Just HOW will the U.S. teams be picked?

Kimmie Fan said:

So what are the 5 international events?
If the GPs are not included, then they must be:
1. Worlds
2. 4CC
3 GPF?
4 ?
5 ?

Click to expand...

http://www.usfigureskating.org/cont... WOG FSK Athlete Selection Procedures web.pdf

This season's GPF.

Last season's Worlds, Four Continents, and Junior Worlds.

This seasons Junior GPF.

In that order of importance after Nationals.

Joesitz said:

I really think that the selection of skaters for the Olys has already been penciled in and is awaiting confirmation of National Results.

HOW they reached at their decisions, we will never know.

Click to expand...

Yes, this is what I think too. They are waiting until after nationals to say who these people will be, to make it seem fair, when really they have decided who is going. I think the only way said teams will be changed is if at nationals a person who was "on" the team completely bombs and someone "off" it blows away the competition. But like I said, within reason, the USFSA can pretty much decide who wins with some tweaking of scores. With so many good skaters competing at nationals I think this is just kind of the name of the game.

Also, Sasha is going to mess things up. I don't know if the USFSA is holding a spot for her or not, with her injury and having yet to compete, it's hard to know. I have a feeling in my gut Rachael and Alissa will be the ones to go to the Olympics, though I prefer Ashley and Mirai.

From what I know, USFS' International Committee takes their job very seriously and the 2010 Olympic team will be selected as fairly as possible. I personally believe that 2010 Nationals results/performance will carry the most weight and that the top 2 ladies, 3 men, 2 pairs and 3 dance teams will be named to the Olympic team, barring any extraordinary circumstances.

Joesitz said:

I really think that the selection of skaters for the Olys has already been penciled in and is awaiting confirmation of National Results.

Click to expand...

I might be dead wrong, but I think the opposite is true. I agree with Sylvia. I think the big shots at USFSA are eagerly waiting, just like we are, to see who steps up to the plate at Nationals and wins a spot on the team.

Thanks, Mathman! Off-topic, but are you aware of the Detroit Skating Club's Nationals send-off show scheduled for this Saturday, January 2nd?

Here's the link to the thread I started in the Announcements forum about upcoming shows, including the one in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan and another in Laurel, Maryland this Saturday, and 2 in Delaware on January 9th: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?t=30002

Sylvia said:

Thanks, Mathman! Off-topic, but are you aware of the Detroit Skating Club's Nationals send-off show scheduled for this Saturday, January 2nd?

Click to expand...

I just saw your post in the Announcements folder. I hope I will be able to go, but it might not be possible because I cannot drive at night. I will write a report if I can get there.

all i am going to say--i wish they would judge fairly-forget names just go by what they do on ice that night
i know it is impossible due to human nature-but i wish they would.
and keep dreaming (about fair judging) why -have they done it in the past under cop.

to all skaters -best of luck, wish you well under circumstance.

to all judges try your best.

fairly4 said:

all i am going to say--i wish they would judge fairly-forget names just go by what they do on ice that night
i know it is impossible due to human nature-but i wish they would.
and keep dreaming (about fair judging) why -have they done it in the past under cop.

to all skaters -best of luck, wish you well under circumstance.

to all judges try your best.

Click to expand...

ITA. I hope there are some surprises in the results though! If there are, then we know it was judged fairly!

Personally over the past two seasons i have lost faith in the USFA ability to pick the best team for olympics especially when it comes to singles event; I wish the would a stated a more deffinite system like they do for the team envolopes;

enlight78 said:

Personally over the past two seasons i have lost faith in the USFA ability to pick the best team for olympics especially when it comes to singles event; I wish the would a stated a more deffinite system like they do for the team envolopes;

Click to expand...

Last year ( 2008 ) the USFSA was in a tough spot as 3 of the 4 best ladies were underage. There was really not much they could do. This year, I think they messed up pretty badly.

As for the Olympic team, we have been arguing in circles for over a year now and have settled nothing. Now we have reliable sources who think the USFSA will do what they always have, but were bending the truth to keep control of the National championship. None of this inspires my confidence.

fairly4 said:

all i am going to say--i wish they would judge fairly-forget names just go by what they do on ice that night

Click to expand...

