Ladies Short

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I doubt Irina will melt under pressure this time. The determination is so strong.

Sasha and Shiz (without Mao) are pretty much the podium gals with Irina. But hey it's not written in stone.

Mao will be going to Calgary and if any of the prima donnas want a Worlds gold they will have big big big competion from this little tyke.

Joe

 

[Doggygirl]

I diddn't say Sasha's PCS should be the same as Irina at COC, did I? Don't you think you always got too way ahead of interpretation my posts?

But I'm sure thinking she could use the same degree of 'inflation' on PCS scores as Judges usually do. Even that would not bring her up to the PCS score that Irina got at COC, but with a bigger margine than what she got over with Mao, that IMO would be justifiable.

I read the same pbp you read at FSU, I also read one detailed report from a person in arena.

My apologies if I offended you. I may have misinterpreted this portion of your original post.

"It is very clear that Judges are not willing to hand over Arakawa and Cohen the big PCS scores they are willing to hand over to the other top cat."

I made the assumption that "the other top cat" must be Irina, and it looks from your response that I got that part right. I didn't realize that you were talking about "degrees of inflation" which you mention in your post above.

I'm clueless. How do "degrees of inflation" work, and how does one qualify for a particular "degree of inflation?"

DG

 

[Saundy]

I don't quite understand why Mao can't go to the Olympics because of her age? Wasn't Tara Lipinski also 15 when she went? The only difference I can figure is that Tara's birthday is in June and Mao's is in September. Someone please explain, I'm confused...:scratch:

 

[Doggygirl]

I don't quite understand why Mao can't go to the Olympics because of her age? Wasn't Tara Lipinski also 15 when she went? The only difference I can figure is that Tara's birthday is in June and Mao's is in September. Someone please explain, I'm confused...:scratch:

I think Mao is under the age requirement by 3 months. But I also think the age requirement changed since Tara's time.

Here is my own age question. Are the age requirements and deadlines the same for World's and Oly's? Or different? I'm assuming the IOC may have their own age requirements (Oly's), and I'm not sure they are the same as the ISU requirements that would impact World's. I'm wondering if Mao can compete at 2006 World's. I would assume if she's old enough for the GP, she would also be old enough for World's, but I'm not sure.

Thanks!
DG

 

[Mathman]

Something else just occurred to me, also. I think the Cop will do more to confuse the general public at the OLYs. The casual fan, seeing the system in use for the first (or second) time will NOT know what a "good" score is. At least under 6.0 EVERYONE know that a 6.0 meant perfection. But if Irina should get 70 points in the SP, the average fan WON'T know to cry foul.

On the other hand, I think the the TV folks are doing a pretty good job at educating the fans. They post personal bests for each skater, and they also say things like "this skater needs a total of 98.4 points to overtake so-and-so for the lead."

They also (especially Paul Wylie ) give good details along the lines of, he just lost 13.0 points for falling on his triple-Axel combo, or, that extra change of position on her layback gives her a level three instead of a level two.

About the possibiliy of someone getting way ahead after the SP, that's true in any sport. Three things can happen next.

(A) "Nothing much," everyone putzes around in the long and the lead holds up by default.

(B) The underdog mounts a furious challenge and nips the frontrunner at the wire in an exciting nailbiter.

(C) The champion lays down an equally glorious long program and, laden with flowers and teddy bears, is carried off the field of battle on the shoulders of her adoring fans.

It's all good, LOL!

MM

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

They also (especially Paul Wylie ) give good details along the lines of, he just lost 13.0 points for falling on his triple-Axel combo, or, that extra change of position on her layback gives her a level three instead of a level two.MM

I'm in the dark on this. Help! If a skater falls, there is no score at all. no credit for the attempt. no credit for the air turns. It is much more than just a -1 deduction. Am I correct?

Joe

 

[Doggygirl]

I'm in the dark on this. Help! If a skater falls, there is no score at all. no credit for the attempt. no credit for the air turns. It is much more than just a -1 deduction. Am I correct?

Joe

NO!!! The base value for the jump as the caller sees it remains the base value. i.e. today, Sasha fell on a 3S. She gets base value credit for attempting the 3S (base value = 5.0 which includes the 10% up-tick for coming after the 2 minute mark). So the end value for the jump = 5.0 - 3.0GOE - 1 Fall Deduction = 1 point net positve credit for this jump. (it shows as 2 points for that line item on the score sheet, but the fall deduction was for that jump, so I included that in my total.)

