ISU judges, including European judges, AFAIR, are used at 4CC's. However, Ryan will not be going to 4CC's.
As to whether his LP is a gay parody or Amadeus, here's what his ISU bio says:
http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs00003278.htm
Music Free Skating / Free Dance as of season 2009/2010 Amadeus - Mozart Medley
I don't think international judges will be particularly kind to Ryan--I'm not predicting him to beat Joubert, either. If you recall, I said top ten.
But Mathman, Just so, I agree he won't be in any severe problems for keeping 2 spots if he lands both 3A and both 4ts--here's why:
Here's why:
When assessing Ryan's skating/skating skills, one should consider, that although his edges are not deep, and he skates with relatively few transitions:
He does 4t3t in the short. No US guy goes this. Van der Perren does, however.
He attempts 4t3t and 4t in the long, and has landed it from time to time. Likewise Van der Perren attempted this.
This year he has 3a3t and threw it in as an extra freebee in the LP. This year, he has his 3a back (missing a long time, and I do wonder if when the surgeon fixed his foot, he also fixed something that had been wrong a long time. Ryan says he has the xrays of an 80 yr old man. He had a great 3A as a junior, and then it went missing, although he had the quad. It's always puzzled me.) His landing it leaned forward more than I would like (sort of Stojko-ish), but consistently landing it.
He has 3S2t2t
He has 3Lz, not a flutz, and did it in the LP at Nationals. Tim Goebel flutzed. Ryan does the 3F in the SP because when he set the program up, he couldn't do 3Lz because the outside edge of his take off foot was the one that was still pinned togehter, and he couldn't stress it yet.
He has 3F, not a lip. Johnny Weir lipped. So do Brian Joubert, Tomas Verner, Pieter Liebers, and Florent Amodio (check out the Europeans LP results this year.
His 3Lo is perhaps his best jump, and it's a jump that has been the Nemesis of a number of skaters. Including Gachinski. He does it while waiting for the previous skater's score to come up, Along with a single axel.
He can tack a 3T on anything, and do one in the middle of a puddle on the ice. (Menshov struggles with the second jump in combination)
He doesn't underrotate stuff (cf. Schultheiss and Jeremy)
He can do an exhibition that people will pay to see. In Russia...at least according to Evgeni Plushenko:
He does not make pig faces in the KnC.
He can't do a 4S (or at least I've never seen him try one) Tim Goebel could do one.
And when he's on, the jumps are HUGE, which gets good GOE on jumps.
How long is it since we had a skater in the USA who can do all that?
Evan and Johnny never had a reliable 4T
Evan has a scratchy, rather nasty axel take off.
as a result, very often his planned 3a3t is a 3a2t.
Tim Goebel flutzed, and the height on his jumps was good, not great. He made it up by being very slender and so getting fast rotation.
Johnny Weir lipped and couldn't decent flow in a 3 jump combo and often left it out entirely.
Jeremy? Well, AFAIR he has never done 2 quads in a program, nor can he do a quad combo of any sort.
So let's look at Ryan's SP:
4t3t
3a
ccsp3
3f
ffsp3
slst2
cocsp4
Base value,
as skated at US Nationals, 39.40; this is not "planned"; this is as executed.
Ryan's Base Value exceeds all but Amodio's & Brezina's total TES
As executed base values at Europeans:
Amodio's base is 36.10
Brezina's base is 35.90
Gachinski's base is 37.10, with a 4t3t, 3a, but he completely blew a spin, and does a loop for his extra jump.
van der Perren's base is 37.20, with a 4t3t and a 3a. It's lower than Ryan's because he does 3S and he got level 1 on a spin. Kevin got 33.96 total in PCS, a fair guess for what Ryan skating Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy will score at worlds, if he skates it as he did in Greensboro, which he very well may not do. However, I think Ryan would be underscored if he gets vdP's PCS scores. They are about the same in skating skills and transitions, but Ryan should crush Kevin in choreography and performance-won't happen, but that's how it should go, IMO.
So, anyhoo:
PCS guess 33.96
Base value of elements, with 0 GOE, 39.40
total score 73.36
If we give him van der Perren's GOE (and vdp had negative GOE's on 2 spins), then let's add
2.45
(Justified because Ryan's spins, while not creative, are decently quick and well centered, his straight line, while easy, is exciting, and his jumps were huge, if not entered from transitions. Somewhere in there he should get some positive GOE)
Total 75.81
So where would that have put him in the SP at Europeans?
In third place, but effectively tied with Brezina for second.
Probably skating in the second to last group for the LP, given that the 3 Japanese men and Patrick Chan will be in the first group with Brezina and Amodio--or Joubert or Verner, depending on how those guys do. Maybe 6th in the last group, but I doubt it, because USFSA will not be treating Ryan as the "anchor guy". They will be going with Dornbush, IMO, although for me he is the least of the 3 guys we are sending to Worlds. Stupid on their part, but there it is.
You will note that 3 Europeans can do, on their good days 4t3a in a short program: Brian, Gachinski, and van der Perren. On a really good day, Verner. And Menshov can do 4t2t, and two quads in the LP. Verner can do a 4T not in combination, and occasionally Fernandez does a stand alone 4T in the long. So does Schultheiss. If you don't think European judges, particularly Russians, will be touting the importance of quads in the SP and LP, think on. Likewise, Patrick Chan now does 4t in the SP and two quads in the LP. Canadians will also be pushing the importance of having a quad. A bellwether indicator of shifting winds is that a pretty good performance by Brezina in the LP only finished 10th there.
Now let's look at Ryan in the LP:
And here we have to do a best/worst case-does the Ryan of the practices show up, or the Ryan of last year's Nationals LP? or the Ryan of the Greensboro LP?
Again, let's look at his two base values, and let's give him a UR for the first of the 2 quads (it was marginal, and so gets 7.2 base rather than 4.1 for severely UR or 10.3 for fully rotatation), and bracket it with his base value, if he skates it as he did at practice:
84.80 (as at Practice)
78.64 (as at Nationals)
(as at nationals with the downgrade on the 4t, and the sequence penalty on the second 4t)
75.54 (obviously this is not an epic disaster, but drops him down..)
PCS of vanderPerren at Europeans
68.64
GOE of van der Perren (vdP skated an excellent LP)
5.13
So that leaves us with an estimate for Ryan of between 149 and 159 for the LP.
Coupled with 75.81 for the SP, I have him at a total score of between 225 and 234. Giving him a little benefit of the doubt on PCS, he medals at Europeans.
Amodio 226.86
Joubert 223.01
Verner 222.60
van der Perren 216.59 (Yes. Not Brezina, who didn't really skate that poorly in the LP)
If USFS takes a look at this analysis, and takes the lesson of the way Brezina dropped behind van der Perren at Europeans, they will push Ryan as their anchor guy. There's much more upside with Ryan than with Dornbush, who at best is a Brezina level kind of guy, and therefore at best is also top ten, at best. And if he flubs his SP, as at nationals, lower.
The quadless COP skater as a winner is in the process of becoming an endangered species again.