Ladies - Qualifying A - Comments

[Kwanford Wife]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/dd/250px-Volcano_q.jpg

That's just because us Kwanies are temporarily stunned. But don't worry, we'll be back for the SP.

Mathman, darling:



but detroiters, even former detroiters, don't get stunned ~ we get pi&&ed!

KW

 

[tannisming]

I just joined this forum. For a second I thought it was a Michelle forum. Are there any Japanese fans here? I love the Japanese skaters and am rooting for Miki Ando to really do well. I expect Irena to win Worlds since it is in Russia. That's ok, she is a great skater. I can hardly wait until the Olympics. Who will the U.S. send?

 

[lotusland]

I am sure Kwan can close the point spread on first place IF she skates a clean short program and the short program is CoP friendly, as many here have said it is.

The problem comes to the front again when she has to skate the Bolero long program. Unfortunately for Kwan, Bolero is not technically as challenging as some others, and more impotantly it does not rack up the necessary points on the PCS side. There is nothing in the program to reward Michelle for. As the program stands today (don't want to get into the discussion of is it Dean's poor work or did Michelle strip it bare), it is a poor piece of choreography, empty of critical transitions, does not highlight what she can do and therefore makes it apparent she isn't doing anything. Unless she (and someone) do some last minute embellishing to Bolero ... she is back in 7th place again ... everything else being equal and the rest of the competitive field doesn't self-destruct.

On a side note: I can't feel too sorry for the multi-time World Champion. She was as aware as anyone that CoP was the order of the day. My good grief she trains right beside Jeff Buttle. They share the same coach. Michelle had opportunities to test drive her programs on international judges who might not necessarily be Kwanamaniacs. The sad thing here is she ignored the opportunity when it came calling ... and now she is struggling counting the revolutions in her spins hwell:

 

[Doggygirl]

Hi Kwanford.....

Alright CoP experts... Please help me understand what is going on with the QR scores...

This morning I read that Michelle was like 20 points behind Irina. Now she's 5, but sitting in 7th place overall. I assume this is based on the QR counting for 1/4th of the total score. Is this correct?

Last year, under 6.0 & QR counting for a lot more, she was in 6th place (I think) going into the SP & only moved up to 5th because of the timing issue and finished 3rd.

If the above is true, what are her realistic chances of finishing on the podium? Have the judges been marking similiar scores for the LP & QR? Is she penalized more for doubling jumps vs. falling on a jump? (the one thing I hate the most about CoP) With the scores relativly close what needs to happen?

I know this is rambled but I'm so confused & cannot get a straight answer anywhere because on the other sites its all: "The Kween is Dead, Long Live the Queen" and "That's ok, we'll just eat chicken & she'll win the whole thing!"

I don't have that kind of patience to sort through all the propaganda right now. I just want to understand what's going on.

Thanks,

Kwanford Wife

Yikes. This is the second time I'm trying this - using a laptop keyboard that I'm not used to. LOL, it has an "auot delete" button somewhere that I'm not used to!

25% of the QR score is carried forward to the rest of the comp. So yes, there was approx. a 20 point spread between Irina's score and MK's score in total. Once you take 25% of that, Irina ends up with roughly a 5 point lead over MK.

I'm not sure how to compare MK's 7th place rank under CoP with a 6th place rank under 6.0, so I'll leave that for someone else to figure out! The rank doesn't matter as much as the points, IMO. While there is roughly 5 points between MK and Irina, there are roughly 2.5 points between MK and Miki who is in 3rd. So for medal contention, that's the gap. And obviously things are really close between 3rd and 7th.

LOTS can happen that affect 2.5 points if this season is any indication. A missed element or a fall could easily make up that difference.

At this stage in the season, I have theory that it's a LOT easier for a skater to lose points (through mistakes) than to gain points through any sort of last minute maneuvers. As an example, I have no idea if MK's non-jump elements had mistakes in them, which may have caused them to be level 1 instead of level 2 or 3. But assuming those elements at least were give tech levels per plan, I can't imagine trying to "tweak" the program over the next 2 days to change any of that.

I don't know. I sort of think MK made some strategic decisions this year that may have left her with a LP of lower base value per her plan than several other ladies. I hope she proves me wrong!!

DG

 

[Doggygirl]

Hey Mathman!! What's Up????

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/dd/250px-Volcano_q.jpg

That's just because us Kwanies are temporarily stunned. But don't worry, we'll be back for the SP.

That's the second time in a week you've set out to ruin a potential posting record!!! WHAT's UP WITH THAT???? I was seriously considering becoming a Kwaniac, but now you convinced me not to. So that's all your fault. And MK might possibly miss a gold medal because she needed just one more Kwaniac in her camp. And that will be your fault too. So you heard it here first....if MK doesn't come home with Gold, it is ALL Mathman's fault!!!

How's that for some die hard fan logic?

DG

 

[Kwanford Wife]

Yikes. This is the second time I'm trying this - using a laptop keyboard that I'm not used to. LOL, it has an "auot delete" button somewhere that I'm not used to!


