I believe the focus of the Worlds in the year prior to the Olympics for each participating country is more about placing skaters who have the potential NOW to place in the top 10 in order to secure 2 or preferably 3 spots for their country the following year. Vincent Chou, Mariah Bell, Karen Chen MAY be the US singles future. I know Karen won US Nationals this year but I don't see her seated high in the international arena - not yet. Even in pairs sending the Knierims is an emotional positive but I am concerned for how they will actually place. Castelli and Tran have no chance of even making the Olympic team but have a decent top 10 chance at the Worlds and the ability to maintain 2, maybe even help secure 3 spots for the US. Once these spots are secured, then next year let the best skaters go tot the Olympics. To come back around to the more recent posts, I am glad that Jason is Brown is going to Worlds. He may not be the quad king but he's still appreciated by the judges and I think with Nathan Chen, they have a good chance to secure 3 spots.
US Team: 4CCs and Worlds (updated)
- Thread starter gsk8
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- Jan 1, 2013
Jason had a silver GP medal and a gold and silver from his Challenger Series events. In spite of what the Vincent-pushers like to claim, he actually had a great season other than NHK!
Zhou, meanwhile, had a silver and bronze from his JGP events and didn't qualify for the final.
No, they didn't. They went back to Skate America. They went back to Skate America and said, this is what you are capable of when you are not injured. If you will be healed for Worlds, you are a better bet than an untried junior kid who didn't even make the junior final and also withdrew from his only Senior international because he was injured.
And the quad argument doesn't hold up either as until Golden Spin Zhou had never had one ratified internationally. No doubt, he benefited enormously from the usual generous calling at US Nationals. It didn't cause a blatantly wrong result this year like it did last year but as in 2014 it caused problems they wouldn't have otherwise had if the callers had been strict. (I notice that unlike last year, this year Vincent didn't see the need to complain about the judging...)
Oh come now, DMD, we can't possibly bring that sort of fact into it. Don't you know that NHK completely wiped out every other result of Jason's this season?
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- Feb 27, 2012
Agree with your summary :agree:.
But predictably :hopelessness: will note again that Vincent potentially could have earned a few more points in his first two SPs if JGP competitors were allowed to attempt quads in the SPs.
ETA: And if JGP competitors had a choreographic step sequence in the FS, as mentioned above by Mrs. P.
For me, these numbers are why I never have objected to Jason as the choice for the World team.
Even if Vincent's JGPs had allowed quads in the SP and the ChSq in the FS, the gap in Jason's favor still would have been considerable.
OK, as a "Jason-pusher," you keep mentioning Vincent's injury-related outcome at Golden Spin.
So as much as I love Jason, I will take the gloves off and say that it therefore is not unfair to keep mentioning Jason's injury-related outcome at NHK.
Jason's GP placements this season were 2nd and 7th.
Jason was tenth in the GP rankings for the season -- nowhere near qualifying for the GPF. Not "even" an alternate.
Vincent was first alternate to the JGPF -- missing out on the sixth slot b/c of the first tie breaker.
If you're going to keep putting the worst spin on Vincent's season, the worst spin on Jason's season belongs in this thread too.
BTW, I think you mean that Vincent did not have a ratified quad internationally until his two ratified quads at the Bavarian Open.
(And BTW, please remind me: How many ratified quads has Jason had internationally?? And how many ratified quads has Jason had at Nationals??)
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- Jan 1, 2013
No, of course not. The reason I keep bringing it up is because the Vincent-pushers keep carrying on like pork chops about NHK and glossing over Vincent's Golden Spin.
*facepalm* Yes, I meant Bavarian and not Golden Spin. Typo.
None (in a totally bull**** bogus call) and none. But that's not the point. The point is that the Vincent-pushers are claiming Vincent should be put on the Worlds team BECAUSE QUADS! but Vincent does not actually have a great international strike-rate in that department.
Funny how NOW it's "ALL ABOUT THE QUADS!" when every year since 2013 it's been "Ewwwwwww, it's not all about the quads!" *fumes*
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- Feb 27, 2012
Thx for refreshing my memory
re Jason's track record re quads.The point to me is that if expectations for Jason during the period btwn Nats and Worlds should have been taken into consideration in the USFS decision (as some "Jason-pushers" have said), then expectations for Vincent during the same time period also should have been taken into consideration.
