Predictions

[Joesitz (RIP)]

rockababy - You're a betting 'man'. This fluff competition is a chance to get one's feet wet and try out the new routines in front of judges as well as an audience.

I wouldn't bet on a winner - not enough up-to-date info. I could list the placements of the contestants based on info from last season, but it's been a while since Hersheys (March(?)). I'll be looking for improvements, if any.

Will there be a splatfest?

Joe

 

[Mathman]

1. Fumie
2. Ann Patrice
3. Michelle

1. Evgenny
2. Timmy
3. Ryan

Answer to Joe's questions at the top of this page: Best music, Fumie. Everything else, Michelle.

Remember, you read it here first!

Mathman

 

[rtureck]

So we have to believe MM that Fumie has the best music. But I predict Fumie will do very well. Just look at my sig line, also remember the lucky numbers for Fumie in my sig line.

 

[mmandel]

Men
1. Evgeny
2. Tim
3. Takeshi
4. Alexei
5. Michael
6. Ryan

Ladies
1. Michelle
2. Irina
3. Sasha
4. Elena
5. Fumie
6. AP

 

[Mathman]

Understanding that "predictions" are just for fun and don't really mean a thing, here's what I think will happen with the ladies.

Michelle will fool around having fun in other aspects of her life -- attending school, going on promotional tours to Hong Kong, visiting her boy friend in Phoenix, etc. -- until the last minute, then she will throw something together. She will either skate an old program, like Arajuez, or skate a generic program to new music. Even a blah program from Michelle will win easily.

Fumie will be the only skater to come out prepared for the new season. She will skate her new long program to Mozart. She will have the best choreography (Lori Nichol). She will finish second. Only the unmatched talent and consumate grace of the World Champion will keep Fumie in second place.

Sasha will put out an amazing skate, but make just enough mistakes that she will have a fight on her hands for third with a clean AP, and beginning-of-the-season efforts from Irina and Elena.

That's what I think.

Mathman

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Nice rationalizing Mathman. I too, think MK will make an appearance and collect 200 dollars I don't think this will break her mood if she fails to place.

It's really Sasha's chance to prove she can skate clean. She aleady had a rehearsal at Sun Valley(?)

Fumie is alway serious. Sometime as little too much.

Irina to prove her 'comeback', but it really is a rehearsal.

Elena to prove she has the most complete set of 3/3s and she does.

AP sould show the most promise.

Joe

 

[show 42]

Mathman, I like your predictions for Michael..........we can only hope..........as for the ladies, it's a toss up among Irina, Michelle, and Sasha, with the clean skate winning the gold.............42

 

[Kwanisqueen81]

Campbell's

Understanding that "predictions" are just for fun and don't really mean a thing, here's what I think will happen with the ladies.

Michelle will fool around having fun in other aspects of her life -- attending school, going on promotional tours to Hong Kong, visiting her boy friend in Phoenix, etc. -- until the last minute, then she will throw something together. She will either skate an old program, like Arajuez, or skate a generic program to new music. Even a blah program from Michelle will win easily.

Fumie will be the only skater to come out prepared for the new season. She will skate her new long program to Mozart. She will have the best choreography (Lori Nichol). She will finish second. Only the unmatched talent and consumate grace of the World Champion will keep Fumie in second place.

Sasha will put out an amazing skate, but make just enough mistakes that she will have a fight on her hands for third with a clean AP, and beginning-of-the-season efforts from Irina and Elena.

That's what I think.

Mathman

Mathman I like the way you think!!
Here is how I feel, well first off this is to the skater's a chance to put their programs out there in front of Internatial Judges. So final placements are less important then the way the skater skates.

My Predictions
1. Michelle- The queen of usfsa cheese fest comps will debut her new long program w/ 5 tiples winning easly

2. Sasha-Sasha will give a suprisingly stong debut to Swan lake

3. Irina will give a stong but beatable performace, proving that she is still in the hunt.

4. AP Mac- this kid will skate near flawlessly but her basics compared to Michelle and Irina will hold her back

5. Fumie- will land 3 triples but skate with awesome spins and over all speed as always.

6. Elena- need still needs to improve her chero.

 

[peachstatesk8er]

In jest:

My only prediction is that if Sasha has an awesome skate and wins that the message boards will crash from the assault of Kwan fans screaming WUZ ROBBED, even if Michelle plays Human Zamboni (which will not happen so there's really no worries at all).