And before anyone jumps in to say "this is way too complicated!!!" I have NOT studied NJS (COP) for pairs or dance. I could not answer this same type of question for pairs or dance. But I still WAY enjoy watching those diciplines too as a "casual fan."

COP is not hard to figure out if you invest just a small amount of time into it.

DG

 

[Mathman]

I think Mao is under the age requirement by 3 months. But I also think the age requirement changed since Tara's time.

Here is my own age question. Are the age requirements and deadlines the same for World's and Oly's? Or different? I'm assuming the IOC may have their own age requirements (Oly's), and I'm not sure they are the same as the ISU requirements that would impact World's. I'm wondering if Mao can compete at 2006 World's. I would assume if she's old enough for the GP, she would also be old enough for World's, but I'm not sure.

To be eligible for the Olympics and "ISU Championships" you have to be 15 by July 1. ISU Championships are Worlds, Europeans and Four Continents.

To be eligible for "ISU Senior Competitions," including the Grand Prix Series and the Grand Prix Final you have to be 14 by July 1.

So Kimmie (15 in October of 2004) was not eligible for Worlds last year, even though she won the bronze at U.S. Nationals. But she can go to the Olympics now. Mao (15 in September of 2005) can't go to Worlds or Four Continents, but she can do the Grand Prix.

IIRC this rule was put in especially on account of Tara -- the ISU was alarmed at the prospect of ever-younger jumping beans coming in to dominate the sport at the expense of mature artistry. Ironically, Tara would have been eligible for the Olympics under the new rule, but not for the preceding Worlds.

Before that, I don't think there was any age limit at all.

Here are the rules (pages 5 and 11).

http://www.isu.org/vsite/vfile/page/fileurl/0,11040,4844-153890-171106-67102-0-file,00.pdf

MM

 

[Doggygirl]

To be eligible for the Olympics and "ISU Championships" you have to be 15 by July 1. ISU Championships are Worlds, Europeans and Four Continents.

To be eligible for "ISU Senior Competitions," including the Grand Prix Series and the Grand Prix

Thanks MM. Is it just me, or does it seem rather silly to have a different age requirement for the Senior GP Series and World's/Euros/4CC?

Wonder if Mao will (or even can) enter Jr. World's 2006?

DG

 

[Mathman]

COP is not hard to figure out if you invest just a small amount of time into it.

Not only that, but the more you study it the more respect you have for the various individuals, ISU committees, and national federations that worked it all out. It's actually pretty cool.

 

[Mathman]

Thanks MM. Is it just me, or does it seem rather silly to have a different age requirement for the Senior GP Series and World's/Euros/4CC?

It seems OK to me, given that they want an age limit at all. A prodigy like Mao can -- well, do what she's doing, getting her feet wet in international competition, measuring herself against the big girls, and still conform to the principle of shielding both the young skaters and their older competitors from "too much, too soon."

I believe the ISU also hoped by these rules to slow down the injury rate for very young skaters who want to try too many triple Axels at too young an age. (In Mao's case, it didn't work out that way, LOL.) Maybe Tara would have had a longer career if she had been held back in juniors for another year.

IIRC, in the first version of the new age rule they had a loop hole in the case of a small country whose national champion was under the age limit and they really did not have anyone else to send. Now that exemption has been eliminated, I think.

BTW, it is interesting to me that in all their official declarations the ISU tries to elevate Four Continents to an important status, like Europeans. This despite the fact the the top North American skaters never go. I will be curious to see whether, over the years, the ISU will prevail. If you say that something is important often enough and loudly enough, sometimes it comes true.

MM

 

[Rgirl]

This is definitely not like Sasha in Paris. Who honestly didn't think this was a sure thing for Sasha? Well, it's not over yet but Sasha's LP by past performances have not been perfect (except that legendary skate in Dortmund QR). She's a good skater. She can do it.

How well Mao's LP goes is anyone's guess. She's hot right now and the judges aren't worried about immaturity. I wish people would explain what they mean by 'pressure'. Pressure is a two way street. It can bring one up and it can bring one down. Little girls don't have pressure. That's a given......

