State of US Ladies in skating III: 2014-15 Season

[Mrs. P]

Actually from Nationals 2013 until the end of that season while Ashley won all 3 times they met Wagner was barely hanging on to win. After Nationals Ashley won by only about 3 points at Worlds and at the WTT to end the season despite skating her best LP of the season Gracie still would have beaten Wagner if she hadn't doubled her last triple jump and lost by .57 points. Ashley knew that Gracie while only in her 1st season as a Senior was already knocking on the door. I believe it was Gold pushing her more then the Russians that made her start doing the 3-3's no doubt Ashley knew getting beaten domestically at home was going to make it next to impossible to even think about medaling at Worlds or the Olympics if she was number 2 in the US which is of course what happened anyways.

As I said, we saw a preview of what was to come at the end of 2013, but a win's a win and Ashley still had the edge over her. And then Gracie had a very subpar GP season that fall, barely getting bronze at one event and missing the podium at the other. Meanwhile, Ashley got gold and silver in her events and collected bronze at GPF (though her FS was a hot mess and saved by Adelina Sotnitkova's even bigger mess of a FS).

Nationals 2014 was probably the perfect storm, Gracie got a new coach, a new and improved SP (though I'm in the minority that I liked the old one, as our now-departed friend Ziggy did ) and some much refinement in the packaging. Meanwhile Ashley was struggling greatly with her R&J FS and just was on a downward spiral which started in the FS at GPF. Also the pressure of not missing out after missing out in 2010 caused her to, well, almost miss out in 2014 (we know that whole story...). Nationals 2014 was the first time Gracie beat Ashley and quite definitively at that.

Gracie was at her level best at Nationals and in Sochi while Ashley continue to struggle with URs in her 3-3. This continued at Worlds, but then Ashley saw a glimmer of light when she did well in the FS.

This season is almost the opposite of last season. Gracie struggled early, as she typically does, but she still managed to win NHK while Ashley had to settle for bronze and silver. Gracie then had a setback with her injury. Meanwhile, Ashley slowly and surely built up her arsenal. At Skate Canada people wondered if she was just making do with easier content due to her flutz, then at Trophee Eric Bompard she goes and completely surprises everyone by doing a 3Z-3T at the end after falling on the 3F-3T (though that was UR) and of course the big surprise was her GPF FS, where she rose from last to podium.

IN the end, we are clearly in agreement that the Gracie played a big role in pushing Ashley to challenge herself.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

IN the end, we are clearly in agreement that the Gracie played a big role in pushing Ashley to challenge herself.

Absolutely. Before Gracie stole the spotlight, Ashley was content to avoid the 3/3 until big competitions. Now she has to be prepared to execute it anytime she shares the ice with Gracie.

 

[Jammers]

Absolutely. Before Gracie stole the spotlight, Ashley was content to avoid the 3/3 until big competitions. Now she has to be prepared to execute it anytime she shares the ice with Gracie.

True. Without Gracie Ashley would be winning National titles without probably even trying the 3-3 and then scrambling to get it before Worlds which very rarely ever works.

 

[kwanatic]

True. Without Gracie Ashley would be winning National titles without probably even trying the 3-3 and then scrambling to get it before Worlds.

Exactly. Gracie forced Ashley out of her comfort zone and it has made her a better skater. Hopefully Ashley stepping up her game is going to push Gracie to step up as well. I don't doubt that Gracie can be better than she is. Seeing that Ashley has closed the gap should push Gracie to find a way to put some distance between them again.

 

[R.D.]

This is what's so great about a high-level domestic rivalry. The US has lacked one since the Kwan vs. Cohen days...Nationals has since been a free-for-all, last-one-left-standing type of event and the winning performances would barely muster top 10 on the world level.

And Wagner herself was content with playing it safe for a while, then trying to go all out at worlds and failing...sure, there was Kim/Asada/etc. at worlds but there's nothing like a fellow American that can outjump and outscore you in your own back yard. Last year was Wagner's wake-up call that if she didn't step it up, she'd get left behind not only internationally, but DOMESTICALLY as well. So credit to her for stepping it up, and US skating will be better for it. Now Gold suddenly finds herself the runner-up and I'm sure it will push HER to become better and not play it safe. This rivalry hopefully leads to both girls becoming more competitive on the world level and ending our drought. That's what's been happening in Russia for a couple of years now, glad to see it finally beginning to happen in the US too.

ETA: It seems Wagner's critics also had a hand in pushing her. I think she wants to make her mark and takes it personally when people count her out or don't take her seriously in a competition. The GPF was a good example - 1st time she did 2 3-3 combos in a program!

