Who will rise and who will fall in 2012-13?

[ImaginaryPogue]

Men
Rise: Ross Miner, Andre Rogozine, Nan Song, Joshua Farris
Holding Steady: Daisuke Takahashi, Yuzuru Hanyu, Patrick Chan, Brian Joubert, Kevin Reynolds, Evgeni Plushenko
Decline: Jeremy Abbott, Florent Amodio, Javier Fernandez, Adam Rippon, Tomas Verner

Ladies
Rise: Ashley Wagner, Adelina Sotnikova, Akiko Suzuki, Elizaveta Tuktamisheva, Viktoria Helgesson, Kexin Zhang, Mao Asada, Yretha Silethe
Holding Steady: Alena Leonova, Kanako Murakami, Amelie LaCoste, Katelyn Osmond
Decline: Carolina Kostner, Cynthia Phaneuf, Valentina Marchei, Ksenia Makarova

Pairs
Rise: Marley/Brubaker, Duhamel/Radford, Moore-Towers/Moscovitch, Davankova/Deputat (totally cheating here), Stolbova/Klimov (please please please)
Holding Steady: Savchenko/Szolkowy, Voloshar/Trankov, Pang/Tong, Denney/Coughlin
Decline: Kavaguti/Smirnov, Bazarova/Larionov, Lawrence/Sweigers, Takahashi/Tran

Dance
Rise: Weaver/Poje, Capellini/Lannotte, Hubbell/Donohue, Riazanova/Tkachenko, Gilles/Poirier, Hurtado/Diaz
Holding Steady: Virtue/Moir, Davis/White, Shibutanis, Bobrova/Soloviev
Decline: Ilynikh/Katsalpov, Pechalat/Bourzat, Ralph/Hill

 

[Violet Bliss]

I love J10's skating too, and his sunny optimistic personality. Unfortunately he does not even qualify for a GP event this season as he missed the minimum requirement by 0.22 points. He blew his only international event 4CC last season, which proved too hard for so many skaters.

I think he will go to a B event and do well to qualify for Worlds as a Canadian medalist.

 

[Serious Business]

Yan Han might make a splash in senior comps. He has the quad and triple axel nailed, plus he has amazing skating skills. He suffers considerably in the artistry and audience connection department, but it can be fixed and maybe it will be, or maybe it won't even matter depending on what the judges are smoking.

Karen Chen is another very young skater who might shake things up in the next level of competition. She's the US novice champion with the record breaking score who is going into juniors. She already has jumps that would distinguish her even among seniors: all the non-axel triples minus the flip (which she lips) and a 2axel/3toe (you can see how she racked up her record breaking novice scores). She has it all, really, minus a more mature presence. If growth spurts don't do her in she is the US' very own wonder baby.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Yan is staying juniors next season, and I suspect Chinese politics will help Song more than Yan.

 

[100yen]

Karen Chen is another very young skater who might shake things up in the next level of competition. She's the US novice champion with the record breaking score who is going into juniors. She already has jumps that would distinguish her even among seniors: all the non-axel triples minus the flip (which she lips) and a 2axel/3toe (you can see how she racked up her record breaking novice scores). She has it all, really, minus a more mature presence. If growth spurts don't do her in she is the US' very own wonder baby.

Karen is truly amazing She's already excellent at the performance aspect of skating and her spins are unbelievable...just some more speed in her jumps with smooth them out and help carry them through puberty and she will be a force to be reckoned with (more than she already is)! I almost wish we could fast-forward time a few seasons But where would the fun be in that?

 

[chuckm]

Coming up also are Polina Edmunds (two 3/3s in her FS), Nathan Chen and Vincent Zhou.

 

[Dragonlady]

I love J10's skating too, and his sunny optimistic personality. Unfortunately he does not even qualify for a GP event this season as he missed the minimum requirement by 0.22 points. He blew his only international event 4CC last season, which proved too hard for so many skaters.

I think he will go to a B event and do well to qualify for Worlds as a Canadian medalist.

I think that to characterize Jeremy's skate at 4CC as a "blown" opportunity is to ignore how serious his injuries were and how hard he worked to get to 4CC. He had only been back on the ice for a few weeks when he went to Canadians, and this was after and year and a half of not being able to train at all or with severe restrictions.

 

[Violet Bliss]

I think that to characterize Jeremy's skate at 4CC as a "blown" opportunity is to ignore how serious his injuries were and how hard he worked to get to 4CC. He had only been back on the ice for a few weeks when he went to Canadians, and this was after and year and a half of not being able to train at all or with severe restrictions.

I understand his extremely difficult situation and 4CC was especially tough. But he still blew it, with very good reasons. It was almost to be expected. With all the messed up jumps, his artistry was still evident and quite unique. I really admire how he weathered the two years with such positivity and his joy at getting back on the ice, even though the first time didn't last long before another injury.

