U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

[janetfan]

I can understand why many people thought Mirai should have won. I thought so myself.

What I still do not understand is this. What do you think the USFSA gains by pushing one skater forward and holding another back? Even politicians have motives for their deviousness.

I am all for robbing banks -- that's where the money is. But who gains from fixing a figure skating contest?

I didn't bring this up and I would answer you by saying read my previous post again.
You ask a fair question which I already gave my two cents about.

Is it fair for me to ask you this - what did so many skating experts have to gain from Mirai winning Natls :think:
You can't answer that but that doesn't change the opinions we heard and does not make them any less valid.

One girl had been to Worlds the previous year and the other had not. One had a reputation for being reliable and the younger, less experienced skater did not.

There is no doubt in my mind that NBC used any leverage they had to try and boost Sasha. Afterall, they were already in a deep hole and lost millions broadcasting the 2010 Olympics.

Bob Dylan once sang, "money doesn't talk, it swears." And he was right.

US Skating has not had a Lady on a major podium since 2006. Why would anyone be surprised if they wanted to send who they thought could handle the pressure best as Natl champion. Just like they have done before. To me nothing could be more obvious.

It is not a bad or evil idea - just not very sporting or fair. But this is figure skating. I see no difference since the IJS was introduced other than to see that the CoP is makes it very easy to manipulate outcomes, especially in the pcs. And the tech panel :yes:

Anyway, Alissa was the champ in '09 and Rachael won in 2010. They are both nice girls and worked very hard and represented our country very well.

To steer this back on topic I think US Skating needs to let the winner of 2011 Natls - the one who skated the best that night be the champion. If Mirai or Rachael don't skate well at Natls I hope two other Ladies get to go to Worlds.

But as we saw in 6.0 and as we continue to see just as much in the CoP era reputation and preconceived notions still play a major role in determing too many outcomes.

 

[Mathman]

Is it fair for me to ask you this - what did so many skating experts have to gain from Mirai winning Natls :think:
You can't answer that but that doesn't change the opinions we heard and does not make them any less valid.

I do not think that skating experts had anything to gain, or to lose, from Mirai winning nationals. I do not understand the thrust of this question.

 

[PolymerBob]

whole post

I would say this logic makes some sense. But there is one thing I am not clear about. Since Rachael won, our team was ..... Rachael and Mirai.

Had Mirai won, our team would have been ...........

..................... Mirai and Rachael??

 

[janetfan]

I do not think that skating experts had anything to gain, or to lose, from Mirai winning nationals. I do not understand the thrust of this question.

I think you do understand the thrust of the question.

Your previous comments suggested that only for monetary gain would anyone ever dare to be less than fair.
I think we saw how Sasha was judged in the SP and I have little doubt she was "helped."

As to the eventual outcome - there are money/perks and prestige involved in being a US Skating big shot. It is important to them that our skaters make a good showing at Olympic competitions. If not - they may be replaced.

You had also implied earlier that Frank Carroll can manipulate outcomes at Natls and Tom Z can not.
That I find to be totally false and ask for some evidence or a theory to back up what feels like an outrageous claim.

 

[SerpentineSteps]

I would say this logic makes some sense. But there is one thing I am not clear about. Since Rachael won, our team was ..... Rachael and Mirai.

Had Mirai won, our team would have been ...........

..................... Mirai and Rachael??

The difference is that the judges can ensure that the champion gets on the team, but the second slot was up to the committee.

 

[janetfan]

The difference is that the judges can ensure that the champion gets on the team, but the second slot was up to the committee.

This is skating - and while there is no guarantee - being the champion of a big federation has been known in the past to carry some weight. It wasn't true in Nagano - but in a sense it was as the three judges who placed Michelle first were "friendlier" than the judges who voted for Tara.

I think we saw Rachael benefit from the weight of her new title in the SP in Vancouver, It was far from her best, and the judges could have been much harsher on her first two jumping passes. They looked the other way and that happens too often for # 1 skaters in big competitions.

 

[R.D.]

It is not a bad or evil idea - just not very sporting or fair. But this is figure skating. I see no difference since the IJS was introduced other than to see that the CoP is makes it very easy to manipulate outcomes, especially in the pcs. And the tech panel :yes:

In other words..."don't hate the player, hate the game."

Anyway, Alissa was the champ in '09 and Rachael won in 2010. They are both nice girls and worked very hard and represented our country very well.

Perhaps...

To steer this back on topic I think US Skating needs to let the winner of 2011 Natls - the one who skated the best that night be the champion. If Mirai or Rachael don't skate well at Natls I hope two other Ladies get to go to Worlds.

But as we saw in 6.0 and as we continue to see just as much in the CoP era reputation and preconceived notions still play a major role in determing too many outcomes.

