ISU rankings, Japanese ladies, weird math, and whatever else we want to throw in

[Spirit]

ISU rankings, Japanese ladies, weird math, and whatever else we want to throw in

Chain of events:

I'm watching the ladies skate at NHK, and I think about how every Japanese skater will want to be there. I wonder if there's a limit; will the Japanese bus be too crowded? (And Shizuka's not there.)

So that makes me think about the rise of Japanese lady skaters in the last five years, and I wonder how many are ranked in the top 20. I guess 5.

And that leads me to the ISU web site (I know, I know, place of evil, but what can you do?) to check out the world standings.

And that leads me to this thread.

It seems to me that no one cares about the world rankings. They do exist; the ISU has a formula and ranks every skater. But they're never mentioned on TV, nor in any forum that I have ever seen. The skaters themselves don't even seem to give a flip.

When you stop to think about this, that's really mind-boggling. A sport in which no one cares about the rankings? Compare that with tennis, in which players live and die -- and receive bonuses from their sponsors -- by their rankings, and fans meticulously track the rankings like other people track lottery numbers.

But then I discovered why no one seems to care: the rankings just aren't that accurate. And maybe in a sport like figure skating, they'll never be accurate using a strict mathematical system.

In pairs, I received a shock by seeing that Totmianina & Marinin were ranked 3rd, behind Petrova & Tikhonov and Pang & Tong. But then I figured out that the reason for this is that T&M missed the Grand Prix series last year because of their fall at SA, and consequently have a couple of goose eggs there. So I can (sort of) understand the math, but it still doesn't look right. The two-time defending European and world champions ranked 3rd?

And then there's Michelle Kwan, who sits out the Grand Prix each year and is consequently ranked 25th in the world. Now there's an accurate placement.

And to answer my own question from earlier, I was low. FWIW (because, after all, these numbers can be skewed), the Japanese have 7 of the top 20 ladies in the world -- 1/3 of the field!

2. Shizuka Arakawa
3. Miki Ando
4. Fumie Suguri
9. Yoshie Onda
14. Mao Asada
17. Aki Sawada
18. Yukari Nakano

The next highest is the USA with three: Sasha Cohen, Kimmie Meissner, and Amber Corwin. (Yes, that's right, Amber Corwin is ranked higher than Michelle Kwan.)

The page I linked to links to a document explaining the math behind the ranking system. I haven't read it because I don't suffer from insomnia.

(This topic could easily lead into a long discussion about how skaters could unionize and share in the governance of their sport, but I kind of hope it doesn't, since the Earth probably has a greater chance of spontaneously exploding than that ever happening.)

Just thought I'd share. Pity the 4th-best Japanese lady skater; bad math or good math, she'll be top 20 material but won't be going to Torino.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Since I am aware on how this is determined, the rankings do not phase me at all.

Joe

 

[Ptichka]

1. Ranking are supposed to encourage skaters to participate in the Grand Prix.

2. Nobody cares because there are no insentives to get a high ranking.

 

[Mathman]

The Japanese ladies are all over the Grand Prix. Three of the six finalists are Japanese, two of the three alternates, and in total, 6 of the top 11. I don't know if that's just a coincidence or if the Japanese federation takes these events more seriously than anyone else.

About incentives, this is kind of strange, too. In athletics, winning the gold star is its own incentive. Why do you skate in the Olympics? To win a gold medal. Why do you skate at Worlds? To win the championship. So it is curious to me that the ISU has not been successful in promoting the idea -- "Hey everybody, look, I'm #1!!!!!!!!!"

Actually, I think this will be an interesting test of the power of the ISU to influence the direction of the sport and the proclivities of its athletes. If they keep harping on the importance of the Grand Prix and the ISU world rankings, maybe eventually it will become a self-fulling prophesy. Speedy says this is important, so I guess it must be.

Mathman

 

[soogar]

Well the Japanese definitely take the GP seriously b/c the criteria to GUARANTEE a spot on their Olympic team is to make the GP final *and* win a medal. That's probably why Oda and Yukari were bawling so hard at NHK. All Yukari (and Miki) need to do is medal at GP final and Shiz, Fumie and Yoshie will be fighting for that 3rd spot at 4Cs. I think that Shiz and Fumie have a bit of a break b/c Asada is in the Final and could take a medal which would allow one less girl to get a guaranteed spot on the team assuming that Irina will medal/win the GP final.

Imagine if every federation took the GP as seriously. I think it's fairer to base the team on year round results rather than just one National title but the USFS doesn't think that way. Right now the US still has top ladies. Though I wonder if they will change their stance once the Japanese start burying the US ladies at Worlds and the Olympics. Right now Japan is really building up its singles skaters. They're not quite dominant yet, but at this rate they will be and it's only a matter of time before you'll see 2 Japanese ladies on the podium at Worlds. Once that happens, I bet the USFS will start reevaluating its criteria for picking its teams.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

Right now the US still has top ladies. Though I wonder if they will change their stance once the Japanese start burying the US ladies at Worlds and the Olympics. Right now Japan is really building up its singles skaters. They're not quite dominant yet, but at this rate they will be and it's only a matter of time before you'll see 2 Japanese ladies on the podium at Worlds. Once that happens, I bet the USFS will start reevaluating its criteria for picking its teams.

