If Michelle decides to compete next season (which I believe she will), she will be just fine. She has saved herself the past three seasons (to have a chance in Torino) ... and I know that is a real source of anger and frustration for many, but she made a decision and there is no looking back. Whatever happen next season, she made the best choice for herself, and she can be happy with that. There is nothing about COP that she can't handle. Anyone who is counting on her to be out of the running is making a huge mistake.
Kwan at the Crossroads and Choices
- Thread starter Joesitz (RIP)
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- Mar 28, 2005
Well the fact she could not win 98 and 2002, when she was going into the Olympic year in a far stronger position than she is right now, makes it easy to see why even some of her ardent fans are skeptical of her chances to win the gold. The only theory, relative to 98 and 2002, in her favor I can see is her not having the pressure of being the favorite, but I dont even agree on that since the U.S mass media will still promote her as the overwhelming favorite for the gold, and place that pressure and expectation on her.
I don't see why so many people are quick to say a coach has too high an opinion of their athlete when they publicly praise them. What is said in public does not necesarily reflect what is said in a private lesson. Skating has so many political overtones to it that I would seriously question a coach that criticizes too much publicly. If I had a coach that did that, I would dump them quickly. Critique me in private, build me up in the public eye.
slutskayafan21 said:
Oh but the Cohen camp / Nicks are promoting Cohen as the #1 America lady skater, so I doubt Kwan will be the overwhelming favorite for the gold even from USA press. Internationally we all know from posters outside of US are not impressed with Kwan (they keep reminding us about this).
Irina will be the defending world champ, she will be the overwhelming favorite for gold, Kostner will be the hometown girl and regining bronze medalist the faavorite for gold in Italy, and Cohen will be promoted by Nicks and USA as the #1 USA lady, Kwan will not have the pressure.
I believe Irian will win the gold in Turin, that makes her overall achievement in her career ahead of Kwan. Cohen will need to win an oly gold medal at 06 or 2010 to have an overall career record ahead of Michelle. Irina will be toughg for Cohen to beat next year, in 2010 who knows.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
It is interesting to look at the numbers. In total jumps, the scores in the LP (counting GOE) wereslutskayafan21 said:
Irina 42.82
Sasha 41.15
Michelle 38.65
Michelle lost 5.71 points on her two flubbed jumps (the fall on the Salchow and the problems on the second Lutz). If she had landed those jumps cleanly, everything else being equal, Michelle would have won the jumping part of the contest, with 44.36
Michelle also scored the highest on her straight line step sequence (3.60 to 3.53 for Irina and 3.39 for Sasha).
Where Michelle lost ground was on the spins and the spiral sequence. (Oh, those Bielmanns!)
Total spins: Irina 13.14, Sasha 12.69, Michelle 9.41; Spiral: Irina 4.54, Sasha 5.40, Michelle 3.96.
To me, it's the same as it always was. Land the jumps, and everything else will follow automatically (high PCS, for instance).
Mathman
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
Yes, for the jump elements in the Short Program it washeyang said:
Michelle: 16.96
Irina: 16.24
Sasha: 16.10
Where Michelle lost it was again in the component scores; Irina, 30.34, Sasha, 30.08, Michelle, 29.02.
So according to the CoP, Michelle is just a little jumping bean who can outjump the other girls every time. But alas, her presentation is not up to par. She's sort of like Yoshie Onda, according to the New Judging System.
Mathman
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
Hmm...There is no way to come up with a rating system that everyone would agree with, but if it were up to me, I would make it something like this:gezando said:
Olympic Gold -- 10 points
Olympic silver -- 5 points
Olympic bronze -- 3 points
World Gold -- 5 points
World silver -- 3 points
World bronze -- 1 point
Europeans -- 3,2 and 1 (It's not fair to include European titles to compare one skater against another, because non-European skaters can't compete. Still, in evaluating the career of a competitor like Slutskaya, you can't overlook 6 European championships. Four Continents, for various reasons, is not a prestigious enough event to make the list.)
National Championship -- 1 point. (Again, not exactly fair, because a skater representing a small country might win a bunch of them without competition. Oh, well.)
Grand Prix championships -- 1 point.
Grand Prix finals -- 3,2 and 1.
OK, so Michelle has Olympic silver and bronze, 5 world championships, 3 silver and 1 bronze, plus 9 U.S. championships. That's 52 points so far, plus some Grand Prix points.
Irina has Olympic silver, 2 world championships, 3 world silvers, 6 European gold, 2 Euro silvers, and 6 (?) Russian Nationals. That's also 52, plus lately Irina has a big edge over Michelle in Grand Prix points.
I guess I better factor in Michelle's gold in Torino!
I think both Cohen and Kwan will get a lot of publicity from the U.S. press. As for me personally, it has taken me a long time to warm up to Sasha's skating. Despite excellent results in the last two World championships, I am a fan of only 90% of her skating. That's the 90% of her from the ankles up, LOL.
Mathman
- Joined
- Sep 24, 2003
I don't think she's at the crossroads at all. I think she just needs to do the GP...and maybe tack on a biellmann or two or three...hundred! in her program.
