Junior Worlds selection

[Sylvia]

Originally posted in the Four Continents thread and reposted here since the Junior World team will be selected based (primarily) on Nationals results and performances:

It will be interesting to see who USFS sends to Junior Worlds. Does the U.S. junior champion get an automatic invitation?

Mirai and Rachael competed in the Junior Grand Prix. Mirai would probably want to go, but this will be Rachaels' second year competing in U.S. Nationals as a senior and she may feel that she has moved on.

It would be funny if Caroline Zhang won the senior U.S. championship and then went to Junior Worlds to try to become the first junior world champion to repeat.

The junior champions at Nationals are not guaranteed automatic selection to Junior Worlds. Selection usually depends on ISU junior age-eligibility, recent international results, and results/performances at Nationals (senior and junior). With so many strong jr. age-eligible ladies competing in the Senior Ladies' event at Nationals, it's quite possible that the Junior World ladies' team will be made up of 3 seniors this year.

Rachael Flatt has not been to Junior Worlds and is a strong candidate for selection with her recent silver medal at the Junior Grand Prix Final. Of course she would want to go to Junior Worlds since, like Nagasu and Zhang, she is too young for Four Continents and Senior Worlds this season.

 

[feraina]

I agree that Rachael Flatt would want to go. Her season would be over otherwise. She has never been to JW unlike Caroline & Mirai. Besides the benefit of having a major international experience (the most major one she can have before next season anyway), she would also get a chance to improve her SB score as well as int'l reputation. Caroline will almost certainly get 2 GP's next year, Mirai will also get two (I think both NHK and SA will want her, if not some of the other GP hosts), but Rachael is guaranteed of only one so far from her JGPF results. If she can get a really good score at JW, or beat one or both of Caroline/Mirai, then she would dramatically improve her chances of getting 2 assignments.

Actually, I've been wondering which 3 ladies USFSA will pick for SA next year. Of course the outcome of this National's will play a major role, but as a very early guess, I'd think that they would like Kimmie, Caroline, and Mirai, just in terms of attracting fans. That would be really bad in terms of strategy there. All three have a legitimate shot at the GPF, and having all three of them going head-to-head has gotta hurt someone's chances -- plus USFSA has to pick two seeded skaters, which means two more strong competitors (if Kimmie places outside top 6 at WC).

 

[chuckm]

Unless the rules for GP assignments change this season, I think it's pretty sure that Rachael Flatt will get two GP assignments. Her JGPF score of 159.66 is virtually certain to be in the top 24 on the Seasons Best list (on last year's list, 144.40 was the 24th score). Skaters in the top 24 on the ISU World Ranking list or the SB list are guaranteed two assignments.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

There are fans of all skaters. The competitions are what drive me to pay big bucks for seeing skaters whomever are involved. I don't believe the USFS will single out the 3 this year to be on the podium next year. The slippery Rule applies as does the unfortunate illnesses and injuries that happen in one year. One has to ask themselves, if 2009 Cleveland (I believe that's the local) is worth the expense in attending regardless of who is skating?

The USFS knows that American fans and others in America will watch the Nationals on TV regardless of who is skating. There is no knee bashing or 'will this be Sasha's year' to make individuals to rush for tickets.

The USFS will put out Press Releases on all it's participating competitions. Rarely do I see any of the info picked up in NY newspapers. Maybe the week preceding the event.

However, Plugging the Hollywood Worlds is a biggie! Between the USFS and NBC, there will be plenty of hype regardless of who is in the mix. Hopefully the US will get 3 entrants for each discipline.

Joe

 

[feraina]

Unless the rules for GP assignments change this season, I think it's pretty sure that Rachael Flatt will get two GP assignments. Her JGPF score of 159.66 is virtually certain to be in the top 24 on the Seasons Best list (on last year's list, 144.40 was the 24th score). Skaters in the top 24 on the ISU World Ranking list or the SB list are guaranteed two assignments.

I'm surprised to hear that, because Mirai's coach said in interviews that part of the reason that they chose to do the JGPF this year is because she was only guaranteed one GP assignment from her JW result. But her JW score was 163.84.

Where did you see that top 24 in SB list are guaranteed two assignments?