Given that Vincent landed three quads at Nats, it was a reasonable (IMO) expectation that during this time period, he would land one or more quads internationally (as he in fact succeeded in doing at the Bavarian Open).
Just as it was/is a reasonable (IMO) expectation that during this time period, Jason's recovery from his stress fracture would continue, enabling him to deliver better results at Worlds than at NHK.
Although we are in agreement that Jason was and is the right choice, I think you and I could go on sparring forever -- because we are in decided disagreement in our reasoning as to why Jason was and is the right choice.
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- Nov 30, 2013
They were at the same time 14-19 February.
I am among those who thouhgt US fed should have waited. But the results from Bavarian/4CC didn't make it clearer: Jason better on PCS and Vincent better on tech, more or less the same results. I’m pretty sure US fed picked Jason early as a safe bet, giving him lots of time to prepare for worlds.
Anyways, Jason and Vincent
I know they're at the same time. I was using the fact that proponents of the argument the the decision of the selection of the men's selection should wait until the Bavarian Open is a clear indicator that their exists a bias towards Vincent in their argument. This argument is ignoring the fact that naming the men's team later than normal is completely unfair to the other disiplines. Even moving the selection of the whole team mid-season would be blatant hypocrisy.
People have said that Nathan and Vincent should have been named as the team after Nationals. Since Vincent did not already have the minimums this would have put both Jason and Vincent in a horrible limbo. Vincent needs to get the minimums at the Bavarian Open because he's on the team which puts more pressure on him. Whose to say he would have achieved the minimums under this pressure. Jason is also in limbo because he knows that Vincent does not have the minimums. The way it was Jason is named to the team on basis of eligibility and Vincent is first alternate but goes to the Bavarian Open to get the minimums and is completely ready for Worlds. He deserves the first alternate position as the highest finisher at Nationals but an alternate doesn't have to have the minimums yet at the time of the selection.
Do you know Jason started Sr in 2013? Those were all his sr competitions. A linear regression fit (x=competition time and y=score) suggests his 263, 268 and 218 are outliners, removing those scores improves the correlation coefficient r from 0.3845 to 0.7332. His projected world score on 4/2/2017 from the equations are 250.22 (without removing the outliners) and 251.65 (after removing the outliners) respectively. Although the available data points are limited, this is what his past performances tell us statistically.
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- Feb 10, 2014
Yes, I know that Jason became a senior in 2013, and yes, I'm aware those are all of his senior scores. But I'm not aware of any large scale studies showing that a single skater's past scores over x period of time can reliably predict his future scores.
Jason's scores this season have been 254, 256, 268, 218 and 245. Three of those scores - earned at the beginning of the season when he was healthy - are higher than 252. If you add to the mix his score of 269, earned last April at Team Challenge Cup (although those scores didn't count towards PBs) it suggests to me that something has changed that your analysis isn't accounting for. And those things are easy to find.
For example, this season, he's attempted a quad in both programs in every competition except 4CC; he's stood up on a couple, fallen on more, gotten full rotation on some, < or << on others. He's also improved the consistency and quality of his 3As and has been getting higher GOE as a result, and in general, the addition of the quads hasn't impacted his execution of the rest of the program (which was not true in 2015/16). Independent of Jason, (1) scoring is no longer anonymous this season; and (2) overall scores seem to be higher than they were in, say, 2013.
That said - a score of 250-252 - which I note is close to the higher end of the 242+12 you previously predicted - is certainly within the realm of possibility given that he's been recovering from injury. I happen to think that's on the low end, but only time will tell. A big factor - and one your predictions likely don't account for - is whether or not he'll attempt quads in one or both programs or simply focus on pristine quadless programs.
Dream on. Quads in his programs? "Pristine?" <lmaf...
According to skatedb Brown's clean rates (%) as of 10/23/2016 (NHK not included) are as follows.
4T: 0 (0/10)
3A: 56.4
3Lz: 74.6
3F: 69.6
3Lo: 90.5
3S: 71.4
3T: 70.7
2A: 100
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- Feb 10, 2014
I'm not sure why you continually feel the need to be rude when you post, but it's unnecessary, and I really don't appreciate it.