I don't know. I sort of think MK made some strategic decisions this year that may have left her with a LP of lower base value per her plan than several other ladies. I hope she proves me wrong!!

DG

Awww... thanks so much for the retyping effort. That's why I love it here! To be totally honest & risk explusion from the UBERSQUAD, I am totally agreeing with your point about her strategic decisions... I know she won't finish 7th ~ mainly because she is the Kween with the best record EVER! (hey, it takes more than a bad skate un-uber me! ) but MAN!!! Talk about a terrible way to start off a terrible day.... Thank God for the 14% spread...

I'm off to eat chicken now... But I will NEVER eat crow! So there!

Kwanford Wife

 

[jeff goldblum]

According to the report recently posted on the USFS site, Michelle only landed three triples, and in addition to the two doubles, she "badly two-footed her triple toe." If Michelle had planned a 3 Flip-2 Toe-2 Loop and a solo 3 Salchow, she automatically lost 9.8 points from her base value alone. A two-footed triple toe is going to subtract probably around another 2 points. Although there's no way to know, you could also guess Michelle may have garnered 1 or 2 points in the GOE for the two jumps she doubled, if they had been completed as planned. Add to all this the possible trouble with the spin, and skated cleanly, her program may have been awarded 15 additional points or more. I know all of this is a moot point because she did not execute it this way and no one knows if she will, but I wanted to point out what this program is capable of in terms of scores, which might be in the 115-120 range.

From the inception of the new judging system I thought it was clear that competitions could be won in the short program. If a skater builds up enough of a lead there, she could create a gap to wide to be bridged by the other skaters. Unfortunately, Michelle is already going in with a defecit, so she'd need to beat Irina in the short by 4.78 points just to bring the scores even, and then score maybe another 5 points over to give herself a comfortable lead. I don't see that happening, but if she does two perfect programs in the short and long she could make the podium. As much as everyone is saying 4.78 points is not that much, it's still going to be an uphill battle.

 

[Mathman]

ITA with that post, Jeff G. -- and welcome to the forum. As I just posted on the other thread, Michelle is mired down in 7th place not because her program isn't CoP-friendly, but because she delivered an utterly atrocious performance.

MM

 

[millie]

ITA with that post, Jeff G. -- and welcome to the forum. As I just posted on the other thread, Michelle is mired down in 7th place not because her program isn't CoP-friendly, but because she delivered an utterly atrocious performance.

MM

Now, Now, Mathman, are you saying naughty things about your Kween. :

 

[Mathman]

I just joined this forum. For a second I thought it was a Michelle forum. Are there any Japanese fans here? I love the Japanese skaters and am rooting for Miki Ando to really do well. I expect Irena to win Worlds since it is in Russia. That's ok, she is a great skater. I can hardly wait until the Olympics. Who will the U.S. send?

Welcome to Golden Skate, Tannisming. Thanks for posting, and I hope you like it here.

I think the reason it seems like Michelle Kwan is the only skater we want to discuss today is because everyone is so surprised at her result in the qualifying round. Miki Ando and Fumie Suguri are in the top flight -- no surprise there! Yes, the Japanese skaters have lots of fans on this board, including Arakawa, Onda and Mao Asada

Mathman

 

[Doggygirl]

Yeah Yeah Yeah...

ITA with that post, Jeff G. -- and welcome to the forum. As I just posted on the other thread, Michelle is mired down in 7th place not because her program isn't CoP-friendly, but because she delivered an utterly atrocious performance.

MM

But some of us analytical (or should I say analysis paralysis) types still need SOMETHING to talk about. Do we have your permission to carry on, regardless of the SIMPLE truth that MK had a craptacular skate????

DG

 

[WOW!]

Michelle we know you rock. Skate to spartacus with your heart. We believe.
A song that describes Michelle is... Hero by Mariah Carey.

 

[ChiSk8Fan]

hmmm

What is probably bothering Michelle Kwan right now, other than a poor performance, is that this first "test" of the CoP wasn't truly a test for her at all. If she had skated her very best and been given these marks, then I can see where talk of her being a has-been would come up. But face it, she didn't skate well, didn't jump well, didn't spin well and ended up crumbling mentally and watering stuff down just to get it done. It was not a test of the CoP, it was a test of her competitive shape, which is not at its best right now. She simply hasn't competed enough to be mentally tough 100% of the time right now.

But, look at her PCS for a very poor performance and skate. Her marks are 3rd in her group, just fractions behind Fumie, and several points down from Slutskaya. She is actually ahead of Arakawa in several components. I would say that with a good skate with good energy and excitement, she will score as highly as Sasha would in the PCS.

Her technical elements, as planned, weren't bad. Her spiral being a Level 1, and her spins being Level 1 is simply a disaster at this level of competition. The rules are clear as to how to upgrade the elements to Level 2 and beyond, so if she is training enough to learn the elements, she needs to compete them.

All is not lost for Michelle Kwan. A terrible CoP debut still has her within points of the podium, with the SP to come (her strength would be the SP), she can try to hang in there for a medal, but I suspect 5th place is probably where she will stay.

