Men's Short Program, Sat. Nov. 12 at 2:30 am

[evangeline]

Patrick's best will absolutely beat Takahashi's best, fans' opinions notwithstanding. Similar PCS but much higher BV, especially in LP, with high GOE. Takahashi's best does not include a quad with high GOE. Chan has beaten Takahashi decisively at every single direct competition last and this season.

I don't think anyone has ever stated that Daisuke's current best SP would ever beat Patrick's best SP. The real question at issue here is, if Patrick and Daisuke both skate their best, how many points should Daisuke trail by? Some think 3 points is reasonable, others say it's ridiculous.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Only direct competition at the same event counts and have meaningful comparable scores. If both skated their SP perfectly, the difference would be basically more or less the BV difference. The GOE values are the same for 3A and quads but both have to do 3A, so a little bigger difference in GOE values between those of a quad and a triple will come into play in a tight perfect skates scenario. Add maybe a quad bonus in PCS for Patrick as the judges sometimes seem to do though not necessarily at this level with the top PCS guys.

 

[Buttercup]

You're right, I checked, and hereby officially homologate your gushing to be the first But this was only the GP, I can still be the first to gush over this programme during an ISU championships.

K, I think it's clear that you've won this thread.

 

[Bluebonnet]

So many were unhappy with Mroz "highly inflated" PCS because of his successful 4Lz. I went back and checked his last year's SP. See for yourself:

Mroz 2010 CoC SP 4th place finish 69.84

BV = 41.00
TES = 38.51
PCS = 31.33 (SS=6.36; TR=6.00; PE=6.39; CH=6.29; IN=6.29)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSATO2NQJ_E


Mroz 2011 NHK SP 3rd place finish 74.83

BV = 41.40
TES = 40.76
PCS = 34.07 (SS=6.89; TR=6.50; PE=6.93; CH=6.82; IN=6.93)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsciRBgwJgQ

My conclusion is that his this time's PCS was in reasonable range and he's earned it.

 

[emma]

I don't think anyone has ever stated that Daisuke's current best SP would ever beat Patrick's best SP. The real question at issue here is, if Patrick and Daisuke both skate their best, how many points should Daisuke trail by? Some think 3 points is reasonable, others say it's ridiculous.

to me, this is an interesting question - and, if they were both at, say the GPF or Worlds, and, say, both skated lights out clean it would, for this fan, be the most thrilling competition to watch maybe ever. And, I think I would be happy with the results whatever they might be, but regardless, I would definitely re-watch the programs a zillion times. But, back to the question, if they both skate their best with their current tech - and what the heck, let's give Dai the 4 flip, and let's say the GOEs resemble the scoring at this NHK event, then I think the answer would be that Chan wins on Tech base value and the difference in that portion would likely be the difference in base value only; then with the PCS....(I'm stuck - Chan wins SS, Dai wins the IN, but each wins these but they both get high scores in each...then tie choreo? peformance/execution is rough to figure out as they both execute great ...ok, I'm stuck.)

Wow, I seriously cannot wait for GPFs

 

[Violet Bliss]

to me, this is an interesting question - and, if they were both at, say the GPF or Worlds, and, say, both skated lights out clean it would, for this fan, be the most thrilling competition to watch maybe ever. And, I think I would be happy with the results whatever they might be, but regardless, I would definitely re-watch the programs a zillion times. But, back to the question, if they both skate their best with their current tech - and what the heck, let's give Dai the 4 flip, and let's say the GOEs resemble the scoring at this NHK event, then I think the answer would be that Chan wins on Tech base value and the difference in that portion would likely be the difference in base value only; then with the PCS....(I'm stuck - Chan wins SS, Dai wins the IN, but each wins these but they both get high scores in each...then tie choreo? peformance/execution is rough to figure out as they both execute great ...ok, I'm stuck.)

Wow, I seriously cannot wait for GPFs

I agree it would be the gretest event ever if both Chan and Takahashi skate lights out perfect at the same competition. The feelings may be familiar to the Canadian fans at the Canadian Nationals 2010 with the performances of Swayer and Chan back to back.

If Takahashi lands his 4F in his SP, his BV may even be higher than Chan's, depending on the levels of non jumps elements. In the LP, he needs to match the number of quads to Chan's, be it 2 or 3, to have equal BV. As usual, the winner will most likely be determined by the LP.

Regardless of outcomes, in a a rare event with lights out performances by the front runners, the fans are the winners.

 

[Jaana]

Our commentator mentioned about Takahashi sp: "If you can skate like that, you don´t need a quad."

 

[emma]

I don't have time to do this now (shouldn't even be on this board!) - but it would be interesting to compare the sp and lp base values for both. Taka can do 2 triple axels which helps him against Chan's two quads in the LP...hmmm, interesting food for thought. ok, back to work, for real this time!

ETA - Jaana - I can see that, but maybe you might need a quad if you skate like that and someone else does too...anyway, ice is slippery and these perfect performances are few and far between. crap. I'm obsessing, but only because I am so wowed by the talent and I haven't even talked much about Kazuka...or....

 

[gmyers]

Only Takahashi'ss belief that he would not be happy not doing a Free skate with a quad prevents the huge high scores he could be getting in a free skate that might be able to beat Chan. Takahashi has no problems going without a quad in the SP and there he was off CHan's record by 3. Takahashi has been throwing away his first jumping pass for 3 seasons now and imagine if he didn't? What score would he get with a triple triple with all 3 in GOE and if he was clean and what would the PCS be?

 

[Spun Silver]

You're right and I wish he would do that, but this stubbornness is what makes Dai the champion he is.

For some people obstinacy is a character flaw but in certain geniuses, it is what carries them beyond themselves to greatness. And we've already seen that.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Only Takahashi'ss belief that he would not be happy not doing a Free skate with a quad prevents the huge high scores he could be getting in a free skate that might be able to beat Chan. Takahashi has no problems going without a quad in the SP and there he was off CHan's record by 3. Takahashi has been throwing away his first jumping pass for 3 seasons now and imagine if he didn't? What score would he get with a triple triple with all 3 in GOE and if he was clean and what would the PCS be?

Takahashi's best ever SP trailed Chan's best by 3 points indicates clearly his chances of beating Chan with a quadless program is indeed extremely slim. His best quadless LP will similarly trail Chan's clean LP. I think Takahashi would rather gamble on a good 4F one of these days because without it, he can't beat Chan anyway.