Men's prospects after two events

[MissIzzy]

So far we've had two events with 19 men competing, a number of them considered remote, possible, likely, and/or certain contenders for the six spots at the Grand Prix Finale, and a couple more who have made themselves new contenders at the events themselves. With things taking a few surprising turns I've decided to make an analysis of everyone's chances:

Skate America top four:

1. Takahito Kozuka-Would need to medal at Trophee Eric Bombard to seal it, might still have a chance by finishing fourth. Will probably come below Brian Joubert unless the latter has more blade/head problems, but could very well win silver-his biggest threat would be Patrick Chan, who he has beaten in the past, and he outscored over by ten points in their first events. Even if he loses to him, so long as he holds off Bradley and Preaubert he's in, and even if he loses to one of them he may still be in.

2. Johnny Weir-His chances are good so long as he medals at NHK, though they would be better if he took silver, and to seal it, he'd need to win. It's not impossible for him to win, but it's going to be very, very hard to beat Takahashi. He has more chance of beating Oda for silver, though I think he'd have to skate clean, preferably with a clean quad. There are a couple of skaters who might beat him if he skates particularly badly, but so long as he skates well, he's on the podium and then it's as the chips fall.

3. Evan Lysacek-Both events done and he has 22 points, which probably won't be enough.

4. Kevin Reynolds-To have a chance he'd need to win NHK, which is extremely unlikely, unless he takes silver and things fall a very certain way, and even silver would be very hard for him in this field.

Skate Canada top four(excluding Evan):

1. Patrick Chan-Needs only to make the podium at Trophee Eric Bombard, where he'll be the favorite for silver, and the only person I can see beating him to it is Kozuka, in which case, barring complete disaster, he's still on the podium and locked.

2. Ryan Bradley-Would need to win Trophee Eric Bombard to seal it, which is extremely unlikely. Might be fine if he won silver, but he'd have to not only beat Chan, but Preaubert and Kozuka. Would have a fighting chance if he beat two of the previous three for the bronze, which could happen. He also could possibly be knocked down to fifth, which would be the absolute end of it. He'll need some very good luck, both in his skating and how the chips fall.

4. Yannick Ponsero-Exact same situation as Reynolds.

Knocked out of the race, but might mix things up at the other events:

Kevin van der Perran-withdrew from Skate America, might displace someone at Cup of Russia
Sergei Voronov-sixth at Skate Canada, but one of the top contenders at Cup of Russia

Contenders yet to compete:

Certain contenders:
Brian Joubert
Daisuke Takahashi

Probable contenders:
Tomas Verner

Possible contenders:
Stephen Carriere
Jeremy Abbott
Alban Preaubert
Or in this season? Possibly anyone with two events!

 

[MissIzzy]

And now things have changed slightly with Takahashi's withdrawal from Cup of China, due to a sprained knee. Obviously, he is no longer a contender for the Finale. None of the top four at the first two events are skating at Cup of China, but those who are skating at NHK may be affected if he withdraws, or if the injury gives him trouble at the event. Look for slightly increased prospects for Johnny Weir, possibly more later, as the situation becomes clearer. If, on the other hand, if he competes at NHK and wins, look for increased chances for anyone with silver and bronze, silver and fourth, or even Evan Lysacek with his two bronzes(though that was not enough for Stephen Carriere last year, when Brian Joubert won one event and withdrew from the other)

 

[Bennett]

I wonder if it would be Oda who would get the second assignment should Dai withdraw from NHK (ETA: Opps, I was being stupid. Oda was already in NHK. So it will be someone else they want to pick if Dai withdraws).

Oda has just tried his quad at a regional comp and fell on it (not downgraded though). I don't think that Johnny needs a quad to beat Oda; perhaps having one more combo and getting all intended levels would help him better.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Abbott can definitely win Cup of China. I'm so excited for him!

Which means that he'll make it to the GPF, unless he bombs at his next event.

So...I'll say Kozuka, Weir, Chan, Joubert, and Abbott are all very likely to make it and 1 spot is very wide open.

 

[siberia82]

In terms of men's figure skating, this season should officially be known as the Year of the Underdog!!! I'm a very intuitive person, and I could "sense" there was a change in the air before SA begun. I've been making some rather "absurd" predictions lately, and my success rate seems to be higher than most people's "calculations". Sure, I may be a bit crazy, but the Skate Gods seem to favour my insanity!

 

[sillylionlove]

In terms of men's figure skating, this season should officially be known as the Year of the Underdog!!! I'm a very intuitive person, and I could "sense" there was a change in the air before SA begun. I've been making some rather "absurd" predictions lately, and my success rate seems to be higher than most people's "calculations". Sure, I may be a bit crazy, but the Skate Gods seem to favour my insanity!

I have to agree. People we expected to do well haven't and the ones that we thought would be ok have been awesome. If we continue in that pattern...Joubert might not do to well!!

 

[Eevun]

I have to agree. People we expected to do well haven't and the ones that we thought would be ok have been awesome. If we continue in that pattern...Joubert might not do to well!!

Or he may be the exception which confirms the rule At least I hope so!

