Just HOW will the U.S. teams be picked?

[demarinis5]

I am surprised that we keep going around and around about this, trying to guess what the USFSA's International Committee and Governing Council might or might not be thinking. We have been told over and over by a 10-year member of the USFSA Governing Council exactly what they are going to do.

Here is one post among several on the Sasha thread.

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?p=441062#post441062

It gives us something to talk about lol. Speaking for myself only I tend to be a tad pessimistic about the rules and regulations that govern figure skating.

 

[silverlake22]

Evan, Jeremy, Johnny
(Rippon, Bradley, Carriere must win Nationals and delete one of the 3 decisions.)

Rachael, Ashley
(Caroline, Alyssa, Mirai,Kimmie must win Nationals and delete one of the 2 decisions)

McLaughlin/Brubaker, Inoue/Baldwin
(Denney/Barrett or Evora/Ladwiq must win Nationals and delete one of of the 2 decisions)

Belbin/Agosto, Davis/White, Navarro/Bommentre
(Samuelson/Bates, Chock/Zurlein must win Nationals and delete one of the 3 decisions)

I don't really follow dance or pairs but I'm unsure about Johnny and Ashley being locks like you said. Johnny's 3a has been MIA and he has no quad, I think Ryan Bradley will take his place unless Johnny has the SOHL.

Ashley probably deserves to go, as does Rachael, but after last year, I can't help but think the USFSA wants Alissa to be on the Olympic team. I'd say Rachael and Alissa are the two they are planning to send and that will only be disrupted if Mirai or Caroline win or if Ashley comes in 2nd and beats either Rachael or Alissa. But that's just what I'm thinking. Alissa doesn't have the international results to back her up and after she let us down twice at worlds you would think the USFSA would think carefully about sending her to the Olympics of all places, especially if she falls and URs in the FS as is usual for her. That being said, there must have been a reason behind Alissa winning that controversial victory at nationals last year..

 

[museksk8r]

But what if say Rippon wins with Johnny and Jeremy second and third and Evan fourth? Will Jeremy be left off of the team? Scary thought.

Ha! Don't you worry, King Lysacek will be given monstrous PCS to enable him to win a la Czisny if he for some odd reason implodes technically.

 

[gkelly]

I think they will do #5.

The trouble with holding them to #1 is that they never said exactly how the different international events would be factored in, only that they were all of less weight than nationals.

I figure that means that skaters who have significantly distinguished themselves at those international events will be seriously considered for the Olympic team should they be unable to complete the free program (or compete at all) at Nationals because of minor acute health problems or equipment failure.

As of this season, I think that includes Lysacek, Belbin/Agosto, and Davis/White.

Anyone else would have to earn the spot at Nationals.

I think that Nationals will be judged fairly. But I think that if judges see large differences in skating skills and/or overall presentation, they will reflect those differences with large gaps in PCS. Which may mean that the PCS will determine the top placements more than the technical content.

Fans, judges/officials, and skaters can hope that enough skaters will be able to deliver both technical content and overall performance to earn the spots convincingly.

 

[gold12345]

Seriously, I wouldn't be worried about some dark horse like Rippon or Gao coming in and winning Nationals and taking an Olympic spot away from Lysacek or Flatt. Skating is not just about who stays upright on the jumps-- It's about an entire package and how good your scoring potential is. I'm sure USFS is completely aware of how their skaters are currently scoring on the international scene-- even without clean programs. For example, Gao skating a clean LP would get outscored by Czisny falling a couple times. I'm not sure why some people have been throwing Gao's name into the mix. She's didn't crack 100 pts in LP at the JGPF while skating clean.

As we all know, Czisny won Nationals last year with 3 (!!) triples and a fall over two skaters (Flatt and Zhang, who weren't at all chopped liver on the Intl stage compared to Czisny) who skated clean 7 triple programs. Inconsistent or not, Czisny tends to score well compared to the other U.S. ladies. I think it will be extremely difficult for anyone not named Flatt, Wagner, Czisny, and Nagasu to make the Olympic team based on how they have been received internationally recently. (I personally would go with Flatt & Wagner, but the Ladies is the one discipline where I think it could be a close contest.)

Similarly, I'd be enormously surprised if the men's Oly team wasn't Lysacek, Weir, Abbott. They have unquestionably proven to be the top 3 U.S. men this season thus far. Any of those guys with a fall will still beat a clean Rippon, for example. I know Weir somehow managed to knock himself off the World team last year, but it really would take a crazy disaster, I feel, to leave him home again this year.

In pairs, D/B vs I/B might get slightly interesting for spot #2 based on how both teams have been scoring as of late, but I'd be extremely surprised if the Oly team wasn't M/B and D/B. They have the best scoring potential among the U.S. teams (especially M/B). They should be able to get top 2 even with mistakes. And in dance, placements rarely change... It's ice dance! The top 3 in USFS's mind right now will almost certainly make the Olympic team (I'm assuming S/B still have the edge over N/B, although I'm not sure).