I agree with a lot of the part of your post on which I wanted to comment. Honestly, cross my heart and hope to die, I did not think TEB would be a sure thing for Sasha. (A) She's coming off an injury; (B) Over the past few seasons, Sasha has done consistently well in terms of either medaling or coming in 4th (twice at Worlds, plus '02 Olys) at her events, except the meltdown at the '03 Cheesefest that seemed to be a factor in her leaving Tarasova. But, she still falls, two-foots, or makes other mistakes within her programs. It may only be one or two very slight mistakes or it may be a fall. But, correct me if I'm wrong, I don't think she has yet to put together a clean short and a clean long in an event. OTOH, the fat lady ain't sung yet.

But ITA with your comment: "Pressure is a two way street. It can bring one up and it can bring one down." True, true, true, true, true. How pressure affects different athletes' performances has been much studied in sports science and your comment sums up what all the studies on pressure support. The same pressure can lift one athlete to her "zone" whereas it can take down another athlete to a meltdown.

Don't agree that "little girls," if you mean 15-year-old ladies figure skaters, "don't have pressure is a given." I think it depends on the expectations for the athlete and again, how each person handles pressure.

Originally Posted by Doggygirl
COP is not hard to figure out if you invest just a small amount of time into it.

Not only that, but the more you study it the more respect you have for the various individuals, ISU committees, and national federations that worked it all out. It's actually pretty cool.

ITA with both Doggygirl and Mathman. The COP certainly has its problems and is a work in progress, but IMHO, it is vastly superior to the 6.0 system both in terms of getting the best skaters the most appropriate medal 99% (not literally, but figuratively) of the time--so far. Even if you come to the conclusion that the OBO system was better, I still agree with Mathman that "the more you study it the more respect you have for the various individuals, ISU committees, and national federations that worked it all out."


As for me, congratulations to Mao Asada, who is two for two in clean, exceptionally well-executed SPs and here being first after the short, this time over a former World champ and a two time and the current World silver medalist. Although I'm still not crazy about her "Carmen" SP, now that I've seen it a few times and being ready for it, I can concentrate on the skating and forget about the context.

I loved Shizza's LP at COC and the more I see it, or perhaps the more she skates it, the more impressed I am at how she is skating to Chopin's Concerto #1. It's a difficult piece to skate to, but between Tarasova's choreography and Shizza's musicality and overall approach to the program, I think it's the strongest LP I've seen thus far. I love it!

If Sasha fell because of loss of training time due to the hip injury, then she is in one of the "downs" she talked about when, in response to Peter Carruthers "message to Michelle" dink question, Sasha replied, "We'll all have our ups and downs..." However, if it's another concentration lapse, Sasha simply has got to solve this problem or she will never win World or Olympic gold. I'll be curious to see how she holds up in the LP, especially with her jumps.

Again, way to go Mao!

Rgirl

PS to Lanie re Sasha at Jr. Worlds: The age rules were different then, so Sasha was also skating for the chance to go to Sr. Worlds based on her 2nd place finish at Nationals. She had to medal at Jr. Worlds in order to go to Sr. Worlds. I don't remember her being sick, but can't disagree with you because I just don't know.

 

[gezando]

As I remember Sasha had the flu or something while at Jr Worlds.

IIRC,Cohen did not have the flu, but her team said coming off 2nd in US sr. nats, and was predicted as the one to win, therefore all the cameras were following her everywhere, and that lead to pressure.

Are you thinking about Michelle who had sinusitis in worlds 99, or Susan Ng who skated top 10 in US nats 1999 with a 103 fever!!!!

 

[nymkfan51]

Rgirl, the only completely clean LP I remember Sasha skating to was her Swan Lake at the '04 cheesefest in Providence. She may have also skated a clean LP in the QR at World's 04 in Dortmund.
Your statement is correct though ... she continues to make little mistakes here and there almost all the time ... at least in the big comps when the gold is on the line. Plus the falls.
I think she was pretty healthy and trained in Paris. Nicks commented on it before it started, and even Sasha admitted in her journal, I believe, that she just had a fall and had to stay away from jumping for a short time.

I don't know what the answer is. It's got to be totally frustrating though, if you're a big Sasha fan. The talent is there ... she just can't seem to do that one perfect performance at just the right moment.

 

[R.D.]

I think her time will come.