U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

[janetfan]

Let's not forget that at 2009 Nats, a 7-T performance from Rachel lost to a sub-par Alyssa FS. They could have given Flatt the title in 2009 but they didn't.

Did you forget how Alissa spanked Rachael and the others in the SP? A competition is more than just the LP.

 

[Layfan]

Because that performance from Rachael had nothing going for at all except the triples. And Alissa had a big SP lead. Apparently Rachael agreed as she ditched that program for worlds.

I think Rachael is much better than that FS in 2009, though.

I don't think her choreo from this year hits it out the park but it does her much justice than last year's and certainly 2009. I have to say, her programs this year have kept me watching. To be blunt, I couldn't stand to watch her FS from last year. But I'm actually looking forward to watching Rachael at nationals this year.

 

[R.D.]

Did you forget how Alissa spanked Rachael and the others in the SP? A competition is more than just the LP.

The lead was around 5 points- and if Alyssa stood up she'd have won convincingly. But she made enough mistakes in the FS (while the others went clean) to raise ?s.

 

[NMURA]

RD it becomes a matter of are the US jugdes propping her up or are the Intl judges holding her down.
Let's go back. Flatt got away with a UR in her Olympics SP. They nailed her for two in her LP. Flatt had all kinds of troubles at Worlds and was nailed for URs. At NHK wasn't Flatt nailed again for URs in her SP and LP? And we saw it again at SA.

In the Olympic SP, I remember
Kim's 3-3, Asada's flip, Flatt's lutz, Ando's 3-3 and flip were all underrotated.

I suspect the technical panel took the stance to overlook when there's only one but not two. The calls in the FS ws more inconsistent (arbitrary). Flatt's near perfect FS at SA lead to Kim's splatfest (Rochette is also very vulnerable). They wanted to avoid that to happen. IF Mirai was in Flatt's position (skating order) she could be the one dinged.

 

[silverlake22]

Lo and behold Rachael, Alissa and Mirai have been our last three champions.
I think there's a reason for that.
If the three skate perfectly this is how I predict they will finish:
1. Mirai
2. Alissa
3. Rachael

I think there is a chance that if Gao is clean the judges will go gaga and rank her over Rachael, however. I don't know if that would be fair but it's just a feeling.

This is why I think Gao has a good shot at winning the title, because she has been skating really well this season and is usually consistent with her jumps, I think she could make the judges go gaga and that they would put her ahead of Flatt. Both Nagasu and Czisny skating is a huge if, and I tend to think if they are less than perfect, a clean Flatt and clean Gao could edge them out. So I tend to think Rachael and Christina will skate well, because they pretty much always skate well, and then I will guess that either Mirai or Alissa, but not both, will skate well, and the outcome will end up looking something like this:

If Mirai/Alissa goes clean, Christina and Rachael go clean, Ashley skates as usual, Alissa/Mirai has issues:

1.) Mirai/Alissa
2.) Christina
3.) Rachael
4.) Ashley
5.) Alissa/Mirai

But say one of Alissa or Mirai has issues, and the other one skates well, but not perfectly, then I think we could see:

1.) Christina
2.) Rachael
3.) Mirai/Alissa
4.) Ashley
5.) Alissa/Mirai

 

[Layfan]

Why hasn't Rachael chosen to include a layback spin in her FS?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsAIphySczg

I don't get any of the spin-position choices. It's out of my league to suggest anything, and I obviously don't know what Rachael can and can't do... But I don't know, what about an illusion spin? Or layback spin changing arm and maybe leg positions a few times? What about that spin Michelle used to with her leg crossed behind her on the ice. What is it called, a crossover spin? Maybe it doesn't get as many points in COP... but cutting back the bad spin positions might help improve Rachael's P/E mark.

At least her scratch spin is faster this year.

What do like about this program is that the soaring quality of the music suits her sense of freedom when she skates. I also like her ending footwork since it's not about the footwork itself - like last year's - but about entertaining the audience.

These are very little things but about 2 minutes and a half into her program I wish she would turn her wrist around when she puts one hand on her waist. I like the hand-on-the waist bit because it's cute and flirty but the way she does it makes it look like she has back pain. She should do it wrist-forward. And use it more. I don't know, maybe a haughty expression would help.

Also, at the beginning the shotgun thing is too gimmicky for my taste but I think it would be better if she had a more tragic than surprised reaction.