So overall, I think the Olympic team will be based primarly on National results... HOWEVER, how skaters are scored at Nationals always reflects their scoring potential and how they have been received in their other competitions as of late. ie... Zhang could skate completely clean at Nationals and in all likelihood would still lose to Flatt with mistakes/ fall.

 

[mishieru07]

My suspicion for dance is B/A winning in a tight contest with D/W (less than a point will separate these two teams), S/B third after a 10 point + gap with the top 2 (don't forget they are an "Igor Team" with some Senior experience and are well received internationally for a country's 3rd team), C/Z fourth and N/B 5th.

It's going to be a showdown between B/A vs D/W and I don't know who comes out on top. Probably whoever skates better during the competition.

S/B are not an Igor team. S/B train in Ann Arbor with Tchesnitchenko & Netchaeva.

I'm with gkelly. B/A, D/W and Lysacek can book their flights. Everyone has to earn their spots at nationals. Barring anomalous placings (eg Evan finishing off the podium) or only a small gap between 2/3/4, I think they'll just send their top 2/3.

 

[janetfan]

I figure that means that skaters who have significantly distinguished themselves at those international events will be seriously considered for the Olympic team should they be unable to complete the free program (or compete at all) at Nationals because of minor acute health problems or equipment failure.

As of this season, I think that includes Lysacek, Belbin/Agosto, and Davis/White.

Anyone else would have to earn the spot at Nationals.

I think that Nationals will be judged fairly. But I think that if judges see large differences in skating skills and/or overall presentation, they will reflect those differences with large gaps in PCS. Which may mean that the PCS will determine the top placements more than the technical content.

Fans, judges/officials, and skaters can hope that enough skaters will be able to deliver both technical content and overall performance to earn the spots convincingly.

Thanks for that very clear and concise post gkelly.

I agree and believe the Ladies competition is wide open. I don't think any of them have distinguised themselves enough to have a real advantage and it will get down to their skating at Nationals.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Thanks everyone for bringing me up-to-date on the Selection Committee, and I regret leaving out Sasha in my original thread. She has the most world-wide recognition and a previous Silver Oly Medal!

It is much easier to speak of WHO will be selected than HOW they will be.

I would assume the following will be considered:

a) Results of 2010 US Nats (not necessarily the winner)

b) Results of 2009 GP Final (how well they performed under fire)

c) Previous Oly experiene (how well they performed under fire)

d) Skating in shows of charity giving the good name of USFS

I doubt we will know HOW they made their selection but at some point at the US Nats we will know WHO will be selected.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

I'd like to echo gkelly.

The one I'm genuinely curious about is Weir, and how he gets treated at Nationals.

 

[silverlake22]

Seriously, I wouldn't be worried about some dark horse like Rippon or Gao coming in and winning Nationals and taking an Olympic spot away from Lysacek or Flatt. Skating is not just about who stays upright on the jumps-- It's about an entire package and how good your scoring potential is. I'm sure USFS is completely aware of how their skaters are currently scoring on the international scene-- even without clean programs. For example, Gao skating a clean LP would get outscored by Czisny falling a couple times. I'm not sure why some people have been throwing Gao's name into the mix. She's didn't crack 100 pts in LP at the JGPF while skating clean.

Yes, but you can't compare junior and senior scores (senior programs are longer and have more elements, PCS is lower across the board) and at nationals especially scores will be higher. Mirai only got a 102 for her FS score at the 2007 JGPF and she did very well and won with a 162, right before she won nationals with a 190! She skated similarly at both events. So Christina getting 151 at JGPF could translate into her getting like a 180 at nationals, higher if she does better, which could be 1st or 2nd place depending on what everyone else does

As we all know, Czisny won Nationals last year with 3 (!!) triples and a fall over two skaters (Flatt and Zhang, who weren't at all chopped liver on the Intl stage compared to Czisny) who skated clean 7 triple programs. Inconsistent or not, Czisny tends to score well compared to the other U.S. ladies. I think it will be extremely difficult for anyone not named Flatt, Wagner, Czisny, and Nagasu to make the Olympic team based on how they have been received internationally recently. (I personally would go with Flatt & Wagner, but the Ladies is the one discipline where I think it could be a close contest.)

Internationally, she really doesn't, especially in the FS. Alissa got a 106 for her FS at worlds last year and that's the highest she's gotten in a long time. Normally she has 3 UR and 1 or 2 falls and her score is right at 100. Mirai and Caroline have beaten that internationally. Rachael can get 110+ internationally for her FS internationally, at worlds her 3-3 was MIA in the short and long and she still put up a 113 for the FS and a 172 overall. Ashley usually gets well over 100 and around 110 for most of her FS internationally so that's better than Alissa too. Alissa has an advantage in the short, but that's only if she's clean. Mirai and Ashley have gotten 60+ scores in the SP internationally, and Rachael is normally right at 60, so we are talking 1-5 points tops if they are all clean, that can easily be made up in the free. If nerves cause her to mess up the short though, she is most likely done. That being said, international judging tends to be more fair than it is at nationals.

