U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

[Layfan]

How they finish at Worlds also determines how many skaters qualify for the next Worlds.

Before Bob's point was that Caroline should have been atleast Silver in '08, and Alissa should have been third. He meant Rachael and Caroline should have been the US Natl team and Alissa should have stayed home.

Thus my reply to him: Go Caroline

Oh. Sorry Bob!!:

 

[PolymerBob]

I don't understand. You are saying the 2009 podium should have been 1. Rachael. 2. Ashley. 3. Alissa?

Yes, Janetfan is correct.

 

[Layfan]

How they finish at Worlds also determines how many skaters qualify for the next Worlds.

Before Bob's point was that Caroline should have been atleast Silver in '08, and Alissa should have been third. He meant Rachael and Caroline should have been the US Natl team and Alissa should have stayed home.

Thus my reply to him: Go Caroline

ETA: You left off Nancy's Silver in '94

oh yeah! I can't believe I forgot Nancy Kerrigan..

 

[janetfan]

Yes, Janetfan is correct.

Not to mention Caroline beat both Alissa and Rachael at 4cc that season. Or that Caroline beat Rachael again at WTT.
Or that Caroline won Bronze at last year's 4CC. What did the other's win?

OK Bob

Go Caroline!

 

[FlattFan]

Yes, but unfortunately, Miki withdrew during her LP, plus she was the reigning World champion, which makes it even sadder.

You asked me where I got the idea that Ashley might not make the LP from. I answered, she was injured and skipped Jr. World. If Miki couldn't handle it in 2008, what made you think Ashley (instead of Flatt) can get back 3 spots? I don't think my response was that confusing. Maybe I should clarify myself more.

So share a few thoughts about your favorite and let's see what others think.

I've said before and I still stand behind what I said.
Rachael is still the #1 US girl.
Mirai/Ashley for the second spot.
Alisa is done.
Agnes is too young.
Gao is still young and inexperience. She's going to Jr. World, probably.

Yuna is done, Laura Lepisto is injured, Carolina is inconsistent, Joannie is done. I see Rachael on the Worlds podium. Maybe even both US girls on the podium if Miki bombs.

Mao will win the third World title.
Rachael silver
Mirai/Ashley bronze

 

[FlattFan]

Not to mention Caroline beat both Alissa and Rachael at 4cc that season. Or that Caroline beat Rachael again at WTT.
Or that Caroline won Bronze at last year's 4CC. What did the other's win?

The others won Gold and Silver and Nationals and got to go to the Olympics. .

 

[janetfan]

The others won Gold and Silver and Nationals and got to go to the Olympics. .

True, but according to your own earlier post since they did not win medals at the Olympics or Worlds they were losers.

An odd post at best - and no reason to belittle Caroline for winning a medal. Talk about a tough, injury plagued season!

I was very happy for Caroline coming back the way she did after such a disappointing Natls.

Keep away from the cakes and Go Caroline!

ETA: Your predictions are interesting and it would be OK with me if that is what happens.
I don't know if Yuna is done though.

 

[MikiAndoFan#1]

You asked me where I got the idea that Ashley might not make the LP from. I answered, she was injured and skipped Jr. World. If Miki couldn't handle it in 2008, what made you think Ashley (instead of Flatt) can get back 3 spots? I don't think my response was that confusing. Maybe I should clarify myself more.

Oh.

:

I misunderstood your comment. I apologize.

 

[#1Kerryfan]

Cohen, Czisny, Hughes, Meissner and Zhang are done in my eyes. I feel bad saying this because I really love Cohen, Czisny and Hughes but after Nationals it's clear that the next generation has taken over. Meissner seems to have injuries that can't leave and for some reason I just can't see Zhang doing well.

Unless her injury really nags her, I think Nagasu will be the top American skater. If she stays focused and really concentrates on her rotations, I see her faring well internationally, maybe even making the podium at Worlds. There is a lot of potential in her.

