SC Predictions
MEN
1. Patrick Chan
2. Daisuke Takakashi
3. Ross Miner
4. Javier Fernandez
5. Adam Rippon
6. Kevin Van der Perren
7. Denis Ten
8. Andrei Rogozine
9. Alexander Majorov
10. Elladj Balde
Balde is the only one who hasn’t made the minimum score, so I assume he’ll be last. Between the new to seniors, Rogozine beat Majorov at WJs, so I’ll stick with that, though Rogozine clean (as in 4-3, two 3As clean) will make things VERY interesting. Then it gets tricky. Van de Perren is one of those skaters people seem to like despite his general lack of figure skating talent (not to be confused with jumping, something he does well). I quite enjoy him when he skates well – not so much for his programs, but for his exuberance after. So I hope he does do well. But I hope the five ahead of him skate much better.
Rippon tends to start out the season AMAZINGLY. His bronze medal at TEB. His JO last season. But then he peters out. If his move to Dunjien/Sato is successful, then it’s likely he won’t be as gangbusters to start with anyway. Should be interesting to see his PCS compared to the rest of the gang. So between Fernandez and Miner for the bronze medal, I went with Miner. Fernandez is still getting his feet together, finding a style, with his new coaching situation. He’s going for a quad in both programs, so if he lands them, I think he’ll be bronze. But I don’t think he’ll get everything together quite so quickly, so Miner gets the bronze, who’ll be afire to prove that last season’s success was no fluke.
Takahashi slots nicely in for the silver medal. His weaknesses will be more strongly felt in the LP than the SP, so a strong SP skate (and it’s a nice program too) will allow the judges to hold him up a bit (if indeed it comes to that) in the LP.
LADIES
1. Akiko Suzuki
2. Mirai Nagasu
3. Elizaveta Tuktamisheva
4. Alena Leonova
5. Cynthia Phaneuf
6. Ashley Wagner
7. Sarah Hecken
8. Rachel Flatt
9. Amelie LaCoste
10. Adriana Desanctis
Replace Balde with Desanctis. Phaneuf through LaCoste is basically one scramble. Leonova seems ready to challenge here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she does.
So it’s really the top three that’s up for debate. Mirai, oh Mirai. By all accounts, a really nice person and a talented figure skater. Her Olympic debut was a respectable fourth. She beat Kim and Asada in the SP at worlds. Clearly someone who, when at the top of her game, can be among the best. But she so rarely follows through. We’ve heard about her lack of work ethic and cavalier approach to training. It’s now or never time: if she doesn’t kick it into gear, she’ll be left behind. I’m rather expecting that. Between Tut and Akiko, I’m predicting Akiko due to PCS and the short program in general.
PAIRS
1. Volosozhar/Trankov
2. Duhamel/Radford
3. Sui/Han
4. Takahashi/Tran
5. Iliushechkina/Maisuradze
6. Lawrence/Swiegers
7. Dube/Wolfe
8. Yu/Jin
Base value should keep S/H on the podium.
DANCE
1. Virtue/Moir
2. Weaver/Poje
3. Riazanova/Tkachenko
4. Cappellini/Lanotte
5. Chock/Bates
6. Pushkash/Guerreiro
7. Harvey/Gagnon
C/L get left behind this season, it’ll start here. Though they look sharp.
