Mirai Nagasu's future prospects

[ice coverage]

Quote from Mirai after Skate America:

On her training regime:
Even when Tom (Zakrajsek) tells me that I have to do another long program, or when we play a game like ‘long programs until its clean day,’ which we all hate — I love that process. And for the record, I have yet to do more than one long program under that game.
http://www.ifsmagazine.com/articles/32744-radionova-tuktamysheva-gold-cesario-nagasu-popova (Oct 28)​

ETA, note her usage of the word "love." :yes: ​

 

[b-man]

The "long programs until clean day" seems like a great training tool. I am glad Tom uses it. I hope he is judging the UR's strickly, because the real judges are.

 

[chuckm]

Many are predicting Mirai has no shot at a medal at CoR, but remember, last yeat she had a 9th? place finish at NHK and everyone counted her out. Yet she came back in a few weeks to take a bronze at CoR. Pogo and Park are by no means unbeatable, and I have no idea what condition Sot is in.

Last year at CoR, the only tough competition was Lipnitskaia and Kostner. Liza Tuk was severely off form as she was returning from injury, Miyahara was fresh out of juniors, Zawadzki and Murakami were struggling, and Osmond had withdrawn. Mirai was able to win bronze in an unexpectedly weak field.

That is not the case this year.


Park already beat Nagasu at Skate America and with a few more weeks practice should do it again at CoR. Park has a 3/3 and the 2a+3t, she rotates her jumps, and her presentation of Romeo and Juliet is passionate and quite moving.

Yes, Pogo is beatable---Asada, Lipnitskaia and Kostner did it at Worlds, but I don't think Mirai is anywhere near in that echelon, and I doubt she is real competition for Sotnikova.

There are other skaters at SC who might be competition for Mirai as well: Alaine Chartrand, who beat Mirai at Nebelhorn, and Angela Wang, who nearly upset Gabrielle Daleman at the SC Autumn Classic.

 

[karne]

The "long programs until clean day" seems like a great training tool. I am glad Tom uses it. I hope he is judging the UR's strickly, because the real judges are.

If she's never had to do more than one, then he's not.

 

[Icey]

That's a bad analogy. All I'm saying is that the people who make money off Mirai are going to be the last people to tell her that she is not up to par with the best in the world. It's perfectly reasonable and not offensive. Why would a coach cut off a paying relationship if he was getting along with a student?

Why? Integrity. Coaches have fired students in the past, Frank firing Goeble, for example. Mirai's people did fine without her and they will do fine if their relationship with her ends.

 

[b-man]

Last year at CoR, the only tough competition was Lipnitskaia and Kostner. Liza Tuk was severely off form as she was returning from injury, Miyahara was fresh out of juniors, Zawadzki and Murakami were struggling, and Osmond had withdrawn. Mirai was able to win bronze in an unexpectedly weak field.

That is not the case this year.

Yes, I get your bias, which is repeated almost every other post. Mirai is terrible, therefore, anyone she beats must be injuired, or is having a bad day.

 

[chuckm]

And I get your bias, b-man. You think Mirai on a good day can beat the best in the world. Problem is, Mirai hasn't had a good day in over 5 years.

I'd love to see Mirai do well, but she has a double handicap: URs, which she doesn't seem to have addressed at all, and her inability to relate to the music or the audience during a competition. Those two conditions put a ceiling on her international scores (so far this season she's scored under 160 at both Nebelhorn and SA). She scored about 175 at COR 2013, but that isn't competitive with the mid 180's Pogo and Sot scored last year in the GP, and both went on to higher scores and greater success later in the season.

 

[burntBREAD]

I do agree though that the fact that Mirai hasn't been made to do more then one program on those days is a bit suspect; hopefully after SA Tom Z will be more stringent.

Also, doesn't Colorado Springs have a bunch of technology that helps skaters with mechanics? I recall Patrick Chan and Christy Krall working with Dartfish or something to optimize his jumps.

 

[noskates]

...nevermind.

 

[ice coverage]

Yes, I get your bias, which is repeated almost every other post. Mirai is terrible, therefore, anyone she beats must be injuired, or is having a bad day.

chuckm has a habit of repeating his pessimism about certain skaters over and over.

At the time of the JGP season, he could not stop criticizing Edwards/Pang for not competing at Lake Placid. And he could not stop stating his prediction that they were doomed to being surpassed this season by Lake Placid winners McNamara/Carpenter.

