NHK Trophy Preview

[gsk8]

The ISU Grand Prix draws to a close this week in Nagano, Japan with the NHK Trophy. An emerging superpower in the skating world, Japan shows signs of eclipsing Russia and the United States in the singles disciplines with unsurpassed young talent. The time for that young talent is now.

More ...

 

[nymkfan51]

Acoording to the ISU's updated list, both Kostner and Gedevanishvili are out, and the only replacement is Tugba Karademir.

http://www.isu.org/vsite/vfile/page/fileurl/0,11040,4844-176494-193712-108443-0-file,00.pdf

 

[slutskayafan21]

Lambiel may need to be satisfied with just making the podium at this event.

This about the most ridiculous statement one could ever make. What a joke of a preview.

 

[rain]

This about the most ridiculous statement one could ever make. What a joke of a preview.

I agree with you about that statement. I'd put money on Lambiel before Takahashi. And while Oda is very promising, Lambiel has a quad and is the world champion.

There is nobody here to challenge the three Japanese ladies and they will undoubtedly form the podium.

Dubreuil and Lauzon have had "lucky" draws this season in terms of being able to easily win, but I'm not sure they may not have preferred to face some of their real challengers a bit earlier and get the lay of the land while they still had more time to make changes or improvements to programs. It can be a two-edged sword.

 

[R.D.]

The Big One- the time has come for Asada and Suguri to step up. I think Asada will win this one, although Suguri and Nakano have surprised before. Those are the only three I care about here because I think everyone else is out of contention for the GPF.

 

[nymkfan51]

I think the podium will be:

Asada
Suguri
Nakano

 

[R.D.]

I think the above is a very likely scenario. However, it could just as easily be Suguri-Asada-Nakano as well.

P.S. Your custom title- is that old or is there an announcement I missed?

 

[rain]

I think the above is a very likely scenario. However, it could just as easily be Suguri-Asada-Nakano as well.

P.S. Your custom title- is that old or is there an announcement I missed?

Or both Suguri and Asada cave to the enormous pressure of skating at home, leaving Nakano left standing, lol.

 

[R.D.]

Or both Suguri and Asada cave to the enormous pressure of skating at home, leaving Nakano left standing, lol.

I think the one thing clear in all this is that a Japanese sweep is heavily favored.

 

[Kasey]

I think the one thing clear in all this is that a Japanese sweep is heavily favored.

Agreed....the order of finish is up in the air.

And Takahashi has a "reliable" quad? I love Daisuke, but I don't think, having watched him the last two seasons or so, that his quad jump is so reliable. I know he's rotated it a few times, but how many times has he landed it cleanly? I mean, that statement kind of hit me like "Buttle has a reliable quad". But maybe I've been missing on some of Dai's attempts.

 

[enlight78]

Agreed....the order of finish is up in the air.

And Takahashi has a "reliable" quad? I love Daisuke, but I don't think, having watched him the last two seasons or so, that his quad jump is so reliable. I know he's rotated it a few times, but how many times has he landed it cleanly? I mean, that statement kind of hit me like "Buttle has a reliable quad". But maybe I've been missing on some of Dai's attempts.

I can't stop laughing.
Now I can't breath.

 

[nymkfan51]

Your custom title- is that old or is there an announcement I missed?

Haha!!! It's old ... I really should change it. Maybe I'll just keep it though ... this way, when she does come back, I'll be one step ahead of everyone else!

 

[R.D.]

When she comes back? Do you know something the rest of us here don't? If so, please enlighten us

 

[nymkfan51]

Wouldn't you like to know!!!

 

[leon]

If Mao does not win gold at NHK she'll not qualify for the Grand Prix Final. Wouldn't that be odd, Julia in but Kimmie and Mao out . . .
Smart money would be on Mao to win. Even with a badly botched free skate at Skate America, Mao still outscored Fumie's skate at Skate Canada, 171.23 to 168.76. If Mao puts together 2 decent skates, Fumie won't be able to touch her.
As the saying goes, though, the ice tends to be slippery, especially if there is a lot on the line.

 

[nymkfan51]

I agree leon ... I believe Mao will deliver 2 solid programs and beat Fumie. She may not land two 3/A's, but she won't have to against Fumie, IMO.

I'm just lovin' these Japanese ladies!!!

 

[Mathman]

On the men's side, even taking into account the home court advantage for Oda and Takahashi, IMHO it's still Lambiel's to lose.

Stephane did not deliver everything he is cabable of at Skate Canada. But his intended jump layout (LP) is something like this:

3A 7.5
4T+3T 13.0
3Lo 5.0
2A 3.3
4T 9.0
3F+3T 9.5
3Lz+2T 7.3
3S 4.5

Total 59.1

Oda at Skate America:

3A+3T+2Lo 13.0
3Lo 5.0
3Lz+2T 7.3
3A 7.5
3S+2T 5.8
3F 5.5
3 Lz 6.0
2A 3.3

Total 51.4

Anything can happen. But the quad is huge.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

The Men

I'm holding off on Lambiel not winning if there is a flare up in the knee Otherwise, I would give him extra points for skating to Vivaldi. It's not Carmen with all its definite beats and rhythyms. There are no rest periods. Also the trip Geneva/Nagano is not little hop like NYC/Chicago. Hope he arrives with full necessities and gets in several days of aclimatizing and practice. Also every skater has poor days for whatever reasons, and he is not immune to that.

Other than the world champ, one has to think Oda has some sort of lock on this. Although he is quadless. That is not so important as Lambiel being 3Aless for some gawdawful reason. He's cute and lively and will win the roar of the crowd. I pick him for gold. Hope he is able to finish his LP with gusto (not apparent in previous competitions.)

Of course, there is Daisuke for the challenge of the home country crowd. He does have a quad. If he skates the LP before Oda, he will be in the gold rush.

Yet, there is a dark horse. Kevin van der Perren!! Brussels/Nagano not an easy trip. Hope he gets there early for aclimatising and practice. Hey, yaneverno.

The Ladies is quite simple. It has to be the three Japanese. Mao must win
to qualify for St. Petersburg. Similarly Fumie and Yukari have to be at least silver so Mao's finish is the factor here. If Mao comes in second, she doesn't go and I believe one of the others also does not go. I'll have to check that.

Joe

 

[Oscilla]

Thank you for the calculations, Mathman, but shouldn't you count the credit for highlight distribution as well? I tried to do it myself, but I'm so sleepy I can hardly count my own fingers, so forgive me if I made any mistakes...

Lambiel at SC:

3A 7.5
4T+3T 13.0
3Lo 5.0
2A 3.3
4T 9.90 x
3F+3T 10.5 x
3Lz+2T 8.03 x
3S 4.95 x

Total 62.18

Oda at Skate America:

3A+3T+2Lo 13.0
3Lo 5.0
3Lz+2T 7.3
3A 8.3 x
3S+2T 6.38 x
3F 6.05 x
3 Lz 6.60 x
2A 3.63 x

Total 56.26

That's without the GoEs, though.

I don't really care who'll win, I just hope there will be no splatfest and each of the competitors will be able to skate to their full potential.
...Although, I must admit, I have a soft spot for Oda.

 

[nymkfan51]

The Ladies is quite simple. It has to be the three Japanese. Mao must win to qualify for St. Petersburg. Similarly Fumie and Yukari have to be at least silver so Mao's finish is the factor here. If Mao comes in second, she doesn't go and I believe one of the others also does not go. I'll have to check that. Joe

Joe, if Mao finishes 2nd, then she's out and Rochette makes it. If Mao finishes 3rd and Fumie and Nakano go 1/2 ... then they're in and she's still out.