian women do this, but also skaters like Rika Kihira and Satoko Miyahara under Mie Hamada... whose jumps and bodies did break down at some point).

The reason that now we're not getting that content from the senior women is that all the senior women from that period have either retired or lost their entire technical content. Now only the survivors remain: those who had resigned themselves back then, and stuck with the jump content they were physically able to do are still with us and now able to win things because the skaters that are used to be able to deliver higher technical content can't do it anymore. Prime example of this is Kaori, of course. And even she had her ups and downs.

Like you said, this is how it works with men and they are consistent. In 2018-2022, the men were menning the way they are menning now, with some moments of brilliance. Many top men have quads but with varying level of success, even some had planned falls (so like how it is now). Not many men were able to include more than 1 of the higher-scoring quads in a consistent manner except for 1-2 people (or honestly just 1 person: Nathan then, and Ilia now), the same as how it is now. The men were just as capable of great skates as they are capable of epic meltdowns, regardless of whether they can just do 3A and 4T or more, just like now. Nothing changed that much with the men- their baseline is always 3A + at minimum 1 quad, the rest are outliers who can't quad or who have more than 1 quads, and the super top outliers are the ones who have more than 1 high-scoring quad (4Lo, 4F, 4Lz) and were able to do them in competition consistently.

So maybe the men have been performing true to their actual abilities all this time so we are used to the consistency of their peaks and valleys. While women had that short period where they seemed to reach that technical "peak" but since it was achieved through unsustainable means, the drop off is very harsh, and it made the current field look worse than they actually are, when this is likely as far as normal women who trained normally can take it physically.

Coincidentally, that "peak" was when you start following skating more closely, so you may have mistakenly thought that it was the women's true level of actual abilities.

 

[Andrina]

Aymoz just won a free (free!) over Malinin with 2 quad toe loops to Malinin's 4 quads of higher BV in Skate America. Women with 3T-3T beat women with 3Lz-3T. So, nope, the tech score doesn't decide who wins. It didn't in the past either, since lower tech skaters won quite often over the higher programs. When tech is equal, a guy with better PCS wins (see Adam vs Ilia in last year's French GP).

Aymoz won by 0.4 (0.4!) points. He skated to his personal best whereas Malinin had some mistakes. The difference in PCS was only 3 points (but should be 43) and 5 out of 9 judges still put Malinin first.

Of course, there is noise and there are some rare cases when ISU throws the bone to the fans and gives a medal to a skater with good components. But when it comes to the real battle, they will go with the one who has a higher tech score. Because ISU lobbiests come from those training camps where the focus is on tech elements and skating skills are seen as a waste of time.