I think winning the junior world title is not so indicative of a skater's success as a senior, but doing well at the event is important. It shows that the skater can handle pressure at an early age, which is very important to getting far in one's career. But it's too early to judge Christina based on her SP. Let's see how she does in her LP.
Ladies SP
- Thread starter silverlake22
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Anna Ovcharova's FS score at Russian Junior nationals was 109.46 and Polina Agafonova's was 108.19. Granted, those are nationals scores, but Agnes' LP score at US nationals was 108.73 and Kanako's LP score at Japanese Junior nationals this year was 106.89 so I wouldn't say that Murakami definitely has it in the bag, though I do think she will win. She does flutz though while Anna and Polina A don't, and Polina A will attempt 3-3. The scoring potential for the top 9 in the FS is actually pretty comparable, though I have a hunch Joshi, Kate, and Kiri will likely get lower scores than the others just because they have less technical difficulty in their programs.
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- Nov 12, 2009
I agree, Christina's strength is the LP, it never has been the SP. She is also a late bloomer, she really was just a very mediocre skater until this season when she showed a lot of promise. She has also grown a lot since last year, which I think is also the reason for Polina Shelepen's recent struggles. I imagine it must be hard to compete and live up to all these high expectations when a lot of girls this age are growing and changing so fast. One year can make a difference, I mean remember what Mirai was like last year? Christina's scores on the junior circuit have been better than Mirai's scores on the senior circuit last year and now Mirai has just come off a 4th place finish at her first Olympics and is poised to medal at worlds.
I meant that they didn't mean anything in terms of results. I wouldn't bet against Murakami but I wouldn't bet on her either. Anyone betting on any Jr competition should be prepared for the worst. Jr competitors can often be all over the map in terms of results and often underperform. Since Anna Ovcharova, who is Murakami's most direct competition at this point, is in her first season of the JGP and has has tremendous improvement over this season alone, according to reports, then I think it wouold be unwise to discount her potential based on one stat from the ISU.
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- Nov 12, 2009
For what it's worth, Caroline Zhang was 10th after the SP at last years Junior Worlds with a score of 47.64 and then went on the win the FS and the silver medal. I agree that juniors can be unpredictable. Kanako usually wins because of PCS, but I was surprised to see the two Russians in 1st and 3rd have PCS so close to Kanako's. Anything can happen. Good luck to all the ladies tomorrow!
Yeah, look where the title got Caroline Zhang. A great run in juniors doesn't guarantee a great results in seniors.
I'm so excited to see Anna and Kanako top 2! I think Kanako will win, but it's nice to see Anna have her moment in the sun. I hope she can medal.
I expect Christina, Agnes & Polina S. all to move up in the LP, but I'm not sure if they will medal, as it is a deep field and the SP could cost them. 10pts out of the lead is a lot to make up when the technical level is similar. Given Kiri's history in the LP this year, I expect her to drop. Her last two LPs have been complete disasters and her jumps didn't seem to on here.
I do hope a US lady moves into the top 3 countries...they have the depth for 14 JGP slots compared to Canada or Sweden.
I expect Christina, Agnes & Polina S. all to move up in the LP, but I'm not sure if they will medal, as it is a deep field and the SP could cost them. 10pts out of the lead is a lot to make up when the technical level is similar. Given Kiri's history in the LP this year, I expect her to drop. Her last two LPs have been complete disasters and her jumps didn't seem to on here.
I do hope a US lady moves into the top 3 countries...they have the depth for 14 JGP slots compared to Canada or Sweden.
Do you not understand logic? A implies B does not mean B implies A.
Great skaters got Jr. world titles. (What I said)
Jr. world titles become great skaters. (What you think I said)
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- Jan 8, 2009
I get what you are trying to say. It always interesting to see how skaters can really step it up when they get into the senior ranks, or if they dominated juniors and really struggled in seniors.
I think the whole thing is pretty much impossible to predict : o
Right. It's like a great basketball player would most likely win titles at a collegiate level, but that doesn't mean all dominant college players become future NBA stars.
