U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

[Blades of Passion]

Blades of Passion......Flatt is known for building through the season and IIRC, had a downgrade or two at the club events. 3Lz-3Lp IS her 3/3 combo this season (great ones in both the SP and LP warm up from info shared by Drew and gang).

With respect to "Drew and gang", I think they are wrong and I will believe when I see it. I doubt they were paying attention to underrotations. Flatt has never done what I would describe as a "great 3-3" in her life, so I highly doubt she will suddenly have a 3Lutz-3Loop (much less a great one) if she could barely do the 3Flip-3Toe in the past.

 

[Mathman]

^ But then again, not many ladies out there have a "great 3-3" of any kind. Once you get past Yu-na Kim, the list gets short in a hurry.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Well, Miki and Mao both were doing great 3-3's until the system (and/or coaching decisions) told them to stop training those moves. I imagine many girls who stayed away from them because of the rules will be developing stronger 3-3's now as well. Flatt has been trying it forever now, though. She's definitely dedicated, it's a question of talent (or technique at least)...

 

[Binthere]

Has Mirai skated her test event yet? Isn't it a requirement for all US skaters in the Grand Prix events to perform their programs for US officials before they get the go ahead to compete in the Grand Prix series

 

[mskater93]

It does not have to be an "event" specifically. She can skate a monitored practice session.

 

[janetfan]

And that's EXACTLY why I refuse to panic right now. We shouldn't be worrying about the state of these skaters now, especially keeping in mind that the timeline to peak in junior and senior divisions differs by as much as a month or more. Although I must admit that Flatt getting beaten by a couple of "scrubs" (WADR) earlier had me a bit

Not sure why you would use the word "panicking."? Since you are not a fan of any of these girls why would you be worried because Agnes beat Rachael?
Agnes also skated very well at Liberty this summer.

I would think since many doubt if Rachael and Ashley will ever set foot on a senior worlds podium it might be considered a good thing for US Skating to have an up and coming skater like Agnes.

If you don't like some of us looking to the past - then surely you can't object to looking to the future :think:

I think the current crop of US Ladies with the exception of Mirai - who is no sure thing either - have shown they struggle to compete favorably at the highest Intl levels. That is why Christina and Agnes are of interest and it would not surprise me in the least if they give a very strong showing at Natls.

And wouldn't it be nice if US Skating had a 14 or 15 year old who was setting skating on fire?

Part of me does not mind if Agnes continues to beat Rachael and the others as that could only be seen as an improvement and never a setback for US Skating. To be honest Agnes does not look like a future world champion to me so what does it say if she can already beat our Natl champion?

 

[Sylvia]

Agnes OTOH, has been training since mid-April and has to do regionals, so I would hope her programs would be more trained at this point.

Agnes Zawadzki and Alexe Gilles are scheduled to compete at Southwestern Regionals next month -- here's the link to the U.S. Regionals thread I've created for general info/news/results/etc.: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...ships-(October-1-19-2010)&p=518981#post518981

What is her [Nagasu's] first SGP again?

Cup of China (Nov. 5-7), the 3rd GP.

Has Mirai skated her test event yet? Isn't it a requirement for all US skaters in the Grand Prix events to perform their programs for US officials before they get the go ahead to compete in the Grand Prix series

The new requirement this season is for all Senior Grand Prix skaters to skate their competitive programs in a competition setting/simulation at Champs Camp (it was held in late August), but since she was not able to skate at Champs Camp due to her injury, I'm sure Nagasu will be monitored privately.

Agnes also beat Ashley in the LP at Liberty this summer too.

Wagner scored 54.55 to Zawadzki's 50.85 in the Senior Ladies Group A Short Program event at Liberty back in mid-July (Zawadzki missed her planned 3T+3T combo). Wagner didn't compete her FS at Liberty.

