Joe,
It seems the list is based on last year's worlds, and partly on talent. I agree with about 80% of the list.
IMO there are two ways to look at this- A)what these skaters are capable of when they are healthy, and B)what is expected of them, given the recent injuries.
In either case, I agree with the top 2 spots (Yes, Plushenko is #1, even with an injured knee).
A.First, here is my list of the top 7 assuming they are healthy.
1.Plushenko
2.Joubert
3.Goebel
4.Klimkin (he may move upto #3 under COP)
5.Lambiel
6.Weir
7.Sandhu (inconsistency will always rank him low, but at any given competition he is always a threat to medal).
B.Now, given the current situation:
I would have moved down Lindeman to #4 or even #5. I believe his bronze in Dortmund was due to the homefield advantage. He is a respectable skater, but I don't see him as a top 3 skater. However, so many skaters are either injured or been inconsistent, that I have to give this spot to Lindeman right now. I do expect him to slip to #5 this season.
It is hard for me to place Lambiel at #3 even if healthy, because I have not seen a consistently strong performance from him. So the #3 spot is really up for grabs. He has had an injury and surgery, so I don't know how he will skate when he returns. I will place him at #7 for now.
I would move Goebel higher- to 4th, simply because he is capable of so much, technically. He is one of the few that can outquad the top 2 (Plushenko and Joubert). I know, I know- quads are not everything, and under the COP the in betweens would be important, but I honestly don't see any major changes in the mens skating under COP. They will always emphasize jumps (and now the spins, to some extent). I do believe that a healthy Goebel belongs in the #3 spot, unless challenged by Lambiel or Sandhu with a strong performance.
That said, I would move Johnny Weir to #5, based on the overall quality of his skating, and assuming that he has a quad in his repertoire by now. If he lands a quad combination, he could challenge (healthy) Goebel, Lambiel, and Lindeman for the #3 spot.
As much as I love Klimkin, I would not place him in the top 6 at this time. He has had so many injuries that I don't know what he is capable of anymore. He could be another Abt- wonderfully artistic, but plagued by injuries throughout his career. Everytime he skated great, next time he was injured. It is heartbreaking but I would not even put him in the top 12 until I have seen him skate again, which would be next year. However, if he was healthy (pure imagination) and skating what he is capable of, I would place him at #3 without hesitation.
Where does Sandhu stand? I think you were right in placing him in the second group. However, assuming that Klimkin is injured and out until next year, I would move him to the #6 spot, although he could place anywhere between 3 and 9.
I was surprised that you placed Honda in the 13-18 group. I would have placed him in the top 12 (may be #10), but he must have skated really poorly in the most recent competition to make you place him that low. Like Klimkin, he has battled injuries.
So here are my changes.
I would move Klimkin to the last group (#13).
Move Honda to #12 (at least he is still skating)
The top 7 would look like this, given the current situation:
1.Plushenko
2.Joubert
3.Lindeman
4.Goebel
5.Weir
6.Sandhu
7.Lambiel
It is surprising that none of the Chinese skaters made my list in either case. I have not seen them deliver a complete program from beginning to end, in terms of both jumps and presentation. So I had to move them down.
That's how I see it.
Vash