Men's LP Results - SPOILER

[Mathman]

I wouldn't say he is the new king. He only beat oda's total by six points.

And when a 3 quad program is only 6 points ahead of a no-quad program, that's not really so great.

Still, if (BIG IF) Joubert can deliver that jump content every time, no one without a quad has a prayer of catching him, no matter how pretty their spins and presentation may be.

Here Oda's (intended) jump layout from Skate America:

3A+3T+2Lo 13.0
3Lo 5.0
3Lz+2T 7.3
3A 7.5
3S+2T 5.8
3F 5.5
3 Lz 6.0
2A 3.3

Total 51.4

Here's Joubert at Cup of Russia

4T+2T 10.3
4S 9.5
3A 7.5
4T 9.0
3Lo+2T 6.3
3F 5.5
3Lz 6.0
3S 4.5

Total 58.6

That's a lot of ground to make up.

Plus...Oda's program is completely maxed out. Without a quad, he cannot sqeeze any more points into his jump layout than he already has. He has already done two Axels and two Lutzes (his biggest jumps) and three combos. So he cannot even ungrade his 3Lz+2T to 3Lz+3T without a Zayak violation.

Joubert's program, on the other hand, has plenty of room for extra points if needed. He has not repeated any jump except the 4T, so he could do another Axel in combination or an extra Lutz in combination. He did not do a triple toe, so he could upgrade his opening combo to 4T/3T without a rule violation.

If a skater does not have a quad, his only hope is that the guys who do mess up. (This happens a lot, of course.)

Anyway, Joubert's performance was not only 6 points higher than Oda's all-time best, it was also 4 points higher than Lambiel's all-time best (with two quads), 16 points higher than Lysacek's all-time best, 19 points higher than Takahashi's all-time best,...

 

[zandor]

Joubert rocks!!! :chorus:

 

[enlight78]

If Oda had pulled off an energetic Long program with +1 Goe across the board he could have scored 240. A minimum clean skate from joubert yeilds an estimated 78 short + 160 long = 238. Even with the quads(if he doesn't chang his jump content) it is very possible of joubert to be edge out of the gold.

 

[Oscilla]

Joubert's program, on the other hand, has plenty of room for extra points if needed. He has not repeated any jump except the 4T, so he could do another Axel in combination or an extra Lutz in combination. He did not do a triple toe, so he could upgrade his opening combo to 4T/3T without a rule violation.

The problem with this is that Joubert combos have a tendency to be rather shaky. I've noticed him having problems with holding the exit edge after a fellow FSUer pointed this out to me. He also does not have as much speed out of the jump as the other contenders. I actually thought that putting a salchow in was a clever attempt to accumulate a lot of points withouth the necessity to try for difficult combos.
Kudos for him for landing 3 quads, though.

 

[Oscilla]

Just for fun I compared Joubert's and Oda's intended jump layout - including points for highlight distribution and GoEs.

Oda:

3A+3T+2Lo 14.8
3Lo 6.0
3Lz+2T 8.1
3A 9.3 x
3S+2T 7.18 x
3F 7.05 x
3 Lz 7.0 x
2A 3.63 x

Total: 63.06


Joubert at CoR:

4T+2T 11.3
4S 10.5
3A 8.5
4T 9.7 x
3Lo+2T 6.93 x
3F 6.85 x
3Lz 6.60 x
3S 4.35 x

Total: 64.73

 

[rjulie510]

Here's Joubert at Cup of Russia

4T+2T 10.3
4S 9.5
3A 7.5
4T 9.0
3Lo+2T 6.3
3F 5.5
3Lz 6.0
3S 4.5

Total 58.6

I assume he intends the opening jumps to be 4T+3T combination. He can also add third combination to add more points, preferably a 3-jump combination. Those will give him even more base points, and frankly that's A LOT of points to catch up. Lambiel has quad toe but very inconsistent triple axel, and Oda/Weir/Lysacek(also has problems with triple axel)/Buttle have A LOT of catching up to do if they want to beat Baboo since they don't have quads.

Joubert seems to be in great shape and very focused and motivated this season. So far this season, he's the one to beat.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

If Oda had pulled off an energetic Long program with +1 Goe across the board he could have scored 240. A minimum clean skate from joubert yeilds an estimated 78 short + 160 long = 238. Even with the quads(if he doesn't chang his jump content) it is very possible of joubert to be edge out of the gold.

ITA. With all his jump passes and with the 3A as the best of his jumps, he still loses steam in the LP. I don't care how many jump passes he makes after the midpoint, he should be able to do them with the same vigor as the few he does in the first part of the program.

Joe

 

[Mathman]

I just saw Joubert's long program on TV. To me, that was an ideally constructed men's program. Eight solid jumping passes, no fol-de-rol in between to confuse the issue. A nod in the direction of spins and footwork.

Lose the little batman wing on his left arm and it would be perfect.

 

[Spun Silver]

Have you seen Takahashi's NHK LP yet? No comparison.

I think BJ is better at TEB. I was disappointed in this LP. A Plushenko-style jumpfest with little in the way of artistry. But either it was "hotter" at TEB or it doesn't wear well. All the same - with the multiple quads he will win any competition (that's not in Japan).

 

[debdelilah]

Have you seen Takahashi's NHK LP yet? No comparison.

I think BJ is better at TEB. I was disappointed in this LP. A Plushenko-style jumpfest with little in the way of artistry. But either it was "hotter" at TEB or it doesn't wear well. All the same - with the multiple quads he will win any competition (that's not in Japan).

Is that necessarily true though? If he does quads instead of combinations, 3-3-3s or 3-3-2s could beat him, as could positive GOEs. Nobunari did get lots of positive GOEs at NHK, but having seen the programs, I think he deserved them. Brian got higher PCS than both Nobunari and Daisuke, but I don't know if he would still get higher PCS when the judges compare them directly in the same competition.

 

[Spun Silver]

Well, I hope you're right. Best case scenario is that all three will push each other both technically and artistically.

But what am I saying!?! Best case is if all four - including JOHNNY! - push each other etc.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Brian got higher PCS than both Nobunari and Daisuke, but I don't know if he would still get higher PCS when the judges compare them directly in the same competition.

That's exactly my point in comparing scores from one competition to another.
They are not the same judges for one thing and the venue of the competition, imo, has some bearing on the scores. The points may be fun to play around with but I don;t see them as proving anything and forget about predictions.

Nobunari will meet Joubert in St. Petersburg. That's a fact. What judges are there, I haven't a clue. One of the skaters will win and it will soon be forgotten when the Worlds comes around. It's a 3 quad program plus 3A versus a 3A bouncy performance, imo. It's whoever the majority of the judges prefer, not unlike 6.0 is it?

Joe