Sasha as I recall did QUITE well under COP when it was still in the "testing" stage last season, and that was even with the occasional bloop and splat, which, incidentally, she rarely has more than one of in a long program. For that reason, and for a few others, I'm putting Sasha 2nd behind Irina. Irina's been the most consistent this season and I'd put her first even if the Worlds were anywhere else. I'm picking Rochette for 3rd; she seems to have gotten stronger as the season has gone on and her win at the Canadian Nationals was absolutely overwhelming; she left Phaneuf in the dust and Phaneuf wasn't exactly struggling this season either.
As for the other contenders: Arakawa has not been having a great season, and certainly not one that would be expected of a reigning World champion. Even Maria Butryskaya, the Queen of Nerves, managed to kick up her skating a notch or two after her first Worlds win, but I haven't seen much indication that Shizuka has. And this is coming from a HUGE fan of hers. Ando, IMO, still needs quite a bit of artistry to get the podium. The problem with all those huge jumps is that it's a slick surface she's doing them on, so she'd have to be near perfect. Fumie has yet to prove she can beat EVERYONE and she's been erratic this season too. Poykio still has a BIT to go yet before making the Worlds podium, plus two factors are against her -- first, she has a tendency to be one of those skaters who gets undermarked, and secondly, her short program has tended to be a problem area this season. Phaneuf, as I understand it, was a bit of a mess at Canadian nationals, and I'm not sure that's the best mindframe to be carrying into your Worlds debut, tho having Rochette shoulder most of the pressure might help her.
As to the men -- well, Plushenko's pretty much a runaway choice, isn't he? As to the rest, I'm having a hard time making predictions because the main contenders with the quads haven't had a particularly great season, and the guys without the quads -- well, they don't have quads. Prohibitively, I'm picking Joubert for 2nd (tho he was better last season) and Goebel for 3rd. If Weir had a quad, I'd have him in 2nd in a minute. If Sandhu had any sense of consistency, I'd pick him for the podium. Buttle's pretty erratic, too. I don't see Lindemann pulling it off again this year (I was actually kind of surprised he won the bronze at Euros). My dark horse podium pick is Chienjiang Li, who IMO should have won the bronze a couple of years ago. Yes, he can be all over the place, too, but when he puts it together -- HE PUTS IT TOGETHER.
I'm picking Totmiannina & Maranin for Pairs, simply because their technique is 2nd to none. Shen & Zhao are more spectacular, but.... I don't know, just a feeling; I think COP will give T/M a slight edge, tho it will be close either way I believe. I pick Petrova & Tikhinov for 3rd; they've finally gained back some of the ground they've lost the last few seasons and it helps that Pang & Tong aren't having too great a season. I don't feel Zhang & Zhang are quite ready yet, they still have some technique issues to iron out. Obertas & Slavnov seem to get stronger with every competition, and I can actually see them getting the podium if Petrova/Tikhinov don't. Zagorska & Sziudek are the question marks -- they were having a great season until that injury, and I hear that their long program this year has made fans out of people who weren't that into them before.
Navka & Kostamorov will probably win dance; they seem to be the chosen ones. Denkova & Staviyisky are my silver picks, and I'm giving the bronze nod to Grushina & Goncharov -- first of all, I'm just cynical enough to believe that Belbin & Agosto are just going to have to wait another year; US dance teams seem to have to struggle. Secondly, the judges may feel they owe Grushina & Goncharov one, given the fact that they probably should have won the bronze last year, but they decided to go with a tribute medal for Winkler & Lohse. And in a close contest (as I have no doubt it will be between G/G and B/A), I have no doubt that COP is quite easy to manipulate.
why would I want someone else to win. I have been a fan of MK's forever and I am sticking with my favorite.
