Selecting Skaters for the GP series

[blue dog]

V/T are far from getting ignored, they can go to the other 5 countries and give other pairs in Russia the chance to compete....I/M, G/E, S/K. The Russian Federation can't afford to be short-sighted anymore. If they put all their eggs in V/T and right before the Olympics one of them gets hurt and can't compete, there goes the "wonder team".

I hope the RF isn't that stupid and cultivates all the Russian teams; especially those who won't get invited somewhere else.

This is true. They still have good teams down the line, like the ones you mentioned.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

No, but name a country that ignores it's highest ranking skater at a host GP?

No problem in the United States. The Winners of their Nationals are there highest ranking skater. Anything else is not considered.
The US has Czisny, Bradley, D/W and Y/C. Since Bradley and Y/C are probably not going to make an appearance, they will have substitutes fill in.

 

[mskater93]

No problem in the United States. The Winners of their Nationals are there highest ranking skater. Anything else is not considered.
The US has Czisny, Bradley, D/W and Y/C. Since Bradley and Y/C are probably not going to make an appearance, they will have substitutes fill in.

USFS has "ignored" it's top Man many times over the GP series (Abbott, Weir...), so even if Bradley were remaining competitive, he could get passed over if the opportunity to get another skater a shot were to present itself.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

V/T are far from getting ignored, they can go to the other 5 countries and give other pairs in Russia the chance to compete....I/M, G/E, S/K. The Russian Federation can't afford to be short-sighted anymore. If they put all their eggs in V/T and right before the Olympics one of them gets hurt and can't compete, there goes the "wonder team".

I hope the RF isn't that stupid and cultivates all the Russian teams; especially those who won't get invited somewhere else.

1. I'm working on one for dance, and I will say that I believe that the RF will make that mistake.

2. Taking V/T at a GP isn't ignoring the other skaters. They could theoretically take on two of the teams you mentioned along with V/T (and D/R from Canada filling the second seed spot). In fact, I hope they do that.

 

[Mathman]

Yep. Thankfully, V/T skate for Russia, who will keep them for CoR.

Why "thankfully?"

With all the talk about monies influencing the reduced interest in sponsor support in figure skating, A GP event, is supported by its Host Fed (presumably to make profit) and the ISU (for getting their investment back).

Without a nice television contract the host federation will not be able to make a profit on the event, nor will the ISU be able to recoup its investment. This was a big issue for Skate America last year, with many heated exchanges between the ISU and the USFSA over money.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

USFS has "ignored" it's top Man many times over the GP series (Abbott, Weir...), so even if Bradley were remaining competitive, he could get passed over if the opportunity to get another skater a shot were to present itself.

I agree totally with what you said, but the bottom line is placing in the US Nationals to move forward to Worlds is the system the USFS uses. This Bradley did. While I did not consider him the best choice for Worlds, it was only my opinion against the system. His weak appearance in 2008 GPs was not considered, and there were no GPs for him in 2009. Was the win in US Nationals 2010 justified for Worlds Team over Abbott and Rippon both of whom were not at their best, but both were active in the GPs in 2009 and were considered by many to retain 3 places in 2012 Worlds.

I doubt this system of the National's results can change to a truer a system for sending the BEST skaters to the Worlds. It is so ingrained in the US Nationals, that it is expected by athletes, coaches and most fans.

There is no reason to consider who is the better between Miner and Dornbush presently. They should get 2 places in the GP scheme, and we'll have another look at what senior international experiences brought them.

This cutting down by the ISU of the GP eligibles is another factor in watching more skaters than before. I would like to have another look at Jason Brown before Nationals as well. Skaters to improve each year.

As Sylvia says, we should wait till the Official news of the GPs, and hopefully it brings a change to the US Nats system.

 

[Sylvia]

I agree totally with what you said, but the bottom line is placing in the US Nationals to move forward to Worlds is the system the USFS uses. This Bradley did. While I did not consider him the best choice for Worlds, it was only my opinion against the system. His weak appearance in 2008 GPs was not considered, and there were no GPs for him in 2009.

Bradley won a bronze at 2009 Skate America. He skipped the GP in the fall of 2010.

Was the win in US Nationals 2010 justified for Worlds Team over Abbott and Rippon both of whom were not at their best, but both were active in the GPs in 2009 and were considered by many to retain 3 places in 2012 Worlds.

Who knows? It was a deeper men's field at 2011 Worlds than at 2010 Worlds and Abbott and Rippon together may not have managed to retain the 3 spots either (and boy, would they have been criticized online...). It's a moot point now.

