Ladies Free: Article (spoilers)
- Thread starter R.D.
- Start date
I'm sorry, but I just can't help but add my 2 cents to the "Hand the OGM to Irina now" posts. Yeah, and the Titanic was unsinkable.
Don't get me wrong. I'm rooting for Irina by just the slightest margin over Arakawa, but that margin is wobbly. One day it's Irina, another day it's Shizza.
I'd be thrilled if Irina won the OGM--IF she skates like she's been skating and doesn't skate another tight and clunky LP like she did in SLC. But I'm especially concerned about a flare of her vasculitis and pericarditis showing up at just the wrong time.
As I've said before, I'd also be thrilld in Shizuka won, again if it she deserves it, so I'd be happy either way. Though I must say I'd also be sad for Irina having to deal with a repeat of SLC.
As for Sasha, I'd like to see her win the bronze--huge IF she deserves it. That girl has a heck of a lot of work to do between now and Nats and Olys.
Then we have the possible X factor: If the ISU and IOC make an exception to the age rule, allowing Asada to skate, and if she wins or medals, well, that's a whole other thread.
Remember, iceburgs are out there.
Rgirl
Don't get me wrong. I'm rooting for Irina by just the slightest margin over Arakawa, but that margin is wobbly. One day it's Irina, another day it's Shizza.
I'd be thrilled if Irina won the OGM--IF she skates like she's been skating and doesn't skate another tight and clunky LP like she did in SLC. But I'm especially concerned about a flare of her vasculitis and pericarditis showing up at just the wrong time.
As I've said before, I'd also be thrilld in Shizuka won, again if it she deserves it, so I'd be happy either way. Though I must say I'd also be sad for Irina having to deal with a repeat of SLC.
As for Sasha, I'd like to see her win the bronze--huge IF she deserves it. That girl has a heck of a lot of work to do between now and Nats and Olys.
Then we have the possible X factor: If the ISU and IOC make an exception to the age rule, allowing Asada to skate, and if she wins or medals, well, that's a whole other thread.
Remember, iceburgs are out there.
Rgirl
Unless Shizuka stops underrotating her triple flip in the SP she's not winning anything. It is the main reason why she finished 3rd in two GP's and most likely won't be going to the final.
I think there maybe a few skaters who have the skate of their lives could beat Irina in the LP. The problem is overcoming the SP lead she'll most likely have. You don't just have to beat Irina you've got to do it by 6 or 7 pts. In order for there to be a competition Irina has got to mess up a little in the SP. If she gets a 70 they might has well give her the gold medal right then. With the point getting LP Irina has got she'd have to mess up big time to lose.
I think there maybe a few skaters who have the skate of their lives could beat Irina in the LP. The problem is overcoming the SP lead she'll most likely have. You don't just have to beat Irina you've got to do it by 6 or 7 pts. In order for there to be a competition Irina has got to mess up a little in the SP. If she gets a 70 they might has well give her the gold medal right then. With the point getting LP Irina has got she'd have to mess up big time to lose.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
Has the Technical Assistant actually called her triple flip underrotated which was then downgraded to a double and got deductions for overrotating the double? If it were not then it is something that the Tech Asst is not doing and why not?LBC said:
This is more important than Shiz's problem.
If posters are continually seeing underrotations that are not called by the Tech Asst., they should mention who the Caller was so other posters know that that Caller has favorites. This is more important than any skater's underrotations.
fans want the whole story.
Joe
nymkfan51 said:So Rgirl ... are you counting Michelle out?
Looks like a lot of people are. Not sure if its because she has not skated this season or if they are looking at least season as an indicator. I hope she comes out with fire and makes some noise.
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Joesitz said:
This is from the protocols Joe. She got downgraded in her SP at BOTH CoC and TEB to a 2 flip then deductions for overrotating a double. She got a whopping .70 for her flip at TEB. This has happened 2 times with 2 different callers. I've got to think it is a definite problem.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
Thanks LBC - Underrotated jumps are a double whammy and I can see Shiz's scores plummeting because of them. It's apparent that there is need for some doctoring for her flip. Unfortunately, TT is not a jump expert (vis a vis Sasha).LBC said:
If Shiz is doing them in the LP then she should study why in one and not the other. Is she inconsistent or isn't she?
Joe
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2003
Joesitz said:
Ditto LBC - based on the score sheets. Shiz has had this problem (attempted tripples not fully rotated) and also has had some occassions of just doing a double where a tripple is planned. (I believe that was the case with the called 2Z in her LP at TEB, but I'd have to watch the tape again to verify that it was not an attempted tripple that was downgraded - maybe it's fresher in someone else's mind).