Don't we all.

I agree with Mathman - this thread is a lot of speculation for no reason at all.

The placements at Nationals, and that alone, will decide who goes to the Olympics. The ONLY exception is Evan Lysacek. Unless he literally breaks a leg, he will be named to the Olympic team.

Now, the judges may grade unfairly and hold certain skaters up...but that is what it is. The results of Nationals will determine the Olympic team.

^^^
I can't imagine them leaving out Evan if he has a bad skate and places 4th. Didn't they bring in Kimmie last year when others skated better?

In 2008 Kimmie went to Worlds even though one eligible girl at Nationals placed higher than her.

Only in these kinds of cases (being a recent National Champion + World Champion) does USFA deter from selecting solely based on placements at Nationals.

PolymerBob said:

So basically you believe .................

4) The USFSA will include the 6 Grand Prix events, which were not listed in their bulletin, thereby using 11 international events, and reach a decision. They will then jury-rig the results at Nationals to reflect this decision. The top 2 or 3 skaters / teams from the jury-rigged Nationals go to Vancouver.

Click to expand...

Nope, I didn't mean it like that. I meant that how the U.S. skaters score on the GP series is a good indication of the skaters' scoring potential and what the judges are willing to reward and what they aren't. For example, you can see that Flatt received 58 points with a fall in a SP this season, while Zhang hasn't hit that mark even while skating clean. Flatt will have some leeway at Nationals in terms of the mistakes she will be able to make. It's not that this is "unfair"... It's just that skating is about a lot more than simply who lands all the jumps. Before we get to Nat'ls, we already have a decent idea who will have speed issues, presentation issues, UR issues, flutzing issues, technique issues, etc that will knock their scores.

silverlake22 said:

Yes, but you can't compare junior and senior scores (senior programs are longer and have more elements, PCS is lower across the board) and at nationals especially scores will be higher. Mirai only got a 102 for her FS score at the 2007 JGPF and she did very well and won with a 162, right before she won nationals with a 190! She skated similarly at both events. So Christina getting 151 at JGPF could translate into her getting like a 180 at nationals, higher if she does better, which could be 1st or 2nd place depending on what everyone else does

Click to expand...

Good point... I didn't remember Mirai's scores had escalated that much from Jr to Sr (although Natl scores do tend to be a bit higher than Intl scores). The difference was that at that point in the quad, the US Jr ladies coming up were noticeably outdoing the US Sr ladies technically, and arguably even artistically. Mirai and some of the other Jr age ladies (Rachael, Ashley, etc), were expected to immediately take over the top spots in Srs. Christina isn't at that point right now, but I think she could upset a top 5 or 6 skater if she skates very well.

silverlake22 said:

Internationally, she really doesn't, especially in the FS. Alissa got a 106 for her FS at worlds last year and that's the highest she's gotten in a long time. Normally she has 3 UR and 1 or 2 falls and her score is right at 100. Mirai and Caroline have beaten that internationally. Rachael can get 110+ internationally for her FS internationally, at worlds her 3-3 was MIA in the short and long and she still put up a 113 for the FS and a 172 overall. Ashley usually gets well over 100 and around 110 for most of her FS internationally so that's better than Alissa too....

Click to expand...

True. It just seems like Alissa splats and URs A LOT more than any of the other top U.S. ladies, but is usually right there with them score-wise because of her good qualities (she is also a decent SP skater), as well as the weaknesses of the other US skaters. Aside from Flatt, can anyone put up 110 in a LP if they skate well? Even Wagner who has skated relatively well hasn't hit 110 yet. Zhang and Nagasu have gotten hammered even while staying upright on the jumps. I feel like this is keeping Alissa in contention even though she has melted down and shown weak technical content a ridiculous number of times now. I would much prefer to send Wagner or even Nagasu over her.

silverlake22 said:

You are probably right, but the nationals judges seem to like Caroline. She has always done well at nationals. No way will they give her a 40 for PCS like she got at SC. If Rachael fell once or missed the 3-3, then I think you are right, she would beat Caroline (and deserves to just because of Zhang's speed/technique/lack of GOEs), but if Rachael makes more than a couple mistakes Caroline will probably be ahead of her.