As to your analysis, by excluding data from Lombardia and SLC (9/11 and 9/18), you've made his percentages appear worse than they are. Other than his 4T attempts and 1 popped 3A, all of his jumps in those two competitions were clean.
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- Mar 3, 2014
I have no desire to discuss the cherry picked numbers, but I am curious .... what does the "a" and the "f" stand for in this acronym? I've not seen that acronym before. Are they substitutes for swear words? Why would you feel the need to do that?
And I still have not seen any cites for the "Jason's team: who can beat that", so I will conclude that statement was a mistake.
http://skatedb.net/modules/skateDB/index.php?page=player&playerid=778
Here's Jason's skate db data for anyone who is interested: http://skatedb.net/modules/skateDB/index.php?page=player&playerid=778
So to clarify, the data that Tahuu posted is actually EVERY jump attempt as of 10/23/17, so it doesn't include anything after Skate America, basically. So basically it includes every 3A (and other jump attempt) he's ever attempted including his junior days (since 2012 junior worlds)
Here's Jason's skate db data for anyone who is interested: http://skatedb.net/modules/skateDB/index.php?page=player&playerid=778
So to clarify, the data that Tahuu posted is actually EVERY jump attempt as of 10/23/17, so it doesn't include anything after Skate America, basically. So basically it includes every 3A (and other jump attempt) he's ever attempted including his junior days (since 2012 junior worlds)
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- Nov 30, 2016
Because we all know what jumps you landed well four-five years ago have so much to do with what you'll do next month... Oh wait, that's actually pretty ridiculous. I'm not going to get into how I think Jason will do, but using data that old to say he won't is silly.
To give you some bones and facts, not cherries, so you and Karne et al wont belittle Jason's competitors as much.
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- Feb 27, 2012
Thx for the clarification and link, Mrs. P
.I had been wondering what the scope of the data in Tahuu's post was -- given the reference to ten quad attempts.
(And if anyone is interested, here is the skate DB page for Vincent:
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- Feb 17, 2010
Had Vincent achieved a qualifying score prior to Nationals, I would be behind his selection for Worlds 100%. I don't think Jason's "body of work" is so impressive as to displace a higher finisher. Rather, his record was good enough so that the USFSA was comfortable selecting him as the next finisher (after Nathan) having a qualifying score. I think the USFSA would prefer to have Jason at Worlds over Vincent in any scenario, but how things unfolded gave them a valid reason to send Jason, IMO. At the end of Nationals, everyone knew their final important events of the season and were able to train accordingly, which is a good thing.
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- Mar 3, 2014
No one has "belittled" Jason's competitors.
We have said that 1. Jason has more experience in the Worlds arena 2. Jason this year has scores equivalent to Vincent's scores 3. Jason is a better choice for the World's team than Vincent. in my instance, can't speak to anyone else: 4. Jason has better performance skills, and has put out "five Toller" programs where Vincent has not. I fail to see where this is "belittling".
In another forum, someone with your user name recently implied that Jason acted like a 12 year old girl in the KnC. Do you consider that belittling? And I still don't have an answer as to whether you intended to use swear words in that acronym you posted earlier. Do you consider that belittling?
I agree that no poster should engage in "belittling" conduct.
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- Feb 27, 2012
I sorta agree with some, but not all, of what you are saying.
My opinions are that the TES minimums were a non-issue for USFS when making the assignments, and that Jason is a better bet regarding the three slots for 2018.
That said, if USFS had -- from the beginning -- named Vincent to the team and made Jason first alternate, I would have understood that decision and would not have been upset. There was a case to be made for Vincent.
(I would not be happy with USFS taking away anyone's assignment after it already has been announced.)
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- Feb 10, 2014
We all have our favorites, and mine is Jason, but I can and do regularly acknowledge the strengths of his competitors, and if I have a criticism, I try to make it factual and present it neutrally. I can't really say the same for you. Basically, you appear to select data that supports a position you've already taken, and eliminate as an outlier anything that contradicts it. That's not good science, as far as I'm concerned.
Quite honestly, I have no idea who your particular favorites are, but if you consider it belittling for me to say, for example, that IMO Nathan's PCS is too high for what he puts out on the ice, then so be it.
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