This cutting down by the ISU of the GP eligibles is another factor in watching more skaters than before. I would like to have another look at Jason Brown before Nationals as well.

I expect Jason Brown to return to the JGP. He won a silver in his 1st JGP last fall but didn't do well in his 2nd. I'm sure it is a goal of his to qualify for the Final this year (bad news is that the 2011-12 JGP Final qualifiers will be cut to 6 from 8 in all 4 disciplines ).

As Sylvia says, we should wait till the Official news of the GPs

That doesn't mean people shouldn't discuss and speculate to their heart's content until the official GP Announcement comes out.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

^^^
I never said people should stop talking about the GP series. It's a topic. I was just drawing attention to posters that official news of the GP will make it clear what we will then say about the revised GP system.

btw, the skating season is split into 2 years and at my age it becomes a bit fuzzy on what year I saw so-and-so in a GP series. I always welcome being corrected on the facts of results

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

FOR DANCE

Minimum score: 123.51
Cut-off on Season Best: 37th
Retirements: Kerrs (so 36 teams, with F/S back)
So, 23 teams, 24 slots.


Host Picks
Skate America: Davis/White, Kreingkrairut/Giuletti-Schmitt, Samuelson/Bates
Skate Canada: Virtue/Moir, Weaver/Poje, Harvey/Gagnon
Cup of China: Huang/Zheng, Yu/Wang, Guan/Wang
NHK: Reed/Reed
TEB: Pechelat/Bourzat, Carron/Jones, Blanc/Bouquet
Cup of Russia: Bobrova/Soloviev, Ilinykh/Katsalpov, Monko/Khaliavin

Okay, I’m gonna say, if Russia does what I expect to do, they’ll be making a HUGE mistake. Fine, Keep B/S and I/K together. That makes some sense – only one more seeded team to face and you might still be undecided on the Russian number one (why? I don’t know. B/S have beaten them three times AND have been together longer – look at the top two pairs, and figure it out. They’ve been together longer than Elena’s been alive ... almost). And I suspect you know that Riazanova/Tkachenko have been posting scores that suggest they are likely top ten candidates as well. So please, please, please do not put M/K with these two. Yes, they were the top junior team last season (Like I/K). Yes, their scores are amazing (they actually outpointed season’s best 7-10 at a junior event). But I’m gonna argue that putting I/K and M/K together now will actually hurt both teams. If you want I/K to be the future vis-a-vis Sochi, don’t make it look like they’re fighting with their compatriots. This isn’t 1994. In fact, I think it would be smarter to send I/K somewhere else. But they’ll probably do it anyway.

The rest are fairly self explanatory: I don’t think any of the French junior teams are gonna make the leap to seniors this year, and I don’t know any other senior teams. Skates America and Canada will be going along similar lines: one team unlikely to get a GP spot anywhere else, their top candidates and a middle team that has admirers (me! I think Lynn/Logan have phenomenal chemistry and would love to see them get a real shot over the next few years). The exception, of course, that Weaver/Poje are seeded.

Seeds
Skate America: Davis/White, Virtue/Moir, Pechelat/Bourzat
Skate Canada: Virtue/Moir, Weaver/Poje
Cup of China: Shibutanis, Bobrova/Soloviev
NHK: Davis/White, Weaver/Poje
TEB: Shibutanis, Pechelat/Bourzat
Cup of Russia: Virtue/Moir, Bobrova/Soloviev

The Shibs are so obviously in the worst position. They were third, but not third with a bullet – mere tenths away from fourth. So everyone is gonna be gunning for them, and with good reason: all these teams should be able to beat them. So TEB and Russia will definitely want them. If they avoid hostile territory, however, they have to go to China and Japan. Neither are particularly great because they’re back-to-back. So ideally, they’ll have to choose one hostile territory (I love it – makes it seem all clandestine) and one far away. But there’s another catch: Virtue/Moir are gonna want one of the European GPs, I’d wager. I’d bet on Cup of Russia – they like taking the last GP event. So the Shibs will likely take TEB. If they take TEB, they’ll get Cup of China as well, with D/W taking NHK along with SA and Virtue/Moir taking SC and CoR

Now, like I said, everyone should be gunning for the Shibs. P/B are the lucky beneficiaries and skate against them at home. So they’ll likely want one of the two North American competitions to avoid scheduling too much too close/travel etc. SC is out (W/P), so that means Skate America. No way SC allows W/P do two competitions back to back, so they get NHK, leaving B/S Cups China and Russia. The two European duos are happy because they get to face the Shibs once each.