Click to expand...

Oh, I agree, but Caroline's speed/technique/etc issues have hurt her plenty at Nationals, too. She's skated clean 7 triple LPs at the past two Nationals and didn't break into the top 2 either time. I think it would take A LOT for her to make the Olympic team, especially since she been hammered for her weaknesses as of late.

silverlake22 said:

ITA. I hope there are some surprises in the results though! If there are, then we know it was judged fairly!

Click to expand...

I don't really like surprises. A surprise, to me, would be some non-contender coming in and skating some fluke "miracle skate" to get on the Olympic team that they can't reproducing ever again. No thanks. I feel like the Oly team will kind of pick itself. We've seen all of these skaters enough times now to know who has the best scoring potential, etc. Most of them will probably skate the best technically at Nationals anyway. And for the favorites who don't skate that well, they may have some other qualities of their skating that may help keep their scores high.

gold12345 said:

I feel like this is keeping Alissa in contention even though she has melted down and shown weak technical content a ridiculous number of times now. I would much prefer to send Wagner or even Nagasu over her.

Click to expand...

I agree, as lovely a skater as Alissa is, there is something to be said about mental toughness. Mirai had a VERY rough year last year what with the injury, the huge growth spurt, the coaching problems, the URs, defending her title, and even this year has been rough after she was hammered with URs at CoC and was cheated out of a medal at SC after she worked so hard to fix her jump issues - still, through it all, she has managed to stay on her feet. She is very tough and rarely falls, even after all she's been through. Ashley is tough too, she's not one to fall a lot, and she's also good at rising from a bad short and putting up a great long. Alissa has risen from a bad short to put up a good long twice in her whole career (2007 nats and 2009 worlds) and even then, her LP score is not that good. Mirai and Ashley are tough and I think that would do well under Olympic pressure.

gold12345 said:

I don't really like surprises. A surprise, to me, would be some non-contender coming in and skating some fluke "miracle skate" to get on the Olympic team that they can't reproducing ever again. No thanks. I feel like the Oly team will kind of pick itself. We've seen all of these skaters enough times now to know who has the best scoring potential, etc. Most of them will probably skate the best technically at Nationals anyway. And for the favorites who don't skate that well, they may have some other qualities of their skating that may help keep their scores high.

Click to expand...

This is a good point. When I say surprise though, I mean by a skater that is as good as the contenders and maybe hasn't been given enough attention. I was thinking an Angela Maxwell, Christina Gao, Alexe Gilles rising to the occasion and earning an Olympic spots. These skaters have proved their worth and are obviously very talented.

I can hear Dr. Thomas say "Hey man, One Potato, Two Potato!"

You mean it isn't "Eenee Meenee Minee Mo"?

Blades of Passion said:

In 2008 Kimmie went to Worlds even though one eligible girl at Nationals placed higher than her.

Only in these kinds of cases (being a recent National Champion + World Champion) does USFA deter from selecting solely based on placements at Nationals.

Click to expand...

Noted, but regardless, there have been exceptions to these Nationals' results of going to the Olys, so why this year should we take it as gospel? Should only one comp say "this is the finest Team we have?" I don't think any coach in any sport would agree to that. One chooses the proven best from as many sources as possible - not just n the last comp of the season.

What if Mirai wins? She did last year. and Ashley is second, then Rachel don't go regardless of how she places. Although it would satisfy the regulation, what does it say about sending the best we have to thel Olys?.

A manager's job is to select the contestants who are exceptional under fire.

It takes more than one comp to do that. There have been many skaters who are exceptional but not under fire. Rohan comes to mind.

Why would anyone think a written procedure should take precedence over multiple comps, is not easily understood by me.

If the placements at the Nats (for all Divisions) is a blanket ticket to Vancouver, then tell me why we need a special committee to decide who goes?

