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- Apr 4, 2016
People are still arguing Jason vs Vincent? Pretty much every point that can be made about this has been made 50 times over.
US Team: 4CCs and Worlds (updated)
- Thread starter gsk8
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This is Golden Skate, where things that can be discussed in 5 sentences can be extended 51 pages.
But to be fair, some people MAY have missed the various arguments.
For those who don't want to go through 51 pages:
"Everyone hates Jason"
"Vincent wuz robbed of a worlds spot"
"Jason's career prospects are doomed."
"Jason will never land any quads."
"Vincent is the future of men's figure skating (with the other youngins)"
"You are a HATER because you say mean things about the skater I like."
"IT's about the criteria!"
"Vincent scored 2 points more at Bavaran Open than Jason scored at 4CC, he needs to be atWorlds"
"We need to get three spots, Jason will help us get them"
"We need to get three spots, Vincent with his quad lutz will help us get them."
"i don't think we'll get three spots anyway, so just send Vincent, he's the future."
"Jason is injured and shouldn't go to Worlds."
"Vincent didn't have the TES minimums, why should he be named anyway?"
"Jason is a consistent competitor."
"Jason's fans are terrible."
"Stop the Vincent-crowners"
You're welcome.
(Of course, the rest of you are welcome to go on with the same arguments above for another 50 pages.
)
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- Joined
- Feb 27, 2012
It is a new ISU rule this season.
The point IMO is that the rule is new -- I don't see why it matters that it is a new ISU rule as opposed to a new USFS rule?
And I disagree with a lot of other stuff that you are saying.
Vincent did not have the TES minimums at the time of Nats -- but the fact that Jason already did have the TES minimums was not (IMO) the reason [or even one of the reasons, IMO] that Jason was chosen.
Anyway, the way it is now is that (1) it is a fait accompli that Vincent did successfully earn the TES minimums at the Bavarian Open and (2) Jason previously was named to the World team and remains on the World team (as he should, IMO).
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- Joined
- Jan 1, 2013
First, Vincent was given the opportunity to get the minimums BEFORE US Nationals. Why didn't he get them? Because he was injured too. If you're going to hold Jason's performance at NHK against him when he was injured, then it's only right that Vincent's sloppy SP at Golden Spin is held against him, too.
Additionally, in spite of all the praise and hype heaped on Vincent, his score at Bavarian - when presumably fully healthy - was only two points higher than the score Jason put up at 4CC, while still not 100% and with no quad attempt. Not exactly the ultra-impressive three-spots-guaranteed argument that the Vincent-pushers have been putting up.
But Vincent was given his chance. He didn't convert it.
I am trying to imagine what would have happened if this rule had been in place last year. Because if it had, Chen could not have been named either.
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2012
Neither Vincent nor anyone should not be immune from any current rule (whether old or new) -- IMO.
Meanwhile, USFS does not -- as far as any of us know -- have a rule that TES minimums already must be in hand before assignment to the World team.
I merely was saying that I do not follow Isabel's line of questioning as to whether the rule re Senior TES minimums is a new ISU rule or new USFS rule. In the context of what she is saying, I don't see why it matters whose rule it is.
Meanwhile, USFS does not -- as far as any of us know -- have a rule that TES minimums already must be in hand before assignment to the World team.
I merely was saying that I do not follow Isabel's line of questioning as to whether the rule re Senior TES minimums is a new ISU rule or new USFS rule. In the context of what she is saying, I don't see why it matters whose rule it is.
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2016
This is Golden Skate, where things that can be discussed in 5 sentences can be extended 51 pages.
But to be fair, some people MAY have missed the various arguments.
For those who don't want to go through 51 pages:
"Everyone hates Jason"
"Vincent wuz robbed of a worlds spot"
"Jason's career prospects are doomed."
"Jason will never land any quads."
"Vincent is the future of men's figure skating (with the other youngins)"
"You are a HATER because you say mean things about the skater I like."
"IT's about the criteria!"
"Vincent scored 2 points more at Bavaran Open than Jason scored at 4CC, he needs to be atWorlds"
"We need to get three spots, Jason will help us get them"
"We need to get three spots, Vincent with his quad lutz will help us get them."