... oh, yeah Virtue/Moir will compete at Skate America alongside Davis/White, exploiting the new rule. Shall we take a tour of the logic in this mind? Beware of cobwebs and trap doors!

There’s a perception, I believe, that certain federations work better together than others. Now this could be because of common cultural beliefs (the Eastern European countries w/ Russia), previous history in the skating arena (France and Russia), etc. Anyway, because Canada and the USA are culturally similar, I wonder if the same is true for Skates Canada and America. Because it should be. Playing a long game means working together (to a certain extent) while still protecting your own skaters’ interests.

So, how does this work to each federation’s benefit? What are the costs (imo) and risks? What are the unknown variables?

Skate America
Benefit: Having one of the current stars of the sport compete against one of its stars on home ice. The narrative practically writes itself. In the past six competitions these two faced each other, they’ve each beat the other in three (D/W: 4CC 2009, GPF 09, Worlds 2011; V/M: Worlds 2009, Olympics 2010, Worlds 2010). Friends/training mates/ competitiors, etc. As a rule, I’ve noticed that the US Federation doesn’t use narratives as effectively as they could (for example, remember the Lysacek vs Wier narrative? And how stupid it was? Or how about reliable Rachael?). Ice dance is becoming increasingly popular amongst American skaters and it’s provided the most medals. As it trends towards the more densely athletic (D/W’s free dance is insane in this regard), it becomes more appealing. So take those two facets (the strong narrative D/W and V/M provide along with the discipline’s increasing popularity) and let Skate America be the showcase.
Cost/Risk: Of course, the risk to SA is that D/W might lose. Not insignificant, and D/W probably want to avoid losing the momentum of their remarkable season (six straight victories, including Nationals). To be honest, I don’t think D/W’s scared of losing to V/M, and if they do, that probably motivates them (remember, they went from the closest medal loss in COP history to a dominating skate at Cup of Russia). And the cost of coming in second once doesn’t really negate their chances at the GPF (they likely win their other event)

Skate Canada
Benefit: Having the season begin so blazingly hot. Regardless who wins, figure skating becomes more newsworthy a topic (obviously better if V/M win, but either/or is good). That SC is a week later means that more people, hearing about the buzz, will tune in. Should V/M win, that means great momentum for them the rest of the season (Should they lose... see later).
Cost/Risk: The obvious question: what if they lose? Doesn’t matter. They don’t lose all that much for losing to D/W. There’ll be those who worry that it means they’ll never beat them again. Parnoid balderdash. The other idea; will the GPF be scooped a little by this move? Maybe, but not a major worry

What else? Here’s the thing – whichever side thinks they’re giving up the most can bargain a little with other slots. How about SC guaranteeing Castelli/Shanpir and Agnes Zawadski a slot (or whomever SA is worried about). How about SA giving a chance to Rogozine or Mitchell/Islam? In fact, if they federations don’t do something like this, I’ll be a little disappointed (what happened to all the chicanery?!?).

I’m sure I’ve missed dozens of variables, but I think it’d be cool, so why not toss it out there.

7 Through 12
Skate America: Zhiganshina/Gazsi, Cappellini/Lanotte
Skate Canada: Chock/Zuerlein, Carron/Jones
Cup of China: Crone/Poirier, Chock/Zuerlein
NHK: Zhiganshina/Gazsi, Cappellini/Lanotte
TEB: Crone/Poirier, Carron/Jones
Cup of Russia: Ilinykh/Katsalpov, Chock/Zuerlein

Realistically, skaters in this group will want to avoid S/A at all costs if what I’ve predicted happens. Skates Canada and USA will be sure to send their two teams (Chock/Zuerlein, Crone/Poirier elsewhere), whereas federations without much pull will see their skaters sent there. I’ve given Crone/Poirier one neutral and one hostile territory, mainly because I’d like to see them work. It’s do or die time for them this season. If they don’t improve, P/I surpass them either this upcoming season or the one following, they fall out of the top ten and all the hype comes for naught.

I also wonder about Cappellini/Lanotte. I recall doris suggesting that part of the reason they didn’t do as well as expected in the beginning of last season was due to F/S staying on – they felt demoralized that the “Wait-your-turn” game to ascend to national number one was going to take longer. Then of course F/S had their bad season and elected to retire. Then C/L had their best Worlds result ever. Then F/S decided to come back. I think they’re a gorgeous team and would be disappointed if they had further motivation issues next season.