I have a question... If we suppose that the dominance of US Ladies will end after the '06 World Championships (provided any US Lady with an '06 Olympics team jacket shows up...) and is replaced by the Japanese field, here's a question...

We seem to base so many opinions on skaters' standings from the previous Worlds, but what the Japanese skaters put out there in '05 didn't reflect, IMO, the true level of their talent and do you think this is in relation to the Japanese federation's hard core pushing of the GP? Is it truly too much?

 

[nicole_l]

I checked out the Men's standings and they're surprisingly accurate with one exception (IMO): Lambiel is ranked 8th. Other than that they're pretty OK by me.

 

[CDMM1991]

I checked out the Men's standings and they're surprisingly accurate with one exception (IMO): Lambiel is ranked 8th. Other than that they're pretty OK by me.

ITA Nicole. The men's standings seem to reflect the real situation much more accurately. Maybe this is because almost all of the top men participate in the Grand Prix?

 

[soogar]

I have a question... If we suppose that the dominance of US Ladies will end after the '06 World Championships (provided any US Lady with an '06 Olympics team jacket shows up...) and is replaced by the Japanese field, here's a question...

We seem to base so many opinions on skaters' standings from the previous Worlds, but what the Japanese skaters put out there in '05 didn't reflect, IMO, the true level of their talent and do you think this is in relation to the Japanese federation's hard core pushing of the GP? Is it truly too much?

I think there was a lot of wuzrobbing of the Japanese ladies at Worlds. Shirota is going to have to learn how to politick for her skaters b/c she certainly has the talent in the wings. That said, there is an enormous amount of pressure on the Japanese ladies. There's the expectations of a country on their shoulders and we all saw how Midori imploded under the pressure.

And if you think about it, the GP standings did reflect how the Japanese ladies did. Sure , no one made the podium but all three of their ladies were in the top 10 and Japan qualified three ladies spots for the very first time for the Olympics. That's a pretty big improvement from the last Olympic cycle. They are only going to get better as they make skating a long term priority.

 

[Spirit]

That said, there is an enormous amount of pressure on the Japanese ladies. There's the expectations of a country on their shoulders and we all saw how Midori imploded under the pressure.

From what I've heard, the pressure of Japanese society and culture is one of the most intense on the planet. That's a culture that doesn't take shame, or loss, well.

I'm also thinking of the Japanese terrorist hostages from last year. When they arrived home, the Japanese public really turned on them, heaping shame on them, in much the same way that if a woman gets raped, people have a tendency to scorn her for being a victim rather than scorning the perpetrator. I hope I'm not going out on a limb with that one, so no flames, please, but that's my impression of one aspect of Japanese culture.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

I think there was a lot of wuzrobbing of the Japanese ladies at Worlds. Shirota is going to have to learn how to politick for her skaters b/c she certainly has the talent in the wings. That said, there is an enormous amount of pressure on the Japanese ladies. There's the expectations of a country on their shoulders and we all saw how Midori imploded under the pressure.

And if you think about it, the GP standings did reflect how the Japanese ladies did. Sure , no one made the podium but all three of their ladies were in the top 10 and Japan qualified three ladies spots for the very first time for the Olympics. That's a pretty big improvement from the last Olympic cycle. They are only going to get better as they make skating a long term priority.

Very true, even if you take DivaKwara, Mao, and Fumie/Miki out of the picture, the talent goes on & on... imagine if the US had a true fight for the three Olympic spots ~ I'd be a happy girl! (The reality of US skating for the 2006-07 season, much less 2010 is looking so boring... three or four skaters that don't do a thing for me... that's the true problem with Kwan & impending retirement, US skating fans have been spoiled for so long ~ its been root for Kwan or root for the other one for the past 12 years )

Hopefully, with so much talent, the pressure will become more internal based on ambition vs. the external of national pride.

Should be cool to see it develops.

 

[Spirit]

The rise of the Japanese ladies brings up another point: why is it only the ladies? Where is the score of Japanese men, pairs and ice dancers?

In China, pairs have been on the rise more than the other three disciplines combined because of Yao Bin; it's really the result of a single person's devotion rather than a nation's agenda. Did the same thing happen with Japan, perhaps starting with Midori?

 

[soogar]

The rise of the Japanese ladies brings up another point: why is it only the ladies? Where is the score of Japanese men, pairs and ice dancers?

In China, pairs have been on the rise more than the other three disciplines combined because of Yao Bin; it's really the result of a single person's devotion rather than a nation's agenda. Did the same thing happen with Japan, perhaps starting with Midori?

Well the Japanese men are doing pretty well. There have been top Japanese ladies for a while so maybe there was already more talent to develop. The Japanese men have been coming on strong as of late and as the federation continues to develop them, they will be as strong as the ladies.

As for pairs, Japan like the US has a shortage of male skaters. There are a few Japanese ladies competing internationally for other countries (Ie Inoue and Wakamatsu) and I think this number will increase as the Japanese ladies becomes more competitive. As for ice dance, Watanabe and Kido (So I've heard) were encouraged to continue competing so they can use their experience to develop ice dance in Japan. Also there seems to be shortages of ice time in Japan and it's very hard to develop the couples' disciplines of the couple doesn't have ice time to practice.