So overall, I think the Olympic team will be based primarly on National results... HOWEVER, how skaters are scored at Nationals always reflects their scoring potential and how they have been received in their other competitions as of late. ie... Zhang could skate completely clean at Nationals and in all likelihood would still lose to Flatt with mistakes/ fall.

You are probably right, but the nationals judges seem to like Caroline. She has always done well at nationals. No way will they give her a 40 for PCS like she got at SC. If Rachael fell once or missed the 3-3, then I think you are right, she would beat Caroline (and deserves to just because of Zhang's speed/technique/lack of GOEs), but if Rachael makes more than a couple mistakes Caroline will probably be ahead of her. Where Alissa is reigning champ who won through benefit of the doubt last year, I don't think they will name her national champ again unless she really deserves it (meaning a good SP and at least 5 triples in the FS). I think she has to land at least 4 triples in the FS with a clean short to even have a shot at 2nd, if they are being fair. I wonder if Rachael will be US Silver Medalist for a THIRD time or if she will finally win/drop lower. And then there's Sasha we have to consider...

 

[BlackAxel]

I'd like to echo gkelly.

The one I'm genuinely curious about is Weir, and how he gets treated at Nationals.

Given the past history between Weir and the USFSA, I am also wondering whether the USFSA will give a spot to Rippon rather than Weir. But I guess we shall all see....

 

[nubka]

I think the USFSA should just put up a poll here at FSU and let us decide who goes...

 

[life684]

I think the USFSA should just put up a poll here at FSU and let us decide who goes...

Surely you meant Goldenskate not FSU

 

[museksk8r]

Given the past history between Weir and the USFSA, I am also wondering whether the USFSA will give a spot to Rippon rather than Weir. But I guess we shall all see....

I truly think the only way that will happen is if Weir gives the judges no other choice but to select Rippon over him by skating terribly. Weir has the benefit of a stronger reputation, resume, and scoring potential than Rippon at this point in their careers. I really don't understand the cries from Johnny's fans of how the USFSA is out to get him at all. If anything, the construction of his programs (lack of complex transitions and choreography and his habit of neglecting to do the maximum allotted combination jumps, etc.) hinders his placements far greater than the USFSA selection committee does. His job is to skate and fight, not to pout that everyone is against him, and I know he will try his best to fight and make that team. He has already shown his fight with the way he competed at the GPF and the fact that he didn't quit after the dismal season he had last year. I'm cheering for him to make that team convincingly!

 

[R.D.]

I think the USFSA should just put up a poll here at FSU and let us decide who goes...

:chorus:

 

[PolymerBob]

So overall, I think the Olympic team will be based primarly on National results... HOWEVER, how skaters are scored at Nationals always reflects their scoring potential and how they have been received in their other competitions as of late. ie... Zhang could skate completely clean at Nationals and in all likelihood would still lose to Flatt with mistakes/ fall.

So basically you believe .................

4) The USFSA will include the 6 Grand Prix events, which were not listed in their bulletin, thereby using 11 international events, and reach a decision. They will then jury-rig the results at Nationals to reflect this decision. The top 2 or 3 skaters / teams from the jury-rigged Nationals go to Vancouver.

I guess the biggest uncertainty here is just how the ISU events will be used. They can be used in addition to a fairly judged Nationals, which runs the risk of someone other than the top 2 / 3 going to Vancouver. Or they could use the ISU results to add or subtract points at Nationals, which runs the risk of a poorer program beating a better one. Which will the USFSA do?

If I was running the USFSA, I clearly state ahead of time what we intend to do before Nationals begin. ( How is that for a radical thought? )

 

[Mathman]

I guess the biggest uncertainty here is just how the ISU events will be used.

I do not think there is any uncertainty.

If I was running the USFSA, I clearly state ahead of time what we intend to do before Nationals begin.

I think they did. We just have to know how to read "skate-speak."

 

[gkelly]

I guess the biggest uncertainty here is just how the ISU events will be used. They can be used in addition to a fairly judged Nationals, which runs the risk of someone other than the top 2 / 3 going to Vancouver. Or they could use the ISU results to add or subtract points at Nationals, which runs the risk of a poorer program beating a better one. Which will the USFSA do?

If I was running the USFSA, I clearly state ahead of time what we intend to do before Nationals begin. ( How is that for a radical thought? )

If you really do believe that they will "use the ISU results to add or subtract points at Nationals," do you think they would announce that head of time?

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I really think that the selection of skaters for the Olys has already been penciled in and is awaiting confirmation of National Results.

HOW they reached at their decisions, we will never know.

 

[Kimmie Fan]

1) The USFSA will take results from the 5 international events which they listed in last year’s bulletin. The National championship will then be fairly judged, and the 6 results will be factored together to pick the teams. ( This is what the USFSA claims they will do, so I just thought I would put it first. )

So what are the 5 international events?
If the GPs are not included, then they must be:
1. Worlds
2. 4CC
3 GPF?
4 ?
5 ?