Men
1. Daiskuke Takahashi
2. Takahiko Kozuka
3. Jeremy Abbott
4. Brian Joubert
5. Adam Rippon
Okay, this will be interesting. Unlike CoC being so cut and dry (which it wasn't, but we'll let that slide), on paper, this is a deep line-up. First question: is Brian Joubert still struggling, mentally? As people have asked here/elswhere, does Plushenko being back make him a less unique commodity (as Plushenko rips of those quads and axels far more naturally than Joubert)? If the answer to either of these questions is yes, than I don't see how he can medal here, as his relative consistency and solid jumps were what got him those medals.
What about Abbott? Is he keeping the Beatles program (which is another great short) or not? On the one hand, he does well early in the season (see last year). On the other hand, less time to prepare is less time. Do expectations begin to mount for Rippon as an Olympic spot enters the realm of plausibility? Is Johnny able to recalibrate in time? And what about Brezina - along with Rippon and D. Ten, he's at the head of the pack of the group who'll threaten in Sochi. And can Chipeur improve after his disasterous TEB outing?
And finally, Takahashi and Kozuka. I think they'll be the top two, and I'm predicting Takahashi to win on the basis of strong PCS (he's a more outward skater).
Women
1. Miki Ando
2. Laura Lepisto
3. Yukari Nakano
4. Sarah Meier
5. Ashley Wagner
Another oddly deep field, but the problem is more that it's unexpectedly so. Meier, a consistent GP/Euros medalist who's previous season was marred by injury. How does she factor in? Wagner benefited from a disappointing competition in CoR. How does she factor in here? And who is the #1 European skater now? Is it Lepisto, being the reigning European champion? Is it Kostner, being the only (multi)medalist and, in terms of pure ability, likely the best? Every competition so far has had a major upset - Asada off the podium at CoR. S/S at third and Joubert 4th at TEB. Rochette at CoC. So it's obviously quite tempting to try and predict one here. But I won't (despite flirting with putting both Nakano and Lepisto on top, I'll stick with the easy choice and go for a medalist here). Miki Ando seems to have a solid strategy this season and she did well at CoR despite having a very new short program. Phaneuf would do well to crack the top five, but I think she'll be bubbling under it.
Pairs
1. Pang/Tong
2. Kavaguti/Smirnov
3. Inoue/Baldwin
4. Brodeur/Mattatal
5. Denney/Barrett
I'm VERY curious how bronze plays out. The top two will be the top two, in either/or order, but the next three... confuse me. Brodeur and Mattatal have a nice program, but are rough around the edges (and the short program doesn't play to their strength, with are in their easy lifts). Inoue/Baldwin saw coaching changes pay off dividends with their free in TEB, and I suspect that after ending their last season at 4CC, they're definitely eager to make the world/Olympic team. And Denney/Barrett... well, basically I see these three teams in any combination filling out the top five. The next three are basically there for the experience.
Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Kerr/Kerr
3. Crone/Poirier
4. Reed/Reed
5. Zadorozhniuk/Verbillo
Davis/White dominate again. Z/V could beat the Reeds, but I think skating in Japan will give them a mild boost and they'll sneak past. If Kerr/Kerr don't fix the levels, I can see C/P sneaking past them, but that's not that likely.