 

[Mathman]

Did you forget how Alissa spanked Rachael and the others in the SP? A competition is more than just the LP.

The lead was around 5 points- and if Alyssa stood up she'd have won convincingly. But she made enough mistakes in the FS (while the others went clean) to raise ?s.

...the main question being, why did Alissa's PCSs shoot up so miraculously between her short program (which was good) and her long program (which was bad)?

In the short program, Alissa had total PCS of 27.77 -- an average of 6.94 for each component, before factoring. This is not too far off Rachael's score of 26.17, an average of 6.54. (Mirai and Ashley, down in 6th and 12th places because of mistakes on jumps, had PCSs of 26.62 and 25.66 respectively.)

Alissa's big lead over Rachael in the short program came on GOEs on elements, where Alissa had positive GOEs across the board and Rachael's were almost all 0's.

But then in the long, Alissa's PCS shot up to a whopping 60.63 (average 7.58) -- just what she needed to make up for lower TES and lower GOEs on botched elements and keep her in third place behind Ashley and Rachael in the LP, and first overall.

So the question is, was Alissa's long program so much better than her short that she deserved a raise from under 7.00 to over 7.50 in average PCS?

To further compare apples to apples, double the PCSs for the SP.

Rachael: SP 52.34, LP 53.31
Alissa: SP 55.54, LP 60.63

 

[Layfan]

...the main question being, why did Alissa's PCSs shoot up so miraculously between her short program (which was good) and her long program (which was bad)?

In the short program, Alissa had total PCS of 27.77 -- an average of 6.94 for each component, before factoring. This is not too far off Rachael's score of 26.17, an average of 6.54. (Mirai and Ashley, down in 6th and 12th places because of mistakes on jumps, had PCSs of 26.62 and 25.66 respectively.)

Alissa's big lead over Rachael in the short program came on GOEs on elements, where Alissa had positive GOEs across the board and Rachael's were almost all 0's.

But then in the long, Alissa's PCS shot up to a whopping 60.63 (average 7.58) -- just what she needed to make up for lower TES and lower GOEs on botched elements and keep her in third place behind Ashley and Rachael in the LP, and first overall.

So the question is, was Alissa's long program so much better than her short that she deserved a raise from under 7.00 to over 7.50 in average PCS?

To further compare apples to apples, double the PCSs for the SP.

Rachael: SP 52.34, LP 53.31
Alissa: SP 55.54, LP 60.63

Huh. Interesting points. Maybe another question is why on earth Rachael and Alissa were nearly tied in PCS in the short.
Alissa's SP was one of the most exquisite I've seen. Beats me why her PCS weren't higher.

 

[janetfan]

Huh. Interesting points. Maybe another question is why on earth Rachael and Alissa were nearly tied in PCS in the short.
Alissa's SP was one of the most exquisite I've seen. Beats me why her PCS weren't higher.

Funny, and I agree with you - but it feels like math was not saying that. He wonders why Alissa's pcs went up in the LP while you and I wonder why Rachel's were so close to Alissa's in the SP.....

 

[Nadine]

In re-remembering Skate America, I have a few suggestions/constructive criticisms that Rachael can work on:

a.) her spins, LOVED the very last blur spin, excellent! However, I especially noticed how slow she was going into the donut spin (one of my fav spins btw, as it was synonymous with Oksana Baiul, her signature spin in fact), so even though I actually like how much stretch & bend Rachael gets on this spin when she eventually gets into it, the slow speed going into it was noticeable. Also, her sit spin doesn't attain a fully stretched out leg imho nor posture. But what was worse is the martini spin (Rudy Galindo's signature spin btw), as it doesn't show off either good line, stretch in the free leg, or speed.

Therefore, my suggestion would be to definitely KEEP the blur spin, that was excellent! But replace the other spins with others that show off her speed most of all, just as the blur spin does, but do not emphasize her weakness (lack of stretch in the free leg & bend in the back). So I've been trying to think which other three spins she can add, hmmm, perhaps some classic old-fashioned spins that she can make new again. After all classic figure skating spins were never meant to be about turning oneself into a pretzel or injuring one's back if one was not naturally flexible. It was more about speed, edge quality, spinning on a dime, and showing good posture & line while maintaining the spin. So maybe the headless spin (Denise Biellmann's were the absolute best in the business!). And perhaps the one where Michelle Kwan's feet were crossed as she was looking upward & had one arm raised upward as well? The broken leg spin is unique as well, another possibility. Hmmm, I'll have to think of more...