 

[Sylvia]

For those who like to compare scores across competitions (even though they're not truly comparable ), I've included all the ISU JGP/Senior B international scores to date (for comparison's sake) and have added the Regional bye information I know about in Scoretracker for the U.S. Senior Ladies who have competed so far this season and/or are expected to compete at Regionals next month: http://unseenskaters.wordpress.com/scoretracker/2010-2011-senior-ladies-results/

 

[janetfan]

Wagner scored 54.55 to Zawadzki's 50.85 in the Senior Ladies Group A Short Program event at Liberty back in mid-July (Zawadzki missed her planned 3T+3T combo). Wagner didn't compete her FS at Liberty.

Thanks Sylvia - I changed my post. Thanks also for the link with all the scores.

 

[R.D.]

Not sure why you would use the word "panicking."? Since you are not a fan of any of these girls why would you be worried because Agnes beat Rachael?

Upset? Come on now, that's laughable. I was surprised at the turnout but of course that's not the same thing.

ETA: Oh, I see you modified the wording. Well, "worried" is not the word either. Just surprised. Seems that many thoughts don't translate as clearly on a forum as during a face-to-face convo.

 

[janetfan]

Upset? Come on now, that's laughable. I was surprised at the turnout but of course that's not the same thing.

ETA: Oh, I see you modified the wording. Well, "worried" is not the word either. Just surprised. Seems that many thoughts don't translate as clearly on a forum as during a face-to-face convo.

I was just wondering what you meant when you wrote this:

"Although I must admit that Flatt getting beaten by a couple of "scrubs" (WADR) earlier had me a bit [/QUOTE]

And also wondering if you agree with me that newcomers taking on our current group of senior Ladies and beating them could be considered a positive developement for US Skating :think:

 

[PolymerBob]

While I don't accept this "peaking" concept, it does seem that Miss Flatt is getting off to a slow start. She has less than a month before the major events start to happen, and I'm not sure all the other girls know about "peaking".

 

[mskater93]

There's a periodization training plan that most good coaches follow in order to prepare for the most important events in a skater's season. This translates into the "peaking" you are talking about. Basically, there's an off season, a preparation season, and the competition season. If the skater has to go through Regionals, you prepare them to be "ready" to compete their best for Regionals (as opposed to the point in the season where you are trying new things out, adjusting technique, etc). A skater cannot be at their very strongest at all points in a season, so that is why coaches use the periodization training plan for the skater being at their best at certain times. This also helps to avoid injury and burn out.

I don't think she considers the GP event to be "major" in the same way Nationals or Worlds is. You can miss the GP final and still make the World team, but if you falter at Nationals, even if you medalled at the GP final, you probably won't make the World team.

This periodization training is used in many, many sports that are strenuous. I know many distance runners who use a progression/regression plan for marathon training and triathletes who use a progression/regression plan to prepare for Iron Man.

 

[Mathman]

There's a periodization training plan that most good coaches follow in order to prepare for the most important events in a skater's season.

In skating, if you have, say, five events spaced a month apart, is it possible to time your training so that you hit at least a little mini-peak at each one?

I know that in boxing a champion might have only one fight a year and trains for five or six months to build up to that single peak.

 

[R.D.]

I was just wondering what you meant when you wrote this:

"Although I must admit that Flatt getting beaten by a couple of "scrubs" (WADR) earlier had me a bit

The meant I was surprised by the news. Right? And WADR meant "with all due respect".

And also wondering if you agree with me that newcomers taking on our current group of senior Ladies and beating them could be considered a positive developement for US Skating :think:

In theory, yes- but in actuality, when the newcomers start beating the incumbents in senior GP events, that's more significant to me. And said newcomers are past the puberty/growing stage. The ultimate positive development in US (ladies) skating will be our first world medal in 5+ years, whoever wins that medal, and whatever color it might be.

 

[PolymerBob]

In skating, if you have, say, five events spaced a month apart, is it possible to time your training so that you hit at least a little mini-peak at each one?

This is probably more realistic.

I know that in boxing a champion might have only one fight a year and trains for five or six months to build up to that single peak.

What is the difference between figure skating and boxing?
A world champion skater can lose several times, and still be the champion.

What is the difference between figure skating and professional wrestling?
There are still some people who think wrestling is judged fairly.