It's possible that Flatt was focused on senior year, and that's why she didn't do so well at the Olympics and Worlds, but without school to focus on this year, I can see her doing better. Since she's taking a year off school, is this her final season? I hope it's her best yet if so.

Now that Wagner's had several major disappointments with SP, I think she'll focus on doing a good SP and LP because you need two good programs to do well. Still, I think she may be giving Flatt a run for her money.

And I think Gao, Dobbs, Gilles and Zawadzski (sp?) are all going to bring in a lot of new talent. They are our future.

My predictions for Nationals:
1. Nagasu
2. Wagner
3. Flatt
4. Gao

My dream National outcome:
1. Czisny
2. Wagner
3. Hughes
4. Nagasu

 

[R.D.]

Mirai let down at Worlds but as our Natl Silver medalist her performance in Vancouver was quite good and acceptable at Worlds. Too bad we didn't send Mirai and Ashley to Worlds because Ashley might have given us a stronger team.

:scratch: You think so?

At least Flatt was consistent enough to be top 10 in the world...if we could just get a medal or a 4th place finish from someone else, there would be a good possibility for three spots. Before, that seemed hopeless, but Nagasu's surprising turnout at the Olys changed all that. Now we knew she could be a medal contender at her best. She really was the bigger disappointment at worlds.

Wagner, OTOH, would likely be buried in the standings after a flawed/bombed SP. (Remember Czisny in 2009??) To be a real medal contender these days you HAVE to nail the SP, or at least avoid making a major mistake. I don't think she would be top 10 material...or at least, she wouldn't have been. That said, she's likely better than the alternative(s).

 

[Layfan]

Mao will win the third World title.
Rachael silver
Mirai/Ashley bronze

There are so many interesting "ifs" this year.
If Yuna and Mao are both still around and perform to the same standards as last year than everyone else will still be vying for bronze. I really thought it would be an American bronze at this year's worlds, but I was disappointed.
Miki - will she still be around and will we see her at her best? If so, she is one of those skaters the international judges like.

If not, than I agree the door is wide open for the US girls - even for a gold! I don't see any of the other skaters out there as untouchable threats. Laura is the biggest threat because her skating is lovely when she bring her A-game and the international judges love her.

But still, I'm hoping the US girls step up their game to compete with skaters of the Mao/Yuna caliber. Or at least be a more frightening threat to skaters like Laura.
We saw that both Rachael and Mirai beat Yuna during a portion of a competition last year - when Yuna skated her worst.
At the Olympics, when everyone skated so well, we saw that the international judges were not convinced enough to place Mirai or Rachael high enough to medal. Maybe it's just that they haven't been around long enough for the INT judges to warm up to them. But a solid 3-3 from Mirai and better spins and presentation from Rachael wouldn't hurt.
Of all the top U.S. ladies, I think Mirai is the one with the most potential to improve and become real a-lister but we shall have to see.

 

[janetfan]

:scratch: You think so?

At least Flatt was consistent enough to be top 10 in the world...if we could just get a medal or a 4th place finish there would be a good possibility for three spots. Before, that seemed hopeless, but Nagasu's surprising turnout at the Olys changed all that. Now we knew she could be a medal contender at her best. She really was the bigger disappointment at worlds.

Wagner, OTOH, would likely be buried in the standings after a flawed/bombed SP. (Remember Czisny in 2009??) To be a real medal contender these days you HAVE to nail the SP, or at least avoid making a major mistake. I don't think she would be top 10 material...or at least, she wouldn't have been. That said, she's likely better than the alternative(s).

Since we did not get the three spots back of course if I could do it over again I would send Ashley.
No guarantee on her but Rachael was not herself at Wolrds. Could have been the long season and fatigue. I don;t think Rachael even tried a 3x3 in either program.

Ashley did something Mirai and Rachael did not do last season. She made the GPF.
So yes, if I could try again I would keep Mirai's 7th place and see if Ashley could do better than Rachael's 9th.