"i don't think we'll get three spots anyway, so just send Vincent, he's the future."
"Jason is injured and shouldn't go to Worlds."
"Vincent didn't have the TES minimums, why should he be named anyway?"
"Jason is a consistent competitor."
"Jason's fans are terrible."
"Stop the Vincent-crowners"
You're welcome.
(Of course, the rest of you are welcome to go on with the same arguments above for another 50 pages.
*Applauds energetically*
But seriously everytime this or the state of US mens figure skating threads rises I keep thinking there is new news. Silly me, I guess I'll wait another 50 pages to check again.
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- Nov 30, 2013
My phone has deleted my reply 4 times so far. I will post reply again when I have Internet access tonight.
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- Feb 17, 2010
Although it's not an official policy, it is a good practice. I imagine it's very helpful for the athletes to know their assignments as soon as possible so they can know when their season is ending and prepare for the following season. I'm not even a Jason fan and I think this decision was a no-brainer; if Vincent wanted a qualifying score, he should have skated in more Senior B's and fewer JGP's.
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2012
LOL, I am a Jason fan -- and again, I would not change anything that USFS (from the beginning) has or has not done.
But I like Vincent too, and I think he is being torn to shreds unfairly.
He qualified for the JGPF in 2015, so it certainly was a reasonable (and worthy, IMO) goal for him to qualify again in 2016. (He came thisclose in 2016.)
As a Jason fan, I don't like that some posts in this thread have focused on Vincent's former lack of TES minimums as the overriding "reason" why Jason was named to the team.
My belief is that USFS would have chosen Jason even if Vincent already had the TES minimums before Nats.
But if USFS had wanted to give the Worlds assignment outright to Vincent from the beginning, I don't buy the claims that Vincent was supposedly "ineligible" without the TES minimums already in hand.
As has been mentioned ad nauseam (sorry, Mrs. P
), it has not been USFS policy (whether a good policy or not) in the past to make TES minimums a prerequisite for an assignment. If anything, the precedent -- at least for juniors -- was the opposite. And there was no precedent for seniors, with the rule being new.
Jason was and is assigned to Worlds; Vincent was and is assigned to Junior Worlds.
Why can't we just wish them both well with their assignments?
OK, Mrs. P, I really will try to leave it there.
But I like Vincent too, and I think he is being torn to shreds unfairly.
He qualified for the JGPF in 2015, so it certainly was a reasonable (and worthy, IMO) goal for him to qualify again in 2016. (He came thisclose in 2016.)
As a Jason fan, I don't like that some posts in this thread have focused on Vincent's former lack of TES minimums as the overriding "reason" why Jason was named to the team.
My belief is that USFS would have chosen Jason even if Vincent already had the TES minimums before Nats.
But if USFS had wanted to give the Worlds assignment outright to Vincent from the beginning, I don't buy the claims that Vincent was supposedly "ineligible" without the TES minimums already in hand.
As has been mentioned ad nauseam (sorry, Mrs. P
), it has not been USFS policy (whether a good policy or not) in the past to make TES minimums a prerequisite for an assignment. If anything, the precedent -- at least for juniors -- was the opposite. And there was no precedent for seniors, with the rule being new.Jason was and is assigned to Worlds; Vincent was and is assigned to Junior Worlds.
Why can't we just wish them both well with their assignments?
OK, Mrs. P, I really will try to leave it there.
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- Joined
- Feb 10, 2014
1. What "Team" said "who can beat that"? What are you even talking about?
2. 268.38-242= 26.38, not 12.
3. 263.17-242 = 21.17, not 12.
4. 256.49-242 = 14.49, not 12.
5. You do realize that after Nathan, Jason has the highest PB of any US man and he earned it this year, right?
6. You do realize that Vincent's score at Bavarian Open doesn't count towards ISU PBs, and that his PB is 226.39, that is, 41.99 points lower than Jason's, right?
7. Sorry not sorry.
- Joined
- Nov 30, 2013
If it's a USFA rule then they could be blamed for erroneously sending the third place finisher instead of the second place finisher who deserves to go. An ISU rule means that at the time of the selection Jason was eligible and Vincent was not.