 

[hockeyfan228]

The host nations' skaters get many more chances to compete in GP, going deeper into the ranks, because once their own skaters are chosen, and the mandatory picks are made, they use their discretionary picks for each others' skaters. This feeds into World Rankings.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

Also there seems to be shortages of ice time in Japan and it's very hard to develop the couples' disciplines of the couple doesn't have ice time to practice.

How long does it take for couples to become world class competitors in dance & pairs?? I know that B&A seemed to come outta nowhere, but I also know that S&Z have been on the competitive scene for years... What is the Russian model for their continued dominance in these two disciplines? And why doesn't the US adopt it???

 

[attyfan]

... What is the Russian model for their continued dominance in these two disciplines? And why doesn't the US adopt it???

The Russian dominance in pairs and ice dancing stemmed from the Soviet Union's emphasis on getting their best skaters into those two disciplines. Prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, few Russian men (I mean, men from Russia, whether before or after the Soviet era) won World titles and none won the OGM; even the first OGM from the former Soviet Union was not Russian, but Ukrainian. Similarly, no Russian women won World gold until Maria B (Oksana Baiul is also Ukranian, not Russian), and, none have won the OGM. Since the collapse, Russia has been doing much better in the singles events; but has lost world titles (and, maybe, OGMs) to Canadians, French, and Italian (ice dance) and to Canadians and Chinese (in pairs) Furthermore, the expected "Russian sweep" of the golds expected in Torino didn't exist until Zhao Hongbo got so badly hurt -- and the Chinese have adopted the Soviet athletic system.

IMO, the chances of the US adopting anything from the former Soviet Union to improve its skating are between zip and zilch.

 

[attyfan]

Well the Japanese definitely take the GP seriously b/c the criteria to GUARANTEE a spot on their Olympic team is to make the GP final *and* win a medal. That's probably why Oda and Yukari were bawling so hard at NHK. All Yukari (and Miki) need to do is medal at GP final and Shiz, Fumie and Yoshie will be fighting for that 3rd spot at 4Cs. I think that Shiz and Fumie have a bit of a break b/c Asada is in the Final and could take a medal which would allow one less girl to get a guaranteed spot on the team assuming that Irina will medal/win the GP final.

Imagine if every federation took the GP as seriously. I think it's fairer to base the team on year round results rather than just one National title but the USFS doesn't think that way. Right now the US still has top ladies. Though I wonder if they will change their stance once the Japanese start burying the US ladies at Worlds and the Olympics. Right now Japan is really building up its singles skaters. They're not quite dominant yet, but at this rate they will be and it's only a matter of time before you'll see 2 Japanese ladies on the podium at Worlds. Once that happens, I bet the USFS will start reevaluating its criteria for picking its teams.

Do you know what use, if any, of the GP series other federations make in picking World or Oly teams? I also doubt that the US skaters treat the GP lightly; most do the GP unless injured. I don't think that Kwan's failure to do the GP can be taken as representative of other US skaters, since she is in a unique situation.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

Furthermore, the expected "Russian sweep" of the golds expected in Torino didn't exist until Zhao Hongbo got so badly hurt -- and the Chinese have adopted the Soviet athletic system.

IMO, the chances of the US adopting anything from the former Soviet Union to improve its skating are between zip and zilch.

Thanks for the history lesson... I forgot about the rational, logical part of skating!

And I think MM would agree with your math equation!

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

attnfan - The collapse of the Soviet Union did not end the Russian skating ethic. They learned during that period of how to develop strong technique in their skating and it is still apparent today. They also retained how important it is to win for the State. I don't think these factors will disappear in the near future if at all. I would assume that losing a competition for a Russian competitor would have much more feelings than it would be for a N.American.

I think the British as more in line with enjoying the sport and how it is played and certainly not with emphasis on the glory of the State. They like it but it's all but forgotten the next day.

The N.Americans are much too ethnically diverse to be unified in rooting just for 'the born on the 4th of July' people. And if an American child wants to skate there is no problem (maybe financial) with doing it for America. Those kids want to win for themselves, and the State takes a back seat.

I think the Russians have the right idea.

Joe

 

[soogar]

How long does it take for couples to become world class competitors in dance & pairs?? I know that B&A seemed to come outta nowhere, but I also know that S&Z have been on the competitive scene for years... What is the Russian model for their continued dominance in these two disciplines? And why doesn't the US adopt it???

Well B&A have been together since they were teenagers (Ben was 15 when they paired up) so they didn't come out of nowhere. As for adopting the Russian model well it seems that Igor and several other Russians have come to the US to set up skating schools. I bet that Igor S will get a lot of competition from Zhulin/Platov in terms of competitive teams for US Nationals in the next few years. Of course unlike the Russian model, these guys don't coach a promising student for free and then take a contingent fee. They will have their center, and the most promising students with the deepest pockets will have the best chance to be champions. This isn't like that in Russia, though I suspect that Russia will go in that direction in the future.