For real:

I think we'll see the usual placements.

 

[rtureck]

In jest

If Fumie has an awesome skate and place ahead of Sasha, the message boards will crash from the assaults of Sasha fans screaming WUZ robbed!!!! even if Sasha plays human ZAMBONI... Which will not happen, so there is no worries at all

Either way, I love to see what CMM will write about their skaters.

 

[BravesSkateFan]

No predictions for me this time around....I hate predicting the first comp of the year, especially when its a cheezefest But here are my wishes

1. Michelle
2. AP
3. Fumie
4. Sasha
5. Irina
6. Elena

1. Alexei
2. Tim
3. Takeshi
4. Plush
5. Mike/Ryan
6. Mike/Ryan

 

[R.D.]

I don't make predictions, however if you consider the following (based on past comps) I think it's reasonable to think the following:

MK in the top two
Cohen out of the top three
ES in the bottom two
AP and IS wild cards
Fumie S. either 2nd or 4th

My Disclaimer: This is only based on past comps. and holds no water (or not much) otherwise.

 

[KaitSk8]

Ladies
1. Michelle
2. AP
3. Sasha
4. Irina
5. Fumie
6. Elena

Michelle will most likely win, as always, I think AP can defend her silver medal...she's feeling good about skating and that should carry over into her performances...I think Sasha will be third and then down from there

 

[Norlite]

I think AP can defend her silver medal...she's feeling good about skating and that should carry over into her performances..

I wonder if changing back to Zakrajsek at this late date will throw off the beginning of her season at all?

Best of luck to her. Watching her is always enjoyable.

 

[KaitSk8]

I hope not! She didn't have to change rinks though so hopefully she'll be okay

 

[RealtorGal]

I'll go out on a limb here and say:

1. Tim
2. Plush
3. Mike

1. Sasha
2. Michelle
3. Irina

 

[roundboypete]

Best wishes to everyone in this competition.

Pete

 

[rtureck]

Round boy Pete you can't play this trick on us. What happened to your poem?

 

[berthes ghost]

IIRC, AP is reusing her MB LP and therefore has an advantage over the other ladies who are debuting thiers.

IIRC, MK anounched that she had a new Morosov LP weeks, maybe even months ago, so last minute throw together is bs. The rule of thumb for the past 5 years or so has been that MK has to fall once or twice and someone else has to be perfect in order for her to come in second. It's hers to lose.

The 3 Americans are favored, IMO, because they don't have to travel half way across the world and battle jet lag.

After her world title, Irina seems to be having motivation problems ,IMHO. Her only win since worlds was Euros, and it was a tentative win, not outstanding. I think that she will be here for the apearance fee.

The trouble with Sasha is that the cronic mistakes are not only falls on jumps. She stumbles on fw, she stumbles out of spins. I think that the judges may favor a flawed Irina just because too many of Sasha's jlitches are on silly mistakes on "easy" elements. Her SV debute was no different.

It's too hard to say which of the two faces of Fumie will show up. Either she will skate well and medal, or she will skate horribly and come in last. 50/50 chance it seems.

Cupcake has always been up and down, but she never has an interesting LP.

I'm gonna go with :
1. MK
2. AP
3. Irina
4. Sasha
5. Cupcake
6. Fumie

1. Plushy (on a bad day, he's still the one to beat)
2. Tim
3. Alexei (but seriously, I wouldn't be surprised if he withdrew)
4. Honda
5. Weiss
6. Ryan

The mens events don't seem to change all that much.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Interesting points! Berthes Ghost. I always enjoy reading posts with explanations that go beyond the usual 'favorites'. While I won't make predictions, I agree with much of what you say.

Joe