 

[siberia82]

I have to agree. People we expected to do well haven't and the ones that we thought would be ok have been awesome. If we continue in that pattern...Joubert might not do to well!!

I should say right off the bat that my sixth sense isn't 100% right all of the time, only that it's better than what others would guess using logic and reason. I think Joubert will make it to the GPF, but I doubt he'll win another major event again (in fact, I anticipate that Ponsero will beat him at the French Nationals). It's just a feeling that I have. The Skate Gods will curse Joubert for his "hubris" (in Greek mythology, excessive pride was considered to be a great sin and the gods frequently punished mortals who displayed it). They don't seem to appreciate him whining about Jeff Buttle's quadless win.

 

[Eevun]

I should say right off the bat that my sixth sense isn't 100% right all of the time, only that it's better than what others would guess using logic and reason. I think Joubert will make it to the GPF, but I doubt he'll win another major event again (in fact, I anticipate that Ponsero will beat him at the French Nationals). It's just a feeling that I have. The Skate Gods will curse Joubert for his "hubris" (in Greek mythology, excessive pride was considered to be a great sin and the gods frequently punished mortals who displayed it). They don't seem to appreciate him whining about Jeff Buttle's quadless win.

:agree:

 

[siberia82]

:agree:

I do have an inkling that Chan will kick Joubert's butt at TEB, and no doubt we'll hear the Frenchman complain about losing to another artistically gifted, but quadless Canadian skater.

 

[Bennett]

Jeremy got Gold and Tomas got Broze at CoC. Both are going to CoR and facing Joubert. I don't quite understand the scoring mechanism. But can Jeremy go to GPF if he just medal there? I also hope that Tomas can make GPF. Is it enough for him just to get Silver? Or does it have to be Gold?

 

[Buttercup]

I do have an inkling that Chan will kick Joubert's butt at TEB, and no doubt we'll hear the Frenchman complain about losing to another artistically gifted, but quadless Canadian skater.

Chan will kick nobody's butt if he skates another LP like he did at Skate Canada. 215.45, his SC score and PB, would've gotten him the CoC bronze and left him off the podium at SA. He's got a lot of potential, but has not proven himself to be quite up to the standard of Buttle or Sandhu yet.

It seems to me that some people are actually having a harder time letting go of the Great Quad Controversy of 2008 than Joubert. We have now established that he believes quads are important. This is very old news. It's a new season. Nobody's being punished by the skating gods. Injuries and bad performances are not the result of karma or anyone's ill wishes. Let's just enjoy the skating without being nasty about the skaters. Even the ones we dislike.

can Jeremy go to GPF if he just medal there? I also hope that Tomas can make GPF. Is it enough for him just to get Silver? Or does it have to be Gold?

Jeremy, I think, would only need a bronze, especially considering results from other events and injuries (2007 finalists KvdP and Takahashi are out of it already). CoR has a strong field, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him on the podium there. Not sure about Tomas. I really hope he'll make it.

 

[Eevun]

It seems to me that some people are actually having a harder time letting go of the Great Quad Controversy of 2008 than Joubert. We have now established that he believes quads are important. This is very old news. It's a new season. Nobody's being punished by the skating gods. Injuries and bad performances are not the result of karma or anyone's ill wishes. Let's just enjoy the skating without being nasty about the skaters. Even the ones we dislike.

The fact that you take siberia's "predictions" seriously makes it even more fun

 

[Bennett]

Chan will kick nobody's butt if he skates another LP like he did at Skate Canada. 215.45, his SC score and PB, would've gotten him the CoC bronze and left him off the podium at SA. He's got a lot of potential, but has not proven himself to be quite up to the standard of Buttle or Sandhu yet.

It seems to me that some people are actually having a harder time letting go of the Great Quad Controversy of 2008 than Joubert. We have now established that he believes quads are important. This is very old news. It's a new season. Nobody's being punished by the skating gods. Injuries and bad performances are not the result of karma or anyone's ill wishes. Let's just enjoy the skating without being nasty about the skaters. Even the ones we dislike.


Jeremy, I think, would only need a bronze, especially considering results from other events and injuries (2007 finalists KvdP and Takahashi are out of it already). CoR has a strong field, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him on the podium there. Not sure about Tomas. I really hope he'll make it.

Thanks a lot, Buttercup!
Regarding quads, I actually think that, this season, doing a Jeffrey Buttle is getting more and more important in men's field.
This was so true in SC (Shawn and Patrick over skaters with clean 3A/quad in LP) and also so in SA (Kozuka won because he rotated his jumps and maxed the combos).
I felt that Tomas was so much distracted by the quad at CoC, too. His planned element sheet was extremely ambitious in terms of jumps. But he made bizarre mistakes. He lost like 20 points by doubling the quad and doing the forbidden combo jump in his SP. In his LP, he did land a quad, but somehow could not do more than one combo, which also cost him a lot. Because his jumps are so strong when he lands them, I feel that his team might not have spent as much time as other skaters with weaker jumps to learn the rules and strategically maximize all little points that eventually add up.