Skate America: 7
Skate Canada: 5
Cup of China: 7
NHK: 5
TEB: 6
Cup of Russia: 5

13 spots left

JGPF/JW medals, Top 24 on WR
Teams that count: Lichtman/Copely, Hoffman/Zavosin, Faiella/Scali, Mysliveckova/Novak, Riazanova/Tkachenko, Pushkash/Guerreiro, Gorshkova/Butikov, Coomes/Buckland, Ralph/Hill
Staying junior more likely: Sinitstina/Zhiganshin, Stepanov/Bukin
Retired: the Kerrs, Hubbell/Hubbell

Skate America: Hoffman/Zavosin
Skate Canada: Lichtman/Copely, Coomes/Buckland
Cup of China: Faiella/Scali
NHK: Gorshkova/Butikov, Rizanova/Tkachenko
TEB: Pushkash/Guerreiro
Cup of Russia: Ralph/Hill, Mysliveckova/Novak

The big thing to note is the number of Russian teams eligible for the GP circuit. This is yet another reason why it’s probably wise to give a host spot to a team that hasn’t earned one via other means.

Skate America: 8
Skate Canada: 7
Cup of China: 8
NHK: 7
TEB: 7
Cup of Russia: 7

4 spots left. Top four scores on SB list where the skaters don’t have a spot already

18. 138.16 Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM
24. 131.01 Isabella TOBIAS / Deividas STAGNIUNAS
28. 128.70 Siobhan HEEKIN-CANEDY / Alexander SHAKALOV
(only three made the cut-off)

Top skaters who only have ONE spot

08. 155.04 Ksenia MONKO / Kirill KHALIAVIN
13. 146.79 Ekaterina RIAZANOVA / Ilia TKACHENKO
14. 145.92 Federica FAIELLA / Massimo SCALI
15. 142.09 Nora HOFFMANN / Maxim ZAVOZIN

It depends on who gets priority. If the substitution list is strictly season best scores with no regards paid to who already has a spot, than the second group of skaters I’ve listed take the final four slots. If they want to give one slot to those without any before those with, than the top group, along with M/K get the four remaining slots.

I suspect the singletons get their second date first. IF that’s the case, again, perhaps SC should give P/I a SC slot ahead of Harvey/Gagnon? It also behoves SC to send teams to Nebelhorn to get those scores up there. Additionally, one benefit of going early in the GP season is that you can get the second score that qualifies you. Looking at it now, I don’t see SC forgoing that. But I’ll leave it alone for now.

 

[chuckm]

Blanc/Bouquet have split.

Also, the ISU has updated the World Ranking list to remove the 2008/2009 data, so all the rankings have changed quite a bit.

http://www.isu.org/vsite/vnavsite/page/directory/0,10853,4844-202933-220156-nav-list,00.html

I don't think the ISU is going to give seeds 3 events right off the bat, at least not Men, Ladies and Dance. Pairs is a sparse discipline due to all the splits and retirements, so that is the one exception. I think for all disciplines, though, the seeds will get first chance at vacancies.

And even if the ISU did let the seeds schedule 3 spots from the getgo, I do not see V/M doing SA and SC back-to-back. Not going to happen!

 

[CARA]

Pogue:

It is true that Hubbell/Hubbell retired?
Also, according to your chart, Chock/Zuerlein skate back to back on SC & CoC? How likely would they do so? Humm...:think:

 

[Mathman]

Realistically, skaters in this group will want to avoid S/A at all costs...

Very depressing. Cowering in the corner because you are afraid to compete against the top teams? What kind of a sport is this? :disagree:

The Grand Prix should just go out of business altogether if everyone is terrified of competition.

 

[janetfan]

Very depressing. Cowering in the corner because you are afraid to compete against the top teams? What kind of a sport is this? :disagree:

The Grand Prix should just go out of business altogether if everyone is terrified of competition.

To be fair we don't know that the skaters feel this way.

We do know that federations manuever to protect certain skaters and that some fans dream of their favorites making the GPF by skating at the least competitive events.

I hope when ISU said they wanted to make skating more like a "real sport" this is not what they had in mind.

Speedy wants more of the top skaters doing three events because attendance is down.

This does make it harder to hide and seems to have upset some of the fans.

What could be better for Men's skating than to get Plushenko at SC this season?

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Blanc/Bouquet have split.

Also, the ISU has updated the World Ranking list to remove the 2008/2009 data, so all the rankings have changed quite a bit.

http://www.isu.org/vsite/vnavsite/page/directory/0,10853,4844-202933-220156-nav-list,00.html

I don't think the ISU is going to give seeds 3 events right off the bat, at least not Men, Ladies and Dance. Pairs is a sparse discipline due to all the splits and retirements, so that is the one exception. I think for all disciplines, though, the seeds will get first chance at vacancies.