 

[feraina]

I just found a pretty comprehensive and accurate (AFAIK) list of GP selection criteria (from last year) over at FSU forum.
http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showpost.php?p=1344117&postcount=34

Only the top 1-12 at WC are guaranteed 2 events. Top 24 on season's best are only guaranteed 1 event, as do top 24 on ISU world rankings list. So Rachael is only guaranteed 1 so far.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I just found a pretty comprehensive and accurate (AFAIK) list of GP selection criteria (from last year) over at FSU forum.
http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showpost.php?p=1344117&postcount=34

Only the top 1-12 at WC are guaranteed 2 events. Top 24 on season's best are only guaranteed 1 event, as do top 24 on ISU world rankings list. So Rachael is only guaranteed 1 so far.

And some Pairs Teams are allowed 3.but at the discretion of the ISU and only if they are top teams.

Joe

 

[nadster]

Only the top 1-12 at WC are guaranteed 2 events. Top 24 on season's best are only guaranteed 1 event, as do top 24 on ISU world rankings list. So Rachael is only guaranteed 1 so far.

That is true, but I have never seen an instance where someone on the top 24 on season's best list did not eventually get a second assignment.

Those that are guaranteed one assignment usually are the very first on the list to get a second assignment after all the guaranteed slots have been filled. They will get their second assignment before the others on the top 75 list who aren't guaranteed any assignments will get their first.

 

[chuckm]

Nadster is right---the top 24 on the ISU World Ranking list and the top 24 on the SB list always seem to get two GP assignments. Also, last year the Singles JGPF and JW medalists who opted for the GP all got two assignments.

 

[Sylvia]

It will be interesting to see who USFS sends to Junior Worlds. Does the U.S. junior champion get an automatic invitation?

Elaborating on my previous answer...

Since 2000 (when Junior Worlds was moved to early Feb./early March and U.S. Nationals results were used for selection), only 6 U.S. junior ladies (vs. 18 senior ladies) from Nationals have been selected for Junior Worlds -- Louann Donovan (junior champ in 2002), Kimmie Meissner and Katy Taylor (1st & 2nd in 2004), Mirai Nagasu, Caroline Zhang and Ashley Wagner (1st-3rd in 2007). Megan Hyatt (junior champ in 2006) went to Jr. Worlds as the first alternate when Katy Taylor withdrew in 2006.

ETA: Please feel free to start a separate thread titled something like "Senior Grand Prix selection and early speculation for 2008" in The Edge folder.

 

[Kypma]

I'm surprised to hear that, because Mirai's coach said in interviews that part of the reason that they chose to do the JGPF this year is because she was only guaranteed one GP assignment from her JW result. But her JW score was 163.84.

I thought part of the reason was also the fact that Mirai had very little international experience (Junior Worlds 2007, I believe),so they also wanted to be able to try some new things without the added pressure of the Senior GP. They preferred to do Junior bascally because there was less pressure, less media, and a little more international exposure before entering the Senior ranks.

Kypma

 

[chuckm]

I'm sure Mirai would have received 2 GP assignments, just as Zhang, Wagner and Oster did. But her lack of competition experience (her one and only international comp was Junior Worlds) would have hurt Mirai in the GP and it made MUCH more sense for Mirai to hone her skills in the JGP (and win lots of medals and recognition in the process).

 

[ChrisH]

Since 2000 (when Junior Worlds was moved to early Feb./early March and U.S. Nationals results were used for selection), only 6 U.S. junior ladies (vs. 18 senior ladies) from Nationals have been selected for Junior Worlds -- Louann Donovan (junior champ in 2002), Kimmie Meissner and Katy Taylor (1st & 2nd in 2004), Mirai Nagasu, Caroline Zhang and Ashley Wagner (1st-3rd in 2007). Megan Hyatt (junior champ in 2006) went to Jr. Worlds as the first alternate when Katy Taylor withdrew in 2006.

So last year was an aberration. In Ashley's case, the USFA may have preferred that Ashley skated her junior programs well several times in front of international panels while Rachael did not. That outweighed the Nationals results, which were 159.75 points and 5th for Rachael competiting as a senior and 145.86 points and 3rd for Ashley competiting as a junior. If the same holds true for this year, that favors Rachael over Ashley and the juniors.