 

[Serious Business]

Yan is staying juniors next season, and I suspect Chinese politics will help Song more than Yan.

What the what? Why is Yan Han staying in juniors? He's already won all the major prizes there. He's ready for the next level of competition, and it'd only help him grow as a skater.

 

[deedee1]

What the what? Why is Yan Han staying in juniors? He's already won all the major prizes there. He's ready for the next level of competition, and it'd only help him grow as a skater.

If I remember correctly, Yan Han is not listed at all on the Senior grand prix circuit in the new season when announced. So I thought Han himself (or his coaches, his feds or whatever) rather chose to remain to compete in the Junior...

 

[Violet Bliss]

If I remember correctly, Yan Han is not listed at all on the Senior grand prix circuit in the new season when announced. So I thought Han himself (or his coaches, his feds or whatever) rather chose to remain to compete in the Junior...

No, Han Yan and his fans have been very disappointed. I remember a few months ago when he made his splash and was promised a trip oversea to have his new choreography done. He was excited and wished to have his idol Patrick Chan's choreographer (Nichol). But now he is staying home and a Junior. China has only one entry for Men at Worlds and Song is going.

No matter, I foresee great future for Han Yan, a future multiple World Champion and OGM. His time will come. I think Song will earn two Worlds and Olympic spots for China.

 

[treeloving]

I think Hanyu might fall.

He is injured + Getting taller + Chang coach and environment+ will judge appreciate his new prgram as much? (I think his LP last year cover his weakness very well)

 

[Serious Business]

No, Han Yan and his fans have been very disappointed. I remember a few months ago when he made his splash and was promised a trip oversea to have his new choreography done. He was excited and wished to have his idol Patrick Chan's choreographer (Nichol). But now he is staying home and a Junior. China has only one entry for Men at Worlds and Song is going.

No matter, I foresee great future for Han Yan, a future multiple World Champion and OGM. His time will come. I think Song will earn two Worlds and Olympic spots for China.

Yowch! Why is the Chinese federation skimping on Han? Surely they realize that he is one of the most promising skaters they've ever had? The time to refine him is now. He has some innate musicality, but he doesn't know how to effectively communicate it yet. It's just crying out for some proper tutelage. The older he gets the harder it is to learn. They're wasting precious time for a potential podium threat for Pyeongchang.

 

[seniorita]

^ They probably think it is not wise to focus on two different skaters until Sochi.maybe who knows.
Hanyu is injured?? What happened?

 

[lakeside]

The Chinese federation did take Han Yan overseas this summer. My friend went to Ice Castle Training Center in Lake Arrowhead about a couple of weeks ago, and she saw Han Yan and He Zhang training there. Of course the Chinese fed covered all the training expenses. Yan and Zhang were staying in a nice villa, which was also paid for by the Chinese fed. That made my friend very jealous.

If the Chinese fed is not investing heavily in Han Yan, then they wouldn’t have brought him all the way to the U.S. to train at one of the best training centers. No wonder Patrick wanted to skate for China. That fed pays for everything. This is unfair to American skaters, Canadian skaters, Japanese skaters, etc.

Moreover, there’s no evidence that Han Yan and his coach have intended to move up to Senior GP. He may have wished to have a famous choreographer (Nichol), but David Wilson choreographed Zijun Li’s program this past season while Zijun skated juniors. Wishing to have some choreographer has little to do with moving up or staying juniors.

We only know that Joshua intended to move up to Senior GP but was denied an event, and the USFS is not even paying for all his expenses. If Joshua and his coach did not file a complaint, then I don’t think Han Yan and his fans have any basis to complain about.

 

[CassAgain]

I see lots of wishful thinking in these prognostications.

Right? May all our favorites gain ground this year, and may all their rivals...not.

 

[iceflame]

I really don't want to bring this topic further in this thread, but I have to clear up something.

The Chinese federation did take Han Yan overseas this summer. My friend went to Ice Castle Training Center in Lake Arrowhead about a couple of weeks ago, and she saw Han Yan and He Zhang training there. Of course the Chinese fed covered all the training expenses. Yan and Zhang were staying in a nice villa, which was also paid for by the Chinese fed. That made my friend very jealous.

If the Chinese fed is not investing heavily in Han Yan, then they wouldn’t have brought him all the way to the U.S. to train at one of the best training centers. No wonder Patrick wanted to skate for China. That fed pays for everything. This is unfair to American skaters, Canadian skaters, Japanese skaters, etc.

They went to train at the Ice Castle, only for 2 weeks. And yes, the Chinese fed covered for all the expenses. I am very happy that he eventually got a chance he deserved. BTW, Last month, There was a very interesing article. The Ice Castle will soon open a new rink at Shenzhen,China. I don't know anything or any link between this news and these two's training abroad, but there left a lot to think.

