2016-2017 State of U.S. Men Figure Skating

andyjo24 said:

But you have to note that Jason probably wouldn't have placed in the last group in the FS at Worlds, which would have probably lowered his PCS. Plus, TCC scores were overly inflated even more so than Worlds, which was already inflated.

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Adam managed to score 178+ for his FS with 1 downgraded quad attempt at Worlds skating in the penultimate flight, given that, I don't think it's unreasonable that Jason could have scored a 181 like he did at TCC, it's only 3 points higher and Jason tends to have slightly higher PCS and GOE than Adam. So, even with Jason skating in the penultimate group, it does seem likely that he would have finished in the 3rd-5th place range at Worlds with his TCC skates.

Not to argue Jason's scores at all, but my understanding is that the tech panel for everything except dance at TCC had two Americans on it. Which is--at the very least--unusual. Also, didn't he try the quad in all his early international competitions this season? (After all, that was the point. To try it while it was still early in the season). We know he can score better when he has a clean skate than when he does a messy performance without getting credit for the quad.

The TCC scores don't count, and they don't count for a reason. The inflation there was crazy.

Ice Dance said:

Not to argue Jason's scores at all, but my understanding is that the tech panel for everything except dance at TCC had two Americans on it. Which is--at the very least--unusual. Also, didn't he try the quad in all his early international competitions this season? (After all, that was the point. To try it while it was still early in the season). We know he can score better when he has a clean skate than when he does a messy performance without getting credit for the quad.

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I just looked them up, I don't see that at all? Unless you count Peter Cain as American because he's Ashley Cain's dad (but he's technically not).

karne said:

The TCC scores don't count, and they don't count for a reason. The inflation there was crazy.

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FWIW, there are plenty of competitions that were inflated that DID count. Hello, Mondovian Ornament and Golden Spin!

Mordovian Ornament: I'd forgotten about that one! Didn't basically every lady with a pulse get a crazy score there? And I'm sorry, Worlds Dance scores were pulled by Santa out of his bag. I don't think Jason's TCC score is so much more inflated than those. When I look at Mrs. P's excellent stat gathering, for me it's the one *with* TCC that counts...

But come September, let the new stat gathering begin!

Mrs. P said:

Ladies and gentlemen, your U.S. Men's dark horse, Mr. Tim Dolensky.

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I think this is Tim's third season being called a dark horse... is it time to just promote him up passed dark horse as he really has been simmering for awhile and still showing growth. I don't think he is a dark horse anymore he is a contender at this point. Not many of us would be shocked to see him do well or have a breakout season, more likely many would be pleasantly surprised because we have all see the potential and possibility.


Also... THANK YOU TIM for doing your part to show the world that men can get quads past their high school years. Tim will be 24 this summer, some see this as past prime, but I think that is foolish. Men's skaters can and do grow and improve in their twenties. Timothy is progressing, not regressing... something all skaters should keep in mind.

StitchMonkey said:

I think this is Tim's third season being called a dark horse... is it time to just promote him up passed dark horse as he really has been simmering for awhile and still showing growth. I don't think he is a dark horse anymore he is a contender at this point. Not many of us would be shocked to see him do well or have a breakout season, more likely many would be pleasantly surprised because we have all see the potential and possibility.


Also... THANK YOU TIM for doing your part to show the world that men can get quads past their high school years. Tim will be 24 this summer, some see this as past prime, but I think that is foolish. Men's skaters can and do grow and improve in their twenties. Timothy is progressing, not regressing... something all skaters should keep in mind.

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I still am not ready to put him contender status yet. Last season was a breakout season for him, with his best U.S. Nationals finish and a great FS at Skate Canada, but I'd like see a few more good competitions from him in the fall before I put him among the contenders. He's in a similar position that Grant Hochstein was a year ago, in my view, and we saw how well that worked out. I'd love for him to get a Skate America host pick, but torn cause it would be great for Alexander Johnson to get it also.