- Joined
- Jul 27, 2003
gezando said:
Michelle can handle pressure a lot better than Sasha, who doesn't handle it well at all. Sasha skated as well as she did at Worlds this year because she was totally overshadowed by Irina and knew she had no chance to win. But Torino is another thing entirely. Sasha wants to win very, very badly because then she can retire to a lucrative pro career.
I think Irina has the best chance of winning the OGM because she is the reigning World Champion, and if she can duplicate her Worlds performances she is in like Flynn. But that is a big if. She will be skating in Torino, not at home, and it was in Torino that she had her disastrous FS at Euros this year. I suspect the altitude at Torino may have been a problem for her, because her disease and the prednisone she takes to control it affect her lungs. Because of that, she really can't prepare ahead of time at altitude to acclimate herself without risking a worsening of her health.
About Kostner: yes, Kwan barely beat her in the SP and FS, but Kwan's jump content didn't compare to Kostner's and Kwan's programs were not CoP friendly, as Kostner's were. Kwan won on PCS, and because she didn't have good CoP programs, her PCS marks weren't anywhere as high as they would be with better choreography and transitions. Kostner still looks a tad gawky and her moves are rough and unfinished. Once Kwan adds more jump content, even slightly better spins, and better choreography, and she will be way ahead of Kostner no matter how many 3/3s Kostner throws in.
I think Irina has the best chance of winning the OGM because she is the reigning World Champion, and if she can duplicate her Worlds performances she is in like Flynn. But that is a big if. She will be skating in Torino, not at home, and it was in Torino that she had her disastrous FS at Euros this year. I suspect the altitude at Torino may have been a problem for her, because her disease and the prednisone she takes to control it affect her lungs. Because of that, she really can't prepare ahead of time at altitude to acclimate herself without risking a worsening of her health.
About Kostner: yes, Kwan barely beat her in the SP and FS, but Kwan's jump content didn't compare to Kostner's and Kwan's programs were not CoP friendly, as Kostner's were. Kwan won on PCS, and because she didn't have good CoP programs, her PCS marks weren't anywhere as high as they would be with better choreography and transitions. Kostner still looks a tad gawky and her moves are rough and unfinished. Once Kwan adds more jump content, even slightly better spins, and better choreography, and she will be way ahead of Kostner no matter how many 3/3s Kostner throws in.
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2003
slutskayafan21 said:
Those "several areas" wouldn't include, by any chance, 9562 ways to include the Bielmann in your program now would they?
I think Kwan has just as much of a chance of winning gold in Italy as Irina, Cohen, Kostner and anyone else you throw in there. IF she decides she wants to compete, I think she knows what she has to do. And we have to remember that she didn't finish that far off the podium at Worlds. And yeah, so Cohen and Irina outscored her in other areas. Maybe if Kwan had fallen on her jumps instead of doubling them, had a whale of a better QR, you might have seen different results. Who knows? But I hope something is done about the repetitive moves to score points, otherwise every program you see from someone with a flexible back will include Bielmannitis.
Agreed! At Worlds 2005, everyone who could grab a was leg doing Biellmanns and traveling all over the ice on their spins. It must have been very monotonous for the judges. And no one can do a Biellmann anywhere near as good as the original. Denise Biellmann grabbed the blade with both hands, not cheating by grabbing with one hand and holding the wrist with the other, such as Irina's ersatz Biellmann.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
euterpe said:
Unfortunately, the judges just ate those travelling Bielmans up. I think Sasha would have won that night because they also dig her wow spirals.
I can hear Ethel Merman singing "There's no Bielman's like Denise Bielman like no Bielman I know."
Joe
Joesitz said:Unfortunately, the judges just ate those travelling Bielmans up. I think Sasha would have won that night because they also dig her wow spirals.
I can hear Ethel Merman singing "There's no Bielman's like Denise Bielman like no Bielman I know."
Joe
LOL
I've also never realized that the handhold was different, Denise's really is harder. I'll appreciate it even more now.
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- Joined
- Mar 28, 2005
realistic51 said:
Yes they would. Even as an Irina fan I agree skaters should not be rewarded for doing a repetive move, but those are the rules, and they are not going to greatly change before an Olympics in an Olympic cycle.
- Joined
- Mar 28, 2005
Mathman said:
You are forgetting Irina lost points by doing a third triple loop which she got no credit for, for her remaining jump window. Had she done another triple toe with the double loop for example, instead of the triple loop/double loop she would have received an additional 4+ points. Had she done a second triple lutz instead she would have received an additional 6+ points. She choice to do a jump for the 3rd time she received no credit for.
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- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
A little bit OT for this Michelle thread, but that was so cool when Irina threw in that triple loop instead of the planned double at the end of her first combination. It was like she wanted to stop after two, but she was so sky high she just kept on twirling!
Yes, it cost her some points, but she got it back on the PCS for sheer exuberance.
Mathman
Yes, it cost her some points, but she got it back on the PCS for sheer exuberance.
Mathman
- Joined
- Mar 28, 2005
Mathman said:
I agree, she was just so excited in the last 2 minutes of the program, it was like she was riding a wave on the ocean.
She just wanted to keep doing more and more, and keep flying. It was like Michelle at the end of her long program at the 2000 Worlds, do you remember how fast she went around that last corner.