Here are my (long) thoughts for the ladies I've seen on TV this year, in alphabetical order:
Sasha Cohen: Sasha seemed to fall back to earth with the Winter Cheesefest and GPF after her streak of four consecutive gold medals (Fall cheesefest, Skate America, Skate Canada, Trophee Lalique). Both her SP, Malagueña, and her LP, selections from Swan Lake, are excellent choices, showing off her very dramatic style of skating. Malagueña in particular is great and even improved with changes in the spins (superb positions and speed), spiral sequence (edges could be better, and the change-of-edge spiral is not on deep edges), and straight-line footwork. I actually like that Cohen's LP is not screaming Swan Lake; even though it lacks some choreographic cohesiveness and doesn't have a ton of inbetween moves (cf Sarah Hughes' LP last year), the highlight wow moves work well. The problem with Cohen is consistency with jumps; even when landed, they often have odd landings. Her 3 (f)lutz during the SP at Lalique was severely tilted, and she fell and couldn't complete the combination at GPF. I appreciate the footwork into the 2 axel, but her landing of it has been questionable. For the LP, the toe jumps (particularly lutz and flip) have been questionable. Also, it is possible that some of the MITF and footwork into jumps may disappear since the 6.0, not the COP, system will be used, and it may improve her consistency. Big Question-Can she rebound from her last two disappointing finishes, or will her (pick whichever you believe) nerves (Michelle Kwan or must win title), lack of consistency, lack of focus, overflexibility, poor pacing of energy derail her once again? I think that with the jumps and no 3/3 expected, she'll get either gold or silver; with mistakes, still no lower than fourth (and realistically third given her performance quality of late).
Amber Corwin-With a 3 toe/3 toe combo and perhaps some pushing from the COP, Amber's skating appears to have been reinvigorated. I haven't seen her SP, but I like the different feel of her music for the LP (Book of Secrets). The fact that her basic skating is not as good as the other ladies is her main weakness. Also, at times and especially when the jumps aren't working, she doesn't seem to have the presence as a performer to keep the energy going throughout the skate. Big Question-Will she land her 3/3? I think at best she can place fifth, probably no lower than eighth.
Jennifer Kirk-I like both her SP (selections from Chicago and LP (Die Fledermaüs) this year, which effectively display her genuine joy, and appreciate her gutsiness in attempting to land 3/3 in both programs. I think that she still needs something to distinguish herself from the field and being just another pleasant skater. Jumps are her biggest problem; while improved from last year, they still appear somewhat small and need more height. However, I think that a normal 3/2 combo will stand her in good stead for the short (should be no lower than third). Big Question-Will she try for 3/3 in the SP, and will she land 7 triples with a 3/3 in the long? I think she will be clean in the SP with no 3/3. In the long, I expect a 3/3 but some other jump mistake. Thinking realistically, she can get 2nd if either Kwan or Cohen (I don't expect both) falter to 4th.
Michelle Kwan-An interesting season with her first loss to Cohen, boot problems, and a new coach. I'm excited knowing about her apparently newfound devotion to the sport, with an eye for improved jumps and the Olympics. Kwan's consistency may suffer this season with such a drastic change. Kwan always has strong SPs; no matter if we see The Feeling Begins again or (hopefully) a new SP, I expect Michelle to be no lower than 4th if there's a mistake (1st or 2nd if none). As for her LP, Tosca, I'm somewhat unsure. It's hard to top the music cuts and busy footwork that Irina Slutskaya (sorely missed this season) had in 2001-2002 (even though the head rolling didn't work for me) that helped make IMO her interpretation one of her best LPs, and it is curious that Michelle would want to pick the music of such a close rival and the inevitable comparison that such a choice invites. I like the new attention to her movements that were evident last year and at the recent cheesefest that adds to the grace of her flow across the ice, but I'm not sure that the choreography lends justice to Puccini's dramatic music. Michelle's shown she can do dramatic with her last SP; a bigger problem is not that the music is repetitive but more that the ponderous, somewhat weighty middle section has several nuances that defy easy choreographic solutions. The spins in particular, while timed right to the music, still don't seem to fit. I'm hoping that with a little more mileage, Tosca will be another addition to her already prodigious collection of moving programs. Big Question-Will Kwan regain her consistency and security on her lutzes (probable) add more choreography (not probable), but I would love it), and add a 3/3 (not likely at this point, maybe next year)? Co-favorite for the title, and no lower than third even with mistakes.
Ann Patrice MacDonough-After a good season last year, including a 7-triple nationals, leading to thoughts that she would have a breakthrough year, AP's skating appears to taken a step backwards this year. Whether due to injury or other factors, even her best performance at Campbell's seemed to lack attack. Her SP performance at Cup of China to Spartacus was great and really highlights her elegance. Picking Swan Lake for an LP in the same year, no less, as Cohen was an unfortunate choice. Her program, while oddly enough containing slightly more choreography, has less impact than Sasha's. Her second-to-last finish at the winter cheesefest may have also blown her confidence. Big Question-Can MacDonough regain fully rotated triple jumps? I think realistically she can get third if she skates at her best, but fourth is more likely, and down to sixth is possible with underrotated jumps.
Beatrisa Liang-Quite an impressive debut to the Grand Prix, with fourth at Trophee Lalique against Cohen and Arakawa. Excellent SP to Carmen and LP to the soundtrack of Signs. Her choreography is quite good, but I would like to see her moves more "finished" and for her to skate with more power, which will come with time. Big QuestionWill her injury and a lack of a loop hurt her in the LP? I think if she skates her best, fifth is possible.
Haven't seen Angela Nikodinov (love her skating, but Pacific sectional finish, in which she landed mostly doubles, combined with coming off injury and her nerves, indicate a finish in the second flight), Ye Bin Mok (liked her LP last year, good jumps but more charisma would be nice), Andrea Gardiner, or Jennifer Don.
PS: It going to a strange nationals without Sarah Hughes. I hope she's enjoying Yale.
They are the top of the field, no question. Only the most jaded antikwan and anticohen fans could come up with scenario that leaves them off the podium. Even with a bad skate, the judges know they want to send those two to worlds (not that I think they will need help from the judges). 
on ladies nationals. For what it's worth!