 

[Buttercup]

Regarding quads, I actually think that, this season, doing a Jeffrey Buttle is getting more and more important in men's field.

That's an interesting observation, Bennett. Having taken more statistics classes than I would wish on anyone, I'd like to see a bigger sample before making a call on it. But I wonder if this is because there are fewer guys out there with consistent quads than in the past; if you go into your program nervous about the quad, I agree - it will likely affect your skating.

Didn't the ISU tweak the scoring to make quads more rewarding - but also riskier? So the handful of skaters who can land them on a consistent basis should see it pay off.

Re Tomas Verner and his performance, I think, as you noted on the CoC men's LP thread, that some skaters are better at improvising than others. I'm guessing Huth won't let Tomas make the same mistake again. The LP I think was bad luck, or lack of concentration, or both. He's had a run of disappointing events going back to Worlds - I wonder if it's been caused by dealing with higher expectations stemming from being European champion rather than from dealing with the quad.

 

[Eevun]

Re Tomas Verner and his performance, I think, as you noted on the CoC men's LP thread, that some skaters are better at improvising than others. I'm guessing Huth won't let Tomas make the same mistake again. The LP I think was bad luck, or lack of concentration, or both. He's had a run of disappointing events going back to Worlds - I wonder if it's been caused by dealing with higher expectations stemming from being European champion rather than from dealing with the quad.

I thought this quote from AS was very interesting

then something about last years GP, that it was an unfortunate situation at TEB. Joubert withdrew from competition and he didn't know how to handle the new role as absolute favorite. Tomas says he hopes this kind of thing will never happen again...and he says that the Japanese are pretty strong, so he hopes they won't withdraw.

 

[Bennett]

That's an interesting observation, Bennett. Having taken more statistics classes than I would wish on anyone, I'd like to see a bigger sample before making a call on it. But I wonder if this is because there are fewer guys out there with consistent quads than in the past; if you go into your program nervous about the quad, I agree - it will likely affect your skating.

Didn't the ISU tweak the scoring to make quads more rewarding - but also riskier? So the handful of skaters who can land them on a consistent basis should see it pay off.

Re Tomas Verner and his performance, I think, as you noted on the CoC men's LP thread, that some skaters are better at improvising than others. I'm guessing Huth won't let Tomas make the same mistake again. The LP I think was bad luck, or lack of concentration, or both. He's had a run of disappointing events going back to Worlds - I wonder if it's been caused by dealing with higher expectations stemming from being European champion rather than from dealing with the quad.

Tomas was inconsistent even before becoming the Euro Champ. It's interesting though, because he always looks so sure and so confident.

Nobu repeated the same very costly mistakes three times (missing the Olympic ticket, missing a medal at Worlds, and not missing anything but the third regret at the 2007 Worlds). I truly hope that this would not be the case for Tomas and his team.

 

[Buttercup]

I thought this quote from AS was very interesting:
then something about last years GP, that it was an unfortunate situation at TEB. Joubert withdrew from competition and he didn't know how to handle the new role as absolute favorite. Tomas says he hopes this kind of thing will never happen again...

I think several skaters have noted how different it is to come in as a favorite (e.g. Joubert at the 2007 Europeans, Verner at 2007 TEB as you've just quoted) or as the defending champion (e,g, Carolina Kostner at the 2008 Europeans). I can't think of many sports with more pressure focused on a single person than figure skating: alone on the ice, and if you lose concentration for a moment or misjudge an element by a fraction of an inch, everything can go horribly wrong. I would never attempt it myself (even if I did have the talent - which I don't ).

Tomas was inconsistent even before becoming the Euro Champ. It's interesting though, because he always looks so sure and so confident.

I'm not sure he was considered one of the top guys prior to 2007, and he did have several good events before Worlds in 2008 - 2007 & 2008 Euros, 2007 NHK, 2007 Worlds.

Nobu repeated the same very costly mistakes three times (missing the Olympic ticket, missing a medal at Worlds, and not missing anything but the third regret at the 2007 Worlds). I truly hope that this would not be the case for Tomas and his team.

Amen to that!

 

[Eevun]

I think several skaters have noted how different it is to come in as a favorite (e.g. Joubert at the 2007 Europeans, Verner at 2007 TEB as you've just quoted) or as the defending champion (e,g, Carolina Kostner at the 2008 Europeans). I can't think of many sports with more pressure focused on a single person than figure skating: alone on the ice, and if you lose concentration for a moment or misjudge an element by a fraction of an inch, everything can go horribly wrong. I would never attempt it myself (even if I did have the talent - which I don't ).

I remember that from Worlds 2005 when Plushenko withdrew and Joubert lost his nerves completely...
I think of that every single time when a skater takes the ice before the program; How. Do. They. Dare? hwell: (and then I'm not a very shy person and have done some amateur theatre, so I'm not afraid of people. But this, this is mental suicide )

 

[taylorfax]

I think of that every single time when a skater takes the ice before the program; How. Do. They. Dare? hwell: (this is mental suicide )

Gosh, I have to agree. Every time. So much admiration. My own legs would be putty. (In fact, they kinda are, just watching.)