b.) Rachael needs to work on her stretch, posture, and line so that when she gets into a sit spin her leg is fully stretched & her back is straight/upright (look at some old tapes of Michelle Kwan's). Same goes for the martini spin.

c.) She absolutely most definitely without a doubt N-E-E-D-S to add a consistent 3/3 combo. to her repertoire. Without that I unfortunately don't see her winning a World medal of any color. Because others in the world are better than her when it comes to the spins & better stretch/line/posture (ala Lepisto). But what she has over ALL of them is consistency/mental toughness, and the ability to do 7-triple LPs under extreme pressure. But they won't give her a medal unless she also has a 3/3 combo. as well. She's not the only one is f.s. history that has had to rely on her TES moreso than her PCS. So I say deal with it, and work on it, which she already seems to be doing.

These are what she most needs to work on imho. One thing at a time. And of course it's a given most skaters need to work on their stroking & speed, to go from fast to faster. But right now I'll settle for her accomplishing the above before anything else.


ps: sorry about saying caca on here in my post that was edited, will try to mind my p & q's from now on, as I know this is a family board & the little ones read it, my apologies everyone.

 

[silverlake22]

Rachael has a 2a-3t in her LP, so I tend to think that's ok because she's still fitting in 7 triples, but in the SP, yeah she needs a 3-3 or else she's going to be stuck with marks in the low 50s in the SP which won't cut it internationally.

 

[Mathman]

Alissa and Rachael are competing against each other right now on Improv on Ice on NBC!

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Regarding the PC scores. There are 5 Components (I believe they all have the same weight) and each one has its own criteria.

1. Transitions Linking footwork and Movements

2. Skating Skills

3. Performance/Execution

4. Choreograph/Composition

5. Interpretation

The criteria set out for each of the above is for judges to select what they deem appropriate. They may leave out criteria for some skaters who could use certain criteria for their scores.

It's difficult to ascertain what each judge used for the criteria. So a discussion on Rachael and Alyssa is not definitive. Look at it as a consensus of opinion of the judges. No way can we see what the criteria was used for each skater. More than likely the criteria was different.

 

[Mathman]

Putting on my all-seeing mind-reading cap, I think what went through the judges subconscious minds was something like this.

In the short program, you really don’t know what to expect, either from the skaters or from the other judges. So you tend to be cautious in giving out scores in the most subjective areas, like P&E ad INT. You don’t want an errant score in Choreography to end up taking someone out of contention prematurely.

Plus, the short program is supposed to be the technical program, so again, you don’t want to go too crazy in terms of the spread for component scores.

So you give Alissa, the top skater in terms of PCSs, 7.0’s. You give Mirai a mixture of 6.5’s and 6.75’s, you give Rachael straight 6.5’s, and Wagner and Zhang a little less.

Now comes the long program. Alissa has skated beautifully and made no jump mistakes for the entire short program and the first half of the long. Go Alissa!

Oh no, she fell a couple of times at the end. But she did better than I feared she would, and she skated lights out except for the jumps. She already lost points in TES, so I’d better up the PCSs to make sure she gets the placement she deserves. 7.5’s ought to do it.

(OK, that’s not what the judges were thinking. That’s what I was thinking.)

 

[Layfan]

In re-remembering Skate America, I have a few suggestions/constructive criticisms that Rachael can work on:

a.) her spins, LOVED the very last blur spin, excellent! However, I especially noticed how slow she was going into the donut spin (one of my fav spins btw, as it was synonymous with Oksana Baiul, her signature spin in fact), so even though I actually like how much stretch & bend Rachael gets on this spin when she eventually gets into it, the slow speed going into it was noticeable. Also, her sit spin doesn't attain a fully stretched out leg imho nor posture. But what was worse is the martini spin (Rudy Galindo's signature spin btw), as it doesn't show off either good line, stretch in the free leg, or speed.

Therefore, my suggestion would be to definitely KEEP the blur spin, that was excellent! But replace the other spins with others that show off her speed most of all, just as the blur spin does, but do not emphasize her weakness (lack of stretch in the free leg & bend in the back). So I've been trying to think which other three spins she can add, hmmm, perhaps some classic old-fashioned spins that she can make new again. After all classic figure skating spins were never meant to be about turning oneself into a pretzel or injuring one's back if one was not naturally flexible. It was more about speed, edge quality, spinning on a dime, and showing good posture & line while maintaining the spin. So maybe the headless spin (Denise Biellmann's were the absolute best in the business!). And perhaps the one where Michelle Kwan's feet were crossed as she was looking upward & had one arm raised upward as well? The broken leg spin is unique as well, another possibility. Hmmm, I'll have to think of more...

