Who will break out at 2017 US Nationals?

[el henry]

With Russian imports dear Wally

Not so fast ... Andrew Torgashev was born and raised in the US of A. He ain't imported from nowhere. If every American with foreign born parents was an import, well, not so much, that's who are.

Alexei did emigrate from Russia, it's true. I immediately took to Andrew when I saw him two years ago, and took awhile for Alexei, but now I am liking him more too (Rodeo is just so ador-a-ble). Hope they both slay....

 

[mirai4life]

Hopefully, Karen and Nathan.

 

[cheerknithanson]

Ladies: Mariah Bell is in a perfect position to make a charge for the podium, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see her on the World team. Karen Chen's consistency has been improving. On the Junior side, several ladies have semi-reliable 3-3s, namely Starr Andrews and the Texan Ashleys (Kim and Lin), but Alexia Paganini could make a run for it as well. Haley Beavers is an absolutely delightful skater who, if she could skate two clean programs, would definitely be up there.

Men: I have a gut feeling that Andrew Torgashev is going to have the skate of his life here, and I have absolutely no idea why, but I'm going to stick with that.

Dance: #HawayekBakerForWorldTeam2k17
(Their SD is really fun and, as is their M.O., their FD is top-of-the-class.)

Pairs: I remember thinking that Erika Smith/AJ Reiss had potential last season. Chelsea Liu/Brian Johnson have a solid track record on the junior circuit and could definitely challenge for the top 6-ish (since it seems like the podium is locked up with D/F, K/O, S/K and C/T in some order). Cain/LeDuc showed promise earlier this season.

I hope I don't jinx anyone .

I'm late, but I LOVE that you included Liu/Johnson.

 

[labgoat]

After watching Nationals since the 1970s, some patterns seem evident:

- Technical proficiency is important as it is the last chance the us judges to reward skaters upping the technical limits but only if they are clean. Last chance to stress that under rotations and playing it safe are not Olympic caliber.
- usually this is a washout year where any hangers on from the last Olympic cycle are purged. If you haven't succeeded by now, prepare to be swept aside for the next generation to gain some experience prior to the next Olympic cycle.
- judges love consistency. They reward reliable skaters who can deliver qualifying spots and not embarrass usfsa choices. In the event of no standout performances, the honorable mentions will be handed out. Often these skaters will skate at worlds the year before olympics to secure spots only to be replaced by the next generation at olympics.
-the judges will be looking for the future team leaders in every discipline and will try to get them experience if possible.

With these comments I would expect Nathan Chen on the team, Denny and Fraser, Polina if she is healthy and possibly Hawayek and Baker to have shots.

I could always be wrong but I expect that underrotaions will be a huge issue. I fear many experienced skaters will see their scores drop like a rock as they are dumped.

I know this sounds harsh but this is what I've seen. I sincerely hope that all the skaters have outings that they can look back on with pride of matter how they place. I think the best skates are self-driven.

 

[karne]

^The pattern in the last few years has very much to have a lenient technical panel that will be extremely soft. This of course puts those who can actually rotate their jumps at a disadvantage.

Additionally, the judging panels at US Nationals have overwhelmingly favoured the "artistic" skaters, regardless of whether they are actually artistic or just have a reputation for being so.

 

[skatelikewind1966]

My money is on Vincent Zhou & for the pairs: Stellatto & Bartholomay.

I was shocked when he changed his program right before his last JGP event, this youngster looks good if he can stay healthy. I hate to hear some of the problems these kids have with their hips. Nevertheless, I look for him to do well but not sure if he will be able to make top 3.

 

[desertskates]

I'm thinking we'll see Mariah get her first medal at nationals this year. Nathan Chen stands a good chance at a win. For pairs, I'm really looking forward to watching Cain / LeDuc and Bartholomay / Stellato.

 

[skatelikewind1966]

^The pattern in the last few years has very much to have a lenient technical panel that will be extremely soft. This of course puts those who can actually rotate their jumps at a disadvantage.