Absolutely. Couldn't agree more. If Czisny happens to make a resurgence during the GP- AND she skates reasonably well at Nationals (but doesn't tear the roof off) will her scores get a little additional "padding"? How about if Nagasu no longer has her jumps scrutinized? Will she now get "the benefit of the doubt" in a close call? Hypothetical questions, of course, but after what has happened the past few years they need to be asked.

 

[R.D.]

I would say this logic makes some sense. But there is one thing I am not clear about. Since Rachael won, our team was ..... Rachael and Mirai.

Had Mirai won, our team would have been ...........

..................... Mirai and Rachael??

Again, you're REALLY simplifying the situation. Had Nagasu won, SHE, not Rachel, would have the burden of being the reigning National champ. That carries a different set of expectations as far as media pressure and judge rep is concerned. Again, the X-Factor is at play here (longtime posters know what I'm referring to when I say that)- it could affect them at the performance level.

 

[janetfan]

In other words..."don't hate the player, hate the game."

Yes, that is a good and fair observation. But let's apply that line of reasoning not only to Rachael but to Alissa and Sasha as well.

Capisce?

 

[silverlake22]

Didn't Czisny beat Suzuki at Skate Canada?

Yes, but Suzuki bombed at SC. The point I was more trying to make is that Alissa's PBs are well below those of Ando, Suzuki, Lepisto, etc. I don't think she'd ever score 126+ for her FS even if she was totally clean, considering she has never even broken 110 in her entire career and usually scores about 100. The same goes for Ashley and Caroline. Those three girls just would never get the PCS and GOE on jumps needed to put up the score Mirai put up at the Olympics. I know Mirai hadn't really put up huge numbers before the Olympics either, but she did win nationals at 14 earned around 190 points at both 07 and 09 nationals, and was putting up big numbers when on the JGP and scored 65+ points for her SP at 08 junior worlds. Due to her past successes, I think most people expected that Mirai had a chance to do really well at the Olympics. I mean, Ashley and Caroline couldn't break 60 for their SPs all last season, and Alissa as ecstatic when she earned 63 points for her SP at SC.....Mirai had topped that score at the age of 14.

 

[PolymerBob]

Had Nagasu won, SHE, not Rachel, would have the burden of being the reigning National champ. That carries a different set of expectations as far as media pressure and judge rep is concerned. Again, the X-Factor is at play here (longtime posters know what I'm referring to when I say that)- it could affect them at the performance level.

The burden of expectation, I can agree with. But I think there is a perception on this board ( as well as in the USFSA ) that ISU judges care about National Placements. I see little evidence of this.
When Evan won Worlds, he was National bronze medalist. When he won Olympics, he was silver medalist. ( How did the gold medalist do? ) When Kimmie won Worlds, she was silver medalist. When Alissa and Rachael were Team USA in '09, they went to 4CC and got beat by a scrub.

The evidence I see before me indicates ISU judges don't care about National placement.

 

[Mathman]

I think you do understand the thrust of the question.

Your previous comments suggested that only for monetary gain would anyone ever dare to be less than fair.
I think we saw how Sasha was judged in the SP and I have little doubt she was "helped."

As to the eventual outcome - there are money/perks and prestige involved in being a US Skating big shot. It is important to them that our skaters make a good showing at Olympic competitions. If not - they may be replaced.

You had also implied earlier that Frank Carroll can manipulate outcomes at Natls and Tom Z can not.
That I find to be totally false and ask for some evidence or a theory to back up what feels like an outrageous claim.

I guess I have not asked my question clearly enough. I will try again.

There has been some speculation on skating boards that Rachael's victory at 2010 Nationals had something to do with USFSA politics.

Since I am not a USFSA insider, I am curious about this. Fairly4 offered this view: The powers-that-be in the USFSA inflated Rachael's score because a faction in the USFSA hierarchy wanted to promote the fortunes of the Broadmore skating club vis-a-vis the West Coast bloc. That's politics.

Serpentinesteps and Janetfan have offered something milder. That the USFSA was motivated not by politics but by the desire to support the skater that they thought would be the steadiest competitor at the Olympics. This may well be a correct reading of the minds of the USFSA --although if so, they did not follow through consistently on this principle when they gave the medal to Abbott instead of Lysacek and when they sent Amanda and Mark instead of Rena and John in pairs.

So anyway, what I wondered was whether polical intrigue played a role or not. Since no one seems to know, I will drop it.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Of course politics played a part. If Mirai had gone into the U.S. Nationals as 5th ranked in the World, and Flatt had gone in as not even making the top 4 at the previous Nationals, the result of the competition would have been reversed.

 

[R.D.]

I think at the end of the day, it comes to the same thing. Fixing the outcome of an event to be anything other than the team or person who outperformed everyone else, to me, is politics, no matter what the motivation for doing so might be.