What would you do if we had a second chance?

 

[PolymerBob]

Mao will win the third World title.
Rachael silver
Mirai/Ashley bronze

The problem is that Mirai is also injured. We don't know how well she will recover by Nationals. We don't know how Laura will recover by Worlds.
To further complicate things, there are new rules in effect. It will be very hard to predict.

 

[MikiAndoFan#1]

No predictions for me this year, I don't want to jinx anyone. Instead, I'll post my dream podium.



1. Ashley
2. Alissa
3. Mirai
4. Rachael

 

[janetfan]

The problem is that Mirai is also injured. We don't know how well she will recover by Nationals. We don't know how Laura will recover by Worlds.
To further complicate things, there are new rules in effect. It will be very hard to predict.

Mirai was scheduled to be back on the ice by Sept. 1st. I haven't heard any updates so we will have to wait for news.

 

[R.D.]

Since we did not get the three spots back of course if I could do it over again I would send Ashley.
No guarantee on her but Rachael was not herself at Wolrds. Could have been the long season and fatigue. I don;t think Rachael even tried a 3x3 in either program.

Ashley did something Mirai and Rachael did not do last season. She made the GPF.
So yes, if I could try again I would keep Mirai's 7th place and see if Ashley could do better than Rachael's 9th.

What would you do if we had a second chance?

For reasons I mentioned in earlier posts, I would have sent Nagasu and Flatt again. Wagner is too much of a risk- nevermind what happened at 2008 worlds for a minute- her inability to step it up in the SP and put herself in striking position would work against her. The way I see it, Wagner not so much fought her way to the GPF as she relied on skaters above her bombing and having really rough times. If those skaters skated like they did at the Olys, we all know Wagner wouldn't have been in striking distance.

If it seems I'm being a bit hard on Wagner here, no ill feelings intended. I just try to tell it like I see it and cut through the sugar-coating, cheerleading, etc. Having said that, though, I still think on a national scale she is a real threat, and could possibly win Nationals next year- IF she can conquer her SP demons.

 

[janetfan]

What about this young lady?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyIaPKkBIMQ&p=50F471F1F632D709&playnext=1&index=4

By next season she may be the one!

 

[R.D.]

What about this young lady?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyIaPKkBIMQ&p=50F471F1F632D709&playnext=1&index=4

By next season she may be the one!

If by "next season" you mean 2011-12, then yes, it is possible. However, I strongly caution against setting any sort of sizable expectation on a skater that is just developing. Remember, Caroline Zhang...any skater can struggle, get injured, or go through rough patches.

 

[janetfan]

If by "next season" you mean 2011-12, then yes, it is possible. However, I strongly caution against setting any sort of sizable expectation on a skater that is just developing. Remember, Caroline Zhang...any skater can struggle, get injured, or go through rough patches.

Christina is being developed and trained in CoP land. Wilson will know her strengths inside-out and will know how to emphasize them and hide her weaknesses. Orser has to get her spins better but her jumps look nice. I think this season she is bringing a 3F+3T. She may also have the advantage of training with the same team for the whole Olympic cycle.

I like her.......where is silverlake

 

[Layfan]

What about this young lady?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyIaPKkBIMQ&p=50F471F1F632D709&playnext=1&index=4

By next season she may be the one!

I mean, I think she needs a lot more polish, not just a little. I think people are thinking she is Michelle Kwan circa 1995 right now and she do a 1996 Michelle Kwan-like blossoming this year or next. Could be and I really hope so but we'll see. We'll see if her awkwardness is just her age or something fundamental. She was almost 16 at nationals. When you think back to the 15-year-old Michelle, Sasha, Sarah, even Tara....

And here is Mao Asada at 14 You can see that aside from having the jumps, there was little awkwardness about her even at that age.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGTM6pVq8Nc&feature=related