"Funny" that chuckm has been completely silent (AFAIK) about the fact that Edwards/Pang ultimately qualified for the JGPF, and McNamara/Carpenter did not.

(Yes, it is true that E/P placed only second at one of their JGPs. And it is true that what happens at Junior Worlds remains to be seen. Just sayin' that chuckm has not bothered to credit E/P with a major accomplishment that their American rivals did not match.)

... Why would a coach cut off a paying relationship if he was getting along with a student?

Why? Integrity.

Amen, Icey. Thank you.

 

[chuckm]

chuckm has a habit of repeating his pessimism about certain skaters over and over.

At the time of the JGP season, he could not stop criticizing Edwards/Pang for not competing at Lake Placid. And he could not stop stating his prediction that they were doomed to being surpassed this season by Lake Placid winners McNamara/Carpenter.

"Funny" that chuckm has been completely silent (AFAIK) about the fact that Edwards/Pang ultimately qualified for the JGPF, and McNamara/Carpenter did not.

(Yes, it is true that E/P placed only second at one of their JGPs. And it is true that what happens at Junior Worlds remains to be seem. Just sayin' that chuckm has not bothered to credit E/P with a major accomplishment that their American rivals did not match.)

Edwards / Pang lucked out by having weaker competition than McNamara / Carpenter faced.

In both of their competitions, Edwards / Pang's top competitor was Loboda / Drozd and they traded gold/silver positions with L/D in each of their meetings. They wound up placing 4th (L/D) and 5th (E/P) in the overall JGP standings, with total scores of 266.42 and 264.04, respectively.

McNamara / Carpenter, OTOH, faced the #2 (Bent / MacKeen) AND #3 (Popova / Vlasenko) JGP finishers in their first event, and #3 in their second. BTW, McNamara / Carpenter's total score, 270.14, is quite a bit higher than both Edward / Pang's and Loboda Drozd's and reflects the tougher competition they faced.

E/P lucked out with the events they drew; M/C drew a short straw in that regard. I enjoyed McNamara/Carpenter's programs very much and feel they will do very well at JW, which is an even playing field.

In any case, we all know that Yanovskaia / Mosgov will win the JGPF and JW by a mile and likely one of the other Russian teams will be in for a medal at both as well. It will be a long, long time before more than one NA team stands on an ice dance podium again.

 

[kwanatic]

:sarcasm:

 

[ice coverage]

Edwards / Pang lucked out by having weaker competition than McNamara / Carpenter faced.

In both of their competitions, Edwards / Pang's top competitor was Loboda / Drozd and they traded gold/silver positions with L/D in each of their meetings. They wound up placing 4th (L/D) and 5th (E/P) in the overall JGP standings, with total scores of 266.42 and 264.04, respectively.

McNamara / Carpenter, OTOH, faced the #2 (Bent / MacKeen) AND #3 (Popova / Vlasenko) JGP finishers in their first event, and #3 in their second. BTW, McNamara / Carpenter's total score, 270.14, is quite a bit higher than both Edward / Pang's and Loboda Drozd's and reflects the tougher competition they faced.

E/P lucked out with the events they drew; M/C drew a short straw in that regard. I enjoyed McNamara/Carpenter's programs very much and feel they will do very well at JW, which is an even playing field.

My point was and is that you had stated repeatedly that E/P had made a fatal error (I'm paraphrasing) by deciding not to compete at Lake Placid.
Turns out that it was not a fatal error.

Bottom line: I for one will take whatever you say about Mirai with many grains of salt.

 

[chuckm]

I've watched Mirai since she was a junior (before she won the junior title) and I was amazed then at her talent. But even way back then, when she was a tiny little thing, she didn't make it out of sectionals because she underrotated her jumps. She was able to correct that tendency until she had her first growth spurt, and after that, the URs became a constant. But despite that, as a young senior, she was a charming competitor, with an engaging smile and a great presence on the ice. That all disappeared after the 2010 season, perhaps because of a second major growth spurt that made her uncomfortable with her new body and for the first time, uncertain of her jumping ability.