 

[janetfan]

And said newcomers are past the puberty/growing stage. .

http://www.pbase.com/trilby23/image/122737871

 

[feraina]

And wouldn't it be nice if US Skating had a 14 or 15 year old who was setting skating on fire?

Which 14/15-yr-old are you thinking about? Yasmin Siraj (14)? Kiri Baga (15)? Neither of them managed to blow their JGP fields away, and while they are good skaters making lots of recent progress, I don't yet see them as serious contenders for Nationals' podium. PCS alone will keep them down unless everyone else has a total meltdown.

Christina Gao and Agnes Zawadzki are both 16, while Caroline Zhang and Mirai Nagasu are both 17. Age-wise, they're really not that far apart. Christina & Agnes both feel like fresh faces because they were relatively late boomers compared to Caroline & Mirai. And there's no way that Christina & Agnes have both gone through puberty already. They are both extremely lanky and long-limbed, they will most likely fill out significantly in the next couple of years, which has even more of an effect on jumps than growth in height.

 

[bigsisjiejie]

Which 14/15-yr-old are you thinking about? Yasmin Siraj (14)? Kiri Baga (15)? Neither of them managed to blow their JGP fields away, and while they are good skaters making lots of recent progress, I don't yet see them as serious contenders for Nationals' podium. PCS alone will keep them down unless everyone else has a total meltdown.

Christina Gao and Agnes Zawadzki are both 16, while Caroline Zhang and Mirai Nagasu are both 17. Age-wise, they're really not that far apart. Christina & Agnes both feel like fresh faces because they were relatively late boomers compared to Caroline & Mirai. And there's no way that Christina & Agnes have both gone through puberty already. They are both extremely lanky and long-limbed, they will most likely fill out significantly in the next couple of years, which has even more of an effect on jumps than growth in height.

You should recheck the definition of puberty. At age 16, Christina and Agnes have surely gone through it by now. I would contest your assertion that the "filling out" automatically has more of an effect on jumps than growth height. Particularly if the filling out is largely due to muscle and not fat/flab--and muscle helps immensely with power. Neither one of them look like they have the body types to end up really curvy over the next few years (a la Elene Gedenevashvili!)--and that is largely genetically determined. Michelle and Yuna "filled out" between ages 14 and 18, but it didn't seem to negatively affect them; in fact, just the opposite.

 

[silverlake22]

You should recheck the definition of puberty. At age 16, Christina and Agnes have surely gone through it by now. I would contest your assertion that the "filling out" automatically has more of an effect on jumps than growth height. Particularly if the filling out is largely due to muscle and not fat/flab--and muscle helps immensely with power. Neither one of them look like they have the body types to end up really curvy over the next few years (a la Elene Gedenevashvili!)--and that is largely genetically determined. Michelle and Yuna "filled out" between ages 14 and 18, but it didn't seem to negatively affect them; in fact, just the opposite.

Agreed. I doubt either girl will get much taller if at all, according to her icenetwork bio, Christina is only 1 inch taller than she was last season, so surely her growth has slowed down if not stopped. Sure they may fill out, but not everyone's body changes dramatically during the post puberty filling out stage. Kimmie's body did change a lot, but Yuna, Mao, Alissa, Ashley are all examples of skaters who did not experience dramatic changes in their bodies after going through puberty. Yuna at 20 is maybe an inch taller and 10 pounds heavier than she was at 16, and the distribution of her weight shifted a bit since that time, but that is not a dramatic change and resultantly Yuna did not have to go back and rework her technique all over again. The same goes for Mao. Further, some people are just naturally thin.

I'm more hesitant to get my hopes up for Kiri and Yasmin because they are
1.) not as good as Christina and Agnes (looking at the differences in the recent scores)
2.) younger than Christina and Agnes
3.) more likely to have puberty/post puberty woes where Yasmin is still teeny tiny and likely won't stay 4'10" for good and Kiri has a more muscular build and therefore could fair more like Rachael and Kimmie did after she's done filling out.