This is the one I was suggesting, too, although I wonder if it's not a point-getter. Not that I myself care but just wondering if that is why not many skaters use it. ITA about the old-fashioned spins - especially the layback, which Rachael does well. I'm at a loss over why she doesn't use it in her LP. She could try different arm positions in the layback, too, like Michelle did, and maybe even try changing arm positions during the spin. Or maybe not. That is probably a lot more difficult that it sounds, now I think on it. It probably requires you being a very well centered and fast spinner in the first place to be able to hold your core body position and keep spinning even while changing your arm and feet position. I absolutely loved Sasha's laybacks for that reason.

As for her sit spin, I can't help but think that Rachael is well-aware of what it is supposed to look like and that she isn't quite there. I'm sure she already works on her stretch as much as she can but sometimes there is only so much you can do about the way your body is built....

I liked her scratch spin too. I don't know if it was excellent - not quite a blur - but it was very nice and she should definitely keep it and it was a good idea to end with it. At first I thought, why is Rachael ending with a spin combo if that it her weakness? But the scratch spin was nice. Maybe with more speed into the combo she could hold her donut longer. It was one of her better spins but it lasted about a half-second and I would have liked her to hold it a bit longer.


ETA: I just saw from the thread on Improve on Ice:

http://www.cold-eeze.com/vote/index.html

Look at Sasha's spin-combo. Could Rachael do something similar? Obviously, she's not going to match Sasha's line, I'm not saying that. But I think Rachael could look pretty good doing that layback with the arm movements and the rest of the combo.


ETA:
Look at Rachael's first spin combo:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1VaBNhfBSc
It's very nice! Why oh why doesn't she use that?

Come to think of it, her Tiffany SP is still one my favorites for her and I guess it's not all that shocking that she and Alissa were closer on PCS in the 2009 SP than they were in the FS.

 

[Nadine]

Interesting suggestions, Layfan, followed up with links to prove your point.

I totally agree about the arm variations Sasha uses in her layback spin. In fact this is one of the reasons why I so admired Sasha because she would "invent" new spin positions or more importantly make new old spins with her own special little touches, like the arm variations. There's this one spin she did during her Swan Lake program where she had one arm behind her back then somehow managed to grab that arm with her other arm while turning it all into a blur spin. It ranks as one of my all-time favorite spins, if not #1, for me. And unfortunately I recall she only did it a few times.

Okay, back to Rachael, I love the idea of her adding interesting & beautiful arm variations to her layback spin.

Btw, I too loved her Tiffany SP (& costume as well!), but the LP she originally had just did not suit her whatsoever, which is why I'm glad she changed it to an oldie but goodie. ^) That said, I liked the first combo. you mentioned except for the cannonball sit spin (her classic camel spin was gorgeous though), and also I enjoyed the second spin combo. except I wonder if the judges might take points off because her back is not bent like some of the contortionist spinners out there. The one spin I would suggest she NEVER do is the one she closed with in the aforementioned video.

Now I can't wait to see what new spin variations Rachael might come up with...

 

[Sylvia]

I thought this question posted today in another thread is relevant to this thread:

If one of the two American ladies, Alissa Czisny or Rachael Flatt, medals at the Grand Prix Final this year, will that give them a leg up heading into U.S. Nationals?

 

[dorispulaski]

I think the one of the two that finishes ahead at the GPF might have some advantage (and maybe both), especially if by some chance, one or both won a medal. If you look over time, skaters at the GPF have a sudden PCS boost vs their previous outings. That seems to carry forward into nationals.

This would not necessarily affect Alissa's scores so much, since she already gets very high PCS marks. If Rachael's PCS marks go up at GPF, that might be a breakthrough for her.

 

[R.D.]

Well, it didn't work for Wagner last year, so I'm going to say the playing field should pretty much be even.

 

[Mathman]

^ The wording in the uSFSA documents says that placement in the Grand Prix Finals results can be taken into account in selection of the worlds team. Ashley got fourth.

If she had won, that might have given her a couple of extra points in, say, Interpretation at U.S. nationals. The judges might have thought, gosh, the international judges really like her, who am I to say her interpretation is lousy?