Tell that to Evan Lysacek or Shizuka Arakawa.
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Caroline won her Junior World Title as a teeny 13 year old though, before she went through her big growthspurt. Most of the medal favorites this year are older: Christina is 16, Agnes is turning 16 this summer, Kanako turned 15 in the fall, Kiri will be 15 in a few weeks, Polina turns 15 over the summer. Only Anna and Polina are still 13, and they turn 14 in March and April. I think a lot of Junior Worlds success and what it means for the skater's in seniors depends on if they win their junior medals before or after they've had their big growth spurts. In the case of the top 2 here, I don't know if Kanako and Anna will grow a lot more or not, they could, but they look pretty well proportioned now so they might not get much taller and just fill out a bit in which case they are less likely to disappear on the senior level then the girls who might grow 4 inches between now and when they move on to the senior level (what happened to Caroline).
SOME of the top skaters at some point or another won Junior Worlds. Others did not.
Of the senior world medalists in the past 20 years, the following were also junior world champions:
Yamaguchi, Sato, Bonaly, Kwan, Slutskaya, Ando, Asada, Kim
All the other top ladies of the post-figures era, including the other world and Olympic champions, at best achieved lesser medals, lesser junior results, or didn't compete at Junior Worlds at all.
It's a nice credential. It isn't a prerequisite to senior success or to "greatness."
Conventional wisdom is that you acquire and hopefully perfect techniques before your body goes through serious growth spurts. Under the new system, you need a diverse set of techniques (and various jumps). So, you will need to look at how diverse/eclectic one's repertoire is and how well and accurately each technique is executed with consistency. That is the way to measure a junior skater's potential, especially for girls.
Under the old regime, achievements at junior worlds meant a lot in terms of projecting one's potential at the senior level. Under the CoP, they probably do not mean as much. At the junior level, they can do well on TES -- well enough to win competitions -- with a decent, not great, repertoire of jumps without technical accuracies and aesthetic (great skaters jump with great artistry). PCS at the junior level says even less.
So, to evaluate a young lady under the new system, you will have to pay more attention to each of her techniques and artistic disposition rather than her scores.
I have a high opinion of some Russian girls, most notably Tuktamysheva (not junior yet, I guess), while I am not as high on, say, Murakami because I see some significant differences in their jump techniques although their current scores may suggest otherwise.
Under the old regime, achievements at junior worlds meant a lot in terms of projecting one's potential at the senior level. Under the CoP, they probably do not mean as much. At the junior level, they can do well on TES -- well enough to win competitions -- with a decent, not great, repertoire of jumps without technical accuracies and aesthetic (great skaters jump with great artistry). PCS at the junior level says even less.
So, to evaluate a young lady under the new system, you will have to pay more attention to each of her techniques and artistic disposition rather than her scores.
I have a high opinion of some Russian girls, most notably Tuktamysheva (not junior yet, I guess), while I am not as high on, say, Murakami because I see some significant differences in their jump techniques although their current scores may suggest otherwise.
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I totally agree with you,silverlake, on Caroline Zhang. My point is that you can never really predict who will do well in seniors by the results in juniors. It can be an indicator somewhat, but not totally reliable. There have been plenty of skaters who never medaled in juniors that found success in seniors. Many skaters can be late bloomers, ex., Jeremy Abbott, Arakawa, and Joannie Rochette to name a few.
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- Nov 12, 2009
Well said, ITA. Excited for tomorrow and hope the ladies skate their best!
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- Nov 12, 2009
That's what I think too. She's probably just naturally thin. The two Polina's appear to have teeth that are still growing in!
Again. There's always exception. But the odds for those exception is oddly SMALL. It's like saying you don't need a college education to become a billionaire. Well, but you have a MUCH better chance of becoming a billionaire with an education.
Shizuka was lucky because the top 2 faltered. If all were clean, no one would put Shizuka above the other two.
Lysacek is lucky because the political climate is in his favor. His PCS improved by more than 2 quads over the course of 1 month.