 

[Ophelia]

Just watched Karen Chens nationals performances. HOLY FFF!!! My mouth was half open and I got shivers! We are finally looking at the next star hailing from the U.S.!!! The girl has IT in spades, along with interpretive ability, speed, attack, flexibility, and spins. :shocked:

 

[lilshorty]

I remember posting last year that Karen Chen is the real deal. I'm glad that she had two great skates at Nationals and that more people are starting to figure out just how wonderful her skating is.

 

[nguyhm]

I love her speed. It's so exciting to see her moving so fast yet so airy across the ice, especially with that tiny frame. I'm a fan

 

[Jammers]

Hopefully she grows a few inches so she doesn't look so Juniorish she doesn't look much taller then last season. I think her jumps might survive since they are much bigger and have more pop to them then some of the Russian girls who barely get off the ice.

 

[apgold]

And she doesn't overuse her 'tano jumps either, like some of the young Russians we could name, lol.

She really is tiny at 4'10, but she skates so big. Kind of like Radionova before her growth spurt. Her Biellmann reminds me of Radionova's, too.

 

[Jammers]

The tano needs to be outlawed except in the case of non Russian skaters since they don't use it to death.

 

[Globetrotter]

Just watched Karen Chens nationals performances. HOLY FFF!!! My mouth was half open and I got shivers! We are finally looking at the next star hailing from the U.S.!!! The girl has IT in spades, along with interpretive ability, speed, attack, flexibility, and spins. :shocked:

Agree 200%. Previously I thought Polina Edmunds will be the next but Karen Chen just blew it all. She may be small but skates big, fast and has good edge work on par with Satoko Miyahara but much bigger jumps. Hopefully the puberty monster won't kill it. And that layback spin into the Biellmann will match that of Radionova and Yulia Lip. And at least she doesn't backload and overtano her jumps unlike Medvedeva (lovely skater but horrible choreo and layout).

 

[R.D.]

It's impossible to call these things. Chen may very well make a name for herself but she could also be the next Caroline Zhang...lots of promise, no meat.

She is still a little girl - we will see if she can maintain all that through the next couple of years.

Similarly, I wonder how long Wagner and/or Gold will control the US scene - I do hope the rivalry continues, it could bring us more classics like last week. But I fear one or both will not be able to keep up the level and the scene will look completely different by 2018.

 

[R.D.]

Quick numbers - Wagner vs. Gold

Only takes into account competitions where they competed directly against each other
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US nationals: Wagner leads 2-1 (2013 - Wagner 1, Gold 2; 2014 - Gold 1, Wagner 4; 2015 - Wagner 1, Gold 2)

Worlds/Olympics: Gold leads 2-1 (2013 - Wagner 5, Gold 6; 2014O: Gold 4, Wagner 7; 2014W - Gold 5, Wagner 7)

(This tells me Wagner has the overall edge domestically, while Gold has the advantage internationally - this could play out in the next couple months)
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If we added up the total placements to a cumulative number, where a lower number is better (higher placement):

Wagner: 1+4+1+5+7+7 = 25

Gold: 2+1+2+6+4+5 = 20

(Gold comes out ahead here: the two 7th place finishes by Wagner added quite a bit to her total)
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If we do it by total victories (a victory in this case meaning placing above the other)

Wagner 3 (2013 & 2015 Nationals; 2013 Worlds)
Gold 3 (2014 Nationals, 2014 Olympics, 2014 Worlds)

(This tells me that Wagner was ahead in 2013, got surpassed by Gold in 2014, and then caught up again in 2015 - essentially, they are quite evenly matched)
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If we do it by average score, by segment - and separating National scores since they are not compatible with international ones:

SP, National: Wagner 68.11, Gold 64.41
FS, National: Wagner 129.36, Gold 136.86

Total: Wagner 197.47, Gold 201.27

(Gold bombed the SP in 2013 and that really torpedoed her average - otherwise it's close to 70! As for the FS, Gold is much more consistent and much stronger - Wagner's stratospheric score in 2015 bumps up her average significantly, but not enough to make up for mediocre efforts in 2013 and 2014. But how interesting that although Gold has the higher average OVERALL National score, Wagner still has 2 wins to Gold's 1)

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SP, International: Wagner 64.28, Gold 65.93
FS, International: Wagner 126.96, Gold 128.86

Total: Wagner 191.24, Gold 194.79

(OK, this one is perhaps the most eye-opening - although Gold placed ahead 2 of the 3 times they met, it wasn't by much. These two skaters are quite evenly matched; important factors in the averages are that while Wagner consistently scores 63-64 in the SP, Gold has a 68, a 70 and a 58(!), from 2013. Although Gold did considerably better in the SP in 2014 events, that 58 drags her average back down to near Wagner's level. As for the freeskate, again Wagner's scores are consistent in the 120s. So are Gold's - at least at Worlds. The 136.90 Gold got in Sochi is the only reason her FS average is higher!)