I'm not sure how closely these problems are related (under rotation on attempt v. intentional double where tripple is planned) but I suspect they might be. Shiz's programs have really grown on me this year, and I hope whatever the problem is she can fix it, make the Oly team and have the skate of her life!
DG
More Thoughts
O.k. everyone made valid points. NYMKFAN51, I agree that Irina will really have to have a mediocre skate to lose the OGM. More than one minor mistake. But it is not impossible for her to have a mediocre skate because of burn out and the pressure. It happened at the last Olympics. I am not counting Michelle out-ever. If there is one person on the planet I want to win the OGM, it is Michelle. If anyone could pull it off she could. But she has so much ground to make up, in so short a time, I just don't think it's likely. Believe me, I really want someone to say "I told you so" if Michelle wins the OGM. I am just hoping for a really compelling, Michelle-like skate from her. If she were to win even a bronze medal, I would be thrilled. I think Shizuka has the best chance of beating Irina becuase of her technical content and ability to pull it together. I wish Sasha could pull it together, but it would take a near flawless skate and a mediocre one from Irina for that to happen. Personally, I don't think the type of program Michelle skates is valued as highly under CoP as it was under the 6.0 system. I also wonder at times if this was deliberately done to set up certain skaters. Under the 6.0 system the trump card was the presentation score. Not so anymore and I think it has ruined the sport.
O.k. everyone made valid points. NYMKFAN51, I agree that Irina will really have to have a mediocre skate to lose the OGM. More than one minor mistake. But it is not impossible for her to have a mediocre skate because of burn out and the pressure. It happened at the last Olympics. I am not counting Michelle out-ever. If there is one person on the planet I want to win the OGM, it is Michelle. If anyone could pull it off she could. But she has so much ground to make up, in so short a time, I just don't think it's likely. Believe me, I really want someone to say "I told you so" if Michelle wins the OGM. I am just hoping for a really compelling, Michelle-like skate from her. If she were to win even a bronze medal, I would be thrilled. I think Shizuka has the best chance of beating Irina becuase of her technical content and ability to pull it together. I wish Sasha could pull it together, but it would take a near flawless skate and a mediocre one from Irina for that to happen. Personally, I don't think the type of program Michelle skates is valued as highly under CoP as it was under the 6.0 system. I also wonder at times if this was deliberately done to set up certain skaters. Under the 6.0 system the trump card was the presentation score. Not so anymore and I think it has ruined the sport.
:agree: :thumbsup:- Joined
- Mar 28, 2005
I am so happy to see Shizuka skating better again. However she has to seriously look at why she is underrotating her triple flip in the short program, she lost atleast 1 placement in her last 2 events from that and it is silly. Would also like to see her add the 3/3s she used to, and skate with a little more fire. She is definitely back on track though and the reason she is not going to the GP final is the potentialy very unlucky and too chancey format had her skating in much tougher fields, and Sokolova, Csizny, and Rochette pick up cheapish points skating in weaker fields that were poorly skated. Csizny and Rochette are skating very well to their credit, but they would not have beaten Arakawa at either of her events. Sokolova is the biggest joke of all in the final, she has done nothing in her competitions this year to earn a spot there, but she was able to eke out a win at the incredably depleted Skate America event and gets her spot.
Miki's combo was downgraded once more
Someone help me here!
I watched Miki Ando's programs (both SP ans LP) on video and was very happy that she flawlessly succeeded in her 3lutz-3loop combo in both programs. Well so it seemed to my eyes. She often underrotated it last year and was rightfully penalized for that. We know how strict CoP is towards underrotated jumps, a triple is counted as a double AND the judges give harsh negative grades. Now looking at the competition sheets her combo was downgraded to a 3-2 on both occasions. I don't have slow motion on my video reader, so it's hard to stop the film just when the landing foot touches the ice but anyway ... in her SP there is a slight underrotation of maybe 1/4 turn, but rather less than more, but I can't get to see one is the LP.
So ... are the technical controllers getting the habit of downgrading a skater's efforts just because they used to underrotate in the past and have that flaw labelled on their foreheads. I am really wondering.
Someone help me here!
I watched Miki Ando's programs (both SP ans LP) on video and was very happy that she flawlessly succeeded in her 3lutz-3loop combo in both programs. Well so it seemed to my eyes. She often underrotated it last year and was rightfully penalized for that. We know how strict CoP is towards underrotated jumps, a triple is counted as a double AND the judges give harsh negative grades. Now looking at the competition sheets her combo was downgraded to a 3-2 on both occasions. I don't have slow motion on my video reader, so it's hard to stop the film just when the landing foot touches the ice but anyway ... in her SP there is a slight underrotation of maybe 1/4 turn, but rather less than more, but I can't get to see one is the LP.