Additionally, the judging panels at US Nationals have overwhelmingly favoured the "artistic" skaters, regardless of whether they are actually artistic or just have a reputation for being so.

Seems to be true and oh so sad it is! A false sense of ability.

 

[TontoK]

Seems to be true and oh so sad it is! A false sense of ability.

Yes, and this does no one any favors. I want the tech panels to be brutally strict.

I believe the US Nats judging panel has recently been tilting the scales in favor of those they want to win, rather than judging the performances.

 

[skatelikewind1966]

Well, if that is the case and certain skaters do benefit from the tilting of scales (to no fault of their own), they will be identified quickly when they "underperform" at international competitions and the US will suffer in the long run. A vicious cycle.

 

[mirai4life]

Hopefully, Karen and Nathan.

lol, i meant to say Mariah.
I'm kind of over Karen..

 

[theskatingbutterfly]

I think skaters who will "break out" are Mariah, Nathan, Cain/LeDuc and Hawayek/Baker.

Although I think Nathan is the only one of those with a chance of winning.

Ladies I think Ashley should easily win barring disaster and then the rest is a crap shoot. With Gracie doing who knows what, Mirai possibly attempting the 3A and Polina possibly out, I think Mariah can climb the ranks easily and nab the silver if not bronze.

Men is gonna be interesting to see who will grab that 2nd Worlds spot. My money is on Nathan, and a battle between Adam and Jason. My heart wants Adam but my head is telling me it will be Jason. Max can spoil too but I'm not sure it will be good enough.

Dance for me is set, Shibs should win with Chock/Bates 2nd and Hubbell/Donohue 3rd. Hawayek/Baker could spoil if there are mistakes but they should be 4th. I think if the results didn't turn out this way we'd all be a little shocked.

Pairs is a big question mark for me, with Scimeca/Knierim coming back from her health scare, Kayne/O'Shea have been having difficulties this season and will have the added pressure of defending a title, it's wide open. Can Castelli/Tran finally skate clean? Can Denney/Frazier win? Can Cain/LeDuc spoil for the podium?? Your guess is as good as mine...

 

[sunnystars]

Nathan should be the headlining break-out star. A silver in his first GPF, landing a lot of quads, and improvements in his skating. I would love to know what USFS will do if he doesn't do too well here.....

 

[ssffww]

With Russian imports dear Wally

They're both Americans. Torgashev was born here and it's not like Krasnozhon was abducted and brought here. We have citizens from all over the world. If these young men win, they win for USA. Together with Chen and Zhou, the future of US figure skating is looking strong.

 

[Eislauf]

Well, if that is the case and certain skaters do benefit from the tilting of scales (to no fault of their own), they will be identified quickly when they "underperform" at international competitions and the US will suffer in the long run. A vicious cycle.

Exactly. Let's hope that the USFSA will start promoting senior mens skaters (cough, Nathan, cough) who can actually put up scores on par with Hanyu, Javi, Patrick etc. The last two years, the US National Men's Champ hasn't landed a single, fully rotated, ratified quad. Not one. I'm sorry, that's just embarrassing given the high tech ability of international competitors. That doesn't mean I don't appreciate Adam or Jason, just that it would be nice for the US fed. to get behind the technically advanced skaters a bit more.

 

[karne]

Exactly. Let's hope that the USFSA will start promoting senior mens skaters (cough, Nathan, cough) who can actually put up scores on par with Hanyu, Javi, Patrick etc. The last two years, the US National Men's Champ hasn't landed a single, fully rotated, ratified quad. Not one. I'm sorry, that's just embarrassing given the high tech ability of international competitors. That doesn't mean I don't appreciate Adam or Jason, just that it would be nice for the US fed. to get behind the technically advanced skaters a bit more.

At least the 2015 Champ stayed on his feet and had two clean programs, not something the 2016 Champ could say!