^ Also, note the difference in both cases - Gold has a higher overall average both domestically and internationally, but it's not by much - difference is 3.8 pts nationally and 3.55 pts internationally!
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Conclusion: Once the performances are taken into account, my personal judgment is that Gold is the better skater, but her overall inability to compete under pressure evens the game between her and Wagner. Wagner isn't as high a point-getter, but overall she posts more consistent scores.

 

[Layfan]

It's impossible to call these things. Chen may very well make a name for herself but she could also be the next Caroline Zhang...lots of promise, no meat.

She is still a little girl - we will see if she can maintain all that through the next couple of years.

Similarly, I wonder how long Wagner and/or Gold will control the US scene - I do hope the rivalry continues, it could bring us more classics like last week. But I fear one or both will not be able to keep up the level and the scene will look completely different by 2018.

Well, her technique isn't atrocious like Caroline's was and she already looks less juniorish than Mirai did at that age... even though she still needs a bit more polish. I just hope she grows long and lean. It's hard to see so many ladies be peak at such a young age. Skating really is much kinder to the men in that sense. Puberty works in their favor.

 

[Mrs. P]

My take is to just say, great job Karen and hope you keep growing (in skill!).

 

[kwanatic]

Just watched Karen Chens nationals performances. HOLY FFF!!! My mouth was half open and I got shivers! We are finally looking at the next star hailing from the U.S.!!! The girl has IT in spades, along with interpretive ability, speed, attack, flexibility, and spins. :shocked:

I've been on the the Karen Chen train for a while. I remember her blowing me away with her exhibition at nationals in 2012 and then again last year with her SP. She's definitely got a lot of pluses in her column but I want to be cautiously optimistic about her. I love her speed, her jumps are big, her spins are gorg, and on top of it all she's got that ability to carry her music and bring it to life...she's definitely a little star.

I'm hoping she gets through puberty okay. At only 4'10", she's likely to grow another 3 to 5 inches (or more) in the next few years and she's already prone to URs on her 3-3 combos. My fingers are crossed she gets past the puberty monster and retains her jumps. She has solid technique (though she does "lip" sometimes) but overall, I think she's got a solid base moving forward.

Cautious optimism. That's what we all need to have. I just hope people don't pounce on her the way they did Gracie.hwell:

 

[Jammers]

Gracie never really had a chance to develop at her own pace. The hype started so fast before she hardly even had any competitions under her belt even. Maybe it was because 3 years ago the US Ladies were lackluster and she could actually out jump the top Senior US ladies who had bad technique or were headcases and she was knocking out 3-3's that the top Senior Ladies internationally weren't doing and she wasn't a 4'10 70lb waif unlike today's Juniors.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Conclusion: Once the performances are taken into account, my personal judgment is that Gold is the better skater, but her overall inability to compete under pressure evens the game between her and Wagner. Wagner isn't as high a point-getter, but overall she posts more consistent scores.

I think we all know this to be the case. But I'm sure if we did a similar analysis with Lipnitskaia vs. Radionova, we'd see that Lipnitskaia posts higher scores but isn't as consistent as Radionova, but Radionova is more reliable. And at this point, people would wager Radionova over Lipnitskaia, similar to wagering Wagner over Gold (funny enough, at the end of last year many people said Lipnitskaia and Gold would dominate over Radionova and Wagner this season ). The issue with Gold is the vast majority of her freeskates has a major error (usually a fall), which causes her to drop after doing well in the SP.

 

[R.D.]

Yes, and Wagner has the opposite, more critical problem: she doesn't put herself in a good position after the SP so even with excellent free skates, she can't make up enough ground. This has been the story of her career.

I was surprised to see how close it really is between the two of them, especially last year because I had the impression that Gold had surpassed her for good. But Wagner has really raised the stakes this year, quickly catching up on the tech side while maintaining her (slight) advantage on consistency. Never thought I'd say this but Gold may need to think about stepping things up on HER end or risk being surpassed...mainly, that is learning how to put 2 clean programs together, she can't afford the little mistakes and falls...