2. Age limits for Single & Pair Skating / Ice Dancing
a) In ISU Senior Championships and the Olympic Winter Games only Skaters may compete who have reached at least the age of fifteen (15) before [the] July 1st preceding these Events;
c) in International Junior Competitions and ISU Junior Championships a Junior is a Skater who has met the following requirements before [the] July 1st preceding these Events:
i) has reached at least the age of thirteen (13);
ii) has not reached the age of nineteen (19) for Ladies and Men in singles competition

Here's an UNOFFICIAL compilation of the skaters with byes and the Sectional qualifiers (E = Eastern, M = Midwestern, P = Pacific Coast).

* = 1st year senior at Nationals

SENIOR LADIES
Kimmie Meissner B (= Bye)
Emily Hughes B
Alissa Czisny B
Bebe Liang B
Rachael Flatt B
*Mirai Nagasu B
*Caroline Zhang B
*Ashley Wagner B
*Chrissy Hughes B
*Katrina Hacker E1
Melissa Bulanhagui E2
Megan Williams-Stewart E3
Stephanie Roth E4
*Molly Oberstar M1
*Becky Bereswill M2
Megan Hyatt M3
Angie Lien M4
*Tenile Victorsen P1
*Laney Diggs P2
Danielle Kahle P3
*Karen Zhou P4

JUNIOR LADIES
Alexe Gilles B
Kristine Musademba B
Jane Ruan E1
Brittney Rizo E2
Masha Leonov E3
Rebecca Stern E4
Angela Maxwell M1
Kirsten Olson M2
Alexa Scimeca M3
Victoria Fairchild M4
Ellie Kawamura P1
Carolyn-Ann Alba P2
Amanda Dobbs P3
Victoria Rackohn P4

With a few exceptions, all of the seniors ladies are age eligible for World Juniors. The World Junior selections may be stronger as a group than the senior selections. In that sense, it may be harder to make the World Juniors team.

I think that the leading candidates, in order, are Caroline Zhang, Mirai Nagasu, Rachael Flatt, Ashley Wagner, Ellie Kawamura, Katrina Hacker, Kirsten Olson, Kristine Musademba, and Angela Maxwell.

Caroline also needs to go to World Juniors to improve on her rankings. The ISU ranking system heavily penalizes skaters who don't participate in at least one of the following: World Juniors, Worlds, Four Continents, or the European Championships.

 

[Sylvia]

I think that the leading candidates, in order, are Caroline Zhang, Mirai Nagasu, Rachael Flatt, Ashley Wagner, Ellie Kawamura, Katrina Hacker, Kirsten Olson, Kristine Musademba, and Angela Maxwell.

So that means you think the top 4 Junior Ladies at Nationals will be Kawamura, Olson, Musademba and Maxwell? (Kawamura and Olson are the only two you've listed who have yet to compete in a JGP; Hacker competed in one JGP in the fall of 2006 and placed 5th in Romania.)

 

[ChrisH]

So that means you think the top 4 Junior Ladies at Nationals will be Kawamura, Olson, Musademba and Maxwell?

For the most part, yes. That's what the numbers tell me and I haven't given up on them yet.

Three of these four ladies skated well in the novice division at last season's Nationals. Maxwell was 1st, Musademba 2nd, and Kawamura 5th. Kawamura outskated the 3rd placed novice lady, Carolyn-Ann Alba, in regional and sectional qualifying this season.

(Kawamura and Olson are the only two you've listed who have yet to compete in a JGP; Hacker competed in one JGP in the fall of 2006 and placed 5th in Romania.)

Fortunately, I was able to find bios for these ladies. Do you know when bios might become available (for the lesser known ladies)?

Olson's name came up due to having good skates in qualifying, being a young 16, and having 4 different kinds of triples. (I think that Chrissy Hughes has an injury or something based on poor skates at the Northwest Pacific regional and the JGPF.)

I did watch sectionals at "the Kerrigan site", but I didn't learn much other than that they are a fair ways off Zhang, Nagasu, and Flatt.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I thought part of the reason was also the fact that Mirai had very little international experience (Junior Worlds 2007, I believe),so they also wanted to be able to try some new things without the added pressure of the Senior GP. They preferred to do Junior bascally because there was less pressure, less media, and a little more international exposure before entering the Senior ranks.Kypma

Not to mention it probably means a gold medal for the USFS in Juniors.

Joe