 

[jrice314]

For ladies, I'm voting

1. Ashley Wagner
2. Mariah Bell
3. Karen Chen, Mirai Nagasu or Bradie Tennell (whoever is cleanest)

After that: Tessa Hong (if clean), Tyler Pierce (if clean), Courtney Hicks (if clean)

I have no idea where to put Gracie. If she skates the way she has this fall, she should be outside the top 6. If she turns it around, she could be in the top 3. Amber Glenn could also surprise, but I feel like that's unlikely given how inconsistent she is.

I try to base my judgments on the actual skating I have seen this year, not on publicity / hype so that is my take. I watched Midwestern Sectionals, as well as Skate America and various skaters I was interested in at the Grand Prix's / Senior B's. Mariah Bell blew me away in person at Skate America. Maybe it was because everyone else made significant mistakes and she didn't, but I felt a feeling of transcendence building throughout her program that brought the crowd to its feet. I think it's mostly because she picked beautiful, joyful, inspiring music that really feels epic, as well as a beautiful costume and classic choreography with long, elegant lines. She has the IT factor, even though I wouldn't consider her the most artistic skater out there.

When I saw Gracie in person at Skate America, I could feel her inconfidence. She looked like she wanted to cry before the competition started, whereas Ashley swaggered and danced in the warm-up area outside the rink. Gracie also disappeared right away after each skate, whereas Ashley zoomed around the rink greeting fans after the competition. I loved Gracie in 2014, but I'm worried that skating isn't making her happy anymore.

 

[jrice314]

PS. I'm not sure why people think Mariah Bell is inconsistent. Based on this season, she has done well at Glacier Falls, US International Classic, Ondrej Nepela and Skate America. She did poorly at Tallinn Trophy. That's 4 good competitions, one bad. I didn't watch Ondrej Nepela, but I believe she landed 1 or 2 clean triple-triple combinations at all the others, so that's pretty good. Clearly, Aruntunian has improved her technique immensely! Last year, I feel like she landed most of her jumps except the triple-triples, which she was still learning and was clearly struggling with.

PPS. I've been watching Russian Nationals, and they are amazing!! Anastasia Gubanova is gorgeous, and Alina Zagitova is super talented!! Sometimes, I wish Russia could have 5 spots at World's so that we can see all their skaters again!

 

[Ice Dance]

PS. I'm not sure why people think Mariah Bell is inconsistent.

My answer is her 2014 U.S. Nationals free skate. But it appears that no one felt compelled to preserve that particular sinking of the Titanic where it is easily findable on youtube.

So Mariah's 2016 U.S. Nationals free skate will also do--though no English commentary to explain the zayaking?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0fBBi5nX_M

Or most of Mariah's programs from last season, really.

She's having a great season this year. All her scores are up overall. Even Tallinn, where the short was really disappointing.

But if you've been watching Mariah for three seasons, inconsistent is a perfectly accurate term.

 

[el henry]

PS. I'm not sure why people think Mariah Bell is inconsistent. Based on this season, she has done well at Glacier Falls, US International Classic, Ondrej Nepela and Skate America. She did poorly at Tallinn Trophy. That's 4 good competitions, one bad. I didn't watch Ondrej Nepela, but I believe she landed 1 or 2 clean triple-triple combinations at all the others, so that's pretty good. Clearly, Aruntunian has improved her technique immensely! Last year, I feel like she landed most of her jumps except the triple-triples, which she was still learning and was clearly struggling with.

....

not so fast there either. Mariah was still with Kori Ade at Glacier Falls and had been with Rafael less than six weeks at US International Classic. Technique, even by the vaunted Mr. Aruntunian, does not improve so quickly.

I think if she is more comfortable with Rafael, and that is reflected in increased confidence, then good for her. I happen to think without Rohene Ward's choreography, she would not be in the mix, but that's just me. We will see if she is consistent at Nats.