 

[Gullygirl84]

Phil Hersh has a new (in my opinion, very harsh) article about Mirai Nagasu, that addresses many of the issues brought up in this thread. Some points were relevant and obvious, others he just sounded like a jerk to me (but hey, it's Phil Hersh. Plus, I'm a fan girl, so I naturally will be defensive on a few points. Mirai has tweeted Phil a response to his article saying "your articles never fail to disappoiint, Phil."). For instance, Nagasu made the point after Skate America that she was raised in the 6.0 system and that this could contribute to her UR tendancies (pretty generic, I don't think she was saying that being raised under the 6.0 system is entirely responsible). Phil named several elite skaters who were raised under the 6.0 system, and have had no such issues with UR, as if that invalidates her point entirely. I agree that it would be nice to get a happier looking performance out of her. She seemed to get more into the performance at the JO (at least, the second half of the program. She obviously needs to do way more). She did not look relieved or happy when she finished her LP at Skate America, so she must have at least recognized the URs this time. I will continue my delusions that she still has a few good comeback skates in her. It may not mean making the world team, but I think a podium finish or 4cc medal could still be possible.

 

[karne]

I would dispute that Mirai was "raised" under the 6.0 system. The IJS system has been in place for nearly 11 years - Mirai would have been 10 at most when it came in. That's a lot of years to correct technique, years that obviously weren't used for that purpose.

I would consider someone like Plushenko or Menshov to have been "raised" under the 6.0 system. Those who are are getting fewer and fewer each year.

And this is the first time I've ever heard 6.0 used as an excuse for URs.

 

[Gullygirl84]

Ok, maybe it is entirely bogus as a contributing factor then, haha. I guess maybe I meant just in terms of bad technique not being corrected early enough. I don't know how long it takes to undo bad habits, but other skaters have been able to improve on them. Clearly she has had this issue for a while and I'm not sure what can be done to improve it at this point. They seemed to get a little better under Frank, but it didn't last. I remain hopeful.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I would dispute that Mirai was "raised" under the 6.0 system. The IJS system has been in place for nearly 11 years - Mirai would have been 10 at most when it came in. That's a lot of years to correct technique, years that obviously weren't used for that purpose.

More importantly, when she was younger she didn't < jumps nearly as much as she does now.

 

[Gullygirl84]

Whatever, my takeaway is that I'm sure Mirai fully grasps the mental, physical, and financial toll that competing takes on her, and that she doesn't need Phil Hersh to tell her to "look within herself" to see if it's still worth it. I think she'll move on when she's ready. Another thing that made me uncomfortable about Phil's article was his assertion that Mirai relating to Madame Butterfly is "unnerving"...what is he trying to imply here? I don't think she meant it literally. Guess I should expect as much from Phil "Gracie looks like she stepped off a Beach Boys song" Hersh.

 

[Sandpiper]

Phil Hersh has a new (in my opinion, very harsh) article about Mirai Nagasu, that addresses many of the issues brought up in this thread. Some points were relevant and obvious, others he just sounded like a jerk to me (but hey, it's Phil Hersh. Plus, I'm a fan girl, so I naturally will be defensive on a few points. Mirai has tweeted Phil a response to his article saying "your articles never fail to disappoiint, Phil."). For instance, Nagasu made the point after Skate America that she was raised in the 6.0 system and that this could contribute to her UR tendancies (pretty generic, I don't think she was saying that being raised under the 6.0 system is entirely responsible). Phil named several elite skaters who were raised under the 6.0 system, and have had no such issues with UR, as if that invalidates her point entirely. I agree that it would be nice to get a happier looking performance out of her. She seemed to get more into the performance at the JO (at least, the second half of the program. She obviously needs to do way more). She did not look relieved or happy when she finished her LP at Skate America, so she must have at least recognized the URs this time. I will continue my delusions that she still has a few good comeback skates in her. It may not mean making the world team, but I think a podium finish or 4cc medal could still be possible.

Do you have a link to this article, or a more thorough summary of it? (I'm not sure I can read Hersh's articles since I don't have a subscription). For instance, who were the skaters he named that grew up under 6.0 and don't have UR issues? I don't hold much stock in what Phil Hersh says, but I'm a bit curious to see what strange article he's written this time.

EDIT: In case I made it sound otherwise, of course there were plenty of 6.0 skaters with no/little UR issues. I'm just trying to think of which ones actually lasted into COP and were still successful, and most of my responses are guys/pairs. Most of the girls who grew up under 6.0 didn't compete in COP for more than the first few years of it.