Moreover, there’s no evidence that Han Yan and his coach have intended to move up to Senior GP. He may have wished to have a famous choreographer (Nichol), but David Wilson choreographed Zijun Li’s program this past season while Zijun skated juniors. Wishing to have some choreographer has little to do with moving up or staying juniors.

What kind of evidence you want? When asked by a fan why he didn't get any GP assign, Yan answered in his weibo(twitter of chinese version) in three words: Please ask the officers (of the Chinese Fed). And after someone told him there is still a TBA sopt at COC, he said clearly that he hope to get it. I think these are enough to express his willingness to going up the senior level. Plus, I don't think any skater wants to stay at junior level after winning almost every title. It's very clear that the Chinese Fed want to hold him back in the junior. I am just watching his talent being unrecognized and wasted by the Chinese Fed. Angry? No. numb? Yes.

 

[Olympia]

That's really too bad. A talented skater should get all the support he needs.

 

[Serious Business]

The Chinese federation did take Han Yan overseas this summer. My friend went to Ice Castle Training Center in Lake Arrowhead about a couple of weeks ago, and she saw Han Yan and He Zhang training there. Of course the Chinese fed covered all the training expenses. Yan and Zhang were staying in a nice villa, which was also paid for by the Chinese fed. That made my friend very jealous.

If the Chinese fed is not investing heavily in Han Yan, then they wouldn’t have brought him all the way to the U.S. to train at one of the best training centers. No wonder Patrick wanted to skate for China. That fed pays for everything. This is unfair to American skaters, Canadian skaters, Japanese skaters, etc.

This money thing goes both ways. MOst of Han Yan's earnings, including prize money, goes directly to the Chinese federation. The Japanese Skating Federation operates under the same system. And are you seriously comparing the financial and coaching opportunities of a skater from a developing country with a vastly lower per capita income to skaters from rich, developed countries with robust skating infrastructure? Goodness, do you get mad when a poor student gets a scholarship?

We only know that Joshua intended to move up to Senior GP but was denied an event, and the USFS is not even paying for all his expenses. If Joshua and his coach did not file a complaint, then I don’t think Han Yan and his fans have any basis to complain about.

There's a silly comparison. Joshua Farris didn't win any major titles in juniors. Han Yan won all of them except the JGPF. Joshua finished 16th at his nation's senior championships. Han Yan finished 3rd at his. Han's proved himself. Joshua hasn't. The fact that Joshua and his coach didn't file a complaint (and when's the last time any skater did that over GP assignments) doesn't negate the criticism over how the Chinese federation is handling Han Yan.

 

[snowflake]

I see many skaters experimenting this season; Changing coaches, choreographers, styles, working on certain technical difficulties etc. This makes it hard to predict 2012-13 while their big goal is the Olympics where they will come down to what they believe suits them the best.

Men: Gashinski has had his up an downs. When he is up he is really up(like last Europeans, though in the shadow of Plushenko) This season up for him, a good preparation for Olympics where he will medal. Chan maybe not at his best this season. He aims for and will win gold in Sochi. I am unsure about Takahashi. I think he sets his level very high, but I don't think he will rise. Not Hanyu either, he will shine in later years. My bet is that Fernandez will rise, but not Brezina. Nan Song will rise. Joubert and Verner will struggle. Kevin Reynolds should rise. Amodio, Rippon, Kozuka and D Ten, no idea. Abbott will be better than last world's 8th place.

I root for Oda and Schultheiss, both injured last season. I hope they haven't peaked yet. None of them has a GP spot though, right? Could be they don't qualify for world's either. Lots of B competitions for them then, preparing for the Olympics.

Ladies: Carolina will stay on top. Leonova and Suzuki also. The young talents will be inconsistent. I'm not at all sure they will easily pass the older ones. Wagner, I hope she will medal, but think she will be 4th at world's again. Mao should be better than her last 6th place, though I guess this season is preparation for Sochi. Gedevanishvili and V. Helgesson will rise.

Falling: Murakami, Makarova and Korpi.

Pairs will not change much. It was pretty close between Savshenko/Szolkowy and Volosozhar/Trankov(0.11 points at worl'ds) and between the 3-8 places. I'm sure Kawaguti/Smirnov will rise and medal though. Which means that Takahashi/Tran and others will fall even if they skate better than last season.

As for the comebacks it depends what their bodies want. Yuna is still young and fit and will probably make many ladies move down in whatever competition she skates in. Plushenko can take a painkiller and jump himself ahead of most senior men. Weir will struggle with his quad, but kudos to him if he nails it in an interesting program.

Abbott may win a Worlds medal and retire.

:think: Why do you say that? Hasn't he often said how awesome he finds it participating at the Olympics, representing his country. I like your first prediction though