The first reason that Jason was named to the team and Vincent was named as the first alternate (for Worlds only) is due to ineligibility for 4CC and Worlds. The rule has been in place since the beginning of the season. Vincent knew he needed to get the minimums and tried to, he failed due to injury. If Vincent was eligible then it would have come down to the criteria for selection which is a decision that can be debated over. Eligibility at the required time of the team selection cannot be debated.
Many people have said that the decision for the men's team selection should have been postponed until after the Bavarian Open to be fairer. Why the Bavarian Open? Why not 4CC? To make sure that Vincent is on the team. That is fair to who, Vincent? Igoring the fact that they cannot make that decision mid-season, if they did, the belief that that would be the fairest choice is a fallacy. That would be the opposite of fair.
Delaying the selection of the team in an utterly unprecedented move for one new senior skater when he had the season to get the required minimums would be unfair to Nathan, Jason, and Vincent. If you delay the whole team selection for all disciplines you are being unfair to all the competitors involved.
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- Feb 27, 2012
Again ... there is no published USFS rule (or ISU rule) that would have made Vincent "ineligible" from being assigned to the World team.
It would have been nothing new in recent USFS history for a skater to be given an assignment without TES minimums, and then to earn the TES minimums after Nats.
If/if/if the skater were unsuccessful in earning the TES minimums after Nats, then the skater would be ineligible to compete, and an alternate who does have the TES minimums would have to take the assigned skater's place.
But a skater without TES minimums is not "ineligible" for receiving an assignment from USFS.
Whether Jason or Vincent better fulfilled the USFS tiers of criteria is a separate question and is open to debate. (I myself am fine with USFS choosing Jason.)
But this nonsense re "ineligibility" for receiving an assignment b/c of TES minimums is ... nonsense.
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- Joined
- Feb 24, 2012
Life isn't fair and fair is when you get what you want. LOL. It is very easy to argue why someone should be or not be on a team though following the USFA rules provide guidelines some may say that is the first problem - the USFA's guidelines.
AT least Zhou is going to a major competition. Jason has always done well internationally even without quads. He is wonderful and stylish and he was the golden boy but now it is Chen. Who knows Jason may rebound.
i personally think the greater injustice, imho, is SK andK. in the interest of the nation they are the best choice but one can argue a team not including 4ccs who hadn't skated in about a year and didn't compete though not their own fault = injury gets to go to worlds and they didn't even win a previous world medal while those who competed all year long get overlooked. I agree the US best chance for doing well and or three teams is Sk/K but that is knowing their ability not on performance because they didn't have any. I felt bad for this guy as we both were fighting it out for the final spot on the team. He for whatever reason did not compete with the rest because he was playing other sports so they judged him a day earlier so he could play soccer or whatever. He had different judges and edged me out. But the issue was he did not compete with the same judges at the same time and should he be disqualified. My mom argued that he wasn't even at the competition, did not compete at the same time, place or same judges and thus those who competed on the right day and the same judges should go on to the finals. He got disqualified. but I do see his point. Life sucks sometimes for someone.
AT least Zhou is going to a major competition. Jason has always done well internationally even without quads. He is wonderful and stylish and he was the golden boy but now it is Chen. Who knows Jason may rebound.
i personally think the greater injustice, imho, is SK andK. in the interest of the nation they are the best choice but one can argue a team not including 4ccs who hadn't skated in about a year and didn't compete though not their own fault = injury gets to go to worlds and they didn't even win a previous world medal while those who competed all year long get overlooked. I agree the US best chance for doing well and or three teams is Sk/K but that is knowing their ability not on performance because they didn't have any. I felt bad for this guy as we both were fighting it out for the final spot on the team. He for whatever reason did not compete with the rest because he was playing other sports so they judged him a day earlier so he could play soccer or whatever. He had different judges and edged me out. But the issue was he did not compete with the same judges at the same time and should he be disqualified. My mom argued that he wasn't even at the competition, did not compete at the same time, place or same judges and thus those who competed on the right day and the same judges should go on to the finals. He got disqualified. but I do see his point. Life sucks sometimes for someone.
Vincent ZHOU is not a "new senior". He competed as a Senior at the 2016 US Championships and finished 8th. He was assigned to the JGP again this season and won two medals (silver and bronze).