Mrs. P said:

I still am not ready to put him contender status yet. Last season was a breakout season for him, with his best U.S. Nationals finish and a great FS at Skate Canada, but I'd like see a few more good competitions from him in the fall before I put him among the contenders. He's in a similar position that Grant Hochstein was a year ago, in my view, and we saw how well that worked out. I'd love for him to get a Skate America host pick, but torn cause it would be great for Alexander Johnson to get it also.

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I half want USFSA to not send any seeded USA skaters to Skate America just so we can free up the space for people like Alex and Timothy.

I agree "contender" is probably too strong a word... we need something between dark horse and contender. Maybe a sparkly horse? I.e. still a horse that is trying to break into the big leagues... but has our attention. Really Tim doing well this season, would not be coming out of no where... so i struggle to call him a dark horse. I think bright horse might be a good fit for someone in his situation.

Adam landed some wonderful quads in practice at worlds! It can be done

StitchMonkey said:

I half want USFSA to not send any seeded USA skaters to Skate America just so we can free up the space for people like Alex and Timothy.

I agree "contender" is probably too strong a word... we need something between dark horse and contender. Maybe a sparkly horse? I.e. still a horse that is trying to break into the big leagues... but has our attention. Really Tim doing well this season, would not be coming out of no where... so i struggle to call him a dark horse. I think bright horse might be a good fit for someone in his situation.

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Semantics, clearly, but he is a dark horse for the podium. He's even more of a darker horse internationally. He was in 7th at Nationals, squarely just outside of it.

georgia said:

Adam landed some wonderful quads in practice at worlds! It can be done

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Adam is also one of the least injured skaters out there. I am really starting to wonder if his stubbornness allows him to listen to his body more and it is working in his favor longevity wise. He is doing something right, across more than one coach. He really should be getting credit for finding a way to stay competitive, keep growing, and stay healthy. That is a balance that is very hard for skaters to find and he really should be commended for it.

Adam's progress on the 4Z may be too slow for some. But it is steady. I really don't mind him attempting it. He has proven that a mistake on it does not affect the rest of the program, and has proven that he is staying within his physical limits/safety range. As long as the skater is safe, and moves on from mistakes... i am happy to let them attempt whatever they want... especially if they are making progress.

georgia said:

Adam landed some wonderful quads in practice at worlds! It can be done

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And Josh Farris has been landing wonderful quads in practice since he was about 14, meanwhile in competition he's only landed 3 (2 with glitches on the landing). Doing a jump in practice is very different from doing it in competition...

Josh might need a host pick for Skate America, too.

I really wonder which US guys will be chosen for Skate America.

Max, Adam and Grant are all guaranteed two GP spots. Normally the US champion would go to SA, but because it's in Chicago, Jason also seems like a natural choice, and he only has one guaranteed spot. But does USFS want to put Jason and Adam against each other so early in the season? What about Max, the defending SA Champ - will they choose him so he can defend his title? Or Grant?

Then there are Ross, Nathan, and Tomoki, who are all guaranteed one, I think, and Tim Dolensky and Josh, (and Jeremy, perhaps) who have none (I think). Will Nathan and / or Josh be recovered enough to compete in late October? If so, will USFS offer one of them a host pick? What will they consider when assigning SA spots - are they aiming for two guys who can potentially win gold and silver there, giving them a decent chance of making the GPF? Do they want to sort out who our two strongest competitors are early in the season, hoping that those two guys will have strong seasons and medal or place high enough at Worlds to get three spots for the all important Olympic year? Do they just want to push certain guys? What do you guys think? Is it a mini bloodbath in the making?

For me it's further complicated by the question of how judges will award PCS and GOE next season. Now that we've seen the first 200+ freeskate, 300+ total score, quad flip, and 4 quad free skates, will we continue to see high TES linked closely with high (perhaps higher than deserved in some cases) PCS? I'm not sure if I'm just dumb or if the judges are sending mixed messages. For example, Boyang's PCS rose quickly starting at COC, but at Worlds and TCC it started coming back down to earth, even though PCS for others at those comps was quite high. He won bronze anyway. Adam and Jason both put up monster scores at Worlds & TCC, respectively, without quads. But Shoma beat both of them at TCC. What does that mean for next season? What are the judges going to reward?

Thoughts?