So ... are the technical controllers getting the habit of downgrading a skater's efforts just because they used to underrotate in the past and have that flaw labelled on their foreheads. I am really wondering.
- Joined
- Mar 28, 2005
alain707 said:
Unfortunately I think you are on to something there. Arakawa and Ando are well known for cheating their jumps, in fact the Japanese in general are(Suguri, Onda, and Nakano all do as well), but imparticular those two. The judges are more likely to be stingier in determing a cheated jump with those two than some others I believe, because they subconsciously are looking for it more.
slutskayafan21 said:
Yes so many unconscious things seem to hinder the judges from objective judging (I am checking myself from writing LOL - oh I did it anyway). And it is even more so with CoP. It's unfortunate and sad. Very sad. CoP amplifies the differences between the skaters, in number of points, in a way that makes upsets almost impossible. I am completely at a loss to understand how Slutskaya's components marks are in the high 7 and 8 whereas Onda's are not even in the 6 range. That settles the match. Slutskaya can do 2 triple jumps and Onda 7, she will win. In the 6.0 system where misses ans falls where really taken into account, a judge would not have dared to put someone forward who did noticeable mistakes. This is just an example. I like Irina Slutskaya, actually I liked her more when she hadn't become the judges' protegee but I can't figure out how her components score can be so high now when only a few years back she was considered a technical skater who couldn't match the best on the second mark. Certainly she has improved, but hey we have the same skater, and she is not a beginner, nor was she 4 years ago. Once again this is nothing against Slutskaya but rather the way judging is done.
- Joined
- Sep 16, 2005
Rgirl said:
Nope. No iceberg is strong enough to topple Irina from her top spot in the Olympics. Even if Shizuka, Cohen, or an injured Kwan actually skates better than she does. Mark my words. The olympics is a done deal.
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- Mar 28, 2005
alain707 said:
A skater like Onda already have a reputation for being an unpolished skater who is only about jumps and power, it is hard for her to knock that no matter how hard she tries. Slutskaya may have that reputation with some fans, but even as a youngster she had reasonable presentation scores, althought obviously better now, but I remember even the 96 World she managed 5.7s and 5.8s for presentation(relative to all 5.7s with one 5.8 technicaly)with a fall skating first in the last group. Like you said it is all about perceptions.
- Joined
- Mar 28, 2005
In defence of Irina(and yes I am an Irina fan but I am trying to be fair) I will say I have not seen anybody skate well enough to have a chance of actually beating Irina, since Arakawa at the 2004 Worlds or Michelle Kwan at the 2004 U.S nationals, if she skates as she has since Worlds last year. Even with fair judging the other top woman would have to take a big step up from where they all are now, if Irina maintains the same form, to have a chance. I also doubt personally an injured Kwan will reach that level but we will see, she has proven me and others wrong before, but this time it seems more doubtful. Can somebody name me any woman who has skated well enough at any particular event to beat Irina from her last 3 competitions(going back to Worlds last year) in the last 2 seasons(2004-05 season and 2005-06)? If there is I havent seen her at that competition or we have a difference of opinion.
I agree the scoring should be such if she makes a mistake, and one of her chief competitors performs flawlessly and inspired enough, she should be in serious danger, and isnt right now. I think it is similar to Plushenko and his situation in the mens. One gets the impression even if somebody skates well enough to beat them, either would need a disaester to lose the gold.
I agree the scoring should be such if she makes a mistake, and one of her chief competitors performs flawlessly and inspired enough, she should be in serious danger, and isnt right now. I think it is similar to Plushenko and his situation in the mens. One gets the impression even if somebody skates well enough to beat them, either would need a disaester to lose the gold.
The last time Irina skated at Torino was Euros 2005, and her FS performance there could be easily beaten by Cohen, Arakawa and/or Kwan. Poykio and Liashenko simply didn't have the goods to take advantage of that situation last year.
So I suppose nothing is written in stone, but Irina would truly have to have a disaster of a skate such as that one to loosen her tight grip on the OGM.
So I suppose nothing is written in stone, but Irina would truly have to have a disaster of a skate such as that one to loosen her tight grip on the OGM.
- Joined
- Nov 2, 2005
Irina scores inflated? what are you talking about.
I think Irina's PCscores are not inflated at all except for maybe interpetation. If you think about it. The pc scores kind of reflect the technical scores. If you have and average of +1's across the board you get low eights and high sevens. If you have an average 0's you get low sevens. If you have an average of -1 you get sixes
I think Irina's PCscores are not inflated at all except for maybe interpetation. If you think about it. The pc scores kind of reflect the technical scores. If you have and average of +1's across the board you get low eights and high sevens. If you have an average 0's you get low sevens. If you have an average of -1 you get sixes
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