In each of his JGP events, Vincent achieved TES scores in both SP and FS that exceeded the TES minimums for Worlds, so it would have been reasonable to assume he would be able to obtain the Worlds minimums at a B Senior event.
IIRC, Vincent had been scheduled for a Challenge event prior to Nationals, but withdrew due to a minor injury.
In each of his JGP events, Vincent achieved TES scores in both SP and FS that exceeded the TES minimums for Worlds, so it would have been reasonable to assume he would be able to obtain the Worlds minimums at a B Senior event.
IIRC, Vincent had been scheduled for a Challenge event prior to Nationals, but withdrew due to a minor injury.
Mean+/-SD indicates Jason a ~242+/-12 skater. You don't need to be sorry if mean+/-SD is not apparent from the raw data.
New topic! MATH!
For the uninitiated:
Mean = fancy word for average score
SD: standard deviation, i.e the variance from the mean.
+/- - Self-explanatory.
So if Jason is at 242 +/- 12 then obviously the higher end is at 264 and the lower end is at 230.
If you look at 2016 Worlds as a baseline (though acknowledging the numbers will likely head upward this year): the higher end would put Jason in 6th place and at the lower end 11th.
For this season only:
256.49 Lombardia
254.04 SLC
268.38 SA
218.47 NHK
245.85 4CC
The average/mean is 248.65.
Standard deviation according to my calculations is +/- 16.72
So high end = 265.37
low-end = 231,93
Using Worlds 2016 as a baseline again: 6th (high); 9th (mean); 11th (low)
So not too different from above, namely cause of his poor performance at NHK.
Just for fun let's take out NHK
256.19 mean
+/- 8.06 standard deviation
high 264.25
low 248.13
2016 worlds based on those stats: 6th (high), 8th (mean), 9th (low)
I only have Vincent's numbers from this season, so let's use em:
226.39
213.92
247.81
mean= 229.37
standard deviation +/- 14 (rounded up)
high = 243.37
low = 215.37
worlds 2016 baseline: 9th (high) 12th (mean) 17th (low)
Of course ice is slippery and all that jazz, inflation or whatever. But I guess the question for folks is whether you believe Jason by worlds will show the lower or higher deviation and whether he'll end up on the high end of that deviation or the low end. Of course Vincent's score deviation doesn't take into account potential to execute a higher BV.
Interesting exercise. Hope I did it right, it's been a while. #Lastmathclasswasin2000
ETA: I just realize that doing season-only calculations could mean I need to calculate a sample standard deviations. I'm way too tired for that, LOL.
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For Jason, using this season's scores (-NHK) makes sense. For Vincent, 247.81 is his only Sr score. His Jr scores are not comparable and shouldn't be used for this discussion/prediction. Scores from international competitions closest to Worlds may actually be a better indicator.
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- Feb 10, 2014
In other words, it's okay to cherry pick data to make the numbers say exactly what you want them to?
If you're a statistician, you should be honest enough to admit that one score for Vincent is virtually meaningless as a predictor of his future scoring. One of the reasons Vincent's junior scores are so low is that he regularly under rotated jumps over a two year period. Based on his Bavarian Open performance, he hasn't fixed that problem, so quite frankly, it's pretty easy to guess that trend will continue he as a senior, no matter how high his BV is
But if Vincent's junior scores aren't comparable, please explain how the average you calculated for Jason going back to 2013 is meaningful and predictive of his future scoring when (1) he's not the same skater in 2016/17 that he was in 2013 or 2014 or 2015, (2) scoring has inflated a lot in the past season, (3) you included at least three competitions in 2015 (Ice Challenge) 2016 (NHK) and 2017 (4CC) where he was injured or recovering from injury, and (4) you don't know where he is in his injury recovery right now or where he will be at Worlds. That's leaving aside the fact that his score at Cup Russia 2015 could be considered an outlier due to the death of his manager.
The point I was making in my last post is that this season alone, Jason's scores at 3 of the 5 competitions you included were outside the range of 242+12. I would suggest that for all of the above reasons, your numbers aren't much use for predicting Jason's scoring potential at Worlds and beyond.
You could always add +2 (value of choreo stsq) to give Vincent's jgp scores a senior benchmark. Or use what he score on ChSq at Bavarian open. Not statistically pure but something to work with.
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