Michelle needs to grow under the CoP, not hang onto her current skating, to have any chance of Gold in Turino.

 

[tannisming]

Ty Mathman. Oh I'm glad there are some Japanese fans here. I am really interested in watching Asada's career and also Kimmie. It will be fun to see these young great skaters progress. I don't think Michelle can make up the loss of points without two perfect programs and I really don't think Bolero/Spart qualify but that's not to say it couldn't happen.

 

[Hikaru]

Welcome to Golden Skate, Tannisming. Thanks for posting, and I hope you like it here.

I think the reason it seems like Michelle Kwan is the only skater we want to discuss today is because everyone is so surprised at her result in the qualifying round. Miki Ando and Fumie Suguri are in the top flight -- no surprise there! Yes, the Japanese skaters have lots of fans on this board, including Arakawa, Onda and Mao Asada

Mathman

yeah, we have the Asada Assasins (brought to you by MM **wink wink**) crowd here!! woohooo!! LOL just kidding! No really, we love the japanes skaters here.

SPEAKING of them, and to talk about something else, why do you think Miki went back to the Firebird?
a) She felt more comfortable with it?
b) Her previous FS wasn't well received (although I loved it)?

Do you think she changed it because the program worked better, maybe to ensure the three spots for the J-girls in Torino??

 

[jeff goldblum]

Perfect. I didn't know if anybody had discussed this whole spiral sequence issue yet. Now since I obviously haven't seen the skate, I can't know for sure, but I've gotten the impression that she did only two spiral positions. It seems as though she did not do her Nicole Bobek/Sasha Cohen spiral. Is that correct? If so I can see the spiral sequence being graded as a level 1. If she skated it just like at nationals it would definitely be higher. The thing I am confused about is that a lot of people are mentioning something about not holding the positions long enough, thus the lower value. However, in none of the documents concerning the new judging system does it say that length of time for which spirals are held, makes a difference in the level of difficulty. According to everything I've read, that only affects the GOE. Was there some document released more recently that said something about length of holding affecting level of difficulty? I do remember a release last year that said spin postions had to be held for a minimum of 2 rotations in order to be counted. Under the GOE explanation the only thing it says about time regarding spirals is that in a change of edge spiral, the spiral must be held for 3 seconds after the change. What's the deal?

 

[yelyoh]

I agree with what several others have said. Last year MK she did a so so job in the Q round after not having competed much all season. Once again this season she does not compete so she is not all that competition ready AND has to deal with COP. It will be interesting to see how she comes back in the SP. Yes her PCS score are not that bad considering the weak skate she had. But can she find that fire to put herself up this next round. I think she can. Of course then, as I said in an earlier post, she has to skate Bolero Two. How in the world she could only manage a level 1 on her spiral sequence is bewildering. I'm hoping it's just nerves. I think she can land on the podium but I would not be shocked if she did not. I would feel very sad and wonder if this will make her hang up her skates. That is what concerns me.

The syntax of this post stinks but my mind is numb.

 

[Hikaru]

hey jeff!

Perfect. I didn't know if anybody had discussed this whole spiral sequence issue yet. Now since I obviously haven't seen the skate, I can't know for sure, but I've gotten the impression that she did only two spiral positions. It seems as though she did not do her Nicole Bobek/Sasha Cohen spiral. Is that correct? If so I can see the spiral sequence being graded as a level 1. If she skated it just like at nationals it would definitely be higher. The thing I am confused about is that a lot of people are mentioning something about not holding the positions long enough, thus the lower value. However, in none of the documents concerning the new judging system does it say that length of time for which spirals are held, makes a difference in the level of difficulty. According to everything I've read, that only affects the GOE. Was there some document released more recently that said something about length of holding affecting level of difficulty? I do remember a release last year that said spin postions had to be held for a minimum of 2 rotations in order to be counted. Under the GOE explanation the only thing it says about time regarding spirals is that in a change of edge spiral, the spiral must be held for 3 seconds after the change. What's the deal?

http://www.isu.org/vsite/vfile/page/fileurl/0,11040,4844-152074-169290-64127-0-file,00.pdf

that is the document that refers to the level of spins, spiral and step sequence for singles. In the second page they explain that a spiral step sequence can have a simple variation or a difficult variation (they set examples for both). AFter that they show what would make a spiral step sequence a level 1,2 or 3.

 

[jeff goldblum]

Thank you. I've read that document at least 20 times in the past. My question is, why are people saying Michelle's spiral was possibly graded a level one due to failure to meet some kind of length of time requirement for the holding of positions, when nowhere does it state that that has any part in determining the overall value?

 

[Mathman]

OK, I just saw the excerpts from the ladies qualifying on CBC. I feel a lot better now. Michelle is fine. She looked great, nice and smooth, better than any of the others except Slutskaya. I predict silver for Michelle.

Also, Arakawa looked fantastic. New hair style, new costume, very mature and beautiful.

Mathman