Can you imagine France telling Brian th'tat he can't go because Amodio, Preaubert and Ponsero beat him at the French Nats? Mon Dieu!

gold12345 said:

I don't really like surprises. A surprise, to me, would be some non-contender coming in and skating some fluke "miracle skate" to get on the Olympic team that they can't reproducing ever again. No thanks. I feel like the Oly team will kind of pick itself. We've seen all of these skaters enough times now to know who has the best scoring potential, etc. Most of them will probably skate the best technically at Nationals anyway. And for the favorites who don't skate that well, they may have some other qualities of their skating that may help keep their scores high.

Click to expand...

I am taking paragraphs out of order here, but if we accept that we shouldn't put too much weight on one great performance, the opposite is also true. We shouldn't put too much weight on one horrible performance.

gold12345 said:

Nope, I didn't mean it like that. I meant that how the U.S. skaters score on the GP series is a good indication of the skaters' scoring potential and what the judges are willing to reward and what they aren't. For example, you can see that Flatt received 58 points with a fall in a SP this season, while Zhang hasn't hit that mark even while skating clean. Flatt will have some leeway at Nationals in terms of the mistakes she will be able to make. It's not that this is "unfair"... It's just that skating is about a lot more than simply who lands all the jumps. Before we get to Nat'ls, we already have a decent idea who will have speed issues, presentation issues, UR issues, flutzing issues, technique issues, etc that will knock their scores.

Oh, I agree, but Caroline's speed/technique/etc issues have hurt her plenty at Nationals, too. She's skated clean 7 triple LPs at the past two Nationals and didn't break into the top 2 either time. I think it would take A LOT for her to make the Olympic team, especially since she been hammered for her weaknesses as of late.

Click to expand...

There seems to be a common perception that Caroline will be at a disadvantage come Nationals. I don't think that is true. She beat Rachael and Alissa at Four Continents, and beat Ashley at Junior Worlds. She beat Rachael again at World Team Trophy. Caroline and Rachael then both had a mediocre first Grand Prix event. Rachael then had a great event at Skate America while Caroline bombed at Skate Canada. Will Caroline be knocked down if favor of Rachael because of one event? ( See my comment right above this one. )

If the USFSA does exactly what they claim they will do ( What a crazy idea!! ) Caroline is actually at an advantage. She was top U.S. lady at 2 of the 5 critical events, which none of the other girls can claim.

Joesitz said:

Noted, but regardless, there have been exceptions to these Nationals' results of going to the Olys, so why this year should we take it as gospel? Should only one comp say "this is the finest Team we have?" I don't think any coach in any sport would agree to that. One chooses the proven best from as many sources as possible - not just n the last comp of the season.

!

Click to expand...

I wonder about your criteria and if it really fits a sport like figure skating?

Why should the OGM go to a skater who only wins at the Olympics? Using your logic couldn't we say that we have to consider what the skaters did over a year or two to determine who is worthy of being called "Olympic Champion?

That doesn't make sense and it would ruin the appeal of being an Olympic champion.

Nationals is the best and fairest test since it is the only time all of the contending skaters from the USA get to compete against each other.

I see no reason to penalize Caroline because her assignement to TEB was by far the toughest GP event. Likewise, I won't hold it against Rachael - who was protected and basically assured a GP medal and a great chance for a second medal - and yet failed to make the GPF.

Competition is competition. Being National champion means a heck of alot more than being the bronze medalist at NHK or the silver medalist at SA.

Because Nationals is the most pressure packed competition these skaters face all season and the only time they all competet against each other it is the best way to decide who makes the National team.

Your system has merits too, but it means there would no longer be a meaningful National championship. That imo would be like putting a dagger through the heart of skating in the USA.

For me, there is nothing like Nationals and I hope we continue to select our National teams based on how the skaters perform there.

BTW, it has been mentioned the skaters prefer it this way - and any competitor would rather have a chance to win a spot - as opposed to leaving it up to backroom dealing and politics. That may be good for other Federations but I like our system better.