My tinfoil hat is telling me that Skate America is going to be Adam, Nathan and either Alexander Johnson or Tim Dolensky but maybe Tomoki if he goes senior. I don't think he will, but if he does I think he will get it due to him being local.

My thinking is this. Max is nice... to the point of almost being too nice for his own good. If he gets a hint that trying to pick who goes to SA is an issue, I can see him being polite and stepping down from the running... I can see him taking a "I want to see new countries anyway and I already have been to/won SA" Max I can see being happy still with other assignments and that could cost him SA this year. Adam has shown in the past he will complain... while i want to be ok with complaining... i do somewhat dislike the idea of how it could play out in this case. Sadly I think Adam over Max may cause less friction. Which is sad, as i think Max has a good argument to deserve SA, but I don't see Max as wanting to have to make that argument for himself. I am not trying to call Max a pushover... but rather he seems the type to find conflict a waste of energy and he would rather just redirect it to a different more productive/positive option than argue.

I don't think Jason will get it. He has been at SA the past three years, it is fair to give others their chance. I also don't think he is in favor with USAFSA right now. While most of his fans are certain he will get two spots no problem. I don't think it will be SA. If he is wanted in other GPs, I think USFSA will go that route rather than want him at SA.

I think Nathan is the more likely next pick. I think it is clear USFSA wants to promote him, and if he makes a splash there, he can use it to generate momentum for the rest of the season. I also think there is an appeal in showing Nathan/Max/Raf all together. The question will be where his health is... and where everyone feels it needs to be for him to be "back". I kinda hope that neither USFSA or Nathan are setting a four quad free skate goal... I want Nathan to be nice to his body for lack of a better way to put it. At the same time... i am not sure Nathan would want to make his senior GP debut with less than 2 quads in the free... so who knows what will happen.

I think Alex might have the most likely shot at spot three. USFSA went with Ross last year and it looked a little like nationals was a factor... so i think Alex getting SA is the most likely...and similar. If he gets a different GP or has a poor summer, I think Tim is next in line and was next at US nationals. Tomoki is kinda a wild card. While I don't think he will go senior... and am not sure he should, I do think he would get the spot due to proximity, and the reality that inviting young cute skaters is appealing. I kinda hope he is at least invited to the exhibition and think that would be appropriate.

I think they will give Adam SA for sure (US Champ/highest placed at worlds, which is typical criteria), maybe Grant as well, and either Tim Dolensky or Alex Johnson for the host spot. (Last year they sent the gold & pewter medalists-Jason and Max-so I think they probably will do something similar again.)

I think Skate Canada could be Max, TEB Jason, maybe COC or NHK for Nathan (if he is healed)?

i'm a little confused - how much input do skaters have into USFS decisions about SA? When would Max have a chance to defer and what did Adam complain about?

By the way, Adam has been to Skate America three times, most recently in 2013; amazingly, he's been on the GP since 2008. But I can see him wanting it again this year, and I can definitely see Raf politicking for Nathan, if he's healthy.

ETA: why Alex Johnson? He's a gorgeous skater but he didn't really do much last year?

Tavi... said:

i'm a little confused - how much input do skaters have into USFS decisions about SA? When would Max have a chance to defer and what did Adam complain about?

By the way, Adam has been to Skate America three times, most recently in 2013; amazingly, he's been on the GP since 2008. But I can see him wanting it again this year, and I can definitely see Raf politicking for Nathan, if he's healthy.

ETA: why Alex Johnson? He's a gorgeous skater but he didn't really do much last year?

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Alex Johnson had a great result at Nationals (6th) which bears a lot of weight with host picks. And generally they usually extend a host pick to someone in that 4-6 at Nationas range who isn't a guaranteed a pick otherwise.

USFSA will have to invite one of the 4-6th skater at WC this year, i.e. Adam, Patrick and kolyada. Patrick will get SC and Kolyada will get COR. So Adam will get SA. I think USFSA would rather invite Adam than either of Patrick or Kolyada.

Nathan is only guaranteed 1 GP. If he doesn't get a 2nd GP invitation, I think he will get the host pick. It doesn't make sense to invite the 6th finisher at national instead of the bronze medalist as host pick.