Maybe it's stupid to comment on your own poll, but I think Tim is going to win this year. Even without any previous competitions all season (excluding that Campbell's thing in October), he's just... better than everyone else.
I think Weiss is going to win it b/c he's probably more comfortable with his program after performing it a million times. I'm expecting falling or two footing from both of them, but Wiess may win on presentation. Without the jumps, Timmy won't win(heck he doesn't even win with them if you take a look at last years Nationals) and I think that Campbell's earlier this season showed that. The judges were sending him a very clear message there. I really don't care for either Timmy or Weiss, but Weiss has been out there more this season and the judges could really factor that into their personal decision if it's close between him and Timmy. And if Todd is going to compete like I hear he may, then maybe even he could win.
IMO if you are going to factor politics into judges decisions, as sending someone a message, or holding Weiss up cause he's been out there more......the American judges, if possible, are going to give the title to Goebel. He is an Olympic and World medal holder. Federations do like to send their best out into the world.(or what the world perceives as their best) They want the best chance for placements in next years Worlds.
I do not believe...unless everyone else in the competition skates their whole LP on their respective rear ends, would the USFSA send Micheal Weiss out into the world, as the American Champion. Lalique aside, there is just not the respect out there for him to pull off bringing home a medal. Now, they might send Todd to Worlds for the same reason....respect.....if everyone at Worlds this year skate badly, Eldredge could possibly place in the top five, at least.
>>I do not believe...unless everyone else in the competition skates their whole LP on their respective rear ends, would the USFSA send Micheal Weiss out into the world, as the American Champion. << I'm going to have to agree. Weiss isn't consistent at the best of times, Eldredge (is he coming back for Nationals AGAIN?! What happened to the whole 'pro' thing?!) doesn't have the jumps, nor does Savoie... and Weir isn't very... world-class. I just can't see Tim, even coming off an injury, not winning this one. He's an Olympic and World medalist, something that eluded Weiss & Eldredge last year. He may not be the best at presentation, but he's proven that he can stand on the podium with the best of them.
Well they did send him last year instead of Matt Savoie who I think had a better skate, so they may not be counting Weiss out yet. And since Nationals is right around the corner, we'll just have to see. Hopefully Campbell's was the only meltdown from Timmy that we'll see this season but being rusty isn't abnormal. Is Timmy going to be at the challenge this weekend?
I really think that the only reason Weiss went to the Olympics instead of Savoie was his ability to sometimes land a quad. That's it. And the reason why Tim had a so-called 'meltdown' at Campbell's was because of an injury. He's supposed to be at the challenge this weekend.
Yeah, I'm sure that's why they sent him instead of Matt but that's still showing their bais for him.
I know Timmy was injured. But he could still be getting back into the swing of performing the jumps again(because we all know practice ice is different). But now that I know he'll do the Crest competition, he could warm them up there which may be all he needs. This sways my prediction a little but I have to see what he does this weekend. If he falls 2 times I'll think he'll win Nats(if Todd doesn't go). 3 falls will keep me skeptical though.
If both Timmy and Michael skate clean Michael should win on account of his presentation. I think Lalique was a turning point for Weiss since he finally proved to himself and the skating world that he can put it all together.
However if Weiss falters at all Timmy will win. Eldredge is a wildcard but I can't see him being there because of his tour commitments. If Eldredge does compete and he skates cleanly he should win.
Savoie and Weir have no shot unless the top guns really skate poorly.
I think that if both Tim and Weiss skate cleanly, Tim should win, because of the fact that he can do MORE. Presentation is nice and all, but the jumps are becoming more and more important. Tim is more consistent, he's improving his artistry, and he has the jumps. Weiss wasn't able to medal at Olympics or Worlds... and does anyone else think he is excruciatingly boring to watch?
I don't think Weiss is boring at all. I think the Mike Pike and the new blades have to go, but besides that he has all of the tools needed to be a champion. If he nails a quad Lutz, and he's been close a few times, I'd look out for him. He can also do the 432 combo--he did it at the Olympics.
Allie Katz: You are hysterical! A post-er after my own heart! I agree with everything you said. Tim, I think, should have no problem winning Nationals. He should have won last year, as you said. With no Todd (who shouldn't have won anyway) he'll be a shoo-in. Matt Savoie--- I don't mind the kid, really I don't. His choreography is pretty good, and second place would be good. I like Johnny Weir, but I personally think he has no chance for the gold or silver, probably not the bronze either. Funny about the blush thing though. BoredomBlades just about describes Michael Weiss, his skates, and his whole career. Blech, if he wins, I'm giving up skating forever. And Todd, wherever you are, do us all a favor, and STAY PRO!!!
Ok, now after watching Crest, I know I said that if Timmy fell once or twice he'd still win, but I didn't know Mike was going to be there and since he placed ahead of Timmy, I still think he can pull it out. Neither of them have a fall advantage though.
<span style="color:red;font-family:helvetica;font-size:small;">Alley Cats... oops I mean Allie Katz... awesome post! My bet is on Mike this year. I'm glad that it will actually be a COMPETITION this year. I'm bored when there is one obvious choice for the title.</span>