Which US ladies get to skate in the senior GP

I know Nationals just ended but I'm curious as to who from the US gets to skate in the senior GP. Are the top ten from nationals guaranteed two spots? What about Gao who finished 11th, does she get a spot? Will Karen Chen be able to skate in the senior GP or will she have to stay in the Junior GP?

I don't think that's announced for awhile. Seemed to me like it was in the summer or late spring. I sincerely hope Gao does not get an assignment. She really hasn't done anything to earn one and there are girls/ladies coming up that would profit from the experience of international competition.

It won't be out for awhile. But the rules, for this season at least, can be found in this PDF.

The over-simplified answer is skaters get slots based on there rank on the prior year's season best, their rank and world's invitation by hosts, and assignments of slots by their own federation.

Current season best list can be found here.

In addition, there are only 18 possible slots at most for US ladies (3 skater limit per country per event in each discipline), so the top 10 at Nationals, say, are definitely not guaranteed 2 each.

US Ladies currently in the top 24 on the ISU World Ranking List (will change after Euros/4CC):
3 Ashley Wagner - going to Worlds, will retain or improve rank
5 Gracie Gold - going to Worlds and 4CC, will retain or improve rank
12 Courtney Hicks - not going to Worlds or 4CC, will drop, but probably not out of the top 24
15 Samantha Cesario - going to 4CC, can retain rank or drop slightly, should stay in top 24
21 Mirai Nagasu - not going to Worlds or 4CC, probably will drop out of the top 24
22 Polina Edmunds - going to Worlds and 4CC, will retain or improve rank
25 Christina Gao - not going to Worlds or 4CC, will drop way down
46 Karen Chen - going to JW - will greatly improve her ranking; may get a host pick; if she medals, may get a GP invitation

Current Seasons Best List (will change after Euros/4CC)

5 191.16 Gracie Gold
7 189.50 Ashley Wagner
13 176.35 Polina Edmunds
15 174.58 Samantha Cesario
16 174.51 Courtney Hicks
23 169.41 Karen Chen
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27 165.88 Mirai Nagasu
30 163.68 Angela Wang
48 150.90 Ashley Cain
52 149.24 Leah Keiser
55 148.48 Mariah Bell
59 148.08 Amber Glenn
61 147.51 Christina Gao
67 144.89 Bradie Tennell

All of the top 24 on the SB list except Hicks are going to ISU championships and have a chance to improve their SB ranking; Hicks probably is high enough to stay in the top 24 after the ISU championships are over.

If Gold, Wagner or Edmunds finishes top 12 at Worlds, they are guaranteed two events each. Otherwise, those in the top 24 on either or both lists are guaranteed at least one GP event. Those who are not in the top 24 on either list but are close and have received invitations every year (e.g. Nagasu) are guaranteed nothing, but might get an invitation. Those in the top 75 on the SB list can be alternates and may have a shot at an event if there is a vacancy due to withdrawal. Obviously, the closer a skater is to the top of the SB list, the likelier that skater will be chosen to fill a vacancy.

I do hope that Karen Chen will get at least one or two GP assignments. By than she will be old enough to compete. She needs the International Exposure and how she stands against the Worlds best.

With help from ChuckM who did a lot of the legwork above (THANK YOU!) this is how it will *probably* break down,using what we know at this time. However, things can definitely change after 4CCs/Worlds

Certain to have 2 spots each barring implosion or needing to WD from worlds for some reason:
-Gold
-Wagner

May or may not have 2 spots based on Worlds depending how she skates there, but almost certain to get 2 spots either way:
-Edmunds

Also very likely to get 2 spots one way or another, guaranteed 1 (I view it as VERY unlikely either can be bumped off both the SB and WR list):
-Hicks
-Ceasrio

Probably guaranteed 1 if skates well at JW, and likely to somehow get 2 as I think the US would use its host pick on her if necessary:
-Chen

Very likely to get 1 off the substitutes list (or in Nagasu's case guaranteed if she manages to hold onto her WR in the top 24 by the skin of her teeth which is possible but probably unlikely)
-Nagasu
-Wang

It looks like the rest will have to wait and hope. There is a possibility that the others listed above by chuckm will get off the substitutes list but there are only 4 spots for them assuming I am right about the people above getting the number of slots I guess they will, since there are only 18 slots for Americans. In addition, Nagasu and/or Wang could get 2 slots somehow and further narrow the window of opportunity for other Americans.

ETA: I kind of want to do this for the Russians now. They are an even bigger talent pool/mess than the USA...

For Russians I imagine it would be Liza, Elena R, Anna, Julia, Alena, Adelina, Evgenia with two each, that leaves only four possible slots (two more if Adelina doesn't skate).

drivingmissdaisy said:

For Russians I imagine it would be Liza, Elena R, Anna, Julia, Alena, Adelina, Evgenia with two each, that leaves only four possible slots (two more if Adelina doesn't skate).

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Don't forget Serefima. She is high on the SB list and not too far down the WR either.

Russian ladies on the WR and SB lists (before Euros and 4CC)

WR:
2 Lipnitskaia - done for the year; may drop a bit
4 Tuktamysheva - doing Euros and Worlds; may pass Julip
6 Sotnikova - 0 this year; will drop way down after 2013 data out and 2014 data goes to 70% of value
7 Radionova - doing Euros and Worlds; will go up
8 Pogorilaya - doing Euros; depending on Euros, may do Worlds. Should retain spot
13 Leonova - done for year; may slip a bit but should remain in top 24
29 Sakhanovich - doing JW; should move up into top 24
30 Medvedeva - doing JW; should move up into top 24
47 Sotskova - doing JW; probably won't move up into top 24

SB:
1 Radionova
2 Tuktamysheva
3 Sakhanovich
4 Pogorilaya
6 Medvedeva
7 Leonova
9 Lipnitskaya
14 Sotskova
--------------
26 Artemieva
34 Proklova
40 Kaiumova
43 Stavitskaia
46 Pervushkina
60 Iushenko

All of the Russian ladies in the top 24 on the WR list are also top 24 on the SB list except Sotnikova; the JW trio are all in the top 24 on the SB list and could go even higher on that list. Sotskova, who probably won't make top 24 on the WR list, is covered on the SB list.

Note that even if Sotnikova falls out of the top 24, she would be regarded as a returning OGM and would automatically get 2 GPs if she wanted them.

I think Artemieva might get GP invitations as a substitute. The others who aren't in the top 24 on the SB list might be substitutes or go back to the JGP if age eligible. Proklova has been injured and may return to the JGP.

Figure 8's said:

I do hope that Karen Chen will get at least one or two GP assignments. By than she will be old enough to compete. She needs the International Exposure and how she stands against the Worlds best.

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Agreed. She's very deserving of it too.