Sasha certainly has the potential to win the OGM. However, judging from the previous two Olympics, the favorite does not always win. I know many people will scream at me for calling Sasha the favorite. I am not her fan (it's not the opposite either), but my prediction is that she will win worlds 2005, and will automatically be the favorite for the 2006 Olympics. She seems to achieve more with Robin Wagner than with any of her previous coaches (even though she had more GP wins with TT).
Now about the competition-
My guess is that the Russians are not going to be a factor in 2006. The main reason is that there is no young Russian lady that can challenge for the top spot, the way Irina did in 2002. As much as I would love to see Irina skate great, her health and her age may make it very difficult. I don't see Sokolova and Volchkova as top medal contenders, inspite of Sokolova's world silver last year. I think she had a great worlds in 2003 but it won't happen again. She can do the 3-3's but I don't see her competing against Kwan and Cohen in presentation. If there is a wild card from Russia, I would say it is Julia Soldatova, who recently became a Russian citizen but could not go to worlds this year.
Isn't it interesting that I said 'Kwan and Cohen' and not 'Cohen and Kwan'? In my mind Kwan is still the queen of the ice. She pulls it off when it counts. That did not happen in the 2002 Olympics, but it could happen in 2006 when she will have less pressure from others, and even from herself.
I will deal with the Europeans first, since there are fewer contenders there (that's a scary thought- a whole continent having fewer contenders than tiny Japan?). Carolina Kostner will provide a very serious competition to Sasha. Not only is she talented, but she will also be skating before the home crowd (remember Sarah Hughes in SLC?). She can compete with the Japanese ladies in the 3-3-2 department. She is likely to develop artistically and she has great speed on ice. She also happens to share the nationality with the president of ISU. Julia Sebestyen has splendid jumps and she is an excellent skater. However, the judges don't seem to respect her. If she gets a difficult 3-3 combo (even two may be needed) it could make her a medal contender. Otherwise she will be pushed down to make room for the jumping beans. I have not watched Pavuk, so I cannot comment on her.
Now the emerging Japanese ladies. I would be absolutely thrilled to see Yukina Ota grab the gold in Torino. However, she may not even make the Japanese Olympic team unless she improves her jumps and the difficulty of her jump combinations. IMO the Japanese fed should plan on adding her to their team regardless. At times the judges have gone for the jumps (1998, 2002). At other times have gone for the artistry (1994, and to some extent 1992). Since the Japanese have such a deep talent pool, they should plan on having Ando and Ota on their Olympic team to cover the whole spectrum. Does that mean the world champ Arakawa would be left out? I doubt it, unless she bombs at next year's worlds. Actually Shizuka has both- artistry and the jumps, and if she improves her expresssion (very likely in the TT camp), the Japanese will be crazy to leave her out. She is the only 'proven' Japanese lady right now. Sadly, I don't see Fumie making the team unless it is to replace Ota. Fumie has beaten Sasha but, like others of her generation, she will need those difficult jumps just to make the Japanese team. Right this moment, Fumie and Shizuka are the only ones that can beat Sasha. However, in 2 years both Ando and Ota (and probably a few others) could challenge Sasha. After this year's worlds I will be very surprised if Ando did not work hard on her artistry. I don't see Yoshie Onda challenging Sasha, unless she lands a triple axel-triple toe combination. Neither do I see the Asada sisters being ready by 2006. However, there may be half a dozen Japanese young ladies waiting in the wings at this point to grab an Olympic berth.
I have almost come to the end of the discussion and I have not even mentioned the Canadian ladies. I have watched Cynthia Phaneuf and I liked her potential. However, I want to see her make great strides artistically, and be consistent with her jumps, in order to challenge for the top spot at Turin. Of course she can develop a lot in 2 years. Whether she has the mental toughness or not, has to be seen. I have heard a lot about Joannie Rochette, but I have not seen her skate, so it will be futile for me to comment on her. So right now I am going to hold off my prediction for the Canadian ladies.
Going back to the original question- Sasha's path to the OGM will NOT be an easy one, starting from the US nationals. In the past, winning the USN used to be the toughest thing. Not so anymore. In fact when Michelle won the USN in 1998, most people thought that all she had to do was skate two clean programs in Nagano to win the gold. My gut feeling is that the US ladies will still rule, but the chances of a Japanese OGM will be strong for the first time since 1992. The chances of a European OGM will be strong for the first time since 1988 (I counted Irina S. as 'Russian' and not 'European; I also put Oksana in 94 under 'Russian' rather than 'European).
If I were to group all the 2006 gold medal possibilities in the ladies event, I would group them as follows:
Group I (high probability):
Sasha, Shizuka, Michelle, Carolina, Miki-
Any of these 5 can win the OGM (I may have jinxed them ALL!)
Group II (medium probability):
Kimmie M., Yukina Ota, Irina S., Katy, Fumie, Beatrisa (I added her later when I realized I had forgotten her) -
Irina and Fumie may seem too old compared to the others in this group. I have to go with the younger skaters, only because of the jumps. I like Irina's chances better than Fumie's, although Fumie is a lovely skater, because Irina is a (naturally) stronger jumper.
Group III (low probability):
Jenny K., Julia Sebestyen, Yoshie Onda, Cynthia P., Pavuk (based on what I heard)- only Phaneuf and Pavuk are young enough to have a realistic chance. The reason I put them in this group is that I have not watched them (Phaneuf just once, and Pavuk never). I went with trusted names like Irina and Fumie in the medium probability group.
Vash
and random...but better now than in 20 months or so, I guess