 

[janetfan]

I guess I have not asked my question clearly enough. I will try again.

There has been some speculation on skating boards that Rachael's victory at 2010 Nationals had something to do with USFSA politics.

Since I am not a USFSA insider, I am curious about this. Fairly4 offered this view: The powers-that-be in the USFSA inflated Rachael's score because a faction in the USFSA hierarchy wanted to promote the fortunes of the Broadmore skating club vis-a-vis the West Coast bloc. That's politics.

Serpentinesteps and Janetfan have offered something milder. That the USFSA was motivated not by politics but by the desire to support the skater that they thought would be the steadiest competitor at the Olympics. This may well be a correct reading of the minds of the USFSA --although if so, they did not follow through consistently on this principle when they gave the medal to Abbott instead of Lysacek and when they sent Amanda and Mark instead of Rena and John in pairs.

So anyway, what I wondered was whether polical intrigue played a role or not. Since no one seems to know, I will drop it.

Very good answer.
I admit I don't know either. But I do know the results of the Ladies event were disputed by many skating experts.

I don't think it is picking on a skater to wonder why the result was questioned or to disagree with the placements.

I would rather drop it too and move on the 2011 which is shaping up to be just as intriguing as the past few seasons. There doesn't appear to be a clear cut favorite as in the Kwan era. The GP events may shed some light on Natls - but will not determine who wins Natls.

Since US Skating seemed to favor jumps so much last season Christina and Agnes could both be a factor. If the pcs are scored more realistically then that might favor Mirai - who is far and away our fastest and most stylish skater.

 

[Nigel]

Blades of Passion......Flatt is known for building through the season and IIRC, had a downgrade or two at the club events. 3Lz-3Lp IS her 3/3 combo this season (great ones in both the SP and LP warm up from info shared by Drew and gang). She has changed the entry on her 3F as well as this season...so with her training since mid-July, the programs seem to be coming along. Agnes OTOH, has been training since mid-April and has to do regionals, so I would hope her programs would be more trained at this point. With about a month before the SGP series begins, I suspect all the skaters have all increased their training levels.

Has anyone heard anymore as to Nagasu's recovery? Back on the ice was the last we had heard and starting to try run full programs. What is her first SGP again?

 

[Ginask8s]

Blades of Passion......Flatt is known for building through the season and IIRC, had a downgrade or two at the club events. 3Lz-3Lp IS her 3/3 combo this season (great ones in both the SP and LP warm up from info shared by Drew and gang). She has changed the entry on her 3F as well as this season...so with her training since mid-July, the programs seem to be coming along. Agnes OTOH, has been training since mid-April and has to do regionals, so I would hope her programs would be more trained at this point. With about a month before the SGP series begins, I suspect all the skaters have all increased their training levels.

Has anyone heard anymore as to Nagasu's recovery? Back on the ice was the last we had heard and starting to try run full programs. What is her first SGP again?

Awesome points. The juniors and seniors who have to compete earlier may appear more trained, but may not improve significantly over the next few months. The more experienced /elite skaters know how to pace the training and peak at the right time.

 

[R.D.]

The burden of expectation, I can agree with. But I think there is a perception on this board ( as well as in the USFSA ) that ISU judges care about National Placements. I see little evidence of this.

Well, I don't think so. I mean, why would they? I can see how a national federation might factor in international results, but flipping the situation around makes no sense to me. What could the ISU possibly gain from such an action?

When Evan won Worlds, he was National bronze medalist. When he won Olympics, he was silver medalist. ( How did the gold medalist do? ) When Kimmie won Worlds, she was silver medalist.

Well, there certainly has been a trend the past six or so years. The US ladies champion (with the exception of 2007) has never been the highest placing American at Worlds...in 2004 and 2005 we had Cohen, 2006 was Meissner, in 2008 the champion didn't even go, 2009 Flatt and 2010, Nagasu. None of the skaters named were American champs in those respective years. So, say Wagner wins Nats next year, well you can bet that her teammate will probably do better than her.

 

[R.D.]

Awesome points. The juniors and seniors who have to compete earlier may appear more trained, but may not improve significantly over the next few months. The more experienced /elite skaters know how to pace the training and peak at the right time.

And that's EXACTLY why I refuse to panic right now. We shouldn't be worrying about the state of these skaters now, especially keeping in mind that the timeline to peak in junior and senior divisions differs by as much as a month or more. Although I must admit that Flatt getting beaten by a couple of "scrubs" (WADR) earlier had me a bit

 

[Olympia]

I think that's one reason we keep talking about skaters of the past. At this point, it's hard to make any hard-and-fast statements about the upcoming season. It's more of a cipher than usual because we don't have a powerhouse skater to count on. So we talk about skating we can count on...because it's already happened. I'm sure this will change around the time of Skate America. Which can't come soon enough for me!