And even if the ISU did let the seeds schedule 3 spots from the getgo, I do not see V/M doing SA and SC back-to-back. Not going to happen!

Chuckm - Can you point me to a link that explains how a skater/team get the points for ranking? I really would appreciate that. When I looked at the List of Men, I noticed Contesti was way above so many skaters whom I consider better.

I'm aware that the points are awarded on the basis of placements of all ISU sanctioned competitions. Many of these competitions are considered "B" comps. Others, of course, are the GP entrants (question: do the individual placements get the same points as the Final?), , the Euros, 4CCs, Worlds. any others?.

Another question: at what point of the Listings is the cut off for calling some names as being Seeded? Would it be 6 events x 8 entrants for each division that makes 48?

Thanks again for any help you give me (and others) to understand the use of Seeding. :thumbsup:

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

One other question: While looking over the list of Pairs, I noticed Marley/Brubaker are 48. I remember you mentioned that the cut-off now is 45 not 48. Yes?

I presume, if there are any vacant slots, the next in line will not get a slot but it will be given to Seeded skaters. That I understood, but how is that Seeded skater(s) chosen among so many?

 

[Mathman]

Can you point me to a link that explains how a skater/team get the points for ranking?

On this page, click on Communication 1629 and scroll down to the bottom (page 5) to see how many points a skater gets for various achievements.

http://www.isu.org/vsite/vnavsite/page/directory/0,10853,4844-130267-131575-nav-list,00.html

To see how this works, click on World Standing, then Men Standings.

If you look at Takahashi, he got 840 points for winning Four Continents. Since this was higher that the 787 points he got for finishing 5th at Worlds, he gets the higher amount, 840.

He got 583 points for 4th place in the Grand Prix Finals. He got 400 points for winning an individual Grand Prix event, NHK.

He did not do any B events last year.

So Takahashi’s total points for the 2010-2011 season are 840+583+400 = 1823.

At what point of the Listings is the cut off for calling some names as being Seeded?

The "Seeded" skaters are those that finished in the top six at Worlds. For men, the six seeded skaters are Chan, Kosuka, Gachinski, Brezina, Takahashi and Oda.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Blanc/Bouquet have split.

Also, the ISU has updated the World Ranking list to remove the 2008/2009 data, so all the rankings have changed quite a bit.

http://www.isu.org/vsite/vnavsite/page/directory/0,10853,4844-202933-220156-nav-list,00.html

I don't think the ISU is going to give seeds 3 events right off the bat, at least not Men, Ladies and Dance. Pairs is a sparse discipline due to all the splits and retirements, so that is the one exception. I think for all disciplines, though, the seeds will get first chance at vacancies.

And even if the ISU did let the seeds schedule 3 spots from the getgo, I do not see V/M doing SA and SC back-to-back. Not going to happen!

Yeah, I used the new rankings. I also just decided I wanted V/M to do Skate America.

 

[Sylvia]

It is true that Hubbell/Hubbell retired?

Madison Hubbell & Keiffer Hubbell are currently listed in USFS' 2011-12 International Selection Pool; there's been no official announcement from USFS to date.

While looking over the list of Pairs, I noticed Marley/Brubaker are 48. I remember you mentioned that the cut-off now is 45 not 48. Yes?

Is there a cut-off? There's been some talk about how M/B may not meet the new GP minimum qualifying score for a GP invitation but it's yet not known whether or not this proposed selection criterion will actually be implemented.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Back to back events suck, but aren't uncommon. Jeremy Ten did NHK and SC back to back. I/M did SC and CoC back to back. Asada did TEB and CoR back-to-back in 2009.

The Hubbells have split up. I believe he retired whereas she's skating with someone else.

People aren't terrified of competition. Mao Asada had no problem competing against Yu-Na Kim right off the bat at TEB in the 09/10 season, and that grouping also had Kostner, Nakano and a fairly heavy hitting line-up. But if the goal is to make the GPF, get ranking points that genuinely affect placements next season (for the GP series, as well as where you skate at Worlds), then it does seem that strategizing is beneficial.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

MM - Thanks for the info. It's interesting that the combined total for GP events plus Final can receive more points than the World Champion. That's given me more interest in the GP series as a very valid test for the season. However, I can not think of any skater today who can win both GP events and the GP Final. That would make a good prediction thread.

The "B" competitions do add up, and European skaters take advantage of that. So many non Eur skaters don't bother.

Besides the GP events and